014
FXUS64 KSJT 171818
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
118 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Temperatures this afternoon are around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
yesterday afternoon north of I-10, thanks to the clear skies and
increased sunshine. We could see a few isolated storms late this
afternoon and evening as the upper level short wave moves east over
our area. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely be in our
southern counties, near I-10, with a smaller chance of storms
further north. It is May in Texas, so we can`t completely rule out
severe thunderstorms, but the chance for severe weather is lower
today compared to yesterday, and most of the activity (if any
develops) is expected to remain below severe thresholds. Winds will
become light and start to switch back to the south this evening and
overnight as a high pressure builds at the surface to our southeast.
Temperatures tomorrow will continue to increase as an upper level
ridge begins to build over the area. Highs will be almost 10 degrees
above normal, with values approaching 100 in some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Hot and dry conditions will be the theme for much of the long term
forecast, at least through Wednesday next with the approach of
another cold front on Wednesday and upper-level disturbance on
Thursday bringing an increased chance for showers and
thunderstorms mid-to-late next week. High temperatures across the
weekend are likely to range in the upper 90s to near 103 in some
areas for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. General upper level
ridging will build across the area through Tuesday next week,
with breezy southerly surface flow persisting across much of the
region through Wednesday morning.

What looks to be a weaker cold front will track through West
Central Texas on Wednesday, mainly moderating temperatures but
potentially bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the eastern
portions of our area. By Thursday, an upper-level disturbance
will track from west to east across the area and aide in the
development of some showers and thunderstorms across much of West
Central Texas. Currently, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty
in both of these scenarios, especially with regards to coverage
and strength, but is it something that most models are beginning
to agree on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Expect MVFR/IFR ceilings at most the terminals for a few hours
this morning. Also, some patchy fog is possible. Expect VFR
conditions to return from mid morning through the rest of the TAF
forecast. Hi-Res models are indicating isolated thunderstorms
along the I-10 corridor during the late afternoon and early
evening, but will keep thunder out of the southern terminals for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  93  68  96 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  59  98  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    61  98  70  99 /  20   0   0   0
Brownwood   60  92  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  61  96  69  98 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       60  97  69  97 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       61  93  68  93 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...21