Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 221835
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
235 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE CHILLY TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING FROST, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
DRY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH COOL WEATHER ON SATURDAY THEN A WARMING
TREND ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 SATURDAY WILL RISE
INTO THE 70S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
220 PM UPDATE...

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT REMAINS HOW COLD WILL WE GET. IN THE SHORT
TERM A FEW OF US WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE IN NEPA IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD
FRONT, FROM ROUGHLY NEAR SCRANTON SOUTH. ALSO SOME SHOWERS NOW
OVER NORTHERN NY MAY BRUSH BY NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH
EVENING. OTHERWISE DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE AND A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK WITH OUR GOING FORECAST OF WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE AREA, WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER A FREEZE
WARNING OUTSIDE OF OUR USUALLY WARMER SPOTS (NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES/WYOMING VALLEY OF NEPA). DESPITE THE OVERALL FORECAST BEING
IN GOOD SHAPE, FINE DETAILS WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH TONIGHT
IN TERMS OF JUST HOW COLD WE GET. FOR ONE GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY
COLD (MAV SHOWS 27 AT KELM WITH THE MET SHOWING 24!). WHILE OUR
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE 20S (LIKE KELM AND
THE CATSKILLS/ONEIDA COUNTY), I FEEL GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO
COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 31 TO 35 DEGREE READINGS MORE LIKELY.
BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES ON THE NAM SHOW THAT OUR AIR FOR SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE COMING FROM JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. THESE
LOCALES HELD IN THE 30S THIS MORNING AND WITH THIS TYPE OF
TRAJECTORY, DEW POINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WHAT MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES. AT THE END OF THE DAY HOWEVER WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS, A CLEAR SKY, AND 850S BELOW ZERO TONIGHT, ANY SENSITIVE
PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED UP. WE WILL BE POSTING A VIDEO ON
FACEBOOK AND YOUTUBE THIS EVENING ON SOME TIPS FOR PROTECTING YOUR
PLANTS.

SATURDAY LOOKS GREAT. AFTER A COOL START HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE US WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS
SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S BY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY THE LAKE PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WX...SFC HIPRES HAS SLID EAST
SAT NGT AND TTHOUGH CHILLY...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS THE RISK
OF FROST DESPITE THE CLR SKIES. TEMPS REBOUND ON SUNDAY TO NEAR
NRML AS SUN CONTS AND THE UPR RDG BLDS. SOME HI CLDS PSBL LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WRM FNT BEGINS TO MVE NEWRD.

LATE SUN NGT INTO MON STRENGTHENING COLD FNT NOW DRAPED OVER THE
AREA. SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT UP FLOW DVLPS NORTH OF THE AREA BLDG
HIPRES WHILE A LWR AND MID LVL SW FLOW CONTS TO STRENGTHEN
RESULTING IN A GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW TO DVLP SHWRS AND ISLTD TRWS.FNT
IS SLOW TO MVE MON AND SHD CONT THE PSBLTY OF PCPN THRU THE END OF
THE SHRT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FNT FNLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MON NGT LVG WRM AND HUMID AIR
OVER THE REGION. SW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
WHILE DAYTIME HTG HELPS DVLP LIFT SO DESPITE BEING UNDER HIPRES
THE RISK OF SHWRS AND TRWS WILL CONT INTO THE XTNDD PD.

REALLY LTL CHG THRU THE PD AS THE FNT OVER THE MIDWEST TRUDGES
VERY SLOWLY EAST. UPR RDG IN THE WRN ATLANTIC STUBBORNLY RESISTS
THE FNT AND SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHUNTS IT OFF TO THE NW. SO...
CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS CONTS INTO THU... WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
OVER THE WEST AND NRN ZONES. WHILE CONTG ABV NRML...TEMPS WILL
TEND TO FALL LTR IN THE PD AS A SLOW INCRS IN CLDS AND MOSITURE
WILL LIMT HTG.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  SCT TO BKN (ESPECIALLY
KBGM SOUTH) CLOUDS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AROUND 5KFT. SKC
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT MINS DO DROP BELOW CROSSOVER
TEMP AT KELM SO FOG POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS WE WILL BE TOO DRY FOR FOG. IF WE HAD FOG THE TIMING
WOULD BE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.


.OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT-SUN...MAINLY VFR.

SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ038>040-043.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     PAZ044-047-048-072.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ009-017-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ015-016.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN


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