Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 030602
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
202 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AIR AND SHOWERS IN THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
935 PM UPDATE...NEXT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IN MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN PA ATTM. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IN THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA PRIMARILY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO DELAY THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
THIS AFTN/S WV IS EXITING TO THE EAST ATTM
ALLOWING A BUBBLE SFC HIPRES TO BLD INTO THE AREA. OLD TROF
LINE/FNT REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE SE ZONES AND MAY FOCUS A FEW
SHWRS OVER THAT AREA THRU THE NGT. NOTHING STRONG ENUF TO DRY OUT
THE MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE INV SO XPCT CLDS...DRIZZLE...AND
PTCHY FOG TO CONT OVRNGT.

LATE TNGT...YET ANOTHER WV RUNS UP THE BNDRY AND SHD INCRS THE
CVRG OF SHWRS OVER THE SERN ZONES AFT MIDN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SW FLOW CONTS THRU THE SHRT TERM WITH A LRG UPR TROF DIGGING OVER
THE CNTRL LAKES. THIS WILL CONT THE UNSETTLED WX AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA. OLD FNTL BBNDRY DRIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE SE AND SHD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER CONV BASED PCPN WITH A
DEEP SWLY ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE OPEN GULF.

OVER THE FCST AREA...FRCG IS WEAKER BUT PLENTY OF AVBL MOISTURE
UNDER THE UPR LOW WHICH PROVIDED INSTABILITY WITH IT/S COLD POOL.
SO...XPCT SCT SHWRS TO CONT THRU THE PD WITH NO STRONG SFC OR UPR
FEATURES TO TRIGGER ENHANCED PD OF PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT A MEAN TROF / BLOCKY PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS
WEEK. EVEN AS THE CYCLONE FINALLY DRIFTS OFF THE COAST EARLY
SUNDAY, ANOTHER DEEP TROF OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL ROTATE TOWARD
WESTERN NY.

THE RESULT WILL BE A GENERALLY COOL AND SHOWERY FORECAST, WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY, WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE MOST PROMISING DAY
FOR NICE, MAY- LIKE WEATHER. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE MVFR CIGS
EXCEPT IFR LIKELY FOR KITH/KBGM. ALSO, EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
FOR KAVP.

CIGS LIFT FOR TUESDAY WITH SKIES GENERALLY REMAINING BROKEN TO OVERCAST.
EXPECT MVFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST FOR KAVP WITH KBGM LIFTING TO
MVFR. REMAINING SITES SEE VFR BY AFTERNOON.

WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

WED-THU...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOWER CEILINGS/SHOWERS.

FRI...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP/PCF
AVIATION...PCF


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