Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 232313
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
613 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected through Friday, with high pressure
along the east coast, as our main weather influence. An
approaching cold front, will bring our next chance for rain
showers on Saturday. Colder air will filter into the region, for
the latter part of the holiday weekend, to bring some lake
effect snow showers and flurries.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
615 pm update...
No significant changes made to the quiet forecast.

220 pm update... As an upper-level short-wave tracks across
CNY/NEPA tonight, variable cloud cover will continue (thickest
over our far northern zones in CNY, with generally partly cloudy
skies down over NEPA). Marginal moisture supply and some lake
enhancement via a low-level westerly flow, could bring some
light snow showers or flurries down into the southern Tug Hill
region. Elsewhere, it should remain dry. Lows by daybreak should
range from the mid 20s-lower 30s.

Friday into Friday evening, a fairly deep SW flow develops,
leading to strong low-level warm advection. Any residual cloud
cover early Friday across portions of CNY should quickly
dissipate, leading to a generally sunny and mild day. Highs
Friday afternoon should climb well into the 40s, with a few
normally warmer spots in the Finger Lakes and Lake Ontario plain
regions approaching 50 degrees.

Friday night, moisture will gradually increase from NW-SE, well
in advance of an approaching cold front in the Ohio Valley and
trailing upper-level trough. This should lead to thickening
clouds over time. It`s possible that a few showers could sneak
into the western Finger Lakes region towards daybreak Saturday,
although it seems that most of the precipitation will hold off
until during the day Saturday. Given continued warm advection,
temperatures will not fall much during the night, generally
staying above the freezing mark. As a result, any light showers
that do develop prior to daybreak, should be in the form of
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A cyclone tracking through Ontario Province will pull warm and
moist air into NY and PA on Saturday. Rain showers will
overspread the region through the daytime hours, though the
ECMWF in particular has pulled back on the QPF and slowed the
timing.

Maximum temperatures Saturday are progged in the middle-40s, but
there is upside to these readings if the precipitation holds off
longer than anticipated.

Much cooler air will pour down from Canada behind the cold
front, setting off lake effect snow showers late Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers and flurries will continue Sunday into
early Monday, despite temperatures aloft not being particularly
cold and the boundary layer remaining dry. Light snowfall
amounts are forecast.

Ridging aloft will bring milder temperatures for Monday through
late Tuesday. A storm system well north into Ontario will drag
another cold front across NY/PA on Wednesday with rain showers
changing over to a mix of ran and snow showers Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected through 00Z Sat. Brief MVFR cigs
at KSYR and KITH this evening and a brief period of MVFR
ceilings may impact KRME early Friday morning.

Surface winds will stay near or below 5 kt through tonight, with
winds picking up significantly on Friday from the S-SW. Gusts of
20-25 kt are possible by midday.

Outlook...

Friday night...VFR.

Saturday...Possible restrictions in rain showers.

Saturday night into Monday...Lake effect snow showers likely
causing at least some restrictions, mainly KSYR and KRME.

Most of Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...BJT/MLJ
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...BJT/MLJ



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