Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 281356
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
956 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
CANADA, BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NY ON SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...

I INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST (PIKE COUNTY). VISIBLE SATELLITE CONFIRMS
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THUS FAR THE RESULT HAS BEEN A MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKY, WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF SUNSHINE. THROUGH AFTERNOON WE
MAY SEE MORE BREAKS OF SUN BUT DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS, ANY SUN WOULD ONLY HELP TO CREATE MORE STRATOCU. IT
PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO 21Z THAT WE SEE MORE
APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW...


HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER STRATOCU MAY BE
AN ISSUE THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS IF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
TO BE BELIEVED. COMBINED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL ATMOSPHERE
(925MB TEMPS 13C-15C), THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COULD SUPPRESS
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS TO ONLY THE UPPER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NY STATE, WITH LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST FROM THE TWIN
TIERS DOWN THROUGH THE WYOMING VALLEY.

STILL COOL ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND IT IS LIKELY WE WILL BE STARTING
FROM A FAIRLY COOL TEMP AFTER DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. LIGHT WINDS
AND GOOD RADIATION. FORECASTING UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE
VALLEY LOCALES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CLEAR DAY TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. STRATOCU DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE ON FRIDAY AND
THERE IS SOME WARMING ALOFT, SO TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN NY STATE. STICKING TO CHC POPS NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RH VALUES REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE.

THE CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS INTO LOWER ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SWING A FRONT ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
ORIENTED THE POPS MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 AM UPDATE...
CWA WL BE ON PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PD.
AS SRLY FLOW WORKS NORTH FM A WIDE-OPEN GOM HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY
FOR SUNDAY. AS MAIN LOW HEADS ACRS SRN CANADA EXPECT JUST CHC POPS
FOR SUN NGT, HIGHEST ACRS NRN ZONES. SRLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES AHD
OF NEXT FRONTAL BNDRY MVG THRU TUESDAY AND HV BUMPED POPS JUST A
TAD FOR THIS TIME PD. HIPRES BUILDS IN LATE TUE NGT WITH DRY WX
EXPECTED THRU END OF LONG TERM.

AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT TEMPS WL RUN SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABV SEASONAL
VALUES UNTIL FROPA BY MID-WEEK. FOLLOWING CDFNT PASSAGE ON TUE
NGT TEMPS WL DROP DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES THRU THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPED OVER TERMINALS OVERNIGHT IN MOIST LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS. CIGS RANGE FROM LOW VFR TO MVFR, TO EVEN OCCASIONAL IFR
AT RME. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR BETWEEN 12Z AND
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 16Z AT ITH AND BGM, WHEREAS MOST OTHER
RESTRICTIONS WILL ONLY LAST THROUGH 14Z. AFTER CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR
THIS MORNING EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AFTER 18Z THEN BECOME
CLEAR BY 00Z. AT ELM EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z FRIDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. WINDS
BECOME LGT/VRB TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

RI...VFR.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA-
TSRA MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.