Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 242048
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
348 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will continue to bring snow and mixed precipitation
across parts of the area late this afternoon before moving out
this evening. After this storm passes, Wednesday will be quiet
and dry before a weaker trough moves through Wednesday night into
Thursday with rain and snow showers. Colder temperatures follow
for late week through the weekend with lake effect snow showers.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A coastal storm centered south of Long Island continues to impact
parts of the area. As of mid afternoon, two areas of
concern...the first is our far eastern zones from Wayne and Pike counties
in PA north to Sullivan, Delaware, and Otsego Counties in central
NY. These areas in our east are along the western edge of bands of
precipitation in warm advection pivoting west around the storm.
The thermal profile through the lowest several thousand feet in
this area continues to be very marginal so this means rain, sleet,
snow, and even some freezing rain will continue to be possible.
Surface temps are around or just above freezing so the best chance
for additional ice accretion on the order of a few hundredths of
an inch will be over the higher terrain. We keep Winter Weather Advisory
in effect until 7 pm for these areas at which time precip should
be pulling out as low moves east. Farther west, deformation zone
bands of snow are effecting the Finger Lakes region. Moderate to
heavy snow has been reported in some of these bands within the
past couple hours however expect precip rates to diminish and
bands to lift north through the late afternoon. At most, another
inch or two of snow will be possible in in a few spots. In
between, not much going on precip wise across central CWA in I-81
corridor and this will continue to be the case late this afternoon
with precip remaining mainly east and west of this area.

Heading into this evening, as mentioned, both areas of
precipitation will move out as the low pressure system moves
slowly north and east away from the area. By early Wednesday,
weak ridging will be moving into western PA however expect
overcast skies to persist due to low level moisture trapped below
an inversion. Lows will be mainly in the upper 20s so roads could
still be slick as any lingering areas of snow and slush freeze.

Wednesday shaping up to be a quiet but mainly dry day as weak
ridge crests over the area. However, mainly cloudy skies persist
for most areas under inversion with best chances for some sun
being over NE PA. Highs will generally range from the mid 30s to
low 40s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 pm Update...

Wednesday night rain showers move in ahead of a strong cold front.
Most of the surface temperatures then will be above freezing, but
some flurries and sleet is possible with no accumulation. With the
first main front in the morning Thursday temperatures will be
nondiurnal. Despite that highs will be around 40 except in the far
south which should be mid 40s. With cold air advection and low
levels falling below zero in the afternoon, precipitation will
change over to snow by evening. With weak support Thursday night
precip amounts will be light into Friday. CAA continues but flow
is close to west keeping snow showers in central NY

Thursday will be a transition day with the colder air moving in
slowly from the west. As 850mb temps drop to -2 to -4 deg C...the
rain will begin to mix with snow...especially in the higher
elevations through Thur afternoon. The mix of rain and snow will not
result in much snowfall accumulation...and only a trace to around a
couple tenths of an inch of liquid...with the highest rainfall amts
expected in central NY. The low level flow wavers between short
waves. Northwest flow on Thursday night shifts to west Friday. The
best lake effect will be in northern Oneida County this period
starting Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 pm Update...

Temperatures this period closer to average for late January. The
east coast will be under a broad upper level trough. Deep
northwest flow with lake effect snow into Monday before drying out
Tuesday. 850mb temps bottom out at -12c on Sunday. Sunday looks
like the best shot of widespread snow showers as the flow goes
northwest. Before this the low level flow is closer to west (280
degrees) putting most of the significant snow into only Oneida
County NY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lingering snow will continue to bring visby restrictions this
afternoon to some sites before improvement this evening.
Specifically, for KITH/KSYR, expect IFR to below alt min IFR this
afternoon. Some improvement occurs by this evening as snow ends
but expect IFR cigs to linger for these sites until 6z for KSYR
and midday Wednesday for KITH when cigs lift to MVFR. For KELM,
expect MVFR cigs to predominate through TAF period however brief
IFR visby restrictions possible this afternoon in snow. For KBGM,
mainly IFR cigs until improvement to low end MVFR Wednesday
morning. Finally, for KRME and KAVP, expect fuel alternate MVFR
cigs to predominate most of the TAF period with a brief period of
IFR likely this evening for KRME. KAVP should see cigs break up
and lift to VFR tomorrow morning.


N/NW winds remain around 10 knots with some higher gusts up to 20
knots.


OUTLOOK...

Wednesday...Generally VFR conditions with possible restrictions
in rain showers later in the day.

Thursday - Sunday...Restrictions possible in snow
showers...mainly at KRME and KSYR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ040-
     048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...PCF/RRM


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