Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 272052
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
452 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure remains in control with above normal
temperatures and modest humidity. A weak cold front moves into
the region Thursday...which may help to fire some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure continues to keep the region dry and the
diurnal cumulus will dissipate quickly close to sunset. Mainly
clear skies and light winds will allow for another night of river
valley fog overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models in pretty good agreement allowing for strong forecast
confidence for the period. Weak cold front will drop into the
region Thursday and allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region...should not start to fire up
until early to mid afternoon. The chance of precip will linger
into Friday...with the best chances for more than a tenth to a
quarter inch of rain will be across NE PA. Locally heavier amounts
more likely in NE PA as atmosphere gets pretty juicy down that way
with PWATs well above seasonal levels. The front looks to push
south and east by late Friday afternoon or early evening allowing
for drier and slightly cooler conditions for Friday evening and
Saturday. Though with that being said...the temps will still be
slightly above seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Medium range models are in fair agreement through the extended
forecast. A weak upper level wave combined with surface low
pressure in the mid atlantic region will bring a chance for
showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday
night. Monday through Wednesday looks mainly dry as upper level
heights build and surface high pressure remains in the vicinity.

Temperatures will start at seasonal levels over the weekend then
warm back above normal early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Through
early evening few/sct fair weather cumulus around 4k ft. Overnight
just scattered cirrus with valley fog likely. Light winds and
mainly clear skies overnight will lead to valley fog across the
twin tiers included MVFR occasionally IFR conditions at KELM
between 09Z-13Z. Thursday morning as a weak cold front approaches
the region mid/high level clouds will increase. After 18Z,
scattered to isolated convection is possible across the terminals
with brief restrictions in any convection.

West/northwest winds around 5-8 knots becoming light and variable
this evening then southwest around 5 knots on Thursday.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday afternoon-Friday night...Scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any
convection.

Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night through Sunday night...Scattered to isolated showers
and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR but brief restrictions in any
convection.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABS/TAC
NEAR TERM...ABS
SHORT TERM...ABS
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM


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