Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 200541
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
141 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CLOUDS MONDAY AND
BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS PROGRESSED EVEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED...YET
HIGH CLOUDS ALSO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SYRACUSE AND
PENN YAN ARE STILL NEAR 40 DEGREES...BUT ITHACA NORWICH AND CORTLAND
HAVE ALREADY HIT FREEZING. WITH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASING...FROST IN YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA
SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST THUS STILL SEE NO NEED FOR COUNTY WIDE
FROST ADVISORY. SOME OF THE ELEVATED VALLEYS AND DRAINAGES IN
SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONONDAGA STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SOME
FROST...YET IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED SOME THIS
SEASON.

640 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED BASED MOSTLY ON CLOUD
EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY MOHAWK VALLEY TO WESTERN CATSKILLS WHERE
STRATOCUMULUS HAS BEEN HANGING TOUGH. THAT BEING SAID...NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL REPRESENT A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CLOUD COVER /AND A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING/ BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING
STRATOCUMULUS...AND APPROACHING CIRRUS OF NEXT SYSTEM. THEN
OVERNIGHT...THOSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN WHILE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALSO INCREASES TOWARDS DAWN...WHICH AT THIS POINT
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SCATTERED FROST IN THE
LAKE PLAIN ZONES /YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA/. FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...AMPLE FROST EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF LAKE CLDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE WRN CATS. XPCT A SLOW EROSION OF THE CLDS EVEN AS SOME HI
CLDS FROM THE LAKES LOW DRFT IN OVRNGT. HAVE CONTD WITH THE FREEZE
WARNING TO THE SOUTH AS THAT AREA HAS CLRD AND DEW PTS ARE IN THE
MID 20S. OTR ACTIVE GROWING AREA OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES SHD BE
SOMEWHAT PROTECTED BY THE BREEZE OFF THE LAKE AND WITH PTCHY CLDS
MVG THRU. STILL...SOME SCT FROST LIKELY UP THERE AS WELL...ESP
AWAY FROM THE LAKE OVER THE HIER ELEVATIONS.

FEW SPRINKLES THIS AFTN SHD END QUICKLY THIS EVE AS STRONG DVM
ALONG WITH WEAKEN FLOW OVERCOMES MRGNL INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UNFORTUNATE WEEK OF WX AHD AS A CLIPPER CLOSES OFF OVER THE EST
CST.

SFC HIPRES RDG SLIDES EAST MON ALLOWING WEAK OVERRUNNING TO DVLP.
AT FIRST...RISING HGTS AND THE SLOW MVMT OF THE DEEPENING LOW
KEEPS PCPN WEST OF THE AREA...GNRLY THRU 00Z TUE AND EVEN LATER IN
THE EAST. ONCE IT GETS IN HERE THOUGH...IT WILL LAST THRU THE SHRT TERM
INTO THE XTNDD.

TEMPS WILL BE BLO AVG THRU THE PD WITH THE NE FLOW...CLDS AND
PCPN. HWVR...WITH THE LOW CLSD OFF...IT/S UNABLE TO TAP ANY REAL
COLD AIR...SO DESPITE THE PTRN AND PSN OF THE LOWS...ONLY LIQUID
PCPN XPCTD THRU THE EVENT.

QPF AMTS SHD BE RELATIVELY LGT AND THE TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE DEEP
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WELL EAT OF THE AREA INTO NEW ENGLAND. FCST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE UPR LOW AND LGTR SHWRY PCPN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 PM UPDATE...
UPR LOW WL HV CLOSED OFF OVR THE NY BIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS WL KEEP OUR WX PATTERN UNSETTLED THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK. 00Z EC MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN 12Z GFS WITH ANOTHER WV
DROPPING THRU ONTARIO OVR THE WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME, GFS
INDICATES UL RIDGING AND/OR ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE EXTNDD.

WITH PATTERN BEING UNSETTLED AND S/WV DETAILS MAKING ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS OVR PORTIONS OF
CWA NEARLY ALL PDS. THIS WL RESULT IN WIDE VARIATIONS IN TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE LONG TERM WITH GFS WARMING TEMPS ABV NORMAL AND
EURO INDICATING TEMPS BLO NORMAL. FOR NOW, HV SIDED WITH WPC
GUIDANCE INDICATING A COMPROMISE SOLN AND TRENDING TWD SEASONAL
VALUES THIS TIME OF YR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DATA COMMS OUTAGE AT THIS HOUR
WHICH IS LIMITING METARS. HOWEVER...A PHONE CHECK OF THE ASOS
CONFIRMS VFR ACROSS CNY/NEPA. VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS WITH TIME AS SFC
WARM FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND LAKE ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO. FOR THE MOST
PART...RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VSBY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AFTER 00Z-03Z IN THIS REGION.
MORE IMPACT FROM SHOWERS BECOMES MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z TUES AND
WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH LATER UPDATES.

WINDS LIGHT EARLY BECOMING S-SW 5-10 KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT THROUGH FRI...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IN LWR CIGS/-SHRA.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR...LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN IFR AT TIMES.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MDP
NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...JAB





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