Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 221913
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
313 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MUGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING, MUCH OF THE TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN-FREE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER, DRIER, AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
230 PM TUE UPDATE...

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MIXED OUT NOW. THE CAP REMAINS IN
CONTROL WITH LITTLE FORCING. WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UP TO
00Z THEN DRY INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE CUMULUS WILL PROBABLY
STRATIFY OUT AGAIN TONIGHT SO CONTINUING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS 65 TO
70. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE ON LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM TUE UPDATE...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A COLD FRONT WED PM.
LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. MOST LIKELY THE WORST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP AHEAD OF THIS
MIDDAY IN NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS OF NY. TEMPERATURES THERE WILL
GET INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BEFORE THE RAIN COOLS IT. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS THE AREA IN A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER. BIGGEST THREAT FROM DAMAGING WIND. WITH THE JUICY
AIRMASS AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS HAIL WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
GETTING BIG. BULK SHEAR IN THE 30S SO MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES. CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1K SO LIFT SHOULD BE GOOD...BUT IT IS TALL AND
SKINNY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MARGINAL. OTHER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES WITH CORFIDI VECTORS AROUND 10 KTS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS WILL NEED TO
WATCH HEAVY RAINERS ESPECIALLY IN NE PA AND CATSKILLS.

THE FRONT SHOULD BE ON IT WAY TO THE EAST COAST WED EVE LEAVING
THE CWA WITH DRY WEATHER LATE WED NGT THROUGH FRIDAY. EVEN WITH
THE COLD AIR ALOFT IT WILL BE TOO DRY TO GENERATE SHOWERS
THURSDAY. THU NGT AND FRI A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER OUR AREA EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE ENTIRE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER
THAN NORMAL BUT PLEASANT DRY SUMMER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
EXTNDD PORTION OF THE FCST WL START OFF WITH SFC HIPRES SHIFTING OFF
THE EAST COAST. RETURN FLOW MAY MAKE A RUN AT CWA DRG THE AFTN HRS
ON SAT, THO MAINLY ACRS THE SW ZONES. MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON EXACT LOCATION OF LOPRES SYSTEMS/FRONTAL BNDRYS IN BROAD
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL, APPEARS TO BE A VRY UNSETTLED PATTERN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. L/WV TROF EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF INTO UPR LOW
BY 12Z MONDAY AND HV CONTD CHC THUNDER THRU TUE MRNG. MAX TEMPS SHUD
BE IN THE UPR 70S AND MINS SHUD BE IN THE U50S/NR 60, DUE TO CONTD
CLD CVR AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z UPDATE...
SCT-BKN VFR DECK EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS IN MOIST AIRMASS. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT ELM AND AVP BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z
WED.

SW WINDS AROUND 5KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
WINDS BETWEEN 8-12KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY MID-MORNING AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT/THU...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHRA/TSRA. FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

SUN...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...PVN






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