Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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980
FXUS61 KBGM 280554
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
154 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like warmth and humidity will continue over the next
several days. Although much of the time looks rain free, hit and
miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms, are possible through
the long weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
855 PM update...Line of convection that moved through much of the
region late this afternoon and evening is now departing Sullivan
county. Isolated activity may still occur for the next couple of
hours primarily northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills
then the rest of the overnight period will be dry once the
atmosphere stabilizes. Included patchy valley fog overnight in the
western catskills, southern tier and northeast Pennsylvania due
to recent rainfall, higher dew points and weak mixing late
tonight.

3 PM update...

Isolated convection occurring now across the CWA. A warm humid
airmass with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s.
Good low level instability with 1 to 2k cape. Bulk shear weak and
wind fields are light. Weak forcing with diurnal heating and a
weak short wave. Convection will linger into evening but diminish
with the loss of heating.

Late tonight it should be dry. Low temperatures close to guidance
and in the low and mid 60s. Relative humidity will be close to 100
percent. Thick fog not to likely with convection spotty today,
ground dry and rivers cool.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM Update...

More of the same Saturday and Sunday. Diurnal convection with weak
forcing in a very warm humid airmass. Weak forcing under an upper
level trof. Wind fields weak Saturday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms with temperatures close to what we have today, 85
to 90. The highs today and tomorrow will be within 5 degrees of
records.

Sunday convection diurnal again but wind fields increase with
approaching upper level trof and short wave. Across the north pops
are at likely in the afternoon into the evening. With convection
sooner and more widespread high temps expected to be a few degrees
cooler.

Chance pops Sunday overnight with the surface cold front and
another short wave keeping the showers going into Monday. Midday
fropa will keep max temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight temps Sat and Sun night will remain in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 pm Update...

High pressure will build in from the west across the forecast area
early in the week with quiet weather conditions expected. The upper
ridge and surface high shift to the east by the middle of the week
prior to the next period of showers and storms along a slow-moving
cold front Thursday into the early part of the weekend.

High temperatures will remain warm and steady in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Overnight lows will also remain steady...dropping into
the mid to upper 50s through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Due to higher surface dew points and localized wet ground from
yesterday`s scattered showers/storms, light fog/haze will be
fairly widespread through about 12-13z (mostly MVFR restrictions).
The two most likely sites to experience a period of thicker
fog/IFR restrictions are KELM and KRME.

Otherwise, generally VFR/unrestricted conditions can be expected
for the remainder of the period. Once again, hit and miss showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated later this afternoon into the
early evening. If impacted by this activity, brief restrictions
could be expected. However, scattered coverage/uncertainty this
far out precludes such strict mention in the terminal forecasts.

Light winds early this morning, will become SW at 5-10 kt later
this morning through the afternoon. Winds will turn light again
after about 00z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday-Monday...Mostly VFR. Brief restrictions may occur in
showers/thunderstorms each afternoon. Some Sunday night
restrictions could also occur in fog/haze.

Monday night-Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Some MVFR/IFR valley fog
is possible during the late night and early morning hours each
day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MLJ/PCF



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