Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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993
FXUS61 KBGM 230839
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
339 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be mainly dry early this morning with light winds.
Another area of low pressure is expected to impact the region
today into the evening with rain and patches of freezing rain.
More rain will move in for Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
950 PM UPDATE...Have removed much of the precipitation overnight
as there seems little model support for even low pops. Temps are
dropping only very slowly this evening so have adjusted hourlys
and mins to reflect this. Otherwise. just a quiet break in the
weather ahead of Friday`s event.

400 PM Update...

The winter storm that has been affecting the area today is now
quickly exiting the area. This storm produced a period of heavy
snow along and north of the NY/PA border...with a messy wintry
mix of precipitation over the Northern Tier of PA and higher
Pocono mountains. Expect a period of light snow to linger east
of I-81 through about 5 or 6 PM in NY...with a mixture of light
rain, sleet and perhaps an isolated pocket of freezing rain for
NE PA also until 5 or 6 PM. After 6 PM much of the area will dry
out, but remain under mostly cloudy skies. Cannot completely
rule out some patchy drizzle or frz drizzle for the overnight
hours...especially over the higher terrain. Temperatures drop
down into the 20s tonight across all of Central NY...with upper
20s to around 30 in Northeast PA. These colder overnight lows
will set the stage for more freezing precipitation on Friday for
parts of the area. Temperatures aloft will warm well above
freezing Friday morning across the entire area...therefore
additional snow is not expected as the next weather system
approaches the area. Instead, precipitation is progged to move
into the area from SW to NE after 7am Friday in the form of
either rain or freezing rain...depending on surface temperatures.
The Finger Lakes, Central Souther Tier of NY and the NY Thruway
corridor should stay mainly all rain on Friday. Right now the
best chance for at least some light freezing rain and glazes of
ice are forecast to be along and east of a line from about
Towanda--Owego--Norwich and Cooperstown...including all of our
NE PA counties. Although any location in the above mentioned
area could see some freezing rain...the best potential for ice
accretion will be over the higher terrain. The Wyoming Valley
(including Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Pittston etc) could see very
light coatings of freezing rain early Friday morning...but
temperatures likely warm above freezing by late morning here.
Issued another winter weather advisory starting at 7 AM Friday
for the above mentioned areas for the freezing rain threat. The
Advisory will end at 2 PM Friday for Bradford, Susquehanna,
Broome, Tioga and Chenango...while areas further east in the
higher terrain of the Poconos, Catskills, Sullivan County and
Northern Oneida County may see pockets of freezing rain linger
into early Friday evening. The highest ice accumulations will be
found in these areas...where a tenth or two of accretion is
possible. Either way, for locations that do see freezing rain
plan on slippery conditions...including untreated roads and
sidewalks. High temperatures late Friday afternoon will be in
the mid-30s east...with lower 40s west. Precipitation tapers off
to just a few light showers Friday evening...with mostly dry
conditions expected for much of Friday night. Temperatures
remain elevated in a warm WSW flow regime. Most locations only
fall into the mid to upper 30s Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday night...Low pressure in the mid west will lift
northeast to the western Great Lakes by Sunday morning. Initial
mid level short wave will move through the southern forecast
area during the evening hours. This will spread rain across the
region from northeast Pennsylvania north to the southern tier.
After 06Z, forcing from the warm front and the next mid level
wave will bring the rain to the rest of the forecast area.
Surface temperatures in northern Oneida and Sullivan counties
will be near the freezing mark therefore also included freezing
rain but the threat for significant icing is low with
temperatures above the boundary layer so warm.

Sunday...Low pressure will continue tracking northeast to James
Bay with the trailing surface occlusion moving through the
local area during the afternoon. Will continue with categorical
pops during the morning but by afternoon the activity will be
diminishing rapidly from west to east. The precipitation will
end as rain showers as not much cold air available behind the
occlusion. Total rainfall during this period could approach one
inch. With main stem rivers and tributaries already running
high, this will be monitored closely for possible flood watches
by later shifts. Will continue mention in HWO.

Sunday night...Surface high pressure builds in from the Ohio
valley bringing dry conditions with lows in the lower to middle
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A quiet period will continue through Tuesday night as a broad
area of high pressure remains in the mid Atlantic region with a
flat ridge aloft. It will remain warm under continued southwest
flow regime with temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above
normal.

Late in the period the upper level trough and surface feature in
the southwest United States will track across the mid west and
into the eastern states. GFS has shown better run to run
continuity than the ECMWF but the spread on the evolution of the
system remains significant resulting in low confidence. For now
will carry chance pops Wednesday night through Friday.
Precipitation type at this point will likely go from mainly wet
to white.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1240 am update...

Light winds and low level moisture will keep a mix of IFR and
low MVFR ceilings over the terminals early this morning. ITH/BGM
will have the lowest conditions at IFR. The others will be
mostly fuel alternate MVFR.

As mixing increases ahead of the next frontal push, ceilings and
vsbys should lift temporarily between 10 and 15z. A round of
rain and light freezing rain will push into NY and PA around 15z
dropping cigs and vsbys to IFR and low end MVFR.

This evening rain will end around 02z. Vsbys will improve but
probably not the cigs.

East to southeast winds at 5 kts early. Midday southeast winds
at 5 to 10 kts but at ELM/BGM/ITH winds at 10 to 12 kts with
higher gusts. This evening winds shift to southwest at 5 kts.

Outlook...
Friday overnight through Sunday...Restrictions continue. Steady
rain Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

Monday-Tuesday...Improvement back to VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     this evening for PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 2 PM EST
     this afternoon for PAZ038-039.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     this evening for NYZ009-046-057-062.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 2 PM EST
     this afternoon for NYZ045-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MLJ
NEAR TERM...DGM/MJM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC



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