Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 131140
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
640 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BITTERLY COLD AIR WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TODAY, WITH THE
ENTIRE AREA WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. THE WIND WON`T BE AS STRONG
SUNDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH HIGHS NEAR 10. AFTER
SOME WARMING MONDAY...A LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE
STORM TRACK...PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
415 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH TO CHANGE WITH THE WELL ADVERTISED ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN
AS WE SPEAK. THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS COLD AIR, IS NOW MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN PA. IT SHOULD CLEAR KAVP WITHIN THE HOUR. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF, BUT NOT
THE SQUALLS WE SAW EARLIER TONIGHT IN SYRACUSE AND ITHACA, WHERE
BRIEF WHITEOUTS OCCURRED. TEMPS ARE ALREADY BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN
NY, SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NY, AND FALLING THROUGH
THE LOWER TEENS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM
THE FINGER LAKES, SQUALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA, WITH MORE SNOWS UP NEAR SYRACUSE. AS THE
COLDER AIR DEEPENS AND OUT ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT, EXPECT LAKE SNOW
ACTIVITY TO CONTRACT BACK TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO ITSELF. FAVORED
AREAS ON A 300-310 FLOW WILL REMAIN DUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO,
WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ARE LIKELY TODAY FROM NEAR
SYRACUSE TO JUST NORTH OF BINGHAMTON. I CONTINUED TO MENTION
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW,
WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH LIKELY. WELL ADVERTISED WIND CHILL VALUES
FALL INTO THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 35 RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON, AS
SURFACE TEMPS DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS. WHILE WE ARE
ACCUSTOMED TO COLD AIR AND SNOW IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL ESPECIALLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU HAVE EXTRA
SUPPLIES TO STAY WARM IN CASE OF BREAKING DOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
415 AM UPDATE...

THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER US TONIGHT, WITH 850 TEMPS
RANGING FROM -26C OVER NORTHERN PA TO -32C OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA! WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO PEAK WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, IT DOESN`T TAKE
MUCH OF A BREEZE WHEN YOU ARE THIS COLD TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS! SURFACE TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -5 AND -15, WITH -25 UP
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE. FROM ONEIDA COUNTY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS A SLIGHTLY MORE BRISK WIND AND
COLDER TEMPS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED AREAS TO APPROACH -45 FOR A WIND
CHILL!

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY, LAKE SNOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE SAME
ORIENTATION BUT CONTINUE TO SHRINK BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR LIMITS THE
INTENSITY OF THE SNOWS. AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT, WILL
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN AN INCH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUR FLOW
BACKS TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHIFTING ANY LINGERING EFFECTS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WHILE THE WIND
WILL DIE DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS AGAIN WILL BE ONLY AROUND
10.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...00Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT COLDER FOR THE STORM
EARLY IN THE PD WITH THE EURO STILL THE WARMEST...BUT NOW TRENDING
TWRD THE COLDER CANADIAN/NAM/GFS. LATTER THREE IS REALATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT AT 00Z WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING UP CST NEAR NYC AND HDG
INTO WRN NEW ENG. THIS WLD KEEP THE CHANCE FOR MIXED PCPN OVER THE
ERN ZONES...BUT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE I81
CORRIDOR. OUTLIER EURO WLD KEEP A CHG TO RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...XCPT PERHAPS IN THE FAR WRN CWA. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLDER TREND BUT AM
NOT YET COMPLETELY SOLD ON THE IDEA. LOW CONFIDENCE FCST
CONTS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE SURE TO BE MADE AS THE EVENT
DRAWS CLSR. PRVS DISC CONTS BLO.

330 PM THU UPDATE...
LARGE SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN MOST MODELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...INCLUDING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR STORM TRACK
AND THUS PRECIPITATION TYPES.

12Z ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST CYCLOGENESIS...AS WELL AS THE
WESTERNMOST WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO ITS SURFACE LOW TRACK
STAYING INLAND AND HEADING DIRECTLY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS
SCENARIO WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW...TO WINTRY
MIX/ICE...TO PLAIN RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A LOT OF IT. BEING
PRECEDED BY OUR ARCTIC WEEKEND WITH FROZEN GROUND...ANY RAIN WOULD
DIRECTLY RUN OFF INTO STREAMS AND COULD CAUSE ISSUES IF THIS CAME
TO PASS. 12Z GFS IS FURTHER EAST WITH ITS TRACK...AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN ECMWF WITH ITS INLAND TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD POSE
BOTH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT /ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-81/ AND A
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOWARDS POCONOS-
CATSKILLS. AND FINALLY...12Z GEM GLOBAL AND 18Z GFS MODELS HAVE
LESS PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...AND THUS A
WEAKER FASTER SURFACE LOW WITH FURTHER EAST TRACK /LONG ISLAND/.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD GIVE US MAINLY SNOW...HEAVIEST SOUTHEAST AND
PERHAPS LEAVING MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH ONLY A LITTLE SNOW...THAT
IS...MOSTLY MISSING THE REGION. ALSO THE 18Z GFS...BEING WEAKER
WITH THE MON NGT-TUE LOW...GIVES ENERGY TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD BRING SNOW THEN. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
QUIETER BUT A WARM FRONT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE AT
PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY AS WELL AS MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

KEY POINTS AT THIS JUNCTURE ARE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM OF SOME FORM LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...AND THE FORECAST BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS THE DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER IN COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE AREA THIS MRNG WILL TRIGGER OCNL SNOW
SHWRS AND SQUALLS WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDS. ALSO...GUSTY NNW
WINDS WILL OCNLY BRING BLWG SNOW AND LOCAL VSBY REDUCTIONS. XPCT A
GRADUAL IMPRVMT IN CONDS LTR TODAY AND OVRNGT AS DRIER AIR MVES
INTO THE AREA...HWVR...SOME LGT LE SNOW WILL CONT ESP AT
SYR/BGM/ITH INTO THE EVENING HRS.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...VFR.

MON NGT-TUE...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION.

WED...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...DGM


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