Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 282340
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
740 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching front will bring a period of showers and a
chance for thunderstorms later this evening through midday
Monday. A generally unsettled pattern will persist through the
week due to the system`s upper level low lingering over the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
740 pm update... We`ve slightly sped up the onset of
showers/embedded thunder this evening, based on radar/satellite
trends. Overall, we still expect thunder to diminish as the area
of showers moves eastward across our forecast area overnight,
but there will likely be enough of it to maintain an isolated-
scattered mention. Some slow moving heavy downpours have been
noted upstream in western/central PA and the western southern
tier of NY, and given the infusion of deeper moisture, along
with the potential for increasingly slower moving individual
cells later tonight, we`ll have to watch for this, particularly
in the Finger Lakes region and portions of NEPA.

It appears that the steadier showers will exit stage right by
the late morning-midday hours Monday.

Just minor temperature tweaks were made early this evening, with
overnight lows still expected to range from the mid 50s-lower
60s.

Previous discussion... Tonight/Monday...Surface low pressure
currently over southern Michigan will gradually lift northeast
into southern Ontario by Monday morning. The surface occlusion
associated with this feature will gradually move into the
western forecast area Monday morning then wash out. A mid level
short wave in advance of this system will cross the region later
tonight into Monday morning. Scattered to isolated
showers/thunderstorms will be possible over the entire region
through early evening. Later this evening as forcing increases
from west to east widepsread showers and scattered thunderstorms
will spread across the area. By mid morning widespread activity
will be confined to area primarily from I81 east then exit the
western Catskills by midday. Will continue to mention thunder
due to mid level instability. Overnight lows will range from the
middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs temperatures on Monday will have
a fairly large spread from east to west. Since clouds and wet
conditions will persist in the east with a cool southeast flow
highs will only reach around 60 while in the western forecast
area a milder southwest flow with some sunshine will allow
temperatures to reach the middle 70s.

Monday night...Overnight period will be primarily dry but by
late night another mid level wave in southwest flow will bring
the chance for showers primarily across central New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 pm update... On Tuesday, the mid-level short-wave mentioned
at the end of the previous section, along with an associated,
but weakening surface boundary, is progged to come through
CNY/NEPA. As a result, showers and some embedded thunderstorms
are likely to track through the region, mainly CNY. Instability
remains questionable (model values mainly 500 j/kg or less at
this time), with fairly extensive clouds/limited heating, so at
this juncture, any thunderstorms look to be non-severe/garden
variety in nature. Wind fields are fairly strong, though, so if
any future upticks in progged instability occur, stronger storms
would have to be considered. For now, we have no mention of
such in our hazardous weather outlook.

Tuesday night, the above disturbances are expected to track off
to the east, with showers diminishing during the night into
early Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, the next short-wave
is expected to rotate eastward through the forecast area, along
with another lower-level boundary, bringing at least scattered
showers and possible thunder.

Temperatures should continue somewhat below seasonal normals for
the end of May, with highs in the 60s-lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
445 pm update... The same basic long-wave pattern remains in
tact, with troughing/below normal heights over the Great Lakes
and northeastern states. Thus, temperatures will stay on the
cool side for early June, along with at least some threat of
showers most of the time.

It appears we may be able to sneak out one dry day Thursday, as
surface ridging temporarily builds in behind Wednesday`s systems
mentioned above. However, the chances for showers should
increase again towards next weekend, as the next surface low,
frontal complex, and series of upper-level waves approach.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue into the early evening with
ceilings around 4K feet. Overnight a mid level wave and
approaching surface occlusion will bring showers and
restrictions into the terminals. Conditions will lower into the
MVFR/Alternate required category overnight as showers spread
across the area between 03Z-06Z. At KBGM, IFR category is likely
between 08Z-15Z. Toward the end of the TAF period conditions
will slowly improve.

South/southeast winds at 5-10 knots with gusts on the hilltops
overnight becoming south/southwest late in the period.

Outlook...

Monday afternoon through Friday...Restrictions possible from
scattered showers and perhaps thunder.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM


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