Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 040842
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
442 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE RAIN
WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON... THEN MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK OVER FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK ALONG WITH SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 850
MB AND A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA. THE RESULT IS AN AREA OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS PA INTO
SOUTHERN NY EARLY THIS MORNING. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL FROM THE NY/PA
BORDER SOUTHWARD WITH SOME LIGHTER RAIN GETTING AS FAR NORTH AS
THE MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RAIN HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY GETTING NORTH OF
A DANSVILLE TO CORTLAND LINE... AND THIS MAY INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA
AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SOAKING
FOR NORTHERN PA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR ESTIMATES ALREADY
INDICATING OVER HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA AS OF 430
AM.

THE AREA OF STEADIER RAIN WILL PASS EAST OF OUR COUNTIES BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH
AS SOME CLEARING DESTABILIZES THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER LAKES THEN WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY TRY TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
VERY QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH
MOIST GROUND... THEN SUNSHINE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT A FAIRLY HIGH LEVEL THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH MODELS TRENDING MUCH DRIER LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODEL NOT
HOLDING CONSISTENT TIMING FOR FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ALL PRODUCING LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE PERIOD. GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE EURO HOLDING IT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. HAVE
KEPT POPS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY MAY
BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH BEST CHCS TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY AFTN.
SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW
DRY DAYS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST DRIER
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD...IF THE TREND
CONTINUES TONIGHT THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY GO ALL DRY IF THE RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS THERE FOR THE 00Z RUN TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD...UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FOR MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SAT UPDATE... INCOMING AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY MVFR
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. KBGM AND KITH...ON THE HILLTOPS...MAY
EXPERIENCE SOME IFR CEILINGS JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT THE
REGION...WE SHOULD GO BACK TO PREVAILING VFR.

IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS EARLY
JUNCTURE...SMALL AREAL COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE
PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. SINCE...FOR THE
MOST PART...RESTRICTIONS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR OR AFTER 06Z
SUNDAY...THEY WERE ALSO NOT INCLUDED JUST YET.

LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 14-15Z...WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AT 5-8 KNOTS FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GOING BACK TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OTHER THAN EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...ABS
AVIATION...MLJ



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