Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 270558
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
158 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will push
rain back into the area overnight and early on Monday with some
areas of freezing rain likely in Sullivan County. Drier air
will return Monday but another period of rain is likely Tuesday.
Wednesday and Thursday will be dry and seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1020 pm update...Temperatures are holding right around freezing
in Sullivan County so we issued a freezing rain advisory for the
overnight period into Monday morning (2-8am). Expect lower
elevations south of Monticello to be mainly rain with a period
of freezing likely over northern parts of the county before a
change to rain occurs Monday morning.


8 pm update...The area is currently in a lull with more showers
located upstream over western PA due to arrive late this
evening into the overnight. For this reason, reduced POPs for
this evening as precip won`t arrive in western Steuben County
until near 3z. Still have a couple concerns with this overnight
precip....the first being isolated areas of freezing rain in
Sullivan County where temps continue to remain at or below
freezing. Also, there could be some minor hydro issues overnight
in areas of moderate rain.


339 pm update...Blocking high over New England has been
stubbornly persistent and unwilling to let go. This has kept
some cold air over the far eastern zones, mainly northern
Sullivan and eastern Delaware. As the next batch of rain moves
in, NAM12 shows some lingering cold air in a narrow layer
holding on and continuing into the early morning hours before
finally being scoured out. At this time, believe icing will be
isolated enough and remote enough to be handled by an SPS if
needed.

System itself is not particularly strong, in fact the models
show the low filling over time as it moves into Ontario. It does
show a nice little jet streak ahead of the wave and develops a
decent period of rain between 06Z and 12Z with rain amounts up
to a half inch possible. This could cause some minor hydro
issues, see hydro discussion section for details.

Somewhat drier air arrives on Monday, although clouds should
persist with just weak ridging and leftover moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
3 pm update...

Monday night a break with one system pulling out and another
moving in late. Mostly cloudy skies becoming cloudy. mild
moist air will keep lows in the 40s. Snowmelt will continue.

Unsettled weather with another period of rain. This will move in
Tuesday morning and end in the evening. Rainfall amounts should
be mostly under a quarter of an inch. This is good given the
rain of the past week, rainfall Monday, snowmelt, and high river
and streams. Localized heavy rain possible in the afternoon and
evening as a cold front moves through. Model disagreement on
where the sfc low will be on the front. Some models bullseye the
lake plain and others the Poconos. Trend has been the further
south solution which would put the most rain in the southeast
and out of the north branch Susquehanna NY and Oneida basins.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 pm update...

This period is quiet Wednesday and Thursday followed by a slow
moving occluded front Friday to Saturday. Sunday a cold front
late. Temperatures normal to above normal with highs in the 40s
and 50s, and lows in the 20s and 30s.

Tuesday night rain pulling out. Enough cold air comes in late so
any lingering light rain shower could be snow. Lows low to mid
30s.

Wednesday to Thursday high pressure at the surface with a ridge
aloft. Temperatures close to normal with highs in the 40s and
lows in the 20s and 30s.

Friday will be watching a strong storm for rainfall amounts.
Slow moving storm will move northeast from the central plains
into the Great Lakes Friday. Friday night it moves over our
region and reforms on the coast Saturday. The heaviest rain will
be with and ahead of the low Friday afternoon and night. Cold
air should stay to the north keeping all of the precip rain even
with the upper level trough Saturday. Any snow left will be
melted with warm moist air ahead of this storm.

Sunday will be in transition as flow goes zonal and another
short wave and weak front approaches late.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low pressure system will drift to the north this morning and
bring rain showers again to the region through mid-morning. This
system continues to have copious amounts of low-lvl moisture,
thus IFR & MVFR ceilings continue to prevail across the central
NY and northeast PA. Fuel alternate, IFR and Below alternate
minimums are expected to last through at least 18Z Monday
until the sfc flow become more SW. Once sfc winds shift to the
SW, flight conditons are expected to quickly improve to MVFR and
possibly VFR.

A strong low-lvl jet is present over the region this morning,
thus LLWS will be a threat for all TAF sites through at least
15Z Mon. Sfc winds tonight will light and variable for KELM, and
AVP. All remaining TAF sites will see E/SE winds at 8 to 15
knots with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Sfc winds during the
afternoon will be SE around 6 to 12 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Monday night through Tuesday...Restrictions likely from waves
of rain as frontal boundary waffles over the area.

Wednesday/Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night/Friday...Restrictions likely in showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
245 PM EDT Sunday UPDATE...The rain on snow melt event is
underway, and will continue into the upcoming week as
temperatures in the 50s-60s become more widespread across the
region. This warmth will also be accompanied by an increase in
surface dewpoints into the 40s.

Future rainfall amounts are roughly the same in today`s model
runs, with basin averaged QPF up to an inch through Wednesday
morning. This along with the runoff of most of the 1 to 3 inches
of liquid water content across the headwaters of the Upper
Susquehanna, Delaware and the Oneida-Syracuse river basin will
lead to high flows, and probably minor flooding at several of
the forecast gauge points in the Susquehanna and Upper Delaware
tribs.

MMEFS ensemble spreads are even more aggressive than our latest
operational hydrologic model runs, and show a potential for a
quicker melt on Monday with sharp rises to flood stage at the
headwater points, followed by secondary crests on Tuesday. In
some cases, the mean crests are to the Moderate flood stage.
The confidence of a near worst case scenario outcome is quite
low at this time, but it will be important to keep these caveats
in mind as this event unfolds, and be prepared to react to
locally heavier rainfall and/or a rapid melt down of the snow
cover.

With forecast crests still over 48 hours away, there is still
time for further assessment, and no Watch will be issued at this
time.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Freezing Rain Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...KAH
HYDROLOGY...


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