Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 230754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
354 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

A ridge of high pressure centered to the south will keep dry
weather over the region today, but an approaching cold front from
the north will bring some gusty winds. The cold front will drop
through the region tonight, but will only bring some clouds. A
large area of high pressure will bring more dry conditions Monday
and Tuesday.


WAA mid clouds continue to work southeast across the region early
this morning, but should be east of the area by sunrise. This
should leave the rest of the day mostly sunny as a ridge of high
pressure centered down in the deep south holds an approaching
cold front at bay.

Sfc winds will be from the sw today. This will bring in warmer
air and with a lack of cloud cover temperatures will warm to near
70 in the Tri-state and mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Models bring a
H8 jet of 50 kts across the fa, so expect some wind gusts to
around 30 mph.


Tonight a H5 s/w will swing thru the ern Great Lakes and into New
England. At the surface, a cold front will drop down from Lake
Erie. The best lift with this system stays north and east of the
fa, and with relatively limited moisture to work with, only
expect clouds with fropa tonight. By sunrise Monday, the front
will be south of the Ohio River, leaving the fa mostly clear.

The region will remain under the nw H5 flow aloft on Monday
Surface high pressure centered over the upper MS Valley will bring
cooler air in. Highs will range from the mid to upper 50s in
Central and West Central OH to the lower to mid 60s in nrn KY.

The high will settle over the region Monday night. This will lead
to mostly clear skies and light winds. Patchy frost will be a
possibility for a good portion of the region as lows will dip
into the mid to upper 30s, with some lower 40s in nrn KY and parts
of se IN. Cirrus looks like it will be trying to build in from the
west late Monday night, so we will have to see how that affects
frost development.

The high will remain across the region on Tuesday keeping things
dry, but with the nw flow aloft, high clouds will affect the
region. Expect highs to range from the mid 50s in the northeast
to the lower 60s in the south.


Numerical model solutions showing a progressive mid level
shortwave tracking from the plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley at mid week. Some timing differences exist with the
solutions but Wednesday night looks to be the best threat for rain
and have bumped pops up to likely then. Wednesday`s high
temperatures to range from the upper 50s north to the upper 60s
south. Precipitation to end from west to east Thursday with highs
of 60 to 65.

Surface high pressure to build in at the end of the week, offering a
return to dry weather conditions. Highs again will fall in the 60 to
65 degree range.

Next surface low to approach the area later Saturday. Have held off
any precipitation until Saturday night. On warm side of this system
and back side of retreating surface high pressure expect
temperatures to be a few degree above normal. Saturdays highs
to range from the lower and middle 60s far north to near 70 south.


The surface ridge of high pressure stretched across the region will
provide quiet weather through the overnight period. Some WAA-
induced lower altocumulus will move southeast through the area
over the next several hours before skies gradually clear towards

During the afternoon, a weak sfc low pressure will track to the
north of the area across the Great Lakes region. The main impact
from this system will be a tighter pressure gradient, which will
lead to gusty southwesterly winds of around 20-25kts during the
afternoon. The associated cold front will push southeast through
the TAF sites after 00z Monday, allowing for winds to go more
westerly towards 06z. A few VFR clouds are expected with the

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday night
into Thursday.




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