Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 210233
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1033 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MILD NIGHT
IS IN STORE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
COOLER AIR WILL DROP IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...LEADING TO SEVERAL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH
PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S IN OUTLYING AREAS. MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK
WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH WILL BRING MILD
DAYS...COOL NIGHTS...AND LOW HUMIDITY. PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AMPLIFIED MID/UPR AIR FLOW WITH TROF DIGGING SE THRU THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM CONVECTION DEVELOPED IN MODERATE INSTBY TO OUR WEST
THIS AFTN OVER INDIANA. THIS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO AND WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

NEW ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACRS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL
AND CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST INTO ILN/S
WESTERN COUNTIES IN NEXT FEW HOURS. MODIFIED SOUNDING NORTH OF CVG
YIELDS ELEVATED CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTBY...ALONG
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KTS SHUD ALLOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE. A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL EXIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY OVER WEST CENTRAL OHIO/MIAMI AND
WHITEWATER VALLEYS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVECTION
AND UPDATED HWO PRODUCT.

TEMPS TO REMAIN MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST HEIGHT FALL CENTER MENTIONED ABOVE PULLS EAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING TAKING PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
IT THROUGH THE MORNING. RESIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO CROSS THE AREA
IN THE MORNING AND THEN SCT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUBBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH/EAST OR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA. RATHER IMPRESSIVE/NARROW DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP IN LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SUNSHINE BEFORE STRONG CAA SETS IN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SECONDARY FRONT. WITH SHALLOW INSTBY DEVELOPING...COULD
SEE SOME SCT SHRA DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WAS ALREADY WELL
HANDLED BY PVS FORECASTER. THIS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR NORTH
CLOSER TO STRONG/COMPACT SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS NRN OH. DON/T
EXPECT MUCH IF ANY THUNDER AFTER ABOUT 18Z...AS INSTBY BECOMES TOO
SHALLOW FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. WILL DEFINITELY A BE A CHANGEABLE
/AUTUMN-LIKE DAY DESPITE MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY/GUSTY IN THE AFTN AS THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES AND
CHANGEABLE SKY WITH THE DRY SLOT TO LOWER CLOUDS ALONG/BEHIND THE
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT.

AS THIS ACTION ALL CLEARS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...A VERY CHILLY NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS WELL
INTO THE 40S IN OUR INDIANA/WRN OHIO COUNTIES AS 925MB TEMPS DROP
TO +5C IN THIS AREA BY SUNRISE ON MONDAY. SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE
IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LESSENING WINDS AS
WELL...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR INBOUND...AM A LITTLE WORRIED
I AM CLEARING THE SKIES A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY AND STRATOCUMULUS MAY
BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

MONDAY BRINGS 1024MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO BY MONDAY EVENING. SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH DEWPTS IN THE 40S. CONTINUED WEAK CAA
SHOULD KEEP 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8 TO +10C RANGE WHICH PER CLIMO
STUDY SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS...DESPITE PLENTY OF SUN. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE COLD PRONE/OUTLYING SITES
TOUCH THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN LIKE DELAWARE/MARYSVILLE ETC DID
LAST WEEK. MAY EVEN BE A TOUCH COLDER THIS TIME AROUND. LOW TEMPS
THIS NIGHT MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM IN GOING
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD AT
12Z AND THE VERY DRY PROFILE /PWATS RUNNING 40% OF NORMAL/. AN
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SIGNAL BEING SEEN IN THE DATA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS AND
FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AS THE
AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH
DAY...FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S MID WEEK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST ACROSS INDIANA IN MODERATE
INSTBY AHD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND WAS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NW
OHIO. INSTBY SHARPLY DROPS OFF INTO MARGINAL CATEGORY ACROSS OHIO.
THIS LINE WAS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO LESS FAVORABLE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT.
HAVE TIMED A PERIOD OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT FOR REMNANTS OF THIS
CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT PRIOR TO SFC COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS FOR A PERIOD SUNDAY AFTN WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LEVEL
TROF LATE AFTN INTO SUNDAY EVENING. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO BE VFR
BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT WEST
WITH FROPA ON SUNDAY AND THEN BECOME NW SUNDAY AFTN. WINDS WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 27 KTS SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/AR
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR






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