Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 041034
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
634 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
CROSS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MIDWEST WILL EXTEND A RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND KEEP
A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN THE OHIO VALLEY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL CROSS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OHIO TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CUTOFF OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE BROAD UPWARD
MOTION EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LOW...ENOUGH FORCING MAY BE PRESENT
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE KEPT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND
RAIN EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW AND A LINGERING
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LAYING OUT OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL KEEP A
CLOUDY AND COOL AIRMASS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CURVE CYCLONICALLY
AND WRAP FROM EASTERN OHIO THROUGH WESTERN OHIO AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE
LIFTING MECHANISM OF THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW-SE LATER THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MAKE A REBOUND OUT OF THE 60S ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
WARM SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT TO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH CLEARING SKIES
PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
IN HOW QUICKLY THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NOW APPEARS PREFERRED...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
REGION ON SATURDAY...AND LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA (PERHAPS EXCEPT
FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY) DRY ON SUNDAY. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS
SATURDAY (HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S)...WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ALSO NEEDED TO BE REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THEY REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 60S
/ LOWER 70S). AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
APPEAR TO BE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
MOVING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WITH A WARM AND MOIST PATTERN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A RIDGE...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BUT A LACK OF FEATURES FOR FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP
ACTIVITY DISORGANIZED (AND THUS POPS ARE ONLY BEING INTRODUCED AT
THE 20 PERCENT LEVEL).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
H5 TROF DIGGING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES ATTM...WILL CUT OFF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY LAYER TODAY. A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND CDFNT
WILL SWING INTO THE TAFS LATER THIS AFTN. BAND OF MVFR SHRA WILL
REACH THE WRN TAFS AROUND 15Z. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...SO CANT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN 18-21Z.

CDFNT WILL MOV THRU THE WRN TAFS AROUND 21Z AND THE ERN TAFS A
FEW HOURS LATER. SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS,

DEEPENING H5 LOW WILL WORK SOUTH INTO KY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR...THE IFR AFTER 06Z. SCATTERED SHRA WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES



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