Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 020552
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
152 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND
CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE END OF THE WEEK...CULMINATING ON
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES AND THEY
WILL MOVE OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION. HRRR
AND RAP MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES. BUT IT APPEARS
THAT ACTIVITY WILL NOT SPREAD INTO WESTERN ZONES UNTIL VERY LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL TO CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
PERIOD AND INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST LOWS LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THE TIME DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE SW-NE AXIS MORE INTO THE CWA AND ALONG THE
I-71 CORRIDOR. AREAS THAT SAW EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY MAY
BE HIT WITH ANOTHER SOAKER...BUT THE UNUSUALLY HIGH VALUES SHOULD
NOT MAKE ANOTHER APPEARANCE...AT LEAST OVER WARREN AND GREENE
COUNTIES. PRECIP DURING THE DAY OVER THE CWA WILL BE PROGRESSIVE
AND EXPAND SOUTHEAST TO COVER THE REST OF CWA BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MUTED DUE TO THE RAINFALL...GENERALLY IN THE
LOW 80S...SOME MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF A FEW
HOURS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY FILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
PROVIDE ENOUGH DOWNWARD MOTION TO HELP SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE CLOUD
COVER AND USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR. THE DRIEST AIR AND SUBSEQUENT
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR...WITH THE AREA EAST OF COLUMBUS
GETTING THE BEST COOLING BOTH TUES AND WED NIGHTS. NORTH OF DAYTON
ON WED NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE INVOLVED WITH THE RETURNING WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR ON THE SOUTHERLY WINDS.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING UP THROUGH THE WRN OHIO
VALLEY. AS FRONT LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

BY FRIDAY...A CDFNT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A RANGE ON THE FROPA TIMING. THE GFS IS THE
QUICKEST...WHILE THE ECMWF IS ON THE SLOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE.
BOTH MODELS SHOW FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES ON SATURDAY. PUT THE BEST POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH 50 POP ACROSS THE REGION. REDEVELOPED THE PCPN SATURDAY MORNING
WITH 50 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT LOWER POPS TO THE NW.

THE GFS DRIES THINGS OUT QUICKER SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF WHICH LEAVES LINGERING PCPN CHANCES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH. HELD ON TO 20 POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S IN NRN KY. BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SPOTTY MVFR STRATUS IS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS COULD FILL IN A BIT MORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...THINK
THE QUICKLY THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
INDIANA SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD 09Z AND THE
EASTERN TAF SITES AROUND 11Z. PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A GOOD LOW
LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO OUR AREA THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IN THE THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA.
AS THIS INITIAL WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WE COULD SEE A LULL
IN THE PCPN FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS
WE DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT TO SEE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ALLOWING
FOR DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL







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