Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 121801
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
101 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IS PASSING SOUTH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING.
ONLY WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE SRN CWFA
IN RESPONSE TO THIS WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW.

THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FIRST BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PV ANOMALY AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST OHIO WITH WEAKER LIFT INTO OUR REGION. SHOULD STILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY IN
CENTRAL OHIO.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN POISED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. COULD ALSO BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...A HALF
INCH OR LESS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING.

MOS LOOKED LIKE IT HAD A REASONABLE HANDLE ON HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT.

BEHIND THE FRONT...AM EXPECTING A STREAMER TO DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS MAY END UP BEING FLURRIES MORE THAN SNOW
SHOWERS BY THE TIME IS GETS THIS FAR SOUTHEAST. THIS PLUME OFF OF
THE THE LAKE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT... LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AS THE WINDS BACK ON SATURDAY. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
END SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME
DIMINISHING IN SPEED LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOWEVER THAT WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION WITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN WIND
CHILL FALLING BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE A RATHER LIMITED RISE IN AIR TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. SO
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL GET NO HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
THEN FALL BACK BELOW ZERO SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL WIND BECOMES
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. SOME
AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE -10 THRESHOLD FOR WIND CHILL
ADVISORY. BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.

THE HIGH MOVES OFF EARLY SUNDAY AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
APPEAR LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL MID WEEK AND THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE
TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKE FORECAST MORE
CHALLENGING.

AT THIS POINT BELIEVE THAT WARM FRONTAL SNOW WILL MOVE OFF EARLY
IN THE PERIOD WITH A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. BUT A LARGE SHIELD
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL TRACK FORM THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST PRECIPITATION SPREADS AND ALSO IN THERMAL FIELDS. A BLEND
SEEMED TO FIT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND APPEARED TO BE A PRUDENT
APPROACH TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND PASS OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY
SYSTEM COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THE
HEELS OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL. AS THE FRONT PASSES BY...SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED NEAR KDAY AND
KILN AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN FOCUSES THIS ACTIVITY IN THAT REGION. CONDITIONS WILL
VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR.

ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST AS WIND FLOW BACKS AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME POCKETS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE BY THEN AS
STRATOCUMULUS/CUMULUS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HICKMAN


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