Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 241434
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1034 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mild weather today in a breezy southerly flow ahead of
low pressure centered to the west. The low will track east to
the Great Lakes by Sunday, bringing increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms during the weekend. Weak high pressure
and drier air will build in briefly early Monday, before
another area of low pressure arrives for Monday night and
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level moisture and weak instability has resulted in quite a
bit of convective mid clouds across the region. Radar has been
showing quite a bit of echo. 12Z sounding shows that low levels
are quite dry, so it is a bit of a question if any of the
precipitation is reaching the ground. Nonetheless, keeping
slight chance PoPs across the forecast area into the early
afternoon seems prudent.

Winds are becoming gusty and temperatures are warming despite
cloud cover. Forecast highs look in line at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Low pressure system will gradually move east to Missouri by
Saturday, while a warm front remains draped across the Great
Lakes, leaving the ILN area in the warm sector. With models
trending a bit slower with this system, expect dry weather to
persist tonight.

For Saturday, moisture and lift ahead of the low will produce
increasing chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms.
Western locations will see the best chance of showers being
closer to the bulk of moisture and forcing. Chance for severe
thunderstorms will be limited by marginal instability featuring
CAPE values reaching perhaps 500 J/KG.

Continued warm advection on a southerly flow will allow high
temperatures around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An active weather pattern this weekend into next week. Initial upper
level low to lift northeast and open up as it tracks from the mid MS
Valley across the Great Lakes Sunday/Sunday night. Axis of moisture
and instability will result in a period of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday night into Sunday ahead of surface cold front. Highs on
Sunday around 10 degrees above normal, ranging from the lower 60s
north to the upper 60s south.

Temporary dry period to work in early Monday as ridging builds in
ahead of next upper level trof. Next shortwave and associated
surface wave to track quickly northeast through the Ohio Valley. In
the warm moist environment temperatures to rise to highs from the
mid 60s north to the lower 70s south. Break in precipitation will be
short lived with showers and thunderstorms re-developing Monday
afternoon into Monday night. Pcpn to end early Tuesday as surface
high builds into the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain above
normal with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s
south.

Surface high to slide east with upper level ridging building in
Wednesday. This will provide dry weather and continued mild
temperatures. Highs on Wednesday to range from the upper 50s
northwest to the lower 60s southeast.

Active weather pattern to continue with next upper level low getting
kicked northeast from the southern plains into the mid MS Vly by
Friday morning. Will bring chance pops Thursday and then likely pops
Friday with a chance of thunder. Highs on Thursday and and Friday,
generally 60 to 65.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR will continue. Models have backed off on MVFR ceilings so
removed them. Surface wind speeds will increase by this
afternoon at all sites, with gusts as high as 31 knots at DAY.
VFR is still expected near the end of the forecast, though wind
shear is forecast to return with another round of the low level
jet.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities expected Saturday
night into Sunday along with a chance of thunderstorms. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities will be possible again Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio



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