Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 020014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
814 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO THE OHIO RIVER LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL POOL NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY AND
SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN
INDIANA. THE FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF COLUMBUS WILL WANE FAIRLY
QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA. REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE AN INCREASED THREAT CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON ANY ONE PARTICULAR SPOT
GETTING SHOWERS TONIGHT...BUT ALL HAVE SOMETHING SOMEWHERE OVER
CWA AND I CANNOT DISCERN WHERE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TONIGHT. THEREFORE...ENTIRE CWA HAS
AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CLOUD COVER
AND INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD INHIBIT READINGS FROM DROPPING PAST
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH SUBTLE SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH IT WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT.

WITH HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ON SATURDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH COVERAGE GREATER THAN TODAY. APPEARS
THAT ACTIVITY MAY PASS EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING.

GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED WITH A BLEND WHICH
PUT HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 12Z SUNDAY MORNING...PATTERN IS STILL DOMINATED BY OCEANIC
RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC AND PERSISTENT SWRN CONUS RIDGE...WITH
STILL A MODEST LONGWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THE TWO ORIENTED IN A
POSITIVE TILT FASHION FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY
INTO SERN CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP PUSH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH EASTWARD INTO
PA/WV DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND IT SEEMS RECENT GFS RUNS
WHICH WERE LAGGING THE WAVE BACK SLOWER OVER OHIO HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD RECENT ECMWF GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL ONLY CARRY A SMALL STORM
CHANCE IN THE SCIOTO VALLEY OF CENTRAL/SCNTL OH SUNDAY BEFORE
DRYING THINGS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALL.

MODEST HEIGHT RISES ON MONDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SOME
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH AND
THE NEXT S/W APPROACHING THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MAINTAINING A DRY
FORECAST MON/MON NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS IS ABOUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED.

TUE/WED...HAS BEEN A SIGNAL FOR QUITE SOME TIME OF SLIGHTLY LOWERING
HEIGHTS IN THIS TIMEFRAME WHICH ALLOWS A VERY WEAK FRONT TO SAG INTO
OH/IND PARTICULARLY TUES NIGHT IN WED. CONTINUE TO KEEP TUES DRY FOR
MOST EXCEPT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WHICH MAY GET AN AFTERNOON
STORM...BUT UNLIKELY.  BETTER CHANCES TUES NIGHT/WED AS THE FRONT
SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH AGAIN FORCING/WIND FIELDS
ARE ANEMIC...AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE PWAT ABOVE NORMAL. MODEST AT
BEST.

BUILDING UNCERTAINTY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURS/FRI. NEW 01.12Z
ECMWF INDICATES WEAK RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AND POTENTIAL MCS ACTION
WED NIGHT THROUGH THE CWA WHILE PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WERE A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE. WITH MODELS SHOWING UPSTREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE CNTL CONUS HARD TO IMAGINE FRONT WILL MAKE MUCH SWRD PROGRESS
WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT STARTING TO TURN AROUND/RISE BY THURS SO PLAYED
FOR A SLOWER FRONT THAT NEVER REALLY GETS SOUTH OF THE AREA...THUS
RAIN CHANCES FROM WED INTO FRIDAY.  STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW-MID 80S BY
DAY...LOW-MID 60S BY NIGHT...WITH DWPTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. TYPICAL
EARLY AUGUST WX FOR THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INVERTED TROUGH NOW POSITIONED OVER THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSRA WITH DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH 00-06Z IS MOST EXPECTED NEAR KDAY THOUGH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER LOCATIONS. ANY ACTIVITY IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON VERY SUBTLE SURFACE FEATURES AND OLD OUTFLOW
AREAS...SO VCSH/VCTS IS STILL NECESSARY.

WITH INCREASE LL MOISTURE AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR BR WITH KLUK STILL HAVING POTENTIAL TO DROP TO
IFR IN THE 09-12Z TIMEFRAME.

FOR SATURDAY DAYTIME...AS THE UPR TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AND
COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...HAVE CONTINUED SOME PREVAILING
-SHRA OVER ALL LOCATIONS AS ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
BECAUSE OF SLOW MOVING STORMS AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT...AND LOCATION
TO RECEIVE AN AFTERNOON STORM COULD DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR
THE DURATION OF THE STORM. BOTH UPPER LEVEL AND SFT TROUGH PUSHES
EAST BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BRINGING VFR SAT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...JDR






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