Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 270553

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Warm and humid conditions will continue through the weekend. In
the warm and humid airmass on Saturday, a few afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible. By Sunday into Monday, several
weak upper level disturbances will provide a little better chance
for a few showers and thunderstorms in the area.


Thunderstorms have quickly dissipated in the last hour or so with
only a few lingering showers left across our northwest. Will hang
on to some low pops for the next couple of hours to account for
this and then try to dry things out overnight.


H5 ridge centered over the central Appalachians builds a little
to the north on Saturday. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, we see
an increase in the instability Saturday afternoon. Because of the
position of the H5 ridge, there is a lack of forcing across the
fa, so limited pops to 20 to 30 percent in se IN and wrn OH.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the extreme wrn
locations because of the pcpn chances so held high temperatures
in the upper 80s. Farther e, highs should make the lower 90s. this
will push heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100, so will
adjust the wording in the HWO.

Saturday`s convection could bleed over in the early evening hours
before it dissipates. For Sunday, we get a little more upper
support as some vortices rotate around the ridge. Have chance
PoPs for the entire fa.

Muggy conditions are expected again on Sunday with highs from the
upper 80s nw to the lower 90s se. Heat indices on Sunday will be
similar to Saturday.


The proximity of a weak and somewhat nebulous surface boundary over
the region through early Wednesday will continue to necessitate the
potential for diurnally driven thunderstorm activity peaking in the
late day in a continued humid airmass.

Upper level high over the southeastern U.S. will flatten out and
retrograde into the Arklatex region as northwest flow sets up over
the northeastern U.S. with ridging in the Great Plains. The
northwest flow will help push a surface front through the Ohio
Valley on Wednesday, ushering in another welcome dry and cooler
period to start out September. Highs in the upper 80s to around 90
will be found Monday and Tuesday, drop into the 80s Wednesday and be
a more pleasant low to mid 80s for the end of the week. Min temps in
the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday and Tuesday will drop into the
lower 60s by weeks end.


Surface analysis shows a slow moving front near the Ohio River.
With no precip occurring along the front, skies are cloudy due to
mid and high level moisture originating from convection over far
western Kentucky.

VFR will likely continue through the forecast period for
the most part, though BR is expected to reduce visibility at LUK
and ILN early this morning. Models indicate convection will be
isolated at most and thus not worth mentioning in the forecast.
Scattered cumulus will probably form during daylight hours, while
cirrus persists. Winds will not be much of a factor either with
speeds around 5 knots out of the southeast.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.




LONG TERM...Franks
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