Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 011752
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY.  IT WILL REMAIN HUMID...AS
TEMPERATURES COULD TURN EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. EVEN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS ARE SEEING
SOME INTERVALS OF CLOUDS BUT GENERALLY MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS.
BASED ON MIXING POTENTIAL WITH SUCH LIGHT WINDS AND AT LEAST SOME
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS...MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN IN SOUTHERN AREAS...
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION.

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH)
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY.

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65
FURTHER SOUTH.

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS.

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY IN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

FEW-SCT CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN ISOLD THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR KPOU...BUT WE ELECTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE TAF THERE AT THIS TIME WITH THE PROBS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT.

THE SKIES WILL INITIALLY BE CLEAR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SCT-BKN
CIRRUS AROUND. THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW AREAS OF MIST OR FOG TO FORM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BTWN
06Z-12Z. KPOU WILL HAVE THE BEST CHC OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS CLOSER TO
08Z-12Z. THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-
14Z...WITH SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT KPSF...AND KGFL.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4-8 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AT 5 KTS OR
LESS. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 4-7 KTS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF).

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR
100 PERCENT.

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORKWEEK.


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







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