Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 180822
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
322 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures for Tuesday otherwise seasonable cold
this week. Some light snow is expected into this morning which
may lead to some slippery travel for the morning commute. The
weather will be unsettled into Tuesday evening with chances for
showers especially across the higher terrain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning a warm front will be located across eastern
New York with a wave of low pressure moving across the Adirondacks.
Ahead of this front an area of warm advection snow has
developed and will continue into the morning hours. Most likely
areas for accumulating snow will be from the Mohawk Valley to
points north and east where up to an inch or so of accumulation
is expected. Little in the way of accumulation is expected
elsewhere.

The warm front will lift into New England this afternoon
carrying most of the snow with it. Expect spotty precipitation
to continue across the northern mountains this afternoon. Highs
will be in the 30s with some upper 20s across the northern
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight the warm front will lift north as a warm front to
the Canadian border by Tuesday morning. Any lingering light
precipitation will be mainly confined to the northern mountains.
Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

For much of Tuesday the forecast area will be mainly in the
warm sector as a cold front is not expected to drop into
the region until late in the day. Any precipitation will
continue to be light and it will be relatively mild. Highs on
Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Tuesday night through Wednesday expect some lingering snow
showers across the northern mountains with some lake enhanced
snow showers east of Lake Ontario. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the 20s to lower 30s with highs on Wednesday in the mid 20s to
upper 30s.

Dry weather is expected Wednesday night as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the region from Canada. Lows will be in the
single digits and teens in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An increasingly active weather pattern will take hold during the
long term portion of the forecast, as the upper level pattern
undergoes further amplification across North America, with the mean
trough digging into the central U.S. This digging trough will allow
the mid/upper level flow to begin backing across the eastern U.S.,
allowing for subtropical moisture to begin spreading northward, and
also allowing for deep layer ridging to build off the southeast
coast, which should set up a strong low/mid level baroclinic zone
somewhere from the Gulf Coast to the northeast states.

Before this amplification occurs, a dampening shortwave will be
tracking across the southeast states to the mid Atlantic coast for
Thursday. Models continue to keep this system well to the south of
the region, however, will still need to watch for any northward
trends with its associated precipitation shield, as previous
southern stream impulses thus far this cold season have had a
tendency to track farther north than initially expected. For now,
will maintain a cold, dry forecast for Thursday as high pressure
dominates. Highs should range from the mid 20s to lower 30s in
valleys, with teens across higher terrain areas of the Adirondacks.

An upper level impulse will then track from the southwest U.S. into
the southern Plains and eventually Great Lakes region for Thursday
night-Saturday. Initially, warm advection precipitation may bring
some light snow to the Adirondacks late Thursday night-Friday
morning. Then, as a developing warm conveyor belt develops ahead of
the system`s cold front, precipitation is expected to increase in
areal coverage for later Friday into Friday night/Saturday. Low
level cold air may be tough to dislodge through Friday night for
areas north of the Mohawk River into southern VT, so despite warming
aloft, a wintry mix, including some freezing rain, may occur in
these areas, with rain showers elsewhere. Rain is then expected for
Saturday before the cold front crosses the region. Showers may end
as snow across higher terrain later Saturday. As for temperatures,
cold Thursday night, especially early, with lows in the single
digits and teens. Friday highs should reach the 20s and 30s. Friday
night lows should occur early, mainly in the 30s, before rising late
at night. Saturday high temps should occur in the morning before the
cold front passes, with 40s to lower 50s expected.

For Saturday night-Sunday, initially some wrap around/Lake enhanced
snow showers could occur. Then, will have to watch for a potential
wave of low pressure tracking along the frontal system which will
have passed through Saturday. Some snow or a wintry mix could
develop later Sunday or Sunday night well ahead of any possible
wave. Lows Saturday night in the 20s, with highs Sunday mainly in
the 20s and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front will approach from the southwest Monday into Monday
evening.

VFR conditions should become MVFR between 06Z-09Z/Mon for Cigs,
as low level moisture begins to expand northward. Also, some
spotty light snow or flurries will develop. Overall areal
coverage should remain patchy, with best chances occurring at
KGFL and KALB through 15Z/Mon. Periods of MVFR Vsbys could occur
within any of these snow showers.

MVFR conditions, mainly for Cigs, should prevail for the
remainder of Monday and into Monday evening. Some lowering into
IFR ranges will be possible. As for precipitation, additional
very light snow showers or flurries will remain possible at
KGFL through around 20Z/Mon. Some of these could briefly extend
to KALB and KPSF, but most should remain to the north. Even
without any snow, low level moisture will continue to increase,
which should result in areas of MVFR Vsbys due to BR this
afternoon and evening.

Light/variable winds through daybreak should trend into the
south at 4-8 KT this afternoon, then become light/variable again
after sunset.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic problems are expected this week. Ice will
continue to form on areas lakes and streams.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Frugis/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/11



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