Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 301833
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST OF CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF
SNOW THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A SNOW SQUALL THIS AFTERNOON. A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW USHERED IN BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 133 PM EST...THE SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE MOVES
RIGHT OVER THE CAPITAL REGION. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
A COATING TO AN INCH HERE OF THERE. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM NRN NY AND JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE BOUNDARY.

THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WAS EXPIRED FOR THE NRN TIER FOR THE
SNOW...THE WIND CHILLS BECOME THE ISSUE IN THE ADVISORY STATEMENT
AND WE MAY REACH WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE SRN DACKS...WHERE WIND
CHILL WARNINGS ARE POSTED.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 30-40 MPH BTWN 3 PM AND 6 PM DUE TO
STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THE DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE SE OF LONG ISLAND AND THE ANTICYCLONE BUILD
IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY AND HAMILTON
COUNTIES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NEW
YORK AND ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND. ALL TIMES ARE FROM 6 PM THROUGH 11AM
SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...THERE STILL COULD SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOR AWHILE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT. OTHERWISE...THE SKY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY CLEAR BUT THE WIND WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DIVE TO NEAR ZERO IN THE CAPITAL REGION...5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES...SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 35-40 MPH RANGE AT TIMES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES HAS PROMPTED
US TO CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES EVERYWHERE TONIGHT EXCEPT WIND
CHILL WARNINGS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THE WIND WILL BE RESULT OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING IN THE GULF
OF MAINE. THE LOW WILL ONLY SLOW FURTHER MOVE AWAY ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD DAY. THE
WIND WILL ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES
ONLY RECOVER TO 20 AT BEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...TEENS FURTHER
NORTH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...ONLY SINGLE NUMBERS OVER
OUR NORTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING MOST OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...BELIEVE IT OR NOT...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT A WEAK
CLIPPER WILL WORK ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER SHOULD
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE CLOUDS
AND THE THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT. THE APPROACHING FRONT
WILL SERVE TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS LOW AS THEY
WOULD HAVE OTHERWISE. STILL LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO
THEN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10
CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEARLY EXCELLENT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST TRENDS FOR THE MONDAY EVENT
HAVE TRENDED NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN.

FOR SUNDAY...FEBRUARY 1ST...ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WE HAVE
BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD AND EITHER STALL OR BECOME ILL-DEFINED THROUGH THE DAY.
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT DOES DIFFER AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH RECENT
TENDENCIES PLACING IT ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I80 CORRIDOR.  THEN
WE QUICKLY SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE APPROACHING OHIO VALLEY SYSTEM.

THE STRONG PV ANOMALY WAS ASHORE ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PER THE
H2O VAPOR ANALYSIS THIS FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO MERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPAWN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS BETWEEN I70-I80. THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC MONDAY MORNING. THE QPF FIELDS AND 2D-FGEN FIELDS LINE UP
MAINLY SOUTH OF I90 ON MONDAY WHERE AN ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT IS
EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE DATA AND PLUMES NOW SUGGEST MORE THAN HALF THE
MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. IN FACT...THE LATEST
30/06Z NAM12 IS FURTHER NORTH AS WELL WITH MODERATE QPF VALUES. WE
WILL REINTRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL MILLER TYPE B EVENT INTO THE HWO
AT THIS TIME. THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT ONLY COLD
BUT WILL OFFER A CHALLENGE WITH RESPECT TO LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS.
THE HIGHER RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 WHERE
VALUES COULD BE APPROACHING 20:1. STILL PLENTY OF TIME AS THIS PV
ANOMALY WILL BE ENTERING THE UPPER AIR NETWORK WHICH
SHOULD...HOPEFULLY...RESOLVE AND NARROW THE SOLUTIONS. AS AN
FYI...EVALUATING THE LATEST CIPS GUIDANCE...MANY OF THE MATCHES DO
BRING AN ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.

THIS WAVE DEPARTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY EVENING AS 1030MB SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW -20C...AND
POTENTIAL FOR A FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL PROVIDE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
A VERY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LOCATIONS ATTEMPT TO APPROACH RECORD LOWS.

THE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN TRANQUIL YET CHILLY.  NEXT ARCTIC
IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  THE TIMING OF THIS ARCTIC FRONTAL AND
TRACK OF A SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE COULD MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING
COASTAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THURSDAY.  WHILE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THIS WAVE OFFSHORE...THERE ARE A FEW OUTLYING
MEMBERS THAT KEEP THIS WAVE CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACCOMPANYING
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...STILL SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL RESULT
IN REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH 20Z AT
KGFL...KALB AND KPSF. ANY LINGERING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
20Z AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT KPOU EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
18Z-20Z. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL
CLEARING AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS...AT TIMES UP TO 30
KNOTS AT KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
8-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

SNOW WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL WILL RANGE
FROM 1-3 INCHES FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...3-6 INCHES
FURTHER NORTH.

ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/WASULA







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