Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 240046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
746 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

Low pressure will move from near Cape Hatteras this evening, to near
Cape Cod by Tuesday evening. This nor easter will bring widespread
precipitation to the area in the form of snow, sleet and rain along
with some strong north easterly winds. The precipitation will
overspread the area this evening and continue through tomorrow
afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will likely occur overnight
tonight into Tuesday morning before tapering off later Tuesday.


The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from until 1 PM
Tuesday for the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Schoharie
Valley, Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, Capital District, Taconics,
Berkshires and northwest CT.

The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM today
until 1 PM on Tuesday for the southern Adirondacks, Lake George
Saratoga Region and southern VT.

The Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Taconics and
western New England through 7 AM Tuesday.

As of 745 PM EST, The 00Z Albany sound is in and sounding has a
tiny warm nose around 790mb at +0.8C, hence the sleet pounding
on the windows here at the office. Real mixed bag of precip as
KALB reporting rain and sleet, no rain here at office, just
sleet and KSCH reporting snow. KPOU reporting mainly rain with
ice pellets occasionally mixing in. We have reports of freezing
rain in Litchfield County Connecticut and Berkshire County
Massachusetts. Real mixed bag of precip types in forecast model
soundings. Minor updates to going forecast based on current obs
and radar loop. Tough forecast tonight.

The latest model guidance/thermal profiles (12Z GFS/ECMWF) are
now colder than the 12Z NAM. This would allow for several hours
of snow and sleet overnight, with some rain possibly mixing in
across Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties. The bulk of the
QPF/snowfall should occur through 6 AM tomorrow morning with
generally 1 to 3 inches of snow/sleet through the Mid- Hudson
valley, Taconics, Greater Capital District and Lake George-
Saratoga Region. Across the western Adirondacks, Mohawk valley,
southern VT, and E Berkshire county can expect generally 3 to 6
inches of snow/sleet. These amounts highly depend on how much
sleet mixes in with the snow, which would cut down on snow
totals. So will have to see how the ptype plays out this evening
and update accordingly.

Easterly winds will be at their strongest
tonight as the region is squeezed between the ridge to the
northeast and deepening storm as it moves off the mid Atlantic


The steadier and heavier precipitation should begin to taper off
by tomorrow afternoon. However, it looks like precip will
persist in the western Adirondacks and S
VT/Berkshires/Litchfield county through tomorrow evening,
though it should be lighter in nature. An additional 1 to 2
inches of snow is possible in the Adirondacks with little to no
snow accumulation elsewhere. Ptype should be mostly snow/sleet
through the morning. But as we lose the ice in the clouds
tomorrow afternoon, ptype could change to drizzle/freezing
drizzle. Temperatures may reach the low to mid 30s tomorrow
afternoon which is only a few degrees warmer than the overnight
lows tonight.


Overall, not much change from the previous excellent forecast.  At
the start of the extended period, a brief period of ridging will be
in place for Wednesday morning. However, a fast moving storm system
will quickly be approaching from the Great Lakes for late in the day
into Wednesday night.  The leading edge mid level jet max will
likely spread cloud coverage into the region through the day with
the best chance for precipitation north and west of Albany.  A
larger storm upstream, a clipper-type storm, will be a moisture
starved northern stream system initially until additional
interactions with the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. With
a s-sw flow ahead of this system, temps will reach the mid 30s to
mid 40s across the area for Wednesday with a partly to mostly cloudy
sky. Some rain showers will be possible by late in the day, mainly
for areas north of the Mohawk River, although the best chance will
likely be on Wednesday night. As colder air works into the region,
the rain showers may change to snow showers and continue through the
end of the week as cyclonic flow remains in place and cold advection
across the relatively open waters of the Great Lakes.

Behind this front, an upper level trough will be situated over the
Northeast heading into the weekend.  This will allow gradually
colder air to work into the region, with temps lowering from the mid
30s to mid 40s to the mid 20s to mid 30s for Friday into the
weekend. As colder air continues to work into the region aloft, some
lake-enhanced and upslope snow showers will be possible, mainly for
across the Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills and
southern Vermont for the late-week period.  A few passing snow
showers/flurries will also be possible from the time to time across
the Lake George-Saratoga Region and Capital Region as well, although
any accumulations looks mainly limited to northern and western parts
of the area, especially across the higher elevations. Sky cover will
be mostly cloudy for the majority of the region due to the lake-
enhanced precip around, but the best chance for seeing some breaks
will be across the mid-Hudson Valley and Northwestern Connecticut.
Lastly, northwest winds will be occasionally gusty at times with
relatively tight pressure gradient.


Conditions will deteriorate from south to north this evening.
Most flight categories will drop to MVFR by later this evening.
As far as precipitation types go, this remains a challenge as
wintry mixture is still expected at KPSF, KALB, KGFL. However,
still expecting KPOU transition toward more rain with some sleet
and snow at times. Some periods of IFR are possible at times at
KGFL, KALB and KPSF with bursts of heavier snow. Precipitation
is expected to taper off Tuesday morning to rain/snow showers,
however, mainly MVFR conditions with low ceilings are forecast
through tuesday.

Winds will be gusty overnight, especially for KPSF, from the east-
northeast or northeast directions tonight.  Occasional gusts over
20KTS with over 30KTS at KPSF. Winds will turn to the northwest
late tuesday at 10 to 20 kts.


Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Thursday Night:  Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.


Widespread precipitation will overspread the area this evening
and is forecast to taper off Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Expecting half of an inch to 1 1/2 inches of QPF across the
forecast, occurring in variety of precipitation types. Snow and
sleet are expected to be the dominate p-type across much of the
area with possibly some rain mixing with sleet across portions
of the Mid-Hudson valley and Litchfield Hills. Minor tidal
flooding is forecast on the Hudson River at Poughkeepsie with
the high tide cycle this evening. The latest MMEFS does not
indicate flooding on any main stems rivers. Expecting within
bank river rises are expected to occur.

Looking at chances for rain and/or snow showers through Thursday
then colder weather with chances for snow showers from Friday
into next weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.


CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-013.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ032-033-
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ054-061-066.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for VTZ013>015.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ013>015.


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