Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 212003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
403 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EDT...ONE COMPACT SHORTWAVE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE
REGION...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE
CATSKILL REGION. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...SO SOME RAIN SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT THROUGH
THE EVENING COMMUTE.

WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS NORTHERN NJ AND EXTREME SE NYS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE REMNANTS OF THIS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/LITCHFIELD CO...AND THE SE CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
WELL.

SHOWERS MAY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESP FOR AREAS E OF THE HUDSON RIVER...AS THE BULK
OF FORCING SHIFTS TO OUR S AND W ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ALSO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IN THE
REGION OF STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...EXPECTING THE GENERAL AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...MAY REMAIN A BIT GREATER
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

SPOTTY DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SHOWERS AS LOW
LEVELS MOISTEN...AND INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS TIME...BARRING ANY SMALLER...UNRESOLVED
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTH...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT OVER OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY. THEREFORE...HAVE INDICATED ONLY CHC POPS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...AND
PIVOTS BACK WESTWARD...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND
THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND NW MA. FURTHER S AND W...AREAL
COVERAGE MAY ONCE AGAIN REMAIN SPOTTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS
EVEN A POSSIBILITY OF SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN SOME
AREAS DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOISTURE DEEPENS
AGAIN FROM NE TO SW LATE IN THE DAY. ASSUMING RAINFALL REMAINS
FAIRLY LIMITED...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.

WED NT-THU...THIS APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODERATE TO PERHAPS LOCALLY HVY
POCKETS OF RAIN...ESP ACROSS HIGHER...E-FACING SLOPES ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...THE SE ADIRONDACKS...AND ALSO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS. THE BULK OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
COMBINATION OF AN E/NE LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT TRANSLATING
WESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA...ALONG WITH DEEP LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AROUND THE W/NW PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOULD FAVOR SOME BANDS OF MOD-HVY RAINFALL PIVOTING
WEST...THEN SW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WED NT INTO AT LEAST THU AM.
AGAIN...AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE SHOULD FAVOR
THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMTS FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO SE
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. A
SECONDARY MAX OF AROUND 2 INCHES APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO UPSLOPE...WHILE A MIN SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE
IMMEDIATE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.5 INCHES
OCCURRING. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
AS WELL...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...BERKSHIRES
AND TACONICS...AND POSSIBLY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO SOME FUNNELING EFFECTS...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH COULD ALSO OCCUR. WED NT MIN TEMPS SHOULD MAINLY FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND MAXES MAY REMAIN BELOW 50 IN
MANY AREAS ON THU DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN AND A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND
FUNNELING COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR SOUTHWARD...WHILE WET BULB
EFFECTS OCCUR WITH THE FALLING RAINFALL. IF THE RAIN DECREASES IN
AREAL COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS WOULD
THEN BE POSSIBLE.

THU NT...SOME ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO ROTATE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...ESP EARLY AND FOR AREAS NEAR
AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT UNSETTLED AND ENDS WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

ON FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW BACK ACRS THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP
CLOUDS ACRS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACRS THE NRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY
TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.

FOR SATURDAY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW LINGER
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NOSING INTO THE FA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY AT THIS POINT LOOK MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A MILDER DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL UPPER IMPULSE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO EXIT THE
KALB...KPOU AND KGFL AREAS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SMALL UPPER IMPULSE WITHIN THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW ARE BUILDING EAST.  SO SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. VARYING COVERAGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO GENERALLY VCSH TONIGHT. THEN...INCREASING
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER ENERGY TRACKS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND THE COASTAL LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HOVER JUST IN THE
VFR RANGE...JUST ABOVE 3000 FEET...BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS...BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. TONIGHT...MAINLY MVFR...BUT SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE...AND THEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AS RAIN INCREASES IN COVERAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FROM
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND
WET AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION.
INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO
EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS...UP TO 2 INCHES...WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS...GENERALLY 0.5 TO
1.5 INCHES...OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







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