Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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804
FXUS61 KALY 082154
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM PASSING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THERE WILL BE THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION. WHILE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
REMAINS QUITE DRY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...EXPECT THAT THE COLUMN WILL SATURATE ENOUGH SUCH
THAT ALL OF THE FA WILL SEE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS RECEIVING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOWS OVERNIGHT
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE COASTAL LOW
WILL TRACK FROM THE DELMARVA REGION TUESDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN HEAD OUT TO SEA. AS A
RESULT OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THERE
WILL BE OFF AND ON SNOWFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S
WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S WITH LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 20.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AMOUNTS BUT WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE COLD AIR
FUNNELING ACROSS THE LAKE...EXPECT A PRETTY STRONG BAND TO SET UP
WITH A FAIRLY LONG FETCH AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE SHEAR. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SLATED FOR
THE WEEKEND.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH A PASSAGE OF MID LATITUDE TROUGH INTRODUCING
COLD AIR (BUT THE NOT THE COLDEST) THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS AIR MASS
WILL COME THE USUAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY/SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS AND PERHAPS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS POINT THE FLOW LOOKS TO
BE SHEARED FOR OPTIMAL (HEAVY) LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT WE WILL
REEVALUATE THAT THREAT AS WE LATER INTO THE WEEK.

THE REST OF THE AREA WILL DRY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT COLD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS
NORTH. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH/TEENS SOUTH.

THEN...A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX...WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE
AND PLUNGE SOUTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON INTO OUR REGION.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NANOOK AIR MASS COULD TOUCH OFF A BRIEF ROUND OF
SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FEATURE
WOULD LIGHT...SNOW SQUALLS COULD PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELS. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY SQUALLS IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE WILL PINPOINT TIMES
AS WE NEAR FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE BITTERLY...IF NOT BRUTALLY COLD. A STIFF NORTHWEST OR NORTH
WIND WILL ADD TO THE COLD. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS...SINGLE NUMBERS MOST OF THE ELEVATED TERRAIN ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES MIGHT ACTUALLY REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKPARK. THE WIND WILL LIKELY DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
THE ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
ELEVATED AREAS...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS.

AS IF THAT WASN`T ENOUGH...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL
OCEAN STORM TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE BUT STILL POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF BRINGING SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR SHOW SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...JUST
WENT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD WITH LOWS LOOK FOR REACH ZERO ABOUT
5 BELOW CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD....-5 TO -15 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME BREEZE STIRRING SO AGAIN WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD VERY WELL BE PUSHED INTO THE ADVISORY OR WARNING LEVELS.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN BITTERLY COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 10-15 IN THE
VALLEY...0 TO 10 ABOVE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST IT LOOKS PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY BUT STILL BREEZY.

BY MONDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE TO OUR EAST...A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW A MODERATION IN THE BITTER COLD AIR TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...


AS OF 2200Z...WE WENT AHEAD AND UPDATE ALL THE TAFS AS IT IS NOW
LOOKS CERTAIN LIGHT SNOW WILL NEVERTHELESS DROP CONDITIONS
TO AT LEAST IFR FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL 00Z AT
KPOU AND KPSF AND UNTIL 04Z AT KALB AND KGFL.

WE MIGHT HAVE TO EXTEND THE IFR SNOW LONGER BUT FOR NOW
THIS IS OUR BEST CONFIDENCE.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHEAST AT KGFL AND KPSF 5-10KTS...MORE
NORTHERLY AT KPOU AND KALB.

STILL THINKING ONCE THE SNOW MOVES AWAY OVERNIGHT...WE RETURN
TO VFR WITH CLOUDS BASES WELL OVER 3000 FEET AGL.

AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH KPOU-KPSF WITH
A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL PLACE A VCSH AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BRISK. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY LATER IN THE WEEK...ICE COVER
ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WILL BE BITTERLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE LAST TIME WE HAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO WAS:

ALBANY NY:
-9 DEGREES ON FEBRUARY 24, 2015
NOTE: THE LOW ON MARCH 6, 2015 WAS ZERO DEGREES

GLENS FALLS NY:
-15 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

POUGHKEEPSIE NY:
-2 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

BENNINGTON VT:
-11 DEGREES ON MARCH 6, 2015

PITTSFIELD MA:
-4 DEGREES ON MARCH 7, 2015


THE RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 14 ARE:

ALBANY: -10 DEGREES SET IN 1987

GLENS FALLS: -24 DEGREES SET IN 2003

POUGHKEEPSIE: -14 DEGREES SET IN 1979

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...11
CLIMATE...



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