Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 020824
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
424 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, cooler and less humid air
will move into the region today along with breezy conditions. Nearby
high pressure will allow for dry weather through the entire holiday
weekend, with temperatures warming back above normal by Independence
Day.  Continued dry weather with warm temperatures will be in place
for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 424 AM EDT...Surface cold front is now east of the entire
county warning area and west winds are allowing for cooler and
less humid air to move into the region. IR satellite imagery
continues to show some patches of low clouds, especially over the
higher elevations, thanks to some low level moisture trapped
behind the departing front. However, these clouds should quickly
dissipate after sunrise, as surface heating and cooler temps
moving in aloft promote good mixing.

As a result, it looks to be dry today with a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Just some diurnal cu will develop over the higher
elevations today, as the upper level trough passes by well to our
north over southern Canada. Temps will be a little cooler than
Friday with highs generally in the 70s. Humidity will be
noticeably less than Friday as well, with dewpoints falling into
the low 50s over much of the area. In addition, the good mixing
will promote breezy conditions by afternoon, with some gusts of 20
to 30 MPH possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue to dominate through the entire short
term period.

With high pressure in control, clear skies will be in place for
tonight into Sunday with continued dry weather. Lows will fall
into the 50s everywhere tonight, except some upper 40s will occur
over the central Adirondacks. With the upper trough moving away,
heights and temps aloft will start to rise. This should allow highs
on Sunday to be a little warmer, with max temps in the mid 70s to
low 80s over much of the region. Lows will once again be in the
50s for Sunday night with mainly clear skies.

High pressure will start to shift eastward, allowing for a return
flow for Monday (the Fourth of July). It should still be dry,
though, although southern areas may see a few more clouds. With
850 hpa temps warming to 12 to 15 degrees C, temps will start to
be warmer with highs reaching the low to middle 80s. Dewpoints
temps will still be fairly comfortable in the 50s.

An upper level disturbance will be moving from the Ohio Valley
towards the mid-Atlantic coast for Monday night. Model and
ensemble guidance is in pretty good agreement on this system
generally staying south of the region, with any showers or
t-storms well south of the region. Will allow just a slight chc
of showers for far southern areas in case the guidance shifts
northward, but most places look to stay completely dry with a
partly to mostly clear sky. Lows will be in the mid 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level zonal flow sets up across eastern North America with
small weak wrinkles in the upper pattern mainly tracking south of
our region. Very gradual flat upper ridging building into the
eastern U.S. will result in slowly warming temperatures and
humidity. Some of the weak upper energy within the zonal flow could
support isolated showers and thunderstorms in the mountains Thursday
afternoon and evening.

By Friday...there are hints that some stronger upper energy could
approach from the Great Lakes along with an associated cold front.
There are considerable disagreements in guidance as to the timing
and strength of the upper energy and cold front. So...indicating
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon...but the best
coverage of showers and thunderstorms may be beyond Friday afternoon.

Highs Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s...but around 80 in higher
terrain.  Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the 80s to around 90. Just
a degree or two cooler Friday if there is more coverage of
convective clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front is exiting the region and the last line of
thunderstorms is east of the TAF sites. Ceilings and visibilities
behind the cold front are VFR...although some ceilings around 3000
to 3500 feet are possible intermittently...mainly at KGFL but
indicating scattered 3500 feet at KALB and KPSF also. Steady west to
northwest winds and drying at low levels should prevent fog through
the rest of the early morning hours.  VFR conditions with just
intervals of scattered clouds above 3000 feet this
morning...afternoon and evening.

West to northwest winds around 10 kt through day break...with maybe
some brief gusts near 20 kt at KALB and KPSF but not enough frequency
to put into TAFs. By around 14Z west to northwest winds increase
everywhere to 10 to 20 kt and gusts to 20 to 25 kt. Winds diminish
to less than 10 kt by 23Z...and through the evening.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Low RH Values and Gusty Winds This Holiday Weekend...

Despite some locally heavier rainfall totals on Friday, much of
the region has been rather dry lately and has seen under a quarter
inch of rainfall in the past few days. High pressure will allow
for dry weather this weekend, with no precipitation expected.

During daytime mixing, RH values will fall to 35 to 50 percent
this afternoon and 30 to 40 percent on both Sunday and Monday. In
addition, west to northwest winds be 10 to 20 MPH this afternoon
with some higher gusts. West winds will also be 10 to 15 MPH on
Sunday and 5 to 10 MPH on Monday.

With the dry weather, breezy conditions, low RH values, and
holiday weekend occurring, localized fire weather concerns are
possible through Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather has been a common theme this year, with many reporting
sites showing rainfall deficits of 3 to 7 inches below normal
levels. According to the USGS, streamflow levels are running below
normal over many parts of the region. The US Drought Monitor has
much of the region in either the D0 (Abnormally Dry) or D1
(Moderate Drought) categories.

Behind a departing cold front, dry and breezy conditions will be
in place over the weekend. Temperatures will moderate back above
normal next week with continued dry weather. The next chance for
any rain won`t be until at least Thursday or Friday, as another
cold front approaches.

Some minor rises occurred on smaller rivers and streams due to
rainfall from the scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
Water levels will recede back today, and river and stream levels
will generally then hold steady through much of the upcoming
week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...Frugis



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