Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 272352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE
REGION...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF ALBANY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY
EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND SW
VT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE TOWARD AND JUST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO THE
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...ESP FOR UPSLOPE AREAS EAST OF THE
ALBANY. THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE AIDED BY A SFC
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS
INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OUT OF THE NORTH
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 20S...ALTHOUGH SOME TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESP FOR UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH JUST A COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE CAPITAL
REGION...SARATOGA AREA...AND MID HUDSON VALLEY...1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TACONICS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SNOW...IT LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOUDY...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
MOST AREAS WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR SNOW LOOKS TO BE
ENDING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AND
THE FLOW STARTS TO SHIFT TO THE NW AND DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING
INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT FOR SAT
NIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A RATHER COLD NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
BE IN THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE RATHER CHILLY...ALTHOUGH SOME SUN WILL FINALLY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY...AFTER SEVERAL CLOUDY DAYS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 20S.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
BE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH MAY
CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR VALLEY AREAS BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...AND MANY AREAS MAY WIND UP STAYING
DRY...BUT SOME SCT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPS LOOK TO BE MID 30S TO MID 40S
FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY...TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD GET CLOSE TO
50 BY MON AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. WILL MENTION A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY...AS WE
WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME
SUNSHINE IS LIKELY EARLY. WE WILL THEN HAVE TO WATCH A CLIPPER-TYPE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD
ACTUALLY BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE
TRACK OF THE LOW IS IN QUESTION THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHILE
THE GFS IS FARTHER NORTH AND HAS QPF OCCURRING FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR AREA. WITH SUCH A FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
OUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW.

A WARMUP THEN APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIKELY FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALLOWING FOR MILDER AIR TO PUSH
NORTHWARD. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARMING AS A POTENTIAL WARM FRONT AND/OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR THE MAIN COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...AS THE GFS IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DELAYS IT UNTIL SATURDAY. MODELS DO AGREE THE
MAIN CYCLONE WILL PASS BY NORTH OF THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A WARMUP AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESP AT KGFL AND KPSF.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD COULD BRING SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING
IN -SHSN. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS EXPECTED -SHSN
ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE N-NW AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOP OBSERVATIONS
AND NOHRSC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS
IN PLACE AT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY HAVE A TRACE TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...COOL...CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO RELATED PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON
RIVERS AND STREAMS. LITTLE PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...AND
ANY PRECIP THAT DOES OCCUR WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVERS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY FALL OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...ONLY A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
EVENING. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND ALL AREAS
MAY NOT SEE PRECIP AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BELOW FREEZING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW BUT GRADUAL
MELT ON THE SNOWPACK IN PLACE...AND RIVER ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DECREASE AND ROT AWAY. A RAPID WARMUP OR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ISN/T EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...KL/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...KL/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS


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