Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 260833
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
433 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP IT BRISK AND COOL TODAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 433 AM EDT...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE IS FINALLY MOVING EAST OF THE
SRN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT THIS MORNING. A FEW CG LTG STRIKES
CONTINUE. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY...AS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE TODAY DUE TO A CLOSED
H500 LOW OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.

SHORT-WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL FOCUS SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -1C TO +1C OVER THE
FCST AREA WITH DEEP MIXING TO H900-H850. SOME DECENT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER IS EXPECTED WITH H850 WINDS OF 30-35 KTS. BRISK W TO NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE
LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY /MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN/. SOME SUNSHINE WILL MIX WITH
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS WILL
BE A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F FROM THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN TACONICS SOUTH AND EAST. LOWER TO M50S
WILL BE COMMON IN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...CAPITAL
DISTRICT...UPPER HUDSON REGION...PARTS OF SRN VT...AND PORTIONS
OF THE BERKSHIRES. MID AND U40S WILL BE COMMON OVER PARTS OF THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN GREENS...SRN DACKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OVER
NRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS. A DECENT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS OVER THE FCST AREA FOR THE WINDS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
SOME UPSLOPE OR LAKE EFFECT SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN
DACKS. SOME THE RAINFALL WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS
OF A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
COLD ADVECTION REGIME. IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW...EXPECT COLD TEMPS IN
THE M30S TO NEAR 40F IN THE VALLEYS...AND LOWER TO M30S OVER THE
MTNS.

MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE NOSING INTO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING BACK UP INTO THE +7C TO +11C RANGE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GFS. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL SOME
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE. HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH M50S TO NEAR 60F IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND U40S TO M50S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MON NIGHT FROM THE S/SW TO THE
N/NE. SOME RADITIONAL COOLING MAY OCCUR NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION EARLY...AND THEN TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT. A FEW
THERMAL ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY SCRAPE THE SRN DACKS BTWN 06Z-12Z.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M30S TO L40S WHICH WERE ABOUT A CATEGORY
WARMER THAN THE GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY-TUESDAY...A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPS
RUNNING A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE H500 RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF WRN NEW ENGLAND BY 18Z/TUE. A SFC CYCLONE APPROACHES
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND S-CNTRL ONTARIO. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE AREA DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. OVERALL..AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED FOR LATE
OCTOBER. HIGHS BE IN THE M60S TO L70S OVER THE REGION...AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME MID AND U40S OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.  SO...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S.

UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA...WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...THEN COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.  TRAILING UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE
A DYNAMIC UPPER CUT OFF LOW.  HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL OBSERVED WEATHER IN OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES SEEMS TO BE TRACKING RIGHT OVER
THE INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN U.S. OR THROUGH THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...
OR ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN. AS THE UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEREVER IT ENDS UP...HOWEVER STRONG OR WEAK IT IS...AND
WHATEVER THE TIMING EVENTUALLY IS...GENERALLY MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.  MIDLEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP
AND THICKEN AS MOISTURE IS INCREASINGLY DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE
DEVELOPING UPPER ENERGY...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY UPPER JET
ENERGY.

SO...WITH SUCH A HUGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE OUT IN THE 6-7 DAY TIME
FRAME...JUST GOING WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.  SOME
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.  HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER
40S SOUTH.

WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO SEE IF SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT DOES DEVELOP OR IF LIMITED UPSTREAM DATA THIS FAR OUT
CAUSED GUIDANCE TO CREATE A PHANTOM THAT MAY DISAPPEAR AS WE GET
CLOSER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STACKED LOW JUST TO OUR NORTH OVER QUEBEC WILL MOVE GRADUALLY
NORTHEASTWARD EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY
MORNING AS PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATE ABOUT IT.

THE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE LOW WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG WITH SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE
SHOWERS AND ARE MOST LIKELY AT KPSF DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE ALOFT AND
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.

WILL HAVE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY RESULTING IN BRISK AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.  GUSTS
WELL INTO THE 20S ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KALB AS
THE FLOW FUNNELS DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP IT BRISK AND COOL TODAY WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IMPACTING EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.  A WARM FRONT WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MILD
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RETURNING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHTER AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. LIGHT WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45 TO 75 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THEN HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY
MORNING. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. SOME
CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BASING AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
TENTH TO QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA








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