Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 260603
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
203 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight.  The boundary will lift back northward as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions will persist for the
holiday weekend with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 145 AM EDT...all was quiet on all fronts in spite of a weak
cold front draped over our northern section, slipping southward.
This is a very weak shallow feature, and with very little moisture
or forcing we do not expect any convection to happen tonight.

We will enjoy a mild summery night with lows dipping to around 60
Albany southward in the Hudson valley, 50s most other places with a
few upper 40s across the Adirondacks. The wind will be light or
calm.

Some patches of fog will form, but not as much as last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Later today...most of the day should be dry...as our forecast leans
closer to the latest NAM/EC trends with the front starting to lift
back north as a warm front during the afternoon time frame. The
Showalter stability values do not become very negative...and it will
take a little time for the low-level moisture to increase.
Clouds will increase from the south and west during the
afternoon...with the best chc of showers or a thunderstorm west of
the Hudson River Valley. Highs will again run above normal by
10-15 degrees with highs in the mid 80s /with a few upper 80s in
the mid Hudson Valley/ in valley locations...and 70s to lower 80s
over the hills and mountains.

Tonight...The better synoptic lift with the warm front is during
this time frame. Weak elevated instability is implied with pockets
of Showalter values of 0 to -2C. The weak warm advection should
help expand the shower and thunderstorm coverage ahead of weak
midlevel short-wave with the front. High chc pops were kept in the
forecast with the chc of showers and thunderstorms. Lows will be
of the wet bulb variety in the upper 50 to mid 60s.

Friday...Some residual showers and thunderstorms will persist from
the Capital Region north and east in the morning. Sfc dewpoints into
the lower to mid 60s in the warm sector. It will become hot and
humid with H850 temps rising to +15C to +17C with highs in the
upper 80s to near 90F in the lower elevations...and u70s to mid
80s over the hills and mountains. Some pop-up thunderstorms may
occur in the afternoon.

Fri night into Saturday...The subtropical or Bermuda high builds
in with heights exceeding 585 dams at H500. It will be warm and
humid with lows in the 60s with any diurnally driven convection
diminishing quickly Fri night. Some differential heating/pop-up
showers and thunderstorms are possible especially SAT afternoon.
Despite increasing CAPE and PWATS /1-1.5"/ their is no clear
trigger to focus convection and a low to mid level CAP should be
setting up to suppress it. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the above normal PWATS. Highs once again will be in the 80s
with some lower 90s in the valley locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A Bermuda high is expected to have a hold of the eastern United
States. Our region will be in the warm sector of a low pressure
system for the latter half of the long holiday weekend. This places
us in a warm and unstable airmass with chances for convection each
day mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, it
appears the low pressure system`s cold front should cross the region
late Monday night/Tuesday morning. With the flow aloft becoming
zonal over the region the cold front is expected to stall to are
south likely in the vicinity of I-80 and the New York Metropolitan
area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Overall highs are expected to run above normal by around 10 degrees
both for highs and lows.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expect overnight through the day. The only
exception was KGFL where we decided to throw in a three hour TEMPO
for mvfr mist from 08Z-11Z. Otherwise the crossover temperatures
was calculated to be in the lower 50s and most of the TAF sites
will not get that low overnight and should preclude any fog.

There will be varying amounts of mid and high clouds through today
after the morning peak, but all should be easily above the 3 KFT
MVFR/VFR threshold.

A weak boundary working southward tonight (with no fanfare) will
begin lifting northward later on the day. Now it will have more
moisture and possible short wave to work with, so shower threats
will increase with perhaps a thunderstorm later this afternoon into
the evening. For now, just assigned VCSH to all TAFs after 22Z and
kept flying conditions at VFR.

A light or calm wind will become southerly 5-10KTS by midday into
the afternoon and stay that way into the evening hours.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front will move across the region
tonight. The boundary will lift back northward...as a warm front
tomorrow into tomorrow night with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

The RH values will recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight...and then
lower to 35 to 45 percent tomorrow afternoon. Expect a nearly full
recovery Thursday night to 90 to 100 percent with showers and
thunderstorms around.

The winds will decrease from the southwest to northwest at 10 to
20 mph...to light in variable in direction at 5 mph or less
tonight. The winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10
mph tomorrow into tomorrow night.

Warm and humid conditions will persist for the holiday weekend
with the Bermuda high in control...as isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.
This feature will bring humid days and nights will a full RH
recovery.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrology issues are anticipated through at least
the next 5 days ending Monday.

A warm front will bring isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.
Rainfall amounts will vary from a few hundredths to a quarter of
an inch or so locally.

As a Bermuda high forms, we can expect warm and increasingly
humid weather Friday through the weekend. While most of that time
will be rainfree, there is an increasing chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms each day. These look scattered...but as
precipitable water values increase well above normal in the inch
to an inch and a half range, then locally heavy rainfall will
possible through the holiday weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/Wasula



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