Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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002
FXUS61 KALY 281045
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
645 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will ridge in from eastern Quebec today
into tonight with mainly dry and seasonable temperatures...except
for some isolated showers or sprinkles across western New England. A
slow moving low pressure system near the Ohio Valley will gradually
move towards New York and New England with an increase of scattered
showers Thursday into Friday with cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 645 AM EDT...Observations indicate areas of locally dense
fog have formed across the Hudson River Valley and parts of
eastern NY and western New England. The fog has been expanded to
areas in the grids until 9 am or so. The fog should burn off by
the late morning with clouds persisting east of the Hudson River
Valley.

A cutoff low continues to swirl over the western Great Lakes
Region this morning. The cutoff will slowly descend
south/southeast into the Midwest today. Meanwhile...the Northeast
will be under the influence of southwest flow aloft. A stationary
front remains off the New England and East Coast with a sfc
anticyclone ridging in from east/northeast Quebec. The
return...onshore flow from the sfc high will focus some isolated
showers/sprinkles along the east facing slopes of the southern
Greens...Berkshires and Litchfield hills today. Most of the
forecast area will remain dry.

With the weak backdoor style front pushing southwest from
northern New England...H850 temps will range from +6 to +7C over
southern VT to +9C to +10C over the Catskills and Mid Hudson
Valley. Highs will be near normal in mid and upper 60s in the
valley areas...except the CT River Valley in southern VT where
upper 50s to lower 60s are likely...and mid 50s to lower 60s will
be common over the mountains. Northeast to southeast winds will
prevail at 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...Much of the evening period should end up dry with the threat
of isolated to scattered showers moving in from the south and west
with an impulse moving north/northeast from the cutoff cyclone
centered over IN towards daybreak. The low level baroclinic zone
between the large anticylone near southeast Quebec/Northern
ME...and the double barrel low pressure system over the OH Valley...and
Mid Atlantic Region strengthens. The best chance for scattered
showers will be from the Capital Region south and east before day
break. Lows will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s across the
forecast area.

Thu-Thu night...The cutoff low actually wobbles further
south/southeast towards KY/TN. A short-wave pivots around the
cyclone. There is still quite a bit of disparity in the
NAM/EC/GFS/Canadian Guidance on how far north and east the short-
wave impacts the region. The GFS/ECMWF mainly have locations from
the Mohawk Valley/southern Dacks/Capital Region having a bout of
showers...and then a decrease in them during the afternoon and
early evening. Previous CSTAR research has documented that cutoffs
are always challenging to forecast in terms of the timing of rain
and the amounts. This trend continues with this event. Chance pops
were mainly used from the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region south and
west with slight chc pops or no pops further north east with the
ridge trying to still build in. Temps will be seasonable and
slight cooler than previous days with upper 50s to lower 60s over
the elevated terrain...and mid and upper 60s in the valley areas.
Lows Thu night will be similar to the previous night with mid 40s
to lower 50s in the maritime air mass.

Fri-Fri night...The trend increases for more scattered showers on
the guidance...as the cutoff continues to spin over OH Valley.
A weak wave or inverted trough sets up over the New England/Mid
Atlantic coast with better moisture advection coming in from the
south and east. High chc pops were used with some areas of likely
values. The fetch of Atlantic moisture increases with a
strengthening east to southeast H850-700 low-level jet. We leaned
closer to the cooler GFSMOS guidance with lots of clouds and
periods of showers. Highs should be below normal with mid 50s to
lower 60s over the forecast area. Lows will show little change
from the previous days with mid 40s to around 50F north and east
of the Tri Cities...and upper 40s to mid 50s south and west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Biggest forecast challenge during the extended period with be
regarding the exact track and timing of an upper level low and the
placement of precipitation around this feature. The upper level low,
which looks to be situated west of the area over the weekend, will
track over and across the region for early next week.

During the weekend, the upper level low will be situated somewhere
over the Midwest/Ohio Valley Region.  With a southerly flow ahead of
this system, plenty of moisture will be advected into the area from
the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean.  PWAT values look to
climb to around 1.50 inches or higher (at least 1 and up to 3 STD
above normal).  With the cyclonic flow in place, some showers will
be possible over the weekend, especially on Saturday and across
southern areas, when the low and mid level flow is out of the S-SE,
which will promote upslope flow into the Catskills.  Although there
could be some brief burst of heavy rainfall, any rainfall is much
needed across the region.  On and off showers look to occur each day
with a mostly cloudy sky.

With plenty of clouds in place, there won`t be a large diurnal range
each day.  Temps over the weekend look to reach the 60s during the
day with 50s at night.

As the upper level low starts to shift eastward, the chance for
precip will start to decrease from west to east.  Just when the
threat ends will depend on when the upper level low exits to the
east, which could be as early as Monday night, as shown in some
model solutions. Once the upper level low exits, heights look to
rise, as ridging builds in for the mid week period.  Will continue
to allow a chance for showers into Monday, but will decrease for Mon
night into Tuesday. High temps look to reach the mid to upper 60s
for Mon/Tues, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some low clouds/mist has been ongoing this morning at all TAF sites.
With sunrise now underway, daytime heating/mixing will begin and
helps dissipate any lingering fog/mist/low clouds.  Will allow for
some MVFR/IFR conditions for the next few hours until it can fully
dissipate.

After the morning fog/mist, VFR conditions are expected for much of
the day for the valley sites of KGFL/KALB/KPOU with sct-bkn cigs at
3500-5000 ft. Meanwhile, flying conditions look primarily MVFR at
KPSF with bkn cigs at 2000-3000 ft there, thanks to upslope flow.
East to southeast winds will be 5-10 kts, with the strongest winds
occurring at KALB.

By this evening, some MVFR cigs will develop at KPOU thanks to
increasing low level moisture and MVFR conditions look to continue
at KPSF. VFR conditions may continue for a little bit longer at
KGFL/KALB, although ceilings will start to lower and cloud coverage
will also increase for these sites as well. East to northeast winds
will be around 5 kts for tonight.  It should be dry through much of
the night for all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday through Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will ridge in from eastern Quebec today
into tonight with mainly dry and seasonable temperatures...except
for some isolated showers or sprinkles across western New England. A
slow moving low pressure system near the Ohio Valley will gradually
move towards New York and New England with an increase of scattered
showers Thursday into Friday with cooler temperatures.

The RH values will lower only to 50 to 70 percent this
afternoon...and have an excellent recovery to close to 100 percent
tonight. The RH values will remain elevated in the 55 to 75
percent range Thursday afternoon.

The winds will vary from the northeast to southeast at 5 to 15mph
on today. They will be north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph tonight
into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydro issues are expected the next 5 days ending on
Sunday.

Isolated to scattered showers may return tonight into the weekend
with a cutoff cyclone. The amount of rainfall is uncertain during
the stretch, but totals of a quarter to three quarters of an inch
will be possible in some locations depending on the track of the
cutoff. At this time, the best potential for rainfall will along
and south of Interstate 90 into the weekend. Locations further
north and east may only have lights amounts of rainfall...mainly
under a quarter of an inch.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released on September 22nd shows drought
conditions have changed very little across the region. The next
issuance will be on September 29th. For details visit:
www.drought.gov

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula



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