Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KAPX 251053
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
653 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

...PERIODS OF SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT...NO SEVERE STORMS ANTICIPATED.

PATTERN OVERVIEW: CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW/SHORT WAVE IS SLOWLY
MIGRATING INTO THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING. ATTENDING SFC LOW IS
MOVING INTO SW MINNESOTA WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH ILLINOIS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD FRONT STRETCHING
DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT STRETCHES THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN WITH ONGOING NARROW AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN
SHOWERS LIFTING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN. PRECIP CUTS OFF SHARPLY DOWN
THROUGH THE SRN LAKES REGION WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF A DRY SLOT
EDGING INTO THE REGION. WE/VE HAD SOME ISOLATED CLOUD-CLOUD
LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP...WHERE
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOSING INTO THE REGION AND
SHOWERS LOOK A BIT MORE BUBBLY ON RADAR.

UPSTREAM...ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING INTO
THE MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH DEFORMATION PRECIP
WRAPPING BACK UP THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS.

PATTERN FORECAST: MID LEVEL WAVE EXPECTED TO OPEN UP TODAY AND
SLIDE THROUGH THE NRN LAKES REGION LATER THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE
ATTENDING SFC LOW TRACKS THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER THROUGH
TONIGHT.

THIS MORNING...INITIAL AXIS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP
THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THROUGH EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DIMINISHING S-N PRECIP CHANCES AS
DRY SLOT NOSES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP BAND NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. BUT
I HAVEN/T SEEN ANY LIGHTNING IN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WILL
THUS LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. THEN...WILL
SEE SOME SORT OF A BREAK IN PRECIP FOR LATER IN THE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ADVANCES
INTO THE NRN LAKES REGION LATER IN THE DAY BEFORE TRACKING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. COUPLED WITH NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS
SLIDING UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE NRN
LAKES REGION. INSTABILITY AXIS SLIPS ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS SRN LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SFC WARM
FRONT. BUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF M-72.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: WELL ADVERTISED LATE WEEKEND/
EARLY WORK WEEK RAIN EVENT IS UNDERWAY AS WE MAINTAIN A TIGHT
THERMAL GRADIENT OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THANKS UPSTREAM
CANADIAN BLOCKING PUTTING NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN THE "SQUEEZE PLAY"
BETWEEN THAT AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
POTENTIALLY DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BLOCK YIELDS LITTLE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT FROM
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING. ADDRESSING MIDWEEK SYSTEM IN TERMS
OF IF AND WHEN PRECIP MAY ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

DETAILS: BY TUESDAY MORNING THE THREAT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ENDS
RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEP LAYER DRYING IS UNDERWAY.
AS MENTIONED BY THE PRIOR SHIFT...LOW LEVELS MAY NOT FAIR AS WELL...
HOWEVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE LINGERS SUB-850 MB
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NRN LOWER...THUS
PLAGUING US WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE. STILL EXPECTING MANY AREAS TO SEE SOME
SUN BY THE MID-AFTERNOON...NORTHERN AREAS FIRST WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS
LIKELY STRIP AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RATHER COOL
OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOW-MID
30S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION
INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN
BLOCKING OVER NE QUEBEC MIDWEEK ALLOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN WEDGED ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING VERY LITTLE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT...WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

THE THEME CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS ULTIMATELY SHEARS OUT AND
SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH RELATION TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION PAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL GO AHEAD AND CONTINUE SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THURSDAY...BUT HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE OF ANY
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL MAKING IT THIS FAR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WEDGED IN OVER THE NRN LAKES FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER...MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL PLEASANT SPRING
WEATHER. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WITH A SIMILAR FEEL TO THE WED-THURS
SYSTEM... LITTLE CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO HOW THE DETAILS WILL PLAY OUT
IN TERMS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 50S THURSDAY...RISING TO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NEAR NORMAL LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...

LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT...KEEPING THE WARM FRONT AND MUCH OF THE WARM AIR BOTTLED
UP ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS IS NOW LIFTING
UP THROUGH NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND HAS ALREADY CLEARED
THE TVC/MBL TERMINAL SITES WHERE VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN INTACT AT THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. PLN/APN STILL HAVE A FEW MORE HOURS OF STEADY
RAINFALL TO GET THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CIGS LOWERING TO
MVFR.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALTHOUGH LOW CIGS MAY LINGER AT PLN/APN. BUT A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE CIGS LOWER TO (OR REMAIN) MVFR
(POSSIBLY IFR) AT ALL TERMINAL SITES TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR BLEEDS
BACK INTO THE REGION. TVC/MBL MIGHT SEE ISOLATED THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT TSTM PROBABILITIES ARE TO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS POINT.

WINDS...GUSTY FROM THE EAST TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND BACK NORTHEAST TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND BACK
MORE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS/WAVES WILL IMPACT ALL MARINE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
LIKELY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>348.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LHZ349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ341-342.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ323-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.