Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 182321 AAA
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
721 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL POKE INTO MICHIGAN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN
HEAD OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WET WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
PERHAPS LASTING INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BECOME MILDER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE COOLING OFF YET AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...RATHER QUIET WEATHER THOUGH STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF
THINGS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

OVERVIEW: A COOL ONE FOR SURE TODAY...WITH OVERHEAD THERMAL TROUGHING
TIED TO DEEPER PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO YIELD...DESPITE TIME OF YEAR...AND HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A SMIDGE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. HEIGHTS
STEADILY ON THE REBOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FAR WESTERN LAKES...
PART OF PROGRESSIVE AND RATHER ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN. SURFACE FEATURES DOMINATED BY EXTENSIVE CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO OUR AREA...AND ONE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS.
POTENTIALLY FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP LATE.

DETAILS: OVERHEAD TROUGHING GIVES WAY TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY EARLY
MORNING...WITH ITS SURFACE LIKENESS BUILDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE JUST A FEW HOURS SOONER. DRY WEATHER NO DOUBT PREVAILS...WITH
DEEP DRY LAYER UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. UPSTREAM HIGH/MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THINNING ON ITS LEADING EDGE SUGGESTS IT MAY STRUGGLE TO DO SO.
DON`T THINK WE WILL GET QUITE AS COLD AS UPSTREAM AREAS OBSERVED
LAST NIGHT (WIDESPREAD TEENS)...BUT TRIFECTA OF LIGHT WINDS/CLEARING
SKIES/DRY AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW READINGS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S
(WITH ISOLATED TEENS EASILY DOABLE IN ICE BOX LOCATIONS OF INTERIOR
NORTHERN LOWER). ABOVE COOLING AND LESS THAN ANTICIPATED MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON (ELEVATED DEW POINTS) SUPPORTS INHERITED PATCHY FOG
WORDING LATE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...DRY SATURDAY/POTENTIALLY SOGGY EASTERN SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SUNDAY/MONDAY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ON ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH AN ACTIVE PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN SUPPLYING THE
ENERGY ACROSS THE CONUS.  A PAIR OF SPLIT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
CROSSING THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...LEAD WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  ANOTHER WAVE WAS HEADING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WITH A
SUBTROPICAL BRANCH WAVE TRACKING TOWARD NORTHWEST MEXICO.  THIS
PATTERN OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS WITHIN MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AND AN
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POTENTIALLY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFYING OF THE FLOW PATTERN AS
NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE
UPPER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS
MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.  GREAT BASIN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES MICHIGAN
SUNDAY.  REINFORCING PACIFIC ORIGIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO
INTERACT WITH THIS LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SPIN UP A SURFACE
LOW IN THE VICINITY IN THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): A SOGGY EASTER SUNDAY AND
CONCERNS ABOUT WHAT IMPACT THAT WILL HAVE ON ALREADY ELEVATED RIVER
LEVELS. SUNDAY TEMPERATURES AS WELL...BETWEEN WHAT I THINK MAY
HAPPEN VERSUS WHAT GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO DEPICT WITH MUCH
VARIANCE.

NEAR TERM (SATURDAY/SUNDAY): SURFACE THROUGH MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BE IN PLACE TO START SATURDAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW OVER THE MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER WITH A
COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA.  LOW
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FEEDING A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG A WARM FRONTAL SURFACE.  SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
BE ONGOING TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING...AND WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE FEED.
INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN AS RIDGING GIVES WAY...BUT DRY LOW LAYERS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE DAY.  MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED NORTH DURING THE DAY
WITH MORE SUN SOUTH.  LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING IN A NARROW AXIS OF
DECENT MOISTURE (0.75-1.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER)...WITH FORCING
LIKELY AIDED BY SOME ENTRANCE REGION JET FORCING.  SO RAIN THREAT TO
INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER PROBABLY STAYING DRY UNTIL EASTER MORNING.
POTENTIAL RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT OF 0.50+ INCH ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER.

LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...TURNING BETTER RAIN THREAT SOUTH OF THE STRAITS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  OVERALL FORCING BY THEN WILL BE WEAKENING
WITH MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE...SO QPF POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED AS INTENSITY AND/OR COVERAGE WANES.
WILL TRY TO END PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON
(THOUGH LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER)...AND POSSIBLE THAT AREAS NEAR
SAGINAW BAY MAY STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
TREND THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL
BE RATHER INTERESTING...GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY WARM ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.  CAN SEE WARMER
TEMPERATURES UP TOWARD THE M-55 CORRIDOR...BUT 60S DEPICTED IN SOME
GUIDANCE CREEPING TOWARD M-72/M-32 SEEMS A BIT HIGH GIVEN EXPECTED
WEATHER SO HAVE TRIED TO TEMPER THOSE HIGHS TO SOME DEGREE (UPPER
40S TIP OF THE MITT TO UPPER 50S SOUTH OF M-72).  RAIN LIKELY AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER...POSSIBLY WITH A BETTER DEFINED
"SURGE" OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST.

MEDIUM RANGE (MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY):  NEXT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER LAKES REGION TO START NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT FORECAST CYCLOGENESIS LIKELY SENDING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO MICHIGAN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.  RAIN WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH A DRYING/COOLING TREND FOR TUESDAY/
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): WATCHING PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WITH A MORE
ROBUST BUCKLING THE UPPER FLOW INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS.  SHARP
SHORT WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE...WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 719 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

SUMMARY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND THEN PUSH EAST OF THE REGION FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH GENERALLY GOOD FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

RESTRICTIONS: THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME 3KFT CIGS TRAPPED BENEATH
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT PLN.  THESE ARE GOING TO BE STUBBORN
TO REMOVE...BUT EXPECT THAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUED
DRYING FROM THE NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING
CLEARING. THUS...OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT PLN THROUGH 03Z.
BEYOND THIS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF POTENTIAL MORNING FOG ISSUES. PLN SEEMS LIKE THE BEST CANDIDATE
TONIGHT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY DID NOT MIX OUT AT ALL TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED. WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR HERE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SUBSTANTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
2SM BR MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK AT PLN. LIFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO INCLUDE
/ESP GIVEN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER/.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR ALL SITES BY LATER THIS
EVENING WITH SOME INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

WINDS: NORTHWEST /NE AT TVC/ WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO CALM OR
LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOWS AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTERLY 10G15KTS BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREA HYDROGRAPHS CONTINUE ON THEIR DOWNWARD TREND THIS AFTERNOON AS
RESIDUAL RUNOFF WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE BASINS.  THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...BUT QUESTIONS
ARISE WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SUNDAY (CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS
ONLY CONTAIN 24H QPF...WHICH WOULD BE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY).
MANISTEE RIVER NEAR SHERMAN IS A PARTICULAR CONCERN GIVEN ITS RATHER
DRAWN OUT RECESSION.  CONTINGENCY QPF FORECASTS WOULD SUGGEST A
RENEWED RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN A MODEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL (AT
LEAST STAYING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE).  SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.
POTENTIAL RISES ON THE PINE RIVER (EASTERN UPPER) AND RIFLE RIVERS
NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RENEWED FLOOD CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...ARNOTT
HYDROLOGY...JPB






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