Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 141749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
149 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Issued at 1049 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Plenty of smoke from Western wildfires can be seen on visible
satellite over northern Michigan this morning. Expect hazy skies
to continue for much of the day as more smoke can be found just
upstream over the western UP and northern Wisconsin. Some thin
cirrus also spilling into the eastern UP, and stubborn low
stratus/fog from the Leelanau Peninsula to Grand Traverse County
and south. Over the next 1 to 2 hours expect the stratus and fog
to gradually erode (already seeing signs of this on satellite) as
daytime heating intensifies. Otherwise quiet, unseasonably warm
weather continues with light winds and highs ranging from mid 70s
to just over 80 in some spots.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...Quiet and warm wx continues...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure remains centered across
much of Michigan and Wisconsin early this morning...resulting in a
continuation of mainly clear skies and very pleasant temps. Eastern
edge of a warm front has lifted into Lake Superior...attached to low
pressure developing over the Northern Plains. This warm front will
stay north of our CWA thru tonight...along with all associated
moisture. Thus...expect mainly clear skies and above normal temps
will continue today and tonight as warm southerly winds persist.

High temps this afternoon will again warm into the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Low temps tonight will cool back into the 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

...Summer-like weather continues...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Remnants of Hurricane Irma continue to press well off to our east
through the end of the work week while troughing digs across the
western third of the CONUS. As a result, northern Michigan lies
between the two systems with increasing ridging/unseasonably high
heights aloft. When combined with surface high pressure atop the
region, rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures are
anticipated Friday through Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Little in the way of challenge
or concern through the short term forecast period as heights
continue to rise aloft combine with surface high pressure to provide
mostly sunny skies and temperatures varying from 5-15 degrees above
normal for the second week of September. The warmest of the two days
certainly looks to be Saturday as southerly return flow gradually
ramps up ahead of an area of low pressure taking shape across the
central plains. High temperatures Friday in the upper 70s north to
the low 80s south...warming to near 80 across eastern Upper and the
mid 80s elsewhere for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

High impact weather potential: Slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday-
Sunday night.

Somewhat more active weather returns, at least briefly, to wrap up
the weekend. Aforementioned area of low pressure across the central
plains continues to quickly progress northeastward into Ontario
through the day Sunday, ultimately swinging a cold front from
northwest to southeast across northern Michigan late Sunday into
Sunday evening. Showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder are
expected to accompany the front, most numerous during the midday and
afternoon hours.

Cooler weather returns to start next week; however, guidance
consistency diverges toward the middle of the week yielding a low
confidence forecast beyond Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

High pressure will continue to extend into northern Michigan
through Friday providing quiet weather. As leftover morning low
stratus continues to erode (now only lingering at MBL), starting
to see a little diurnal cu popping as well as some thin passing
cirrus. Also plenty of smoke aloft, likely lingering into
tonight. Lake breezes providing light and variable winds, perhaps
becoming calm at some terminals tonight. MVFR and perhaps localized
IFR fog possible overnight, particularly at APN and PLN.


Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria today thru Friday
night as high pressure holds overhead. Dry wx and mainly clear skies
are expected across our entire region thru late week.




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