Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 112323

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
723 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...Remaining showers ending late afternoon/early evening...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface low continue to make its way
thru Ohio this afternoon...while strong high pressure is center
along the Ontario/Quebec border. Northern edge of the large swath of
rain that developed north of the surface low center is slowly
exiting out of our SE CWA as the low pushes toward the Atlantic
coast. Clouds are steadily diminishing across our NW CWA as even the
upper level moisture/cloud cover begins to depart on the backside of
this system. Temps have struggled to warm out of the 50s so far
today due to thick clouds and precip.

Both the NAM and the RAP pull the last vestiges of shower activity
out of our far SE CWA just before 00Z this evening...with clouds
quickly diminishing behind the back line of precip as drier air thru
the column filters into the region. Gradient remains sufficiently
tight for dry easterly low level flow to help preclude fog
development tonight. Thus...expect mainly clear skies for our entire
CWA for late evening and overnight. Low temps will cool mainly into
the low to mid 40s.

Thursday will begin with mainly clear skies for much of our CWA
before some low cloudiness begins to push back northward into our
CWA as low level flow shift to the SE ahead of our next approaching
system. Cannot rule out a slight chance of a shower across our SE
CWA as well in the afternoon. High temps will warm into the low to
mid 60s across our entire CWA.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...Periods of unsettled weather through this weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential: Periods of soaking rain Friday night
and again Saturday night-Sunday. Rain may fall heavily at times
Saturday evening into early Sunday along with increasingly gusty
winds. Can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder Sunday and
depending on the timing, strength and placement of the
system...perhaps the potential for a few severe storms.

Pattern Forecast: Quite the active pattern setting up across the
central U.S. late this week through the upcoming weekend. Despite
light/scattered shower activity possible Thursday night into early
Friday, focus revolves around the Friday evening through Sunday
timeframe. Low pressure rapidly trekking across northern
Manitoba/Ontario Thursday night into Friday is expected to drag an
elongated cold front across northern Michigan Friday night. This
boundary will become stationary across Lower Michigan during the day
Saturday providing the focus for a stronger mid level wave and
associated deepening surface low to track along as it emerges from
the Intermountain West/Plains. Still plenty of uncertainty exists
this weekend with respect to low pressure strength, timing and
track. However, the potential is becoming likely for periods of rain
across much of northern Michigan...potentially heavy at times.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Gauging precip potential
throughout the forecast period with precedence put on the Friday
night through Sunday timeframe.

Increasing clouds from south to north Thursday afternoon will
continue right into Thursday night with perhaps a few showers
developing as a result of lingering low-mid level moisture and a
weak northeastward moving boundary. This activity is expected to
curtail by Friday morning; however, additional rain chances arrive
from the northwest Friday evening.

Aforementioned elongated cold front is expected to gradually cross
northern Michigan Friday night with showers becoming likely over
eastern Upper and northwest Lower Friday evening...gradually
transitioning along and east of I-75 overnight. Wouldn`t be shocked
to see showers continue for some early Saturday; however, a lack of
guidance consistency with respect to the placement of the stalling
cold front yields decreased confidence to overall precip coverage
during the daylight hours Saturday.

The stalled boundary across central/southern Lower Michigan
gradually begins to lift northward as a warm front Saturday
afternoon as low pressure deepens across the Mississippi Valley and
progresses northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Rain is
expected to become likely once again Saturday evening continuing
into Sunday...potentially falling heavy at times as PWATs rise to
nearly 1.50 inches (+1 to +3 standard deviations for mid-October).
GEFS ensemble means suggest upwards of 1.00-2.00 inches of QPF
through the Saturday evening-Sunday time frame across northern
Lower...slightly less in eastern Upper. Again, low confidence
prevails in terms of the small scale details at this juncture, but
there`s at least a small threat for a few rumbles of thunder just
given the degree of moisture and dynamics with this system. Given
the progged 150+ kt jet structure aloft and the amount of effective
bulk shear (in excess of 60 kts) late Saturday night-Sunday morning,
a conditional severe weather threat can`t be ruled out either
(despite very limited instability)... although the better threat of
that may remain downstate and into the Ohio Valley.

Precip chances gradually diminish Sunday, although increasingly
gusty winds and cooler temperatures ushered in on the back side of
the departing low may prove to be enough to start lake processes
with scattered lake effect rain showers continuing across the
typical NW flow lake effect zones of northwest Lower and eastern
Upper. Trends continue to suggest the brief cold spell should be
just warm enough (but maybe not by much) to prevent any
snowflakes from mixing in across the higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Cold air behind Sunday`s departing system is rather fleeting as
heights aloft begin to rise during the day Monday. Any lingering
light/scattered lake effect rain activity is expected to come to an
end during the day Monday. Another system early next week is
expected to pass by just to our north; however, high pressure over
the midsection of the CONUS should provide mainly dry conditions
locally with gradually moderating temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Mostly clear skies through much of the overnight across the taf
sites. Extensive area of mvfr/ifr cigs just to our south will
rotate north very late tonight, with this area of clouds spreading
across the the area Thursday. Will tentatively play it
optimistically, thinking there may be just enough lower level
mixing to keep cigs in mvfr range. Will continue to monitor of
course. Light east winds will turn southeast on Thursday.


Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria across our Lake
Huron nearshore areas tonight and Thursday thanks to persistent
easterly onshore flow north of low pressure tracking north of the
Ohio Valley. Remaining rain near Saginaw Bay will diminish late this
afternoon and come to an end...with dry wx expected for the rest of
tonight and Thursday morning. Additional chances of showers will
develop Thursday afternoon and night for much of our nearshore


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ345>349.


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