Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 230637
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
237 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

IMPACT WEATHER: NONE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...PRETTY QUIET OUT THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY/NEAR CALM WINDS. EARLIER
DRY AIR HAD SCOURED OUT THE CLOUDS...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WERE
FALLING DECENTLY INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S. UPSTREAM...THE
PATTERN WAS MORE IMPRESSIVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS NEGATIVELY
TILTED ACROSS THE PAC NW...WITH WEAKER VORTICITY RIDING OVER THE
RIDGE EAST OF THERE...CONNECTING WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT THAT EXTENDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW LIGHT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS WERE NOTED
WORKING INTO FAR NRN MN...WHILE BETTER RAINS WERE ASSOCIATED ACROSS
THE PAC NW WHERE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WAS INCREASING LOW LEVEL LIFT
UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE OUT WEST WILL DEVELOP FURTHER AND SLIDE
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE UPPER SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND EJECTS TOWARD THE
DAKOTAS AS WELL...BRINGING THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY AND ESPECIALLY ON
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. A NEAR
STATIONARY FRONT/WARM FRONT DEVELOPS WEST-EAST THROUGH CENTRAL MN/WI
BY LATE TONIGHT.

A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WRAPS INTO ONTARIO TODAY AND WORKS WITH SOME
OF THE INITIAL EJECTED ENERGY FROM THE PAC NW UPPER LOW...WHICH
INCREASES THE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING FRONT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SPORADIC REFLECTIVITIES TO EXPAND TO SOME
DEGREE AND MAKE PROGRESS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
TODAY. WE WILL JUST SEE SOME INCREASED/THICKER CLOUDS ACROSS THE NRN
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE FGEN SIGNAL WEAKENS IN THE
LATEST DATA...LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA INCREASES...AND WE COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT RETURNS/POSSIBLE SPRINKLES WORK IN OVER AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF M-32 OVERNIGHT. MAYBE SOME MORE BONA FIDE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TOWARD DAYBREAK...AS THE LOWER 10KFT MAY BE ABLE TO MOISTEN DOWN TO
5-6KFT.

HIGHS TODAY WILL MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE 50S...WITH THE WARMER
READINGS INLAND AND COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE SHORELINES...AS WEAK
BL WINDS LEAD TO AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S...WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS ACROSS THE
GTV BAY...WHERE THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL AIR WILL RESIDE IN INCREASING
WAA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/EXPECTED EVOLUTION: UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW CLEARLY
EVIDENT TONIGHT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT FOLLOWS ALONG A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC
ZONE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.

DETAILS: DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN EARNEST SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES ITS TREK
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE-
RICH GULF OF MEXICO LADEN AIR TO SURGE INTO NRN MI WITH RAIN
CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE
REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHEN THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT REALLY RAMPS
UP (MID-MORNING VS. MIDDAY HOURS)...A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY. RAIN BECOMES HEAVIER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WE SIT SQUARELY IN THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF A 140+ KT 250 MB JET STREAK...THE LOW-MID THERMAL
GRADIENT TIGHTENS (PROMOTING FGEN RESPONSE)...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPING TO NEARLY 7 C/KM...AND PWATS SURGE TO 1-1.25 INCHES ACROSS
NRN LOWER. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP CONTINUES TO DEPEND ON THE
PRECISE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED VARIABLES
ABOVE...BUT AT THIS POINT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE M-32 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TIP OF THE MITT RECEIVE
GREATER THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 00-12Z MON.
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...HOWEVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED KINEMATICS BEGIN TO WANE...THUS LESS OF A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...MANY AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO RECEIVE MORE THAN AN INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HIGHEST VALUES MAY APPROACH TWO INCHES ACROSS THE M-32 CORRIDOR
WHILE FAR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS (NEAR WHITEFISH POINT AND
SAGINAW BAY) MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH IN INCH. PRECIP DIMINISHES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES SO...SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY...
THANKS TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. 40S
EXPECTED NORTH OF M-32...QUICKLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S AS
YOU HEAD TOWARD M-55 ON SUNDAY. EVEN COOLER MONDAY AS HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.


EXTENDED (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND MORE SUNSHINE.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SW TO NE LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF
PRECIP COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND WITH SUCH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...FULLY KNOWING IT MAY NOT BE WET
THROUGH THAT WHOLE TIMEFRAME.

TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH 40S TO LOW
50SFOR TUESDAY...RANGING THROUGH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY/NEAR CALM WINDS TURNING INTO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS GO LIGHT SE TONIGHT. SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO
START THE DAY WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PLN/APN AS LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY/NEAR CALM WINDS TURNING INTO LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY TO START THE DAY WITH INCREASING
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE WINDS GO LIGHT SE. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING
LATE TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SETS UP
ACROSS CENTRAL MN/WI. WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASE SUNDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE STARTS WORKING EASTWARD. NO ADVISORY WINDS
EXPECTED WITH INCREASING STABILITY OVER THE LAKES. RAINS WILL BECOME
RELATIVELY HEAVY AND STEADY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE WORKS INTO NRN IL.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DICKSON
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...DICKSON



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