Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 251846
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
246 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE REDEVELOPING SHOWERS/STORMS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

MORNING ANALYSIS...DAMPENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND IT`S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS DRUMMOND ISLAND AND THE NW LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN COASTLINE AT 9AM. SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AS THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL WAA AND SHORTWAVE FORCING HAVE WEAKENED. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STILL BE CROSSING NRN LOWER OVER THE NEXT 4 HRS...CLEARING THE
SAGINAW BAY AREA 17-18Z. POCKETS OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN WARMING
DURING THIS TIME...AND WE COULD STILL GET SOME INSTABILITY GENERATED
FOR A CHANCE AT REDEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS. GREATEST CHANCE
WILL BE IN THE SE CWA NEAR SAGINAW BAY. MODIFYING THE MORNING 12Z
APX SOUNDING REVEALS THE POTENTIAL FOR AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE WHILE
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVERHEAD FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

INTERESTINGLY...HI RES WIND DATA SUGGEST A POTENTIAL AFTERNOON LAKE
BREEZE ACROSS FAR NE LOWER SOUTH OF ALPENA FOR CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND FOCUS FOR SHOWERS. GONNA HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE IN
THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOSS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS LIKELY TO END ALL PRECIP THREATS.

SEVERE CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AND NOT EXPECTED.

SKIES ARE ALREADY SUNNY ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...AND WILL BECOME
SUNNY A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ALL REMAINS QUIET ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY SOME
LOW AND MID CLOUDS DRIFTING THRU AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 70 ATTM. JUST UPSTREAM...AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER...AS BOTH THE 850 MB
THETA E RIDGE AXIS AND AN INSTABILITY AXIS LEAN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN
AND NRN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAIN QUESTION FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND TODAY IS IF THIS CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO
REACH OUR CWA AND PROVIDE US WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.

UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU MICHIGAN TODAY. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
(850 MB THETA E AXIS) AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL LEAN INTO OUR CWA
TOWARD DAYBREAK...RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NW
TO SE THRU THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED (GENERALLY
AROUND 500 J/KG) WITH FROPA OCCURRING AT OUR DIURNAL INSTABILITY
MINIMUM. WIND FIELDS WILL ACTUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE RIGHT ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK STILL KEEPS MOST
OF OUR CWA IN GENERAL THUNDER THRU TODAY...WITH JUST A SMALL SLIVER
OF OUR WRN CWA IN MARGINAL. WILL CERTAINLY KEEP THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

AS FAR AS POPS...STILL EXPECT OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE THRU
15Z FOR WRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA FROM ERN UPR MICHIGAN THRU FAR NRN
AND NW LWR MICHIGAN WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE. CONVECTION MAY EXPERIENCE SOME BOOST FROM INCREASING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY TOWARD LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FROPA OCCURS
FOR ERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO A DRIER AND GENERALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESS. WILL LEAVE ONLY CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS AREA THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CERTAINLY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE
CONVECTION EVOLVES ONCE SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP
RIGHT AS FROPA OCCURS. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY
GIVEN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

(7/26)SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN MOVES TO S
LOWER BY 00Z, THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS TRIES
TO PRINT OUT SOME RAIN AROUND UPPER MICHIGAN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
REMAIN DRY, SO WILL ALSO GO DRY. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN DURING
THE NIGHT. AGAIN, THE GFS IS SHOWING MORE RAIN OVERNIGHT, AND THEN
EARLY ON MONDAY BEFORE ALL THE RAIN RETREATING WEST AGAIN INTO
WISCONSIN. SO THINK THAT THE GFS IS A LITTLE TOO WET, WITH THE ECMWF
IDEA OF DRY WEATHER GOOD. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY LOOK OKAY, BUT
A LITTLE WORRYING, AS THE ANALOGS ON THE CIPS PAGE, SHOW THAT THE
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 85F IS < 30% EVEN THOUGH THE MET/MAV
NUMBERS BRINGS MID 80S UP TO GLR.

(7/27)MONDAY...THE BETTER DAY FOR THE TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE 85F,
IS MONDAY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST A BIT TO LAKE ERIE,
AND THE RETURN FLOW GETS GOING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE NEAR 90F FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY, AT LEAST
EARLY, TO PRINT OUT SOME RAIN BEFORE FORCING THE RAIN TO THE WEST.
IT`S GOING TO DEPEND ON WHICH MODEL IS RIGHT WITH RESPECT TO HOW
AMPLIFIED THE 500 MB RIDGE IS. THE ECMWF AND THE NAM PREVENT ALL
RAIN FROM GETTING OVER THE RIDGE. WHILE THE GFS HAS A FLATTER
RIDGES, AT LEAST TO BEGIN WITH, AND CONTINUES THE RAIN BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z. THINK THAT THE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN WEST AS
THE ECMWF SHOWS SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE GFS CONTINUES THE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THAT THEY DON`T COME IN UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHICH IS THE GOING FORECAST. BOTH THE MODELS AGREE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS, THEN DRYING OUT
OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS, AND
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 10C BY 00Z. SO WE WILL SEE
THE TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 80. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING DOWN THE NW FLOW AT 500 MB ON FRIDAY WITH
THE WARM FRONT THAT PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS. SO WILL EXPECT THAT
THE ELEVATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...VFR...

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON..WITH
DEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION NOW. SKIES HAVE CLEARED
AT PLN...AND WILL AT THE REMAINING AIRPORTS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID
AND HIGH CLOUD POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW/NW TILL WEAKENING TO NEAR CALM
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE WESTERLY BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT...AND
WERE A BIT GUSTY ACROSS WHITEFISH BAY...THE ST. MARYS AND THE NRN
LAKE HURON NEARSHORES. ALL UNDER ADVISORY HOWEVER. WINDS WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...GRADUALLY TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THROUGH MO...WITH A TENDENCY TO TURN
ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS INLAND
EASTERN UPPER MAY DRIFT OUT OVER THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF LAKES
HURON AND MICHIGAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
WITH LAKE BREEZES EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


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