Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 270540
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
140 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LIFTING UP TOWARD EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...DEEPER CHANNEL OF THETA-
E...STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT/INSTABILITY...AS WELL AS ALL PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISMS (LLJ/WAA...UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND DPVA) HAVE ALL
LIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF HERE. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MILD AND MOIST
IN THE BL...WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ANY
NEW ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. LOOKING UPSTREAM
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE TROUGHING STILL RESIDES IN WISCONSIN WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING BACK THROUGH NW IL. THERE ARE HINTS OF WEAKER LLJ
FORCING AND A SECONDARY AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E/SLIGHTLY STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. VORT MAX WAS WRAPPING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LIFTING TOWARD LOWER MICHIGAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY
CROSSED NRN IL AND INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. TOTAL FORCING WAS RATHER
WEAK AND DIMINISHING WITH THE LACK OF JET SUPPORT AND ANY SERIOUS
DPVA. DEEPER MOISTURE WAS SEEN ON THE NW FLANK OF THE SFC LOW WITH
DEFORMATION FORCING MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS ACROSS NW WI AND UPPER
MICHIGAN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT
LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
DEFORMATION SHEARS NE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NW CWA. THE SECONDARY LOW
LEVEL JET IS REALLY OUT OF HERE BY DAYBREAK...WHILE THE SLIGHTLY
STEEPER LAPSE RATES SLIDE ACROSS THE FAR SE CWA. NOTHING TO GET TOO
EXCITED ABOUT HERE...BUT DEEPENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO MUCH OF THE REGION....WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NE LOWER PRIOR TO THE FRONT (AIDED
BY PERHAPS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY? THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES IN THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND DEFORMATION/TOTAL DEEP LAYER FORCING MAX. A VERY WEAK
VORT MAX AND SFC COLD FRONT UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS LAYS OUT ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY THINK THERE MAY BE A SMALL CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATER
TONIGHT. THESE MAY ORIGINATE FROM LATE AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER AND NE WI. CONTINUED MID LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DIMINISHING DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS MORE
THAN LIKELY TO ALLOW ANY SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BEFORE ARRIVING IN THE
NW CWA.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL VARY FROM WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS FAR NE
LOWER...TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN CHIP/MACK IN LOCKED IN DEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH
PERIODIC CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: LOW.

UPPER PATTERN FLATTENS OUT ACROSS THE CONUS THIS WEEK RESULTING IN A
FAIRLY "NORMAL" LATE SPRING WEATHER REGIME.  ONE MORE SHORTWAVE TROF
TO DEAL WITH ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND COOL FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVER SOUTHEAST
AREAS. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO
THURSDAY...BEFORE DEVELOPING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES APPROACH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP COVERAGE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MODELS SHOWING AN AREA OF DEFORMATION RAIN WRAPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
...ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS JUST WEST OF OUR AREA.  MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL COVER MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER THROUGH
MIDDAY...BEFORE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES MOVE
BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS.  WE MAY ALSO SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOP OVER
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER THE COLD POOL BUT MUCH OF THAT
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING MICHIGAN.

AFTER A FEW EVENING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS SOUTH OF
OUR AREA.  TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
/70S TO LOWER 80S/ WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS
MIX OUT.  SOME OF THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OFF OF LAKE HURON ALONG INLAND PENETRATING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN THE H9-H8 LAYER SHOULD
INHIBIT MOST /ALL/ OF THIS ACTIVITY.

STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY...HELPING TO
BRING A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS TEND TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AND END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURE WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND WARMING INTO THE 70S BY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...PATCHY FOG EARLY WITH A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS...

RAINFALL LAST EVENING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG AND
SPORADIC STRATUS ISSUES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THEN...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN/ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...A COLD FRONT
AND DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO PRIMARILY THE NW
LOWER AIRPORTS. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN/DRIZZLE ISSUES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT FOG CAN BRIEFLY ROLL INTO MANISTEE FROM AREAS OF FOG OUT
OVER THE LAKES. ACROSS ALPENA...THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT ROLL IN
UNTIL THIS EVENING. SORT OF A NEBULOUS SKY FORECAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT BELIEVE THE TREND IS FOR A DIMINISHING TREND BUT CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG ROAMING AROUND.

LLWS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH SOME GUSTY SW WINDS MAINLY AT APN TODAY.
WINDS TENDING TO TURN MORE WEST...AND LIGHTER ACROSS NW LOWER. LIGHT
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

ISOLATED ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEARSHORES
FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES ACROSS
THE REGION. SW GUSTY FLOW WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE NW LOWER
NEARSHORES...THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO PRIMARILY WHITEFISH BAY AND
NRN LAKE HURON NEARSHORES LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. RIGHT
NOW...DUE TO THE STABILITY OVER THE LAKES...DOUBT THIS IS A
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY SITUATION AND WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
HEADLINE. WARM AND MOIST AIR OVER THE LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG.

HIGHER PRESSURE THEN TAKES OVER LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. A
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTY SW WINDS DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE BEST CHANCE BY FAR FOR WIND/WAVE ISSUES WILL
BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEHIND A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IN
A MORE ABRUPT WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NW.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...KEYSOR
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



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