368
FXUS63 KBIS 141139
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
639 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  through the week.

- Near average temperatures are expected this week, with highs
  in the mid 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers continue to move east across the area this morning.
Thunderstorm activity has ceased for the most part, as
instability continued to decrease through the overnight hours.
Scattered showers are still on track to continue through the
rest of the day, however confidence has decreased slightly in
the overall extent of this. As such, PoPs have been slightly
reduced, but not by much. Overall chances for thunderstorms
remains largely the same. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving across
the state early this morning, as a mid-level shortwave trough and
associated surface cold front moves through from west to east. While
the thunderstorms were a bit more prevalent a few hours ago, the
instability has really taken a nosedive overnight, so the risk for
strong to severe storm development has decreased quite a bit. Some
small hail may be possible in any brief pulse-ups, but apart from
that, these storms should mostly just bring some rain showers and
gusty winds, along with lightning. Lows this morning will be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Upper level smoke from the Canadian
wildfires is still present, and may make skies somewhat hazy at
times.

Another shortwave is expected to pass across the Dakotas through the
day today, which should bring continued chances for precipitation
across much of the area. A majority of the southwest and central
portions of North Dakota will see 40 to 60% chances for rain, with
these chances decreasing heading to the northwest. There will also
be a 20 to 35% chance for thunderstorms across much of the area
today as well, as current short-term deterministic guidance suggests
a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE extending northward from
South Dakota towards the Canadian border. However, 0-3 km shear
values only max out around 10 to 15 kts, helping limit any severe
storm threat. There could be very pulse-y strong storms with gusty
winds and small hail, but these will be short lived should anything
develop. The SPC continues to advertise just a General Thunderstorm
risk area for much of the area. Otherwise, high temperatures today
are forecast to largely be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with
southeasterly winds around 10 to 15 mph, veering through the day and
becoming mostly northwesterly by the late evening hours.

As the aforementioned shortwave exits the area tonight and into
Wednesday morning, the active pattern is expected to continue, with
additional mid-level shortwaves passing across the area from the
west. Prominent mid-level ridging off the Pacific coastline will
keep us in this pattern through the rest of the week, with near
daily chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms expected.
Deterministic guidance suggests similar conditions for each day when
it comes to instability and shear, with the idea being that there
will be daily chances for thunderstorms, but with minimal chances
for any of these thunderstorms to become strong to severe. Daytime
high temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the area through the week and into the weekend, with
overnight lows largely in the 40s. Tentative signs of the active
pattern breaking down are beginning to show in the forecast for the
start of next week, but model disagreement is quite high in terms of
the upper-level flow setup, so we will continue to monitor when
exactly this active pattern will end.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers continue to move through the area this morning, occasionally
bringing about low ceilings and gusty and erratic winds. While every
terminal is currently under VFR conditions, some of these showers
may reduce visibilities and/or ceilings to MVFR conditions for brief
periods of time. Winds across the western portions of the state have
already begun veering to be more southwesterly, while winds in
central North Dakota and the southern James River Valley will begin
to veer through the remainder of the TAF period. These winds should
increase through the daytime hours and become a bit gusty, with
gusts up to 25 kts possible, before decreasing heading into the late
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the rest of
the TAF period, with occasional periods of MVFR conditions
associated with them across all terminals.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Besson
DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson