Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281651
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE AREA
IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME... AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY... BUT COOL DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CDFNT HAS MOVED SE OF THE CWA THIS MORNING... FOLLOWED BY A WK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVG EAST ALONG THE MI/IN BORDER. SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING FOG BEING REPORTED BY ASOS/AWOS ACROSS THE AREA BUT IT HAS
BEEN TRANSIENT THUS FAR AND GENERALLY NOT IMPACTING VSBYS
SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH LINGERING MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW... DIDN`T
MENTION IN THE MORNING PORTION OF THE FCST. UPR LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING UP TO AROUND 850MB EXPECTED THIS AFTN WHICH BASED ON
RECENT TAMDAR EAST OF CHICAGO SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE L80S.

LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRDLY VEER FROM EAST TO SOUTH
TONIGHT AS AN UPR LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT MOVE EAST INTO
THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPR MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS/GRADIENT MIXING ACROSS OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LOWS IN THE L60S EXPECTED. CONTD DRY FCST AS FORCING/MOISTURE APPEAR
TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT SHOWERS IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. NCEP AND
OTHER MODELS OVERALL HAVE REALLY BEEN STRUGGLING THE PAST FEW DAYS
HANDLING THE INTERACTION AND MERGING OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE AND A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CIPS ANALOGS SUPPORT OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. NWS HAZARDS OUTLOOK ISSUED
YESTERDAY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LATE THIS WEEK APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. FAVOR THE GFS THIS
PACKAGE WHICH HAS HAD BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF
AND APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK HANDLING THIS SYSTEM MUCH BETTER NOW.
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 80S BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT ESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE STABLE SW
FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FLOW VEERS MORE
SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. COULD SEE SOME STRATUS/BR FILL IN WITH THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OPTED TO HOLD WITH
OPTIMISTIC VFR FCST GIVEN WEAK SIGNALS IN MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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