Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 030844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING)...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FL BIG BEND
FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE MODELS KEEP ATTEMPTING TO HAVE THIS
LOW DRIFT THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE RAIN
FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN PATH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE THE LOW IS PROVIDING DECENT CONVERGENCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE FROM WPC
IS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
CONVERGENT BAND FORMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW PUSHING EAST
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
LIMITED THE COVERAGE FOR MOST OF NE FL/SE GA TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK. IF
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE LOW 90S OVER SE GA
WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES THEN ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-WED)...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST AND WILL LEAVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW STEERING PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE GA WHERE ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER
90S ACROSS SE GA WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES...WHILE THE
EARLIER START TO CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S NEAR CLIMO VALUES.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EASTERN U.S. TROFINESS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S EXPECTED WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO 105
DEGREES. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY
WINDS/LIGHTNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. VCSH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VCTS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S-SW AROUND 15 KTS.
GNV WILL SEE SHRA IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND VCTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 4
PM. TIGHT WIND GRADIENT NEAR A SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED ABOVE 20 KTS. AFTERWARDS WIND AND SEAS LOOK TO LOWER TO
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO EXIT ON TUESDAY AND SEAS
AND WINDS TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  97  74 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  86  76  91  78 /  40  20  30  30
JAX  88  76  94  75 /  40  30  50  30
SGJ  86  75  90  76 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  86  74  91  74 /  60  40  40  30
OCF  84  74  90  73 /  70  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WALSH/HESS


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