Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 261835
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
235 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday...Strong high pressure to the
north with inverted trough over the waters has produced a moderate
ne flow today with isolated light showers along the east coast.
NAM12 model depicts the inverted trough best and shifts the
feature inland and weakens it tonight. This will keep a slight
chance for coastal showers while keeping winds up along the coast
overnight. Inland zones will remain dry with winds dropping off.
This will allow areas of fog (possibly dense inland) and low
clouds to form late tonight and early Thursday morning. After
morning fog burns off...Thursday will be mostly sunny and warm
with easterly winds becoming gusty in the afternoon. Lows tonight
will be in the low to mid 60s with highs Thursday in the low/mid
Thu Night-Saturday...High pressure weakens and settles southward
just a bit closer to the region across south GA and this will lessen
the NE steering flow across the region basically ending the coastal
shower threat, except for some silent 10% chances along the NE FL
coast at times. Otherwise expecting mostly clear skies through the
period with temps remaining above normal with highs in the middle
80s inland and closer to 80 near the coast. Lows generally in the
mid/upper 50s inland and 60s near the coast.
.LONG TERM /Sun-Wed/...
Very little change expected through the period with stagnant pattern
in place although renewed High Pressure building over the Carolinas
by next Tue/Wed may increase the pressure gradient and NE flow
across the region again and have re-introduced showers possible
along the coast by next Tue Night/Wed time frame. Max Temps will
remain above normal through the period with generally mid 80s over
inland areas Sun/Mon cooling to the lower 80s Tue/Wed. Lows
remaining in the mid/upper 50s inland and 60s near the coast.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions through the evening with cigs around
4kft. Winds will be from the e to ne at 10-15 knots with gusts to
20 knots this afternoon...lowering to 10 knots or less after
sunset. Low cigs with fog expected to develop after midnight with
IFR conditions inland at GNV and VQQ mainly 08z-13z.
.MARINE...High pressure to the north will move east tonight as
inverted trough over the waters shifts west and weakens. Winds
will be more easterly on Thursday and remain onshore through the
weekend as high pressure is reinforced to the north. Small crafts
should exercise caution.
Rip Currents: Moderate risk.
Approach of New Moon this weekend will once again push the St. Johns
River Basin back into the Action/Elevated Stages and is already
being seen today with stages above 1.50ft NAVD88 from downtown
jacksonville southward through Putnam County. These will likely
expand basin wide through the weekend, but still believe current NE
wind flow will remain weak enough to keep stages below Minor Flood
levels although it may flirt with Minor Flood stage of 2.00ft NAVD88
along Dunns Creek near Satsuma in Putnam County.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 83 56 86 / 10 0 0 0
SSI 66 77 65 79 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 65 80 61 83 / 20 10 10 0
SGJ 66 79 66 81 / 10 10 10 0
GNV 61 82 60 85 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 61 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0