Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 031055 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
554 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA INCLUDING FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THIS
MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...

...AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

...WARMING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT)...

THIS MORNING...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FORM DUE TO
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
WILL BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR IT TO FORM DURING THE DAWN AND
MORNING HOURS AS THE SHORT MOVES MOVES TO THE SE AND SOME SUBSIDENCE
MOVES IN. WILL CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR NOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SIGNS OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
THERE HAS BEEN SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST BUT ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS EXPECTED SO WILL CONTINUE WITH POPS OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
ANY DENSE FOG THAT MANAGES TO GET GOING WILL BURN OFF DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS.

TODAY/TONIGHT...STRONG SURFACE HIGH WELL TO THE NORTH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OFFSHORE WHICH SETS A RETURN FLOW OVER THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER TO SE TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT. WEAK IMPULSES RIDING THE
PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL COMBINE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN
AND HEATING WHICH MAY HELP PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WARMEST READINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL WHERE MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S.
HIGHS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 AND COASTAL AREAS WILL BE AROUND 70.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG TO FORM AS THERE WILL BE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND A WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEA FOG AS THE MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF BOTH THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED AND SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST. FOR NOW HAVE AREAS OF LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG. MIN TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND BE
NEAR 60 ACROSS MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT TO THE
EAST...WITH A COLD FRONT MAKING AN INITIAL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AREAS OF FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AS BREEZY SW WINDS DEVELOP BY AFTN...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS IN A COUPLE OF MONTHS...WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND...WITH MAINLY 70S COAST. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY ARE...JAX 86 IN 1997...GNV 89 IN 1997...AND AMG
86 IN 1961.

THE FRONT WILL APPROACH SE GA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP MOST AREAS DRY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR SE
GA LATE. EXPECT MILD LOWS IN THE 60-65 RANGE.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA THURSDAY
MORNING CROSSING NE FL THURSDAY AFTN...SAGGING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING GETTING STRETCHED
OUT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LIMITED...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FOR THE
FRONTAL APPROACH/CROSSING. GFS TRIES TO POOL SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY THURSDAY AFTN ALONG THE FRONT...BUT GIVEN ABOVE
LIMITATIONS...WILL KEEP TSTMS OUT OF THE FCST. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER WARM DAY
THURSDAY AS THE COLD ADVECTION REMAINS TO THE NORTH WITH THE LATE
DAY FRONTAL CROSSING...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR SE
GA...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF NE FL. COOLER AIR BEGINS
TO WORK IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS OF 40-45 FOR SE GA...WITH
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST OF NE FL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

BOTH GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL TROUGH WITH
MODERATE/STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE FLOW WEAKENING SUNDAY AND BECOMING MORE N/NW. BY
MONDAY...THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE W/NW. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
ONSHORE FLOW...WILL KEEP MID/HIGH END CHANCE POPS FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY...WITH A DECREASING POP TREND LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LESSER...BUT STILL MAINLY CHANCE POPS WILL PREVAIL FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE CHILLIEST DAY GIVEN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S FROM I-10
NORTHWARD...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FURTHER SOUTH. A SLOW
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF FOG SLOW TO FORM NEAR THE COAST DUE TO SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. AS SHORT WAVE EXITS TO THE SE THIS
MORNING THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR IT TO FORM THERE AS WELL. HAVE
VLIFR AT GNV TIL 15Z...THEN VFR AT AROUND 16Z. FOR THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS HAVE OCNL IFR TIL 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE
RESULTING IN WINDS VEERING TO SE TODAY AND SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM
AND MOIST FLOW WILL HELP SET UP AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS SOME OF WHICH BE DENSE NEAR SHORE. WINDS INCREASE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LIKELY MET LATE THU THRU
FRI.

RIP CURRENTS: PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL NECESSITATE A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN ELEVATED
RISK ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  61  83  61 /  20  10   0  20
SSI  67  58  71  59 /  20  10   0  10
JAX  78  59  83  62 /  10  10   0  10
SGJ  72  59  77  61 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  81  60  84  60 /  10  10   0  10
OCF  82  61  85  59 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-
     PIERCE-WARE.

AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

PP/ZA


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