Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 030843 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...

.CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE APPALACHIANS SW INTO N
CENTRAL GA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER. WEAK SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
LOCALLY WITH A FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER GA AND PORTIONS OF ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL
PROVIDING WEAK LIFT. RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN ACTIVITY OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS MOVING FURTHER E WHILE WEAK STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF S AND CENTRAL GA. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
INITIAL SHORTWAVE OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA MOVES OUT WHILE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. THUS EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASING TREND IN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS DURING THE MORNING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE AMPLE
INSOLATION DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S...WITH WARM TEMPS MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST DUE TO
PREVAILING WSW FLOW THATS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH MEAN LAYER
SHEAR AND DEVELOPING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINLY ISOLD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS DURING THE MORNING OVER THE WRN
ZONES...THEN INCREASING TO SCT-NMRS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. HIGHER
POPS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER SE GA AT 50-70 PERCENT WHERE BETTER LOW
LEVEL FORCING EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 25-30 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT IN SE GA. SPC
CONTINUES TO INDICATE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MOST
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-60 MPH...AND
HAIL NEAR 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. TIMING OF
STRONGER STORMS MAINLY AFTER 2-3PM. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...OCNLY
BREEZY WSW FLOW EXPECTED NEAR 15G25MPH.

TONIGHT...LINGERING SCT TO POSSIBLY NRMS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
IN THE EVENING WITH BETTER CHANCES ACROSS SE GA. AS FRONT PUSHES
SEWD INTO OUR AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH TSTMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TO NEARLY JUST
ISOLD COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE FROM EVENING THROUGH ~ 10 PM. AS FRONT ADVANCES
SEWD...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NWRN
ZONES WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO MORE SEASONABLE LOWER 60S THERE...WHILE
REST OF CWA LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM NEAR THE JAX
METRO AREA SW INTO NEAR CEDAR KEY WITH ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION ALONG
FRONT...WITH MORE PRODUCTIVE CONVECTIVE AREAS ACROSS MARION...
PUTNAM...ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES WITH LIKELY POPS THERE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLIDE SEWD AS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWN THE STATE AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH FURTHER
SEWD. MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS PER SPC OUTLOOK STILL FOR SERN
ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM ~8AM TO 1 PM. MUCH DRIER
CONDS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS
MORE TYPICAL IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF AREA...AND DEWPOINTS DROP
TO THE 50S BY LATE AFTN. BREEZY WSW FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS SRN TIER
AHEAD OF FRONT.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST FL ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRIVING A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AROUND SUNSET. A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS
W/NW SURFACE WINDS BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF COOL AIR ADVECTION INTO
OUR REGION. MEANWHILE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
TOWARDS SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST.

THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ON
THURS...SENDING THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT QUICKLY THROUGH OUR
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS APPROACHING 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALMOST AREA-WIDE. WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FROM THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD
ON THURS AFTERNOON MAY KEEP SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS IN PLACE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA...BUT THE OVERALL AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN
TOO DRY FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA/OCMULGEE RIVERS TO NEAR 80 OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL.
THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW EARLY MAY CLIMO.

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS ON THURS
NIGHT...WITH INLAND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING TO THE 5-10 MPH RANGE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FROM A CENTER
POSITION NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. CLOUDINESS WILL DEPART SOUTHEAST
GA...AND LOWS MAY APPROACH DAILY RECORDS AS INLAND READINGS FALL TO
THE MID/UPPER 40S...WITH MID 50S FORECAST AT THE BEACHES. THESE
VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  &&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD ON
FRI...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT DURING THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRI WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE E-
SE...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA ON SUN MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING OFFSHORE ON MON. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL FROM FRI
THROUGH SUN EVENING BEFORE HIGH CIRRUS INVADES FROM THE WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED LOCALLY
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 70S AND RADIATIONAL COOLING SENDING LOWS BACK INTO
THE LOWER 50S INLAND...RANGING TO NEAR 60 AT THE BEACHES. A
MODERATING TREND TAKES SHAPE FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH INLAND HIGHS
REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 80S AND UPPER 70S AT THE COAST SAT. LOWS
SAT NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S AT
THE COAST. HIGHS SUN AND MON WILL BOUNCE BACK ABOVE EARLY MAY
CLIMO...WITH UPPER 80S INLAND AND LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. W/SW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW SUN NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 60S REGION-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...SW-S MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PERIODS
OF MVFR STRATUS CIGS THROUGH MID MORNING...MAINLY AROUND THE 09Z-14Z
TIME FRAME. A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...THOUGH
ISOLD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SE GA AND AFFECT SSI
AND POTENTIALLY GNV BY 15Z-6Z. WILL WAIT ON FURTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE
INTRODUCING EARLIER ONSET OF CONVECTION. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED IN THE AFTN AND EVENING AND FOR NOW VCTS IS
PLACED FCSTS. WITH ANY STRONGER TSTMS...MVFR CONDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS ALSO LIKELY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE S
THEN BECOME PREVAILING SWLY AT 10-15 KT DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...S-SW FLOW AROUND 15KT TODAY WILL VEER TO SW AND THEN W
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AND S OF AREA WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTIER NWLY
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE NW GUSTS AROUND 30-35 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
WINDS SLOWLY RELAX FRI AND SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W.
MAIN SHORT TERM HAZARD ARE BREEZY SWLY WINDS AND AFTN AND OVERNIGHT
TSTMS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RISK TODAY THROUGH WED. PREVAILING S-
SW FLOW EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL CREATE MARGINALLY HIGH DISPERSION VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
WEST/SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON WED WILL
CREATE HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA AND MOST
OF NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON WED AFTERNOON.
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURS AREA-WIDE...AS BREEZY
TO WINDY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. HIGH
DISPERSION VALUES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. RAINFALL
TODAY AND WED MAY RAISE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ENOUGH TO PREVENT
RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  64  79  53 /  70  60  10  10
SSI  85  68  81  60 /  60  50  30  10
JAX  89  68  83  55 /  50  50  40  10
SGJ  87  69  82  63 /  40  50  60  10
GNV  87  68  82  58 /  40  50  60  10
OCF  87  69  82  57 /  40  60  70  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON


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