Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 270534
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1134 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.AVIATION...

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON SAT FOR MOST
SITES...WITH A LULL POSSIBLE AROUND MIDDAY. THIS LULL WILL BE BEHIND
A FRONT THAT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE...AND BE LIMITED TO
THE CENTRAL AND NWRN SITES. FURTHER SOUTH...NOT REALLY EXPECTING
MUCH OF A LULL IN THE PRECIP ACTIVITY BEYOND THE SCATTERED NATURE
EXPECTED. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR AND LIFR OVERNIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING UNDER THIS PRECIP. WIDESPREAD IMPROVEMENTS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

RAIN IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THIS FRI
EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON SAT. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR AND LIFR
OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING UNDER THIS PRECIP. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SAT...WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL ALSO
DECREASE SOME BEHIND THE FRONT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

LOW CLOUDS CONT TO INCRS ACRS THE FA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A
PERSISTENT S/SELY WIND FLOW. SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN WAS NOTED ACRS
PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN AR DURG THE AFTN HRS. MID AFTN TEMPS WERE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S.

A CDFNT WAS LOCATED OVR THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTN. THE BNDRY WL
CONT TO WORK SLOLY EWD THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY
THRU AR BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF THE BNDRY ACRS THE STATE
STILL RMNS PROBLEMATIC AS IT WL ENCOUNTER SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

THE END RESULT WL BE THAT RAIN CHCS WL BCM MORE LIKELY TNGT AND SAT
AS THE FNT MOVES CLOSER AND A SERIES OF UPR IMPULSES MOVE ACRS THE
MID SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE PAST FEW DAYS...QPF AMTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE WITH THIS EVENT. STILL LOOKING AT A
GENERAL ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF RAINFALL.

RAIN CHCS WL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FM THE W LATER SAT NGT AND SUN AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY SHIFTS E OF AR AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRES WL BRING DRIER AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS TO THE FA FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...BRINGING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SEND
MOISTURE NORTH...WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW TEMPERATURES CLIMB WITH THE SOUTH WINDS
MOVING INTO THE STATE...THERE COULD BE SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MANY DETAILS STILL TO BE WORKED OUT...HAVE
LEFT ONLY CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     54  49  56  36 /  10  70  80  60
CAMDEN AR         55  55  62  42 /  30  70  90  80
HARRISON AR       52  47  48  29 /  10  70  60  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  49  58  38 /  20  70  70  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  52  59  39 /  20  70  80  70
MONTICELLO AR     55  53  63  43 /  30  70 100 100
MOUNT IDA AR      52  51  55  35 /  20  70  70  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  48  51  31 /  10  70  70  30
NEWPORT AR        55  50  56  37 /  10  70  90  80
PINE BLUFF AR     55  53  61  41 /  20  70 100 100
RUSSELLVILLE AR   51  50  55  35 /  20  70  70  30
SEARCY AR         55  50  57  38 /  10  70  90  70
STUTTGART AR      55  51  58  40 /  20  70 100 100
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...65




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.