Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231111 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
611 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 12Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Some scattered SHRA and a few TSRA will remain possible this
morning for many sites...with the potential for precip shifting to
just the SRN terminals by this afternoon. Some MVFR flight rules
will be possible with this activity. By tonight into early
Thu...drier air will continue to move into the state...with VFR
conditions expected to dominate.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 319 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night

The cold front continues to progress south early this
morning...though the drier air is lagging back in MO. SHRA/TSRA have
continued to develop along/behind this front...with the most
widespread coverage over WRN sections of the state. The main threat
with this activity will remain as locally heavy rainfall...with some
isolated flash flood potential. Will keep highest POPs over WRN into
SWRN sections of the state...though some potential for SHRA/TSRA
will be possible over the next several hrs for most areas.

As the drier air to the north finally pushes south later this
morning...expect the potential for SHRA/TSRA to decrease from north
to south over time...with mainly SRN sections of the CWA seeing
precip by this afternoon. By tonight through the rest of the
period...expect the drier air to continue to move into the state as
high pressure approaches from the north. This will result in calmer
and cooler conditions to end the short term period.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Although this discussion features info regarding the long term
portion of the forecast, one can not disregard what is going on
right now and how it could significantly impact weather elements in
the extended period. Of course I am talking about the remnants of
Tropical Storm Harvey slowly moving to the northwest off the Yucatan
Peninsula, making its way toward Texas.

Anyway, the long term will be characterized by well below normal
temperatures thanks to mid level ridging across the west with a
large trough over the east. Also, at the surface, high pressure will
be in place from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley areas providing
an easterly flow here locally.

Occasional rain chances will be in the forecast, mainly across
southern and eastern portions of the state. Monday into Tuesday
another cold front will make its way through the state from north to
south, reinforcing the cooler air in place across the state.

Friday and into the weekend the aforementioned potential tropical
cyclone will track northwestward, likely coming ashore along the
Texas Gulf Coast somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston. After
landfall, a general eastward track will be seen, but the timeline of
eastward movement and exact path remain unclear. Model output precip
varies widely as well, but significant flooding concerns will be
seen along the Texas Gulf Coast and into Louisiana, regardless.
There is some potential for locally heavy rainfall across southern
portions of the state. With future model runs incorporating
additional upper air soundings and buoy data, will try to hone in on
precip estimates and forecast path in the coming days. Weather
reconnaissance flights today and tomorrow will help gather
additional information as well.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62


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