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000
FXUS64 KLZK 302343 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
543 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 10-12K FT AGL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. AN INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE STATE LATE
TOMORROW BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SUN...AND PERHAPS NOT UNTIL 06Z SUN. IN OTHER WORDS IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD ENDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...GRADUALLY VEERING TO AROUND 120-150KT AFTER 15Z AT AROUND
5-7KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES WAS IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE WX ACRS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTN. THE RESULTING E/NELY WIND FLOW KEPT AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S
TO MID 50S. SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WERE ALSO STREAMING SEWD
ACRS THE STATE...A PRELUDE TO THE NEXT STORM SYS AFFECTING THE AREA
LATER THIS WEEKEND.

THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRES RDG WL SLOLY ERODE AND SHIFT EWD THRU
SAT. MEANWHILE...MODELS CONT TO AGREE THAT A SPLIT UPR LVL FLOW WL
EVOLVE ACRS THE MID SOUTH OVR THE WEEKEND. INCRSG SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WL COMBINE WITH A DVLPG STORM SYS OVR THE SRN PLAINS TO
BRING WET WEATHER TO AR SAT NGT AND MUCH OF SUN.

MODELS HAVE CONTD TO INDC THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SFC RDG WL RMN
ARND A BIT LONGER ON SAT ACRS THE FA. THIS WL KEEP THE BULK OF THE
RAIN TO THE W OF AR FOR MUCH OF DAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR AT THE
SFC. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED SLGT CHC POPS OVR
FAR WRN AR SAT AFTN. POPS RAMP UP OVR AR SAT NGT AS THE SFC LOW
APCHS. THE MODELS ALSO CONT TO INDC A MORE NRN TRACK WITH THE SFC
WHICH WL KEEP MOST OF AR IN THE WARM SECTOR.

THE ASSOCD CDFNT WL SWEEP EWD THRU AR DURG THE DAY ON SUN...WITH
RAIN CHCS DIMINISHING FM THE W. INCLUDED A SLGT CHC OF THUNDER OVR
SERN AR SUN AFTN AHEAD OF CDFNT. RAIN CHCS WL LINGER OVR THE ERN
HALF OF AR EARLY SUN NGT. COLDER AIR MOVG IN BEHIND THE FNT COULD
PRODUCE A BRIEF PD OF LGT SNOW OVR N-CNTRL AR BEFORE ENDING...WITH
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

HIGH PRES WL BRING COLDER AND DRIER CONDS BACK TO THE NATURAL STATE
FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SFC FLOW BECOMING SRLY ACROSS AR.
THIS SRLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH TEMPS BACK IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS...AND
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF
THE STATE ON WED...WITH SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND
SERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
BE MUCH HIGHER SOUTH OF AR WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE WED NIGHT AND
THU...WITH COLDER TEMPS RETURNING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ENERGY AND
MOISTURE WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT TO
GENERATE SOME PRECIP THU INTO THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME AS MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY IS NOT THE BEST THIS FAR OUT. IF ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT WERE TO DEVELOP...SOME RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME WINTRY
PRECIP COULD BE SEEN. AGAIN...WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT...AND CERTAINTY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     48  28  47  40 /   0   0  10  80
CAMDEN AR         57  31  55  47 /   0   0  10  80
HARRISON AR       45  31  47  39 /   0   0  30 100
HOT SPRINGS AR    52  30  51  44 /   0   0  10  90
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  30  51  44 /   0   0  10  80
MONTICELLO AR     51  31  55  48 /   0   0  10  70
MOUNT IDA AR      52  30  50  44 /   0   0  20 100
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  29  47  39 /   0   0  20 100
NEWPORT AR        45  28  48  41 /   0   0  10  80
PINE BLUFF AR     49  30  53  45 /   0   0  10  80
RUSSELLVILLE AR   51  29  49  41 /   0   0  10 100
SEARCY AR         50  27  49  41 /   0   0  10  80
STUTTGART AR      48  30  52  44 /   0   0  10  80
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64