Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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186
FXUS64 KLZK 310900
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
400 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night
Scattered showers/a few thunderstorms were already on radar
early this morning, and tracking from northwest toward central
Arkansas. This will likely be a prelude of what is to come later
today, with good chances of rain in the northeast half of the
state. Precipitation should be a little more spotty farther
south/west as a ridge of high pressure stengthens from the Plains.

The ridge will become more dominant tonight/Monday. Rain chances
will decrease, with showers mainly confined to the eastern half
of Arkansas.

As the ridge takes over, there will be a warming trend. Afternoon
heat index values will peak from 100 to 105 degrees in
central/southern sections today, and across much of the region
on Monday. Temperatures both days will be at/a little above
average.
&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday
Models remain in good agreement that a pronounced upper ridge will
build into the region, settle over the region and dominate the
weather over the region through the extended period.

Humidity levels will remain elevated and temperatures are expected
to climb into the 90s and only drop into the 70s through the period.
Heat index values at this time are expected to be in the 100 to 105
degree range so just short of heat advisory criteria.

The only precipitation expected will be diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. Due to the lack of upper winds, some of the stronger
storms could produce locally heavy rain and gusty winds as they
collapse.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  75  95  75 /  40  30  20  10
Camden AR         95  76  96  75 /  30  20  20  10
Harrison AR       89  72  93  73 /  40  20  20  10
Hot Springs AR    94  76  95  75 /  30  10  20  10
Little Rock   AR  94  76  96  77 /  40  20  20  10
Monticello AR     94  76  94  76 /  40  20  30  20
Mount Ida AR      93  75  94  74 /  30  10  20  10
Mountain Home AR  90  73  94  73 /  40  20  20  10
Newport AR        91  74  94  75 /  40  30  30  20
Pine Bluff AR     93  75  94  75 /  40  20  30  10
Russellville AR   94  75  96  75 /  40  20  20  10
Searcy AR         93  74  95  75 /  40  30  30  20
Stuttgart AR      93  76  94  76 /  40  30  30  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...56



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