Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 031707
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1207 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT SOME AFTN CU TO DEVELOP BUT THREAT FOR ISOLD STORMS WELL
BELOW 1O PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

UPDATE...
CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK. ANY LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST....AS LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS THE REGION.

55

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...03/12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WL CONT THRU THE PD...AS SOME MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS
STREAM SEWD ACRS THE REGION. AFTN CU WL FORM BUT WL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE ARND SUNSET. ANY CONVECTION THAT MANAGES WL RMN ISOLD
AND THEREFORE WL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FCST. /44/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE ROCKIES AND MOVE AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
ARKANSAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IN NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH TODAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN SOUTH MISSOURI NEAR
THE ARKANSAS BORDER TUESDAY. EXPECT MCS DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO
BE GREATEST IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. SMALL RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.&&

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
RAIN CHCS WL LINGER ACRS THE FA FRI AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND AS A FNTL BNDRY LINGERS OVR AR. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING
ADDITIONAL UPR SUPPORT THRU THE REGION FRI AND SAT...INTERACTING
WITH THE FNT TO PRODUCE SCTD SHRA/TSRA.

RAIN CHCS WL BE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES ALOFT
STARTS TO BLD BACK EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS WL ALSO ALLOW FOR
HOTTER TEMPS TO RETURN AS WELL. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE HEAT INDICES WL
RMN BLW ADVY CRITERIA...BUT CONDS WL CONT TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEADLINES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     96  73  95  74 /  10   0  30  40
CAMDEN AR         99  73  98  75 /  10   0  20  20
HARRISON AR       94  71  91  70 /  10   0  30  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    99  72  97  76 /  10   0  20  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  99  73  98  75 /  10   0  20  30
MONTICELLO AR     99  72  98  75 /  10   0  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      99  72  97  75 /  10   0  20  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  94  72  92  70 /  10   0  30  50
NEWPORT AR        96  73  95  74 /  10   0  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     99  73  98  76 /  10   0  20  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   97  72  95  74 /  10   0  20  40
SEARCY AR         97  73  97  74 /  10   0  20  40
STUTTGART AR      98  73  97  75 /  10   0  20  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...32



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