


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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897 FXUS64 KLZK 160542 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 -Chances for rain and thunderstorms will slowly diminish through mid-week. -Temperatures are expected to increase to above-normal values over much of the state, with hazardous heat persisting through the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Hot and humid condns wl cont to headline the fcst, w/ some ocsnl chcs for rain chcs mixed over the next seven days. Thru the remainder of the work week, incrsgly hot and humid condns are expected, w/ high temps set to reach the upper 90s acrs the Srn two- thirds of the state, and some locations flirting w/ 100 degrees. Area heat index values are expected to exceed 105 degrees at most locations the next few days, necessitating the return of heat advisories, which wl be needed Thurs and Fri as well. Some low-end rain chcs wl exist acrs Nrn AR later this aftn to evng, ahead of a stalling cdfrnt over the Ozark Plateau, but most precip wl lkly manifest as isolated showers and storms, w/ a lucky few receiving cooling rainfall/outflow. Thurs is currently advertising the hottest area-wide temps, w/ portions of the metro possibly reaching 100 degrees by the aftn hours. Overall, 10th to 90th percentile NBM spread is only suggesting 3-4 degrees difference acrs the state, w/ 25th percentile output still suggesting temps in the upper 90s at most locations, indicating higher confidence in high- end temps. Thru the weekend, more widespread PoPs appear possible as Gulf moisture fm a decaying tropical system moves acrs the Gulf Coast. Uncertainties remain for now regarding the extent of precip covg, and magnitude of rainfall. Any potential relief fm weekend rainfall looks to be short-lived w/ heat returning by early next week. Swrly sfc winds acrs the Srn Cntrl US and H500 high pressure bcmg centered over the FA wl contribute to temps once again climbing to near or at the century mark over portions of the FA. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR condns wl prevail thru the PD, w/ only some patchy fog possible around the region thru 12-14Z Wed mrng, particularly where rainfall occurred Tues aftn/evng. SWrly winds wl resume Wed aftn w/ no other sig wx expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 96 75 97 76 / 20 10 10 10 Camden AR 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 91 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10 Hot Springs AR 97 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 98 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0 Monticello AR 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 10 0 Mount Ida AR 95 72 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 92 72 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 Newport AR 96 76 98 77 / 10 10 10 0 Pine Bluff AR 97 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 96 74 98 76 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 96 75 98 76 / 10 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 96 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069- 123. && $$ DISCUSSION...72 AVIATION...72