Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301139 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUE
TO ROTATE OVER AR...AND BRINGING VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS. THE MAIN
AREA FOR RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST OF KHOT AND KADF...AND WILL AFFECT
MOSTLY AREAS EAST. VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SEEN WITH PATCHY
IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE NE TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH AR TODAY AND SWITCH
WINDS TO THE W TO NW AND CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH A LOWER
CHANCE OF RAIN. WINDS WILL START E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH...THEN
BECOME SW TO W TO NW WITH THE FRONT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MCV MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND IT. AROUND MIDNIGHT...RAINFALL
RATES WERE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WITH REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING. WHILE THE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT AS INTENSE NOW...WILL
KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS THERE IS
NO PLACE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO RUNOFF.

GUIDANCE HAS COME BACK IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT TERM...AND
CAN FINALLY SAY THERE IS AN END TO THE RAINFALL IN SIGHT. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TODAY...AND BRING DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...IT WILL NOT
ENTIRELY EXIT THE AREA...AND HAVE KEPT SMALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL END THE SHORT TERM...AS UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...
WITH A DRIER WEATHER TREND...WITH WARMING TEMPS. MODELS HAVE THE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING MUCH STRONGER INTO THE
REGION...DRYING CONDITIONS OUT AND WARMING TEMPS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
MAY BE OVER NORTHERN LA...AND ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY FORM...WHILE
DRY OVER AR. ON THURSDAY...SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS IN THE
MODELS...WITH A SE TO S SURFACE FLOW OVER AR...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN AR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT
HIGH FOR ANY CONVECTION. ON FRIDAY... MODELS HAVE THE SAME SCENARIO
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES A BIT MORE WEST...AND A NORTH TO NE UPPER
FLOW MAY SHOW SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY POSSIBLE IN THE MEAN FLOW. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST...BUT AS STATED
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS WILL START IN THE LOWER
80S FOR HIGHS...THEN WARM TO THE MID 80S WITH SOME UPPER 80S BEING
SEEN ON FRIDAY. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN
A BIT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59








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