Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 250212 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.Discussion...

Convection this evening continues to move east and weaken. Did see
isolated severe storms this evening with around 1 inch hail, heavy
rain and plenty of lightning. Most of the convection was located
over northern and parts of central AR. Have updated forecast earlier
to keep with convection trends, and will keep some chance overnight,
especially with convective complex over OK which is moving ESE
toward AR. Will lower temps a degree over NE areas due to rain and
clouds. Otherwise, will only fine tune elements with late evening
update. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 645 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

.Aviation...

VFR flight conditions will be seen overall to start this evening,
except over northern AR where MVFR and isolated IFR will be
possible. Area of showers and thunderstorms over northern to
north-central AR will continue to move east. Central and southern TAF
sites will only see isolated showers this evening. Tonight
convection over OK will gradually move southeast and reach AR. It is
expected to weaken and due to uncertainty, only used VCSH or VCTS.
Areas of IFR and MVFR will be more widespread Wednesday AM. Winds
will be SE to SW at 5 to 10 mph, while light and variable in spots.
(59)

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Night

Cont to monitor convective trends this aftn acrs the fa. most of the
activity thus far has been confined to the nrn part of the cwa...on
the periphery of the upr rdg. persistent sly winds have brought
warmer and more humidity back to the region today...with mid aftn
temps in the 80s in most areas. the exception being the rain-cooled
locations in nrn AR.

Some of the rapid model update data sources rmn at odds with initial
convection ovr the fa this aftn...so fcst confidence heading into
tngt regarding pops in not that great. bottom line is the timing and
areal of coverage of convection heading into wed wl be determined by
smaller scale influences...ie bndrys and possible mcs activity.

For tngt...wl cont current fcst trends with highest pops mentioned
ovr the nwrn part of the fa...with lesser chcs over sern AR. There
is the possibility that another complex storms could organize ovr OK
tngt then translate into wrn AR wed mrng...with an overall dcrs in
coverage heading into wed aftn. models actually indc some weak upr
ridging ovr the area later wed into wed ngt. did leave slgt chc pops
ovr nrn ar late in the pd.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday

Moisture will continue to stream on the west side of the upper ridge
heading into the weekend. Expect rain chances to be on the increase,
especially Thursday night into Friday as a storm system moves
northeast out of Texas and overspreads the state Friday. Remnants
of the system will still be seen on Saturday, particularly over
Northeast Arkansas. By Sunday through the early part of the work
week, quiet weather will resume. To start temperatures will remain
near seasonal normals with the threat to go a few degrees above by
next week as ridging returns.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short term...44 / Long term...61



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