Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 241955
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS REMAIN A CONCERN THE REST OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...REMNANT BOUNDARY/MOISTURE BAND/SURFACE
TROUGH STILL LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
THE FEATURE IS ILL-DEFINED. BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
STRETCHING FROM THE CAPE INTO ORANGE AND LAKE COUNTIES ARE LIKELY
TRACING OUT THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY PUSHED WELL INLAND IN DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WHERE
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ARE COLLIDING ALONG/WEST OF I-4.

THREAT FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.IN
THIS REGIME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED
AND THE THREAT FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE
FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARDS AND ACROSS SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES
WITH BAHAMIAN STREAMER MOVING INTO THE COAST. COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A FEW REACHING INTO
THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE ROBUST EAST FLOW. ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING
STRIKES ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
EITHER...MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE ACTIVITY DOESN`T HAVE
FAR TO GO OFF THE GULF STREAM.

WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED FOR PREFERRED LOCATIONS TO REMAIN ABOVE 80.
INLAND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 70S.

MEMORIAL DAY...SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE AS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH EXTENDS SEAWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH FIRM UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVERHEAD.

SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHILE BRINGING IN DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.
LOWER LEVELS WILL TAP INTO SOME DRIER AIR AS WELL BUT ENOUGH REMAINS
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS
FEW DAYS...PREVAILING FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS BEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE
WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN TO ROUND OUT THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT...THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG AND
OFFSHORE THE MID AND SE ATLC SEABOARD WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH MID
WEEK...KEEPING A STRONG WRN ATLC SFC RIDGE IN PLACE. BOTH THE SFC
AND MID LEVEL RIDGES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BEGINNING WED AS THEY GET
SQUEEZED FROM THE NW AND SE BY A ERN CONUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND A CUTOFF LOW/INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER THE WEST CTRL ATLC.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MEAN DRYING SPREADING WWD OVER THE PENINSULA
TUE-WED...WITH LOW END POPS CONFINED TO THE WRN INTR TUE...DROPPING
BACK TO LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD. MAX TEMPS WILL
BE TYPICAL OF A BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW REGIME...M80S NEAR THE COAST AND
U80S TO NEAR 90F INLAND. MINS RANGE FROM L70S INLAND TO M70S ALONG
THE COAST (U70S AT THE BEACHES) AS EASTERLY WINDS STAY UP OVERNIGHT
MON AND TUE...POSSIBLY DROPPING OFF A BIT BY WED NIGHT.

THU-SUN...WEAK/FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WRN
ATLC WHILE MID LEVEL HGT FALLS WORK EITHER WWD FROM THE ATLC (ECM
SOLN) OR NWD FROM THE CARIBBEAN (GFS SOLN) TWD FL BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LOCAL ATMOSPHERE
MOISTENING AND GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIP BY FRI
NIGHT...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI IF THE ECM IS RIGHT. WENT WITH
PRECIP-FREE FCST THU THRU FRI...WITH 20-30 POPS FRI NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO...MINS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...WDLY SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA AFFECTING JUST WEST OF KORL-
KISM AND VCNTY KLEE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH WEST OF REGION THROUGH
21Z.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST REMAINDER OF PERIOD
WITH POSSIBLY TSRA NEAR KVRB-KSUA DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE
CARRIED VCSH FOR ALL COASTAL SITES WITH POSSIBILITY OF TEMPO MVFR
CIGS IN/NEAR SHRA.

SIMILAR PATTERN ON MONDAY WITH MORNING COASTAL SHRA SHIFTING INLAND
LATE MORNING AND A FEW TSRA VCNTY ORLANDO METRO/LAKE COUNTY TAF
SITES 17Z-21Z.

&&

TONIGHT-MEMORIAL DAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS AREA REMAINS ON SOUTH SIDE OF
FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20KTS INTO MONDAY...WITH PREVAILING 20KTS
AT TIMES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. AREAL/TIME EXTENT DOESN`T QUITE
LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR SCA...BUT WILL DEFINITELY CONTINUE TO CARRY
CAUTION FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. CHOPPY SEAS 3-5FT NEAR SHORE
AND 4-6FT OFFSHORE IN A 6-8SEC PERIOD.

TUE-FRI...STRONG WRN ATLC HIGH WILL KEEP WX PATTERN RATHER STAGNANT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW AVERAGING 15KT WILL
KEEP SEAS IN THE 4-5FT RANGE...THOUGH SWELL WORKING INTO THE LOCAL
WATERS ON A PERSISTENT...LONG E TO OCNLY ESE FETCH COULD PRODUCE 6FT
SEAS AT TIMES WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS...

SUNDAY MAY 24TH...
DAB 75 (1995)
MCO 74 (1991)
MLB 76 (1995)
VRB 77 (1997)

MONDAY MAY 25TH...
DAB 75 (1991)
MCO 74 (2014)
MLB 76 (1991)
VRB 77 (1991)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  85  74  86 /  20  20  10  10
MCO  73  90  72  90 /  10  20  10  20
MLB  76  86  76  86 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  76  87  75  87 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  73  91  74  90 /  10  30  10  20
SFB  73  89  72  88 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  74  89  73  89 /  10  20  10  20
FPR  75  87  74  86 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI



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