Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 060841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT...

CURRENT...QUITE AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS HERE. U40S/L50S
WHERE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EXISTS AND U50S UP TO 70 DEGREES (SUA)
WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE. IN COMPARISON OKEECHOBEE HAS FALLEN
TO 50 DEGREES. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. STILL MAY SEE A FEW LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF I-4. VERY
DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS VIEWED ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED FROM BOTH KTBW/KXMR 00Z EVENING
SOUNDINGS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
DECK OFF OF THE EAST COAST BUT THESE CEILINGS OF 4.0-6.0 KFT ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PENETRATING INLAND THUS FAR THIS MORNING.
NEXRAD 88D BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SPITS/SPRINKLES OFF OF THE
TREASURE COAST AS A SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
TAKES PLACE DUE TO ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH.

TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

SUN...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. THIS WILL GENERATE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TRANSPORTING A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE INTO THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL BE A
GOOD 13-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL THEN RELAX INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TUE NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC040-060 MARINE STRATOCU DECK ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING SOME TROUBLE SPREADING INLAND...BUT
BELIEVE IT INEVITABLY WILL LATER THIS MORNING. INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH VERY SLOW
MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT SPRINKLES AND LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST FL/NORTH BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERY
PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME LCL OR AREAS OF LIFR.
EARLY MORNING NW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL VEER TO NNE/NE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE BACKING TO NWRLY AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO BACK TO NWRLY
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WHILE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FL/BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH RAPID DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. TO START OFF...WILL REPLACE CURRENT
SCA WITH AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS
MORNING (09Z/4AM - 15Z/10AM). WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING 03Z/10PM TONIGHT FLAGLER BEACH-SEBASTIAN
INLET...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET AT 06Z/1AM. SAME
TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EXCEPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

NERLY WINDS BACK LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT TO NWRLY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES BUT
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY...WHEREAS SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND 5-7 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
GULF STREAM...SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN MORNING.

SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SUN AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
STRONG NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-13 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXIST NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  48  57  38 /  30  60  10   0
MCO  68  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
MLB  70  50  60  39 /  30  70  10   0
VRB  72  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0
LEE  63  43  58  40 /  30  50  10   0
SFB  65  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
ORL  66  46  58  42 /  30  60  10   0
FPR  74  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
     60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....WEITLICH


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