Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 290201
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE IS ADVECTING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT THAT CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO OSCEOLA AND SRN BREVARD
COUNTIES. OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO HOLD ON TO RAIN CHANCES A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING. AFTER 1
AM...ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR SKY
COVER/TEMP UPDATES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FRI...RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS RECOVERING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL BREAKING DOWN THE STRONGER INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE AND
LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PRECIP COVERAGE FOR MID-LATE
SUMMER...FAVORING MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST UP TO MID 90S INLAND.

SAT-WED...LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE RELOCATES AND PERSISTS FAR TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW ONE OF THE FIRST EXTENDED PERIODS OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL ONSHORE FLOW OF THIS ATYPICAL EARLY-MID 2014 WET
SEASON. DEEP...ALBEIT LIGHT S/SE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED DAILY LIGHTNING
STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...AND INLAND FROM EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND.

TUTT CELL FORECAST TO REACH THE BAHAMAS MON...THEN CONTINUE
WESTWARD TO FLORIDA STRAITS/CUBA BY WED. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH MAY HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO INCREASE SE FLOW AND
MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL STAY WITH CLIMO CONDITIONS
UNTIL CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CHC SHRA/TSRA FROM KFPR-KVRB-KMLB THROUGH 04Z. OTHERWISE...BCMG VFR
ALL AREAS AFT 05Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE INTO TONIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL DECLINE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
BECOMING 5 FEET OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

VOLKMER/MOSES








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