Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 281533
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1030 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017
Latest RAP analysis shows an H100-H70 ridge axis blanketing central
FL, generating a brisk SE flow over the CWA. Several wake eddies
formed on the leeside of the nrn Bahamas which provided the focus
for an echo train to dvlp and push onshore the Treasure/Gold Coasts
this mrng. Aloft, and H85-H30 anticyclone centered just north of the
Yucatan Channel generating a deep W/NW flow resulted in strong
mid/upr lvl evacuation abv the H50 lyr. The combination of these two
features resulted in classic heavy coastal precip pattern that tends
to affect the Treasure Coast from time to time. Radar estimated
rainfall btwn 6"-8" were noted btwn Jensen Beach and JD State
Park...sfc obs of 3-5" were recorded in and around the Stuart area.
Almost all of the rain fell east of I-95 btwn Nettles Island and
Jupiter Inlet. Precip was waining as of mid mrng...flood warnings
have expired and will not be reissued.
Southeast flow will continue thru the H100-H70 lyr as the ridge axis
overhead remains anchored in place. Mrng RAOB soundings measured
1.00"-1.25" PWat values acrs the region, most of which was
concentrated in the H100-H70 lyr. A pocket of enhanced low level
moisture assocd with the heavy rain over the Treasure Coast will
work its way to the NW thru the day, bringing a slgt chc of shras to
areas south of Cape Canaveral and the Orlando Metroplex. H85-H30 lyr
is too dry (dewpoint depressions btwn 15-20C) and mid H85-H50 lapse
rates too shallow (arnd 5.5C/KM) to support deep convection.
Warm air advection from the SE flow will push coastal temps into
the L80s...interior temps into the M80s.
Sfc winds: Thru 01/00Z...E/SE 8-12KTS. Btwn 01/00Z-01/03Z...bcmg SE
Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 28/16Z...N of KISM-KEVB areas IFR/lcl LIFR cigs
and vsbys in FG/BR/low stratus...btwn KFPR-KPBI sct MVFR shras. Btwn
28/16Z-28/24Z...S of KISM-KMLB slgt chc MVFR shras. Aft 01/07Z...W
of KMLB-KOBE ptchy MVFR vsbys in BR...NW of KISM-KEVB lcl LIFR
vsbys/cigs in FG.
Ridge axis draped over the I-4 Corridor will maintain a gentle to
moderate E/SE breeze acrs the lcl Atlc. Lcl data buoy network
measuring 3-4FT seas nearshore and 4-5FT offshore...anticipate
little change this aftn as the ridge axis remains anchored acrs the
region. The SE flow has persisted for the past few days, long enough
to put most of the lcl Atlc under the shadow of the nrn Bahamas,
allowing short pd chop to push acrs area. Dominant wave pds AOB 6sec
will result in rough conds over the open Atlc.
Long Term/Impact WX...Lascody