Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 260822
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
422 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
...Hazardous Boating Conditions Developing Today...
Today...Canadian high pressure centered north of the Great Lakes,
with a ridge axis extending SE to the mid atlc coast, will build
south over Florida. The tightening pressure gradient will produce
breezy/windy E/NE winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph at
the coast. There will not be as much high (cirrus) clouds but fast
moving marine stratocumulus will move in off the Atlc which may
produce a period of broken/overcast skies this afternoon. Moisture
will remain shallow at the base of the subsidence inversion so
measurable rain chances look quite low. But cannot rule out a few
light showers/sprinkles mainly from Brevard to Martin counties.
High temperatures will be in the lower to mid 80s.
The increasing onshore flow will produce rough surf at the beaches
so have issued a Beach Hazards Statement.
Tonight...East winds will persist with breezy conditions near the
coast and mild temperatures holding in the low to mid 70s along
the coast, mid 60s far interior.
Thursday-Sunday...High pressure will move seaward off the Mid-
Atlantic coast late in the week. A continuing ENE wind flow from the
open Atlc will keep stable and mild conditions in the forecast.
Brief and isolated showers will be possible through Friday along the
central and south coast with a low chance of any measurable amounts.
Extended...Not much change in the onshore wind pattern is shown next
week. High pressure along the North FL/GA waters will be reinforced
by another area of high pressure building into the area from the
TN/OH Valleys. A dry forecast is indicated at this time for next
VFR through 27/12Z. Gusty winds up to 25 knots from the E this
afternoon MLB southward.
Today/Tonight...Deteriorating boating conditions. Easterly
pressure gradient will tighten as large high pressure builds down
the eastern seaboard. Winds will increase near 20 knots across
most of the waters by afternoon and 25 knots across the southern
waters tonight. So Small Craft Advisory looks good, except Caution
for the nearshore Volusia waters. Seas will build from 3 to 5 feet
this morning to 7 to 9 feet tonight.
Late Week...Onshore winds with winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas 7 to 9
ft over the advisory area Thu. Waters north of the Cape will
experience slightly better conds...however headlines for caution
winds/seas are likely over the remainder of the waters on Thu and
into Saturday. A gradual improvement in wind and sea state can be
expected early next week with high pressure north of the area
weakening while drawing progressively closer to the NE FL waters
this weekend and early next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 83 67 81 67 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 84 67 84 66 / 10 10 10 10
MLB 83 73 83 71 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 83 73 83 70 / 20 20 10 20
LEE 84 64 85 65 / 0 10 10 0
SFB 84 66 83 66 / 10 10 10 0
ORL 84 66 84 68 / 10 10 10 10
FPR 83 73 82 70 / 20 20 10 20
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Friday
for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for Sebastian Inlet
to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet
20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-