Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 300736
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH
AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WLY WIND PROFILE ALOFT SHOULD BRING EARLY SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST COAST.
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED.

ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFTN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORM HAZARD SHOULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
LINGERING PCPN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD COME TO A RATHER EARLY
END LATE THIS AFTN AND PRECIP CHCS TAPER BACK TO ISOLD IN COVERAGE
PAST DARK.

WED-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. INITIAL GULF
SOURCE PCPN MOVING IN FROM WEST APPEARS REASONABLE FROM AROUND
OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY
DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR
CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO
THE NEED FOR SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE
ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS
GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.

EXTENDED...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING
NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MARINE BASED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH AT LEAST SEASONALLY TO
LOW END SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TODAY AS
MONDAY...HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING NORTH AND INTO THE
AFT HOURS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES. WEST COAST RADARS
DETECTING SHOWERS COMING ASHORE CITRUS AND HERNANDO COUNTIES THAT
MAY MAKE IT TO LAKE COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET. SWAN SEAS ABOUT A FOOT HIGH COMPARED TO NOAA AND SCRIPPS
BUOYS.

WED-SAT...THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST S OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT
WITH A LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM
THE MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  73  93  74 /  40  40  40  20
MCO  92  73  94  74 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  92  73  92  75 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  93  75 /  30  30  30  30
LEE  90  76  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  90  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  92  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  71  93  74 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST



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