Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 012031
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...

...WARMING TREND ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...

...LINGERING SWELL TO INCREASE THE RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF SPRING BREAK...

CURRENT...INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA HAVING REACHED AT LEAST
THE U70S. LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME MIST HAS HELD BACK TEMPS IN THE
U60S TO L70S THERE. SOME DIURNAL FORCED CONVECTION HAS POPPED OVER
THE INTERIOR FROM LAKE OKEE NWD THROUGH ORLANDO AND MOVING TOWARD
LAKE COUNTY...LAKE GEORGE AND THE OCALA FOREST. AFTER MAKING A FEW
TWEAKS...PLAN TO GO WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO COVER LATE AFTERNOON
PRECIP.

OVERNIGHT...LOCAL PGRAD BECOMES NEXT TO NIL TONIGHT AS WEAK BUBBLE
FORMS ACROSS THE SE AND DRIFTS OVERHEAD. SCT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER
LAKE COS AND ADJCT AREAS A COUPLE HRS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR DENSE FOG EPISODE AND THE MAV GUIDANCE
HAS BECOME MUCH MORE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THE PROSPECT. HIGH SURFACE
DEW PT AIR MASS COUPLED WITH DIFFUSE REMNANT TROUGH...WEAKENING
SURFACE.LOW LEVEL WINDS... AND DECREASING DIURNAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT BEGINNING NOT TOO LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE...AND THIS WILL BE HIT
HARDER IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT.

MON...WEAK HIGH REMAINS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY. VERY
LIGHT SFC WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH COULD HOLD BACK TEMPS FROM REACHING MOS-
ADVERTISED MAXES BY A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND NOT
QUITE AS HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WITH SLIGHT MEAN DRYING OF THE LOCAL
AIR MASS KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST. MAXES IN THE L80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST. CHILLY EARLY MARCH SURF TEMPS WILL KEEP MAXES IN THE U70S
ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COAST BEACHES...M70S IN COASTAL VOLUSIA.

A LINGERING MODERATE SWELL OF 4-5FT IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR
RIP CURRENTS HIGH AS THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF SPRING BREAK STARTS.

TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AND
SHIFTS FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO MID WEEK. A WARMER AND DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS AMPLE RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
WILL BE WATCHING FOR AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS AND WARMING OVER THE PENINSULA.

FRI-SUN...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW
FOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO NE FLOW AND POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING FOR LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO SUGGEST SOME SEMBLANCE OF A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FOR NOW...KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST...THOUGH FUTURE FORECAST ITERATIONS MAY HAVE TO
INCREASE POPS FURTHER. AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND NE FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 00Z...MOSTLY VFR SCT025-030 WITH LCLY BKN MVFR
CIGS. EXCEPTION WILL BE IFR CIGS OVC005-008 AROUND KOMN-KDAB-KEVB.
THESE DON`T LOOK TO BREAK ANYTIME SOON AS IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF THE LCL AERODROMES BY 06Z IF
NOT A LITTLE BEFORE IN SOME SPOTS AND LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/MON...WINDS HAVE FALLEN OFF SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE MAOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AROUND 10KT OR
SO NEAR SHORE AND 15 TO PERHAPS 20KT WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...SEAS
ARE STILL IN THE 6-8FT RANGE. RATHER THAN ADJUST THE OFFSHORE SCA TO
"SEAS ONLY" WILL JUST LEAVE IT AS IT IS...SINCE IT EXPIRES IN 3HR.
SWELLS WILL LIKELY KEEP SEAS AROUND 7FT OR SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF SCA FOR SEAS CAN BE ISSUED FOR THE EARLY
TONIGHT PD IF IT IS DEEMED NEEDED. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLACKEN TO AOB 10KT...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-5FT IN A MODERATE
SWELL ON MONDAY.

TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION INTO
MID WEEK WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WED-THU. WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS LATE WEEK WITH
BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTH BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  75  61  78 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  62  81  63  83 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  65  79  64  79 /  10  10   0  10
VRB  65  80  63  81 /  10  10   0  10
LEE  62  80  62  82 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  61  79  61  81 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  63  80  63  82 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  65  79  64  81 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-
     20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WEITLICH


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