Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 202046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
346 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREA WILL CONTINUE TRANSITION TO HIGHER
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THANKS TO DEEPENING SLY FLOW AND AN APCHG
SHORTWAVE. MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH PROXIMITY
TO A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS DURING SUNDAY. QPF AMTS SWL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH NO
GREATER THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH IN AFFECTED SPOTS
SUN AFTN.

CONSIDERABLE HIGHER CLOUDS WL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EARLY SUNDAY. LOWS WL BE MILDER DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE. HIGHER
RAIN CHCS WL BE CONFINED TO OSCEOLA ND N BREVARD CO`S NWD DURING
THE DAY SUN WITH ONLY ISOLD CHC OVER THE TREASURE CST AND LAKE
OKEE. SCT COVERAGE GENERALLY ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE AREA WITH
COT`D DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTO LATE SUNDAY.

SUN NIGHT-MON...SFC LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST ALONG
STALLED FRONT ACROSS N FL IN RESPONSE TO U/L DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE STATE. STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE EVEN FURTHER SUN NIGHT AND MON LEADING TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT WHERE GREATER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND U/L DIVERGENCE IS
ANTICIPATED. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES UP TO 60-70
PERCENT FROM ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD DECREASING TO 30-40 PERCENT
TOWARD OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT THAT MAY HELP
GENERATE A FEW STORMS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT THIS WILL BE
MAINLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

TUE-WED...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT AND DEEPENING OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
N/NE FROM THE LWR MS VALLEY. AS TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND EVENTUALLY CROSS THE
STATE MID WEEK. PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE CROSS THE REST OF
EAST CENTRAL FL INTO WED. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS UP TO 40-45 KNOTS AS BAND MOVES THROUGH SO FAST MOVING STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS STILL A CONCERN.

CHRISTMAS DAY-SAT...IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. MORNING LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON FRI WILL
CONTINUE KEEP WEATHER DRY AND AFTER A COOL MORNING IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S...A SLOW MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT RUNS INTO WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
ON SAT AS TEMPERATURES MODIFY TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREAWIDE WITH INCRSG CLOUDINESS MNLY FM 12-20K FT
OVERNIGHT INTO SUN. SCT-BKN COVERAGE MNLY NR FL 050-080 WITH
ISOLD-SCT SHRA DVLPG FM 14Z-19Z SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SEAS CONTINUE 2 FT OR LESS INTO SUN WITH MOSTLY
LIGHT 10 KT OR LESS WINDS. FETCH PROTECTION NR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
WL REDUCE WV HGHTS. A SMALL SWELL HGHT NR 10-11SEC WL ADD SOME TO
MEASURED WV HGHTS.

MON-THU...FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO MID WEEK. S/SW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ESPECIALLY TUE INTO WED AND THEN WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AS THEY
SWITCH TO THE W/NW BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS IN A MOIST AIR MASS MON/TUE...
BUT A PERIOD OF STRONG STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO
WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  75  63  76 /  10  40  70  60
MCO  59  78  63  77 /  10  30  50  50
MLB  62  77  65  78 /  10  20  50  40
VRB  60  78  64  78 /  10  20  40  40
LEE  57  75  63  77 /  10  40  70  60
SFB  59  77  64  76 /  10  40  60  50
ORL  60  77  64  77 /  10  40  60  50
FPR  57  77  64  79 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WEITLICH






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