Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 180100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Another early start to diurnal convection, although warm mid lvl
temps...H70 readings arnd 10C and H50 temps arnd -6C...kept the
strongest convection from dvlpg until arnd 20Z. Storms initialized
north of I-4 by midday and have propagated steadily southward thru
early evng with outflow boundaries interacting with the east coast
sea breeze. Highest radar recorded winds were in the low 40mph
range, but highest recorded sfc gusts were blo 30mph. Lcl heavy rain
in and around the Orlando Metroplex with radar estimating up to 3.5"
just east of MCO. One brief funnel cloud vcnty of MCO but no reports
of damage or touchdown.

RAP40 analysis shows the Bermuda Ridge axis over central FL...
resulting in a very weak pgrad with variable winds thru 10kft: WSR-
88D wind profiler at KMLB indicated E winds arnd 10KTS, the USAF
915Mhz profiler measuring NW winds arnd 5kts...and KTBW showing N
winds arnd 5kts. Deep moisture concentrated over the spine of the
peninsula due to east/west coast sea breeze convergence, drying
rapidly to the east with RAP40 indicating H100-H70 mean RH blo 70pct
over the lcl Atlc waters.

Lingering convection south of U.S. 192 will gradually burn out
through 02Z. A few shras could work their way back to the coast, but
bulk of the precip will occur along and west of the FL Turnpike
south of Lake-K. Remainder of the evening will be quiet once
available energy is consumed, while the drier air over the Atlc
stifles any coastal shower development. Will update fcst to remove
precip once it dissipates...remainder of the fcst is in good shape.


.AVIATION...Thru 19/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 18/04Z...bcmg S/SW AOB 3KTS. Btwn 18/12Z-18/15Z...
bcmg S/SW 5-8KTS. Btwn 18/15Z-18/17Z...coastal sites bcmg E/SE
8-12KTS. Btwn 18/20Z-18/22Z..interior sites bcmg S/SE 6-9KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Btwn 18/18Z-18/24Z...N of KISM-KEVB nmrs MVFR
shras/IFR tsras...S of KISM-KEVB sct MVFR shras/IFR tsras. Btwn
18/20Z-18/23Z...interior sites slgt chc LIFR tsras with vrbl sfc
wind G35KT.


Broad Bermuda Ridge axis just north over central FL will maintain a
loose pgrad over the lcl Atlc overnight. Light to gentle S/SW breeze
from Cape Canaveral northward...S/SE the south. Seas AOB 2ft.





Forecast Update...Bragaw
Impact WX/Radar...Volkmer
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