Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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621
FXUS62 KMLB 081947
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
245 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...Broad mid/upper level trough across the ern CONUS will
allow moisture to return from the Gulf toward central Florida
overnight. Mid level moisture increases by late evening with low
level moisture return across the srn half of the peninsula through
night. Some mid level lift and PVA aloft will help support some
light rain/sprinkles from the central areas southward overnight.
Will keep low rain chances from around Orlando southward. At the
surface the building high into the Southeast will increase the
pressure gradient with northerly winds increasing to 10-15 mph and
becoming breezy along the immediate coast later tonight. Lows will
range from the upper 40s NW of I-4 to around 60 across Martin county.

Friday...Band of mid/upper level moisture will transition slowly
southeastward through the forecast area with low level cloudiness
moving onshore from the Atlantic along the coast in the afternoon as
low lvl flow veers to the NNE. Mid level lift will keep chance for
some light rain and showers across central/srn sections gradually
transitioning toward the Treasure coast into late afternoon. Breezy
north winds and limited hours of sun will hold high temps
down...around 60 for Lake county to the upper 60s for Martin county.
Expect a strong longshore current at the beaches and rough surf by
late morning and afternoon.

Fri night...N/NNE winds will remain elevated overnight. Threat for
precipitation highest along the Space/Treasure coasts with activity
moving onto the coast from the coastal waters. Surface high pressure
will build out of the Midwest toward the Tennessee Valley.
Quite a difference in overnight lows expected with northerly flow
across the interior and slight onshore flow from near Melbourne
southward. Min temperatures in the 40s north of I-4 with 50s most
everywhere else except L-M60s from southern Brevard County through
Martin County.

Sat-Sun...Fairly strong surface high pressure centered over the
Tennessee Valley will gradually weaken and drift off of the eastern
seaboard by late in the period. Zonal flow with aloft with
increasing mid-level heights across the region. Deep layer moisture
values will gradually increase as winds veer to onshore, then SE/S
by late in the weekend. Highs Sat in the upper 60s/lwr 70s will warm
to 75-80 by Sunday. Low-level moisture return from the Atlantic will
support isolated Atlc showers some of which may move onshore along
the coast.

...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...

Extended...High pressure will lie over the western Atlc early next
week. A weak frontal boundary will approach central FL late Monday
with moisture just high enough to include a mentionable (20-30%)
rain chance. Differences between the guidance emerge during the
midweek time frame as a longwave trough tries to establish itself
over the eastern half of the U.S. The strength and timing of the
next front (Wed night/early Thu) will be highly dependent on the
eventual evolution of the trough.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mid level lift will spread mid level cloudiness across terminals
into late evening with lower CIGs developing across srn sections
overnight (south of KFPR). Should be mainly VFR outside of and
precip with very light rain from KMCO-KTIX psbl late tonight into
Friday morning. Higher shower chances across srn sections into Sat
morning and have included PROB30 groups from KFPR south.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Northerly wind surge expected across the waters tonight as
pressure gradient tightens with high pressure building twd the SE.
This will allow winds to increase to 15-20 knots. No changes to SCA
area with waters north of Sebastian going into an Advisory at 10 pm
and srn waters at 7 am. Seas building to near 7 ft in the gulf
stream north of Sebastian overnight.

Friday...North wind will increase from 15-20 knots to a solid 20
knots and gusty in the afternoon. Seas building to 6-7 ft across the
waters making conditions hazardous for small craft.

Fri Night...NNE/NE winds around 20 kts will build seas 6-9 ft over
the Gulf Stream and 5-7 ft elsewhere. Advisory for small craft will
be in place due to hazardous conditions.

Weekend...Winds veer to the northeast Sat while subsiding to around
15 knots over the northern waters and 15-20 knots over the central
and southern waters. Advisory conditions will linger across the
central and southern waters into Sat, with poor boating conditions
continuing into Sun. Winds veering to the ESE/SE Sun-Sun night will
still stay up near 15 knots, 15-20 kts south of Cape, with seas 4-6
feet.

Mon-Tue...Surface high pressure will be over the western Atlc, north
of the local coastal waters, thru early week. The pressure gradient
will be rather light through the period. Light/variable winds Mon
morning will become light onshore by afternoon thru Mon night. Winds
are forecast to continue to veer to southeast on Tue and southerly
Tue night while generally 10 kts or less.

Seas initially 3-4 ft near shore and 5 ft offshore will subside to 3-
4 ft areawide on Tue. An isolated to low end chc threat for showery
precipitation (20-30 percent) will be forecast.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  62  50  68 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  51  63  52  70 /  20  20  10   0
MLB  53  66  59  70 /  20  30  20  10
VRB  57  67  63  72 /  30  40  30  20
LEE  48  60  45  68 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  51  62  50  69 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  52  63  52  69 /  20  20  10   0
FPR  58  67  63  72 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Saturday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-
     20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
     Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 11 AM EST Saturday for
     Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Volkmer
LONG TERM....Sedlock



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