Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
000
FXUS64 KCRP 281108
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
608 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Key Messages:
- Marginal risk of severe weather today (Victoria Crossroads) and
Monday (all CWA).
- Coastal Flood Advisory and High risk of rip currents through
this evening.
A strong shortwave trough will continue to transition from the
Central Plains into the Great Lakes region through the period with
some associated energy making its way across the state. A line of
showers and thunderstorms currently crossing the Edwards Plateau
is expected to extend southeastward through the day today into
our CWA leading to a medium chance (30-60%) of showers/thunderstorms.
Although the current activity is forecast to weaken as it drifts
southward into our area, there will still be enough instability
(SBCAPE over 2500 J/kg) and little capping at the surface for some
of these storms to become strong to severe at times. The main
hazards associated to any strong storm that does develop will be
damaging winds (DCAPE over 1000 J/kg) and hail. Convection is
expected to start across the northwestern tier of the CWA closer
to daybreak, and transition eastward reaching the Victoria
Crossroads by mid to late morning. Although CAMs are only showing
isolated convection over the Crossroads by the afternoon,
deterministic models are indicating a very unstable airmass and no
capping in place. SPC has maintained a Marginal risk of severe
weather that clips into Victoria County through tonight.
Convective chances will decrease overnight as we lose forcing,
with only a slight chance remaining across the east. However,
chances will increase again on Monday areawide mainly due to the
combination of enough available moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.7") and a
moderately unstable airmass in place (SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg). On
Monday the cap will also be weak to non, therefore SPC has
maintained the entire CWA under a Marginal Risk for severe
weather. Again, the main threats will be for damaging winds and
hail. But, having said that, models have been trending drier
probably due to not enough forcing.
Aside from all of that, there are still some coastal and marine
hazards that will persist today, including a Coastal Flood
Advisory and a High risk of rip currents. Conditions though are
expected to improve by later this evening, as winds weaken
offshore and the seas subside. Nonetheless, a Moderate risk of
rip currents will remain in effect across area beaches through
Monday evening.
Expect warm temperatures with highs in the low 80s to mid 90s
today and tomorrow, although tomorrow will be a degree or so
warmer. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s areawide.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Key Messages:
- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms expected this week
- Minor coastal flooding possible through midweek
A more zonal flow will develop Monday night and persist into the
week. Moisture and warm air will continue to stream into the area
with southeast flow which could lead to diurnal showers and
thunderstorms for Tuesday. A brief break in convection is still
expected Tuesday night and Wednesday as high pressure noses into the
area. A series of shortwaves will move across South Texas beginning
Wednesday evening , leading to a 15-30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the work week.
The persistent southeasterly flow will continue to help push long
period swell ashore through the middle of this week. Minor coastal
flooding and a high rip current risk will be possible through
Wednesday, when swell periods should diminish.
Temperatures will be warm through the upcoming week, with highs in
the mid 80s to upper 90s daily across South Texas. I hate to bring
it up this early, but it looks as though heat index values will
reach 100-105 across the Rio Grande Plains through early this week.
Some relief may be in sight as a weak cold front approaches the area
over the weekend. Model guidance isn`t giving us much hope for much
cooler conditions, but drier air may filter in as the cold front
fizzles out over or just north of the area leading to cooler
apparent temperatures. We will have to wait and see how this front
actually behaves.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
MVFR ceilings prevail this morning, though VCT is currently VFR.
Expect ongoing thunderstorms to the north to move toward South
Texas, arriving in the early to mid morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings
are expected in and around any thunderstorms. VFR conditions could
develop this afternoon and early evening before MVFR ceilings
return overnight. Winds will be gusty this morning and, of course,
in and around any thunderstorms. Winds will weaken through the
evening and overnight hours with light winds expected by the end
of the TAF cycle.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Strong onshore flow with occasional gusts to 35 knots will be
possible through this morning. Seas will remain elevated through
Monday morning, therefore, the Small Craft Advisory will remain in
effect. Onshore flow becomes weak to moderate tonight, persisting
at these levels through the end of the week. There is a 15-40%
chance of showers and thunderstorms daily across the waters
through mid week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 87 75 89 75 / 30 10 30 20
Victoria 85 72 87 72 / 50 30 30 20
Laredo 94 73 95 75 / 30 0 20 10
Alice 88 73 91 73 / 40 10 30 20
Rockport 84 74 85 75 / 40 30 30 30
Cotulla 91 72 95 75 / 60 0 20 10
Kingsville 89 75 90 75 / 40 10 30 20
Navy Corpus 86 76 87 75 / 30 20 30 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-
442-443-447.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443-
447.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236-
237-250-255-270-275.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ANM
LONG TERM....LS
AVIATION...LS/77