956
FXUS64 KCRP 141125
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
625 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Determinsitic runs predict significant subsidence/drying today
over the CWA, as an upper level disturbance approaches the
Mississippi Valley region. The NAM/ECMWF predict increasing
700-300mb q-vector convergence over the region Wednesday. However,
the NAM/GFS predict below normal PWAT values during the period,
and thus no significant precipitation expected. Based on NAM
prediction of thermodynamic profiles at select locations,
patchy/areas of radiation fog may occur during the early morning
hours, adding credence to the SREF visibility probabilities. Given
the expected 6-7s swell periods/light wind (per WaveWatch), there
is a LOW rip current risk today along the Gulf-facing beaches of
the Middle Texas coast. The WaveWatch predicts increasing onshore
flow and swell periods Wednesday, yet local expert system suggests
a LOW rip current risk.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Key Messages:
- Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday.
- Elevated heat concerns possible on Thursday for the southern
Coastal Plains.

A series of mid-level shortwave disturbances are anticipated to
traverse across the region beginning Wednesday night into Thursday,
allowing for increased atmospheric forcing potential. Additionally,
PWATs are forecast to be notably elevated, ranging between 2-2.5
inches, significantly surpassing typical levels for this time of
year. Model guidance indicates the presence of robust instability,
with SBCAPE values ranging from 2500 to 3500 J/kg, with the GFS and
NAM signaling upwards of 4000 J/kg in portions of the inland Coastal
Plains. The presence of an atmospheric cap introduces some degree of
uncertainty, though recent model runs suggest a potential weakening
of this capping. Nonetheless, in light of the considerable
instability and favorable low-level moisture, SPC has introduced a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms on
Thursday for much of the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend, and Victoria
Crosroads. WPC has also identified portions of the northeast Coastal
Plains and the Victoria Crossroads as being in a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 1 out of 4) on Thursday. This suggests the
potential for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

Models also continue to portray an upper-level trough moving into
the region on Thursday, which will support the development of a
surface low pressure system over North Texas. This system will drag
a cold front into Central Texas, which is expected to pass through
South Texas by Friday and into the weekend. There remains
uncertainty regarding the extent to which this cold front will
advance into South Texas. Albeit even if it does, its impact on
temperatures is expected to be minimal.

On Thursday, contingent upon the precipitation activity, elevated
heat concerns may materialize across the southern Coastal Plains.
The persistence of onshore flow will sustain an abundance of
moisture across the region, allowing for the increase of heat
indices up to 110 degrees. Similar conditions may persist into
Monday and Tuesday of next week. We will continue to monitor the
need for Heat Advisories on these days as we get closer in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Brief MVFR/IFR visibilities early this morning, affecting mainly
the ALI and VCT terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through
early tonight. MVFR/IFR visibilities may develop again during the
06-12z Wednesday period over mainly the ALI and VCT terminals.
Generally weak winds during the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Generally weak northeast/east flow today. Increasing onshore flow
tonight/Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible early Thursday morning through
Thursday evening. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to
continue through much of the week and the remainder of the period.
Periods of elevated marine conditions are possible in our
southern bays and nearshore waters Thursday afternoon into the
overnight hours as winds are forecast to range between 20-25
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  70  90  78 /   0   0   0  10
Victoria          92  68  90  73 /   0   0   0  20
Laredo           100  71  99  79 /   0   0  10  10
Alice             95  68  93  77 /   0   0  10  10
Rockport          89  76  87  77 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           97  70  98  77 /   0   0  10  10
Kingsville        94  69  91  78 /   0   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       89  76  87  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...WC/87