Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230845
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING OF RAIN
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE 00 UTC MODEL SUITE INDICATE AN EVEN
FURTHER DELAY IN PRECIPITATION ONSET. THE EARLIER NAM AND GEM RUNS
KEPT RAIN OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THEIR LATEST RUNS. FURTHERMORE...THE OO UTC
RUNS OF THE WRF FURTHER INDICATE A DELAY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER EJECTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS. ALSO PUSHED BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH
DAKOTA TODAY.

WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
SHOULD BE THE COOL SPOT TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S...WHILE NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEES A LITTLE MORE SUN AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THE RAIN / THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES KEEP CONFIDENCE IN
THE OVERALL DETAILS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOMEWHAT LOW. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MORE ROBUST MODEL IN REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE NAM IS ON THE LOW END OF VALUES. THE
ECMWF IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF SOLUTIONS. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF NORTH DAKOTA. INSTABILITY IS STILL NOT VERY
HIGH ON SUNDAY...SO HAVE KEPT ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.
AS STATED EARLIER...MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON MONDAY...AND
THIS ALSO INFLUENCES THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THEY PRODUCE. WILL
BUMP UP THE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ON MONDAY WITH MORE
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY THE GFS...BUT WILL KEEP THINGS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WE ARE STILL SHOWING THE HIGHEST
TOTALS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1.00 - 1.25
INCHES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS
REMAIN IN THE NORTH WHERE WE HAVE 0.25 - 0.50 INCH THROUGH THAT
SAME TIME PERIOD.

THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.  HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO A BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
INSTABILITY OVERALL IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ISOLATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS ISSUANCE PUSHED BACK IN TIME THE MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS INTO KDIK/KBIS/KJMS TO OOZ SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS OUT OF NORTHERN TAF SITES OF
KISN AND KMOT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ


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