Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 272045
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT SLIDING THROUGH WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT IN MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROF CUTTING
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...BRINGING FAST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS SNOW OVER THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE. HAVE
ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING UP WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT. STILL SOME CONCERN IF THIS WILL SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS PUSHES EAST OVER OUR AREA BEFORE A POTENT
SHORT WAVE AND STRONG COLD FRONT MAKE THEIR APPROACH. EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE WEST
PUSHING INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S...WHILE COOLER CONDITIONS REMAIN
EAST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING TOWARDS EVENING AS THE FRONT WORKS IN. SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MODELS ADVERTISING SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WHICH MAY LEAD TO A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

THE CURRENT 12Z ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE PROJECTING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE LONG TERM...IS EXPECTED TO
BE RAIN. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME MORE LIKELY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST.

MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES STRONG SUPPORT ON WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE CONUS WEST/SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN SN CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
LOCATIONS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR
THROUGH TONIGHT. OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING BRINGING IFR VIS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION IT IN THE
KMOT TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON KBIS AND KISN AS
FG MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF CHANCES SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...JJS







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