Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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945
FXUS64 KCRP 210700 AAD
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
100 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Dense fog forming over the Northern Brush Country so have issued a
Dense Fog Advisory for that area. Have decided to include Webb
County as well as the northern portions of the county may
experience dense fog. May not get to Laredo (web cams right now
are not showing it...yet), but could for an hour or two so
decided to go with it as areal coverage for Webb County will be
sufficient.

Also, based on HRRR output which has been rather consistent over
the last couple of hours with its visibility forecast, have
extended the Dense Fog Advisory for the eastern half of the CWFA
and the coastal areas until 9 AM. Areas like Live Oak and Jim
Wells County may be done with the fog around sunrise, but did not
want to break up into too many product segments as confidence in
the accuracy in that type of timing is low (models and me are not
that good yet). Can always adjust the timing and cancel early if
need be. Updates are out.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1053 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...Update for 06z Aviation.

AVIATION...Flight rules are xpctd to continue to deteriorate
thru the night. IFR/LIFR CIGs/VSBYs have overspread much of the
region and CIGs/VSBYs should continue to gradually lower thru the
night...with LIFR/VLIFR VSBYs xpctd at KCRP/KVCT/KALI for a good
part of the night. KLRD TAF fcst is tougher. Thinking attm is that
KLRD will remain VFR much of the night...but there is a window
from roughly 08-10z /give or take an hr/ where IFR CIGs and lower
VSBYs may dvlp across the aerodrome before drier spreads Ewrd
late in the night. Poor flight rules should rapidly improve late
in the night/first hr or two after sunrise across KCRP/KALI and
eventually KVCT as said drier air spreads Ewrd...with VFR
prevailing drng the day. Weak/vrb sfc winds overnight becmg WNWrly
drng the day Sat and a little gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    52  74  49  73  58  /  10   0   0   0   0
Victoria          51  72  45  71  54  /  10   0   0   0   0
Laredo            51  75  48  79  57  /  10   0   0   0   0
Alice             51  75  46  77  55  /  10   0   0   0   0
Rockport          53  72  52  69  61  /  10   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           49  74  46  77  52  /  10   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        52  74  46  76  56  /  10   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       54  72  53  68  61  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     For the following zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...
     Goliad...Jim Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...
     McMullen...Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria...
     Webb.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning For the following
     zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Goliad...Jim Wells...
     Kleberg...Live Oak...Nueces...Refugio...San Patricio...
     Victoria.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning For the
     following zones: Duval...La Salle...McMullen...Webb.

GM...Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...
     Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
     Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     out 20 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM



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