Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 061127 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
527 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Will just go with tempo BR at all but KVCT where vsbys of 2 SM or
less have been observed. Reasoning is that enough dew on the
ground where morning sun could generate fog given light winds. SKC
by 15Z, and will stay that way with westerly winds become more NW
and N through the afternoon and evening. Front moves through and
when it is south of the area could have some isentropic upglide
with IFR or maybe LIFR CIGs after 07/06Z. Should have MVFR BR.
Could not rule out a few sprinkles late...but not in the terminals
at this time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Overall a benign forecast with just a slight chance for some light
rain Wednesday and maybe some patchy fog in the morning (so far not
much). Should see lots of sunshine today with warm temperatures, as
westerly winds bring the warm downslope component. A weak frontal
boundary moves into the area overnight and stalls south in the Rio
Grande Valley. There could be some isentropic upglide (295K) with
the boundary toward morning and Wednesday, and any rainfall would be
very light rain or drizzle. Because of this, will go with light rain
but with just 10 POPs as the moisture advection with the weak to
moderate upglide is not impressive (but could be enough to bring a
few sprinkles or an isolated hundredth of inch of rain or so). With
the boundary moving south overnight, will have cool temperatures
overnight once again especially over the northern areas where low to
mid 40s are expected (lower 50s near the Rio Grande and coastal
areas). Wednesday high temperatures could be tricky as if rain is
more than expected and clouds remain, some southern areas where high
temperatures are forecast to get to 70F or so (GFS and ECMWF bring
temperatures that warm but this may be a bit warm).

MARINE (Today through Thursday)...

Main issue will be the potential for gale conditions late Wednesday
night and Thursday. After coordination with BRO and HGX...will go
with a Gale Watch late Wednesday night and Thursday) Otherwise, will
see weak to moderate offshore flow with frontal boundary stalling
over the gulf waters Wednesday afternoon. After that, strong to very
strong offshore flow by Thursday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday Night)...

Very strong modified-arctic cold front is still progged to cross the
region early Thursday morning before quickly pushing offshore.
Isolated to scattered showers are still possible along the frontal
boundary even with the less idyllic moisture content. The stronger
forcing should be able to overcome this hiccup. Strong isallobaric
response behind the front and 40 knots of 925mb CAA will lead to
deeper mixing of the stronger winds downward. We have issued a Gale
Watch for our open Gulf waters beginning Thursday morning through
the remainder of the day as frequent gusts around 40 knots are
expected. Gusts upwards of 45 mph are possible over much of South
Texas Thursday, especially as you head towards the coast. Area bays
may see infrequent gale force gusts but with slightly cooler water
temperatures, when compared to the Gulf waters, mixing may be a bit
more limited.

Besides the winds behind the front, temperatures will also drop to
near freezing across our northern tier/outlying areas for lows on
Friday morning. Onshore flow quickly overcomes the weakening
offshore winds by Saturday and we see moisture begin to return to
the region as a weak coastal trough may develop and begin to produce
isolated to scattered rain for the later half of the weekend into
the new work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  53  70  53  54  /   0   0  10  30  40
Victoria          73  46  68  48  51  /   0   0  10  30  20
Laredo            78  51  67  50  53  /   0  10  10  10  30
Alice             79  49  70  51  53  /   0  10  10  20  40
Rockport          74  52  69  53  55  /   0   0  10  30  30
Cotulla           75  46  63  48  52  /   0   0  10  10  20
Kingsville        80  51  72  52  54  /   0  10  10  30  50
Navy Corpus       76  57  70  56  56  /   0   0  10  30  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening
     For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin
     Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port
     Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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