Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 252337 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
637 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...Have increased POPs for early this evening for the
Brush Country to account for ongoing precip. Convective temps were
reached this afternoon within an area of deeper moisture which
allotted for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Loss
of diurnal warming should result in a continued to fast
dissipation of ongoing convection over the next hour/early this
evening. Will also need to monitor northward moving outflow
boundary from the Lower TX Coast which may allow for additional
convection to develop this evening across the Gulf waters...if
the boundary`s characteristics hold together.

Additional forecast update expected later this evening to remove
mention of precip from Brush Country once it dissipates.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...Update for 00z Aviation.

AVIATION...Convection VCNTY KLRD as of writing should dspt within
first hr of TAF period...with convection currently to the SSE of
KALI possibly mvng within VCNTY range of aerodrome early in the
TAF period before dsptng. Remnant outflow boundaries may alter
wind direction at KCRP/KALI early this evening...but chances
currently too low to include in TAF attm. Otherwise...xpctng
convection across remainder of region to dspt early this evening
with clearing skies and VFR prevailing overnight. Cu field to
dvlp by mid mrng Wed with CIGs rising thru the day. Additional Iso
to Sct SHRA/TS may dvlp vcnty KLRD by late in the day Wed.
Breezy/gusty SErly sfc winds early in the TAF period becmg
lighter overnight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

A few showers and thunderstorms have been able to develop this
afternoon along the seabreeze well inland of the Coastal Bend. Not
looking for too much activity over the next couple of hours and
anything that does develop should dissipate by evening.

Rain chances are not looking much better tomorrow, in fact have
cut pops to the south a bit, thinking better moisture will be more
toward the northeast half of the CWA...and even there expect only
an isolated shower or thunderstorms as high pressure ridge settles
over the area at 500mb. A weak upper tropospheric low is noted
over the western Gulf but is expected to drift inland over Deep
South Texas and northern Mexico with no impact on weather here.

Hot temperatures expected once again tomorrow with similar highs
to today, just a degree or so warmer in some areas. Heat index
values also very similar to today, generally in the 105-109 range,
but a few sites could touch 110 briefly in the afternoon hours.
Low temps remain in the mid and upper 70s.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Adequate moisture will be in place on Thursday for isolated
convection to develop mainly over the coastal plains as precipitable
water values will range from 1.9-2 inches. The upper level ridge
will be from the Four Corner region and extend southeast into South
Texas Friday and Saturday. Air mass will become a bit drier for
Friday into Saturday with PWAT values below normal. Heat index
values could reach advisory criteria over the southern Coastal Bend
and Victoria area each afternoon from Thursday through Saturday.

An upper trough dives into the southeast United States over the
weekend. This will push a weak frontal boundary into East Texas on
Sunday before stalling. The 12Z GFS is a bit stronger with moving
this boundary into Southeast Texas on Sunday. Will lean toward the
ECMWF/Canadian solutions with boundary hanging up farther to the
north. Moisture axis will pool in advance of the boundary for early
next week with higher moisture reaching the area by Monday. Will
have to watch timing of possible short wave troughs moving down in
the northwest flow aloft during this period. Confidence on timing
this far out is low. But will increase rain chances to low end
chance category for the area on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  95  78  98  77  /  10  20  10  20  10
Victoria          77  97  76  98  76  /  10  20  10  20  10
Laredo            79 103  78 105  78  /  20  10  10  10   0
Alice             76  99  76 101  75  /  10  10  10  20  10
Rockport          82  93  81  93  81  /  10  20  10  20  10
Cotulla           77 102  76 104  77  /  20  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        78  98  78 100  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       82  93  81  93  81  /  10  20  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM



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