Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 281744 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...The overall forecast is in good shape and major
changes are not needed. The grids were updated to account for
latest observational trends though. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms may still be possible later this afternoon and will
keep pops as is. High temperatures are on track with upper 90s
over the Rio Grande Plains to upper 80s over the Victoria
Crossroads.

Updated for 18z aviation below.

&&

.MARINE...Borderline SCA conditions are occurring both over the
Bays and Gulf Waters. These conditions should continue into the
afternoon hours before subsiding later tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...A mix of mvfr/vfr ceilings will persist in the
afternoon hours. Low chances of showers and storms will exist and
will keep VCTS remarks at ALI/LRD where chances may be a little
better. Mvfr ceilings will return tonight and should continue
through the mid to late morning hour on Sunday.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 617 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...Note Aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Predominate MVFR conditions will persist until late
morning. Predominate VFR this afternoon/evening with brief MVFR
conditions near isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly west of U.S. 77. A transition to MVFR conditions expected
06-12z Sunday. Increasing onshore flow today then decreasing
tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 509 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...Concur with the GFS
deterministic with regard to the development of an upper ridge
over the region during the period. NAM deterministic predicts
moisture/instability sufficient for diurnal convection Today and
Sunday. Forecasting max heat index values generally below 105F
Today and Sunday.

SHORT TERM MARINE AND COASTAL...Will reissue the SCA for today
considering current observations and owing to expectation of
vertical mixing of greater momentum from aloft (CRP VAD wind
profile data) and increasing thermal gradient during the afternoon
which will also contribute to SCA over the SRN bays/nearshore
waters. Anticipate conditions consistent with a high risk for rip
currents Today.

LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...Southwest flow
at H5 continues with broad ridging sneaking in from the south early
in the extended. Capping remains over the region with H85
temperatures varying between 18C-20C which should limit convective
activity. But with pwats of 1.4-1.7 inches in place and embedded
impulses in the SW flow aloft, isolated showers and thunderstorms
remain possible, especially across the western Brush Country through
Monday night. During this time, H5 Low over southern California will
begin to move into the Desert Southwest, reaching the Four Corners
region Tuesday. This Low becomes absorbed in the main upper trough,
elongating the trough into Texas. The associated weak surface
frontal boundary should add more focus heading into the latter half
of the work week, with increased rain chances Wednesday and
Thursday, with best chances Thursday as the boundary sinks into S
TX. Models then dry things out by Friday. Overall, temperatures
remain persistent, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the
Coastal Plains, to mid 90s across the Brush Country, with the
exception of mid 80s area-wide Friday behind the frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  89  77  88  77  /  10  20  10  20  20
Victoria          76  89  74  87  74  /  10  20  10  20  20
Laredo            77  95  76  95  76  /  20  20  20  20  30
Alice             76  92  75  91  74  /  10  20  20  30  30
Rockport          79  87  79  86  79  /  10  20  10  20  20
Cotulla           75  92  74  93  75  /  20  20  20  30  30
Kingsville        77  91  76  91  76  /  10  20  10  20  20
Navy Corpus       79  86  79  86  79  /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Aransas...Calhoun...Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     OConnor.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.