Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 011948
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DRIER AIR NOSING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...SO FAR OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH TEXAS...BUT WILL PUSH INTO THE REST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SHOULD SEE PWATS NEARING ONE INCH BY THE DAYTIME ON
SUNDAY. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DRIER AIR...EXPECT MIN TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT TO DROP A BIT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S AREA WIDE. THE DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR THE LEVELS FROM TODAY...AND THE
PAST FEW DAYS. SEE NO REASON THAT MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WEST
WOULDNT HIT 100 DEGREES. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE DIFFERS BY SEVERAL
DEGREES FOR REASONS NOT CLEAR TO ME...WITH THE GFS BEING WARMER.
NOT GOING QUITE AS HIGH AS GFS IN A FEW LOCATIONS...BUT DEFINITELY
LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE AVERAGE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN SUNDAY NIGHT...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IS PROGGED TO DRIFT WESTWARD...AND COULD PUSH PRECIP
BACK INTO THE MARINE ZONES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE ADDED A 20 POP IN
MARINE AREAS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE MID/UPR LVL RIDGE CONTRACTING A BIT OVER THE SW CONUS ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDING IN THE NW GULF TO SURGE
INTO THE COASTAL BEND. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO 2.2` WHICH IS NOT
QUITE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS INTRODUCED 20% POPS FOR THE COASTAL BEND REGION MONDAY. ATMOS
THEN DRIES OUT AGAIN THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD.
TEMPS SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER MONDAY/TUESDAY DUE TO
INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. MAX HEAT INDICIES OF 105 TO 109 CAN
BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
HAZARDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  99  77  96  79  /  10  10  10  20  10
VICTORIA          72 100  75  97  77  /  10  10  10  20  10
LAREDO            76 103  79 103  79  /  10  10  10  10   0
ALICE             73 100  76  98  76  /  10  10  10  20  10
ROCKPORT          76  97  78  90  81  /  10  10  10  20  10
COTULLA           75 102  76 101  78  /  10  10  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        73 100  77  96  78  /  10  10  10  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       76  97  79  89  81  /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM



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