Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 211206 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
606 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See .AVIATION discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Could have some brief IFR or MVFR conditions at KALI and/or KVCT
(mainly at KALI), but that should lift by 15Z. Light southerly
winds today with a lot of cirrus moving into the area. Much of
this cirrus should move out of are by early evening, then the
front comes down overnight. Could have a few showers develop along
boundary as it moves through around 07Z at KVCT and KLRD and
around 09Z at KCRP and KALI. Could have a few showers near and
along the boundary and possibly some MVFR CIGS, but for now will
just go with MVFR conditions at all but KVCT and VCSH at KALI and
KCRP AOA fropa. Gusty north winds behind the front.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Water vapor imagery showing some mid and high cloud cover associated
with a fairly potent upper level jet. The gulf waters will primarily
be in the favorable location for some convection today, and then
again tonight, but tonight some inland areas will have a chance for
some rain as the front combines with another piece of jet dynamics.
However, most of the rainfall will reside offshore and over the
southeastern portions of our CWA. Also, could have some thunder
tonight mainly offshore with little to no cap and plenty of
diffluence. For now, will go no higher than 50 POPs (again mainly
offshore) tonight, then with decreasing rain chances during the day
on Wednesday as the drier air moves in and the upper jet dynamics
shift more east. One warm day today (hopefully some lower 80s) if we
do get some clearing from the mid/high clouds which is expected to
happen. Front begins to come down overnight and brings the cooler
air. Overall the Supreblend does not look too bad for temperatures
but did go just a bit below that for Wednesday (highs and lows) due
to the expected cold air advection with the boundary.

MARINE (Today through Wednesday)...

More marine issues to talk about today. First thing to consider is
whether to put out a Small Craft Advisory for late tonight/Wednesday
morning for the frontal passage. After discussing this with
surrounding offices, am going to go with a SCA for my marine areas
after midnight, with the northern areas starting 06Z and the
southern areas 09Z. Will continue to have SCA through 18Z for all
areas, then through 21Z for the gulf waters. This will have to be
adjusted somewhat, but feel better having something out with
conditions developing around midnight. Do have wind gusts 35 to 40
knots for a couple of hours over the offshore waters Wednesday
morning but do not want to go with gale conditions (not even a watch
at this time, as per coordination with other offices) as there is
some uncertainty on this verifying the "frequent" occurrence. Best
shot for showers will be along front and with upper jet dynamics
tonight into Wednesday, and did include thunder for tonight and
Wednesday morning. Chance for showers today mainly offshore.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

Dry with more seasonable temperatures expected the latter half of
the work week and into the weekend. This is due to upper level high
pressure system slowly drifting east across the western U.S. and
northern Mexico through the extended. Weakening northerly winds
Thursday continue to decrease becoming light and shifting to the
east then southeast by Friday. This will lead to slightly warmer
temperatures Friday and Saturday. Another weak cold
front/reinforcing sfc high pressure is progged to move into the CWA
Sat night or Sunday leading to a light east to northeast flow.
However, this will be short lived as light to moderate onshore flow
returns by Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    82  58  70  47  71  /  10  40  10   0   0
Victoria          79  54  67  41  69  /  10  20  10   0   0
Laredo            81  55  68  47  73  /   0   0  10   0   0
Alice             83  55  70  44  72  /  10  30  10   0   0
Rockport          79  59  69  49  68  /  10  30  10   0   0
Cotulla           81  51  69  42  71  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        84  57  70  45  73  /  10  40  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       80  62  70  52  70  /  10  40  20   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday
     For the following zones: Coastal waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Port
     Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Wednesday For the
     following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Wednesday For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday
     For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Port
     Aransas to Port O`Connor.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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