Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 012018
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...GFS/NAM DETERMINISTIC
CONTINUE TO PROG A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS NW-SE
ACRS THE SWRN 1/3 OF THE CONUS. THESE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT
TO WHETHER WEAK DISTURBANCES/SHORTWAVES WL ENTER THE CWA DRG THE
PERIOD AND DIFFER AS TO WHETHER SUBSIDENCE WL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
NIGHT. WL SIMPLY FOCUS ON SFC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MSTR CONVERGENCE AND HIGH/ABOVE
AVERAGE PWAT MAGNITUDES. ISOLD CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
EXTREME NRN CWA ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE E-W ALONG/NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WL MOVE SLOWLY
SWD SATURDAY AND THUS EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT
OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA SATURDAY...CONSISTENT WITH SREF QPF
PROBABILITY PATTERN DRG THE PERIOD. NAM SOUNDING MORE CONDUCIVE TO
LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL SAT OVER THE CNTRL/SRN CWA. OWING TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...EXPECT LGT WIND DRG THE PERIOD. EXPECT
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SATURDAY TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS
UPPER HIGH AND DEEP LOW BRING A NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW TOWARD SOUTH
TEXAS. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES ON SUNDAY...BUT THEN START TO
RANGE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES BY MONDAY (THAT IS BORDERLINE
MOISTURE) AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY THE CAP
BECOMES STRONGER AND ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STAYS ABOUT THE SAME...WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND WITH STRONGER CAP...FEEL IT BEST TO LEAVE RAIN
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS IS STILL SHOWING
A TUTT LOW MOVING INTO MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY (WELL SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE)...DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES FARTHER WEST INLAND. 00Z
ECMWF HAD THIS FEATURE...AND MOVED IT INLAND BUT NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE RIO GRANDE. 12Z ECMWF NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE NOW. THUS...AM
GOING TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THURSDAY AND DITTO ON FRIDAY. AM
NOT SAYING THAT RAIN IS OUT OF THE QUESTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT FEEL ANY CONVECTION WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A
MENTION AND INCLUDE A 20 POP IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL...TEMPERATURE
FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE AND DID MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES BUT
OVERALL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP BY MID WEEK (HIGHS AND LOWS).
BY THURSDAY HEAT INDICES AOA 105F BUT AOB 110F WILL BE BACK OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. ON THE MARINE
SIDE...SHOULD SEE WINDS BELOW SCA (AND SCEC) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    76  93  75  95  74  /  30  30  10  20  20
VICTORIA          74  93  75  95  73  /  30  30  10  20  10
LAREDO            79  96  78  99  80  /  30  30  20  10  10
ALICE             75  95  74  98  73  /  30  30  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  88  78  91  78  /  30  30  10  20  20
COTULLA           76  94  75  98  76  /  30  30  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        76  94  75  97  74  /  30  30  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  87  78  91  78  /  30  30  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM



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