Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 290054 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
754 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...Very unstable airmass remains over the Brush Country
with MLCAPE values between 4000-5000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is
around 35 knots over this region. Storms continue to increase in
coverage over Webb County into Mexico. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
has been issued for the Brush Country extending eastward to
Highway 281. The Watch is in effect until 3 AM. Modified the
weather grids to show severe storm potential over western
counties.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 651 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...Most of the strong convection has remained along the
frontal boundary from south of Del Rio to north of Austin. But
storms have formed in the past hour ahead of the front northwest
and southwest of Cotulla. Expect frontal boundary will slowly push
southward toward the region later tonight. Prefer the 12Z NAM and
latest Texas Tech WRF for timing of convection moving into the
Brush Country during the evening hours and reaching the coastal
sites during the overnight hours. Before storms arrive, MVFR
ceilings over the Coastal Bend will move inland this evening and
cover all of the coastal plains by 02Z. Will show possibility of
IFR vsbys with storms later this evening into the overnight hours
with better chance for strong to severe storms affecting the
western Brush Country/LRD area this evening. Confidence in the
forecast decreases for Monday. All will depend on where frontal
boundary/outflow boundary from overnight convection winds up
stalling. Some of the models show the boundary stalling along the
coast while other models show the boundary pushing through the
area. This would likely lead to less of a chance for convection
for Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  83  72  85  74  /  60  80  40  40  20
Victoria          74  80  70  86  72  /  70  80  30  40  20
Laredo            74  84  71  87  72  /  80  80  20  40  20
Alice             75  84  69  87  72  /  70  80  30  40  20
Rockport          77  82  74  84  75  /  60  80  40  40  20
Cotulla           73  84  69  87  72  /  80  60  20  30  20
Kingsville        77  85  70  86  73  /  60  80  40  40  20
Navy Corpus       78  81  74  84  76  /  60  80  40  40  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM



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