Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 071140 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
540 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE AND TIME-HEIGHTS SHOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS THAT
WILL COME IN FROM TIME TO TIME LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO AM
GOING SCT250 PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BY END OF TERMINAL FORECAST
(AND THAT IS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER). HIGH MOVES EAST
TODAY AND ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES BUT WINDS AWAY FROM KCRP SHOULD BE
LT 11 KNOTS (HIGHER/GUSTY AT KCRP OR PROXIMATE TO GULF). FRONT
COMES DOWN NEAR END OF TERMINAL FORECAST (AFTER 06Z BUT BFR
12Z)...SO HAVE PUT TIMING OF FRONT ABT 08Z KVCT...09Z KLRD AND
KALI...THEN 10Z KCRP. NO LOW NOTABLE LOW CLOUDS WITH FRONT...AND
WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED 25-THOUSAND. WINDS MAY BE GUSTIER WITH
FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THAT BUT
DID GO WITH WINDS NEAR OR ABOVE 11KTS WITH WIND SHIFT. COULD ALSO
HAVE SOME WIND SHEAR...BUT TOO EARLY FOR THAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTH-SOUTH FLOW ALOFT AND
ALLOWING ANOTHER FRONT TO COME DOWN MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION
NOT EXPECTED AS ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE NO TIME TO GET ANY NOTABLE
MOISTURE BACK. MAIN ISSUE WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WINDS AND WHETHER
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SITUATION ON
MONDAY (SEE DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER BELOW).

SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST TODAY...ALLOWING FOR WEAK RETURN OF
MOISTURE...AGAIN NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT. NICE
DAY IN STORE...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. AM
GOING TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
GIVEN THE FACT THAT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY (850 MB WEST WINDS) AND SOME LOCATIONS SAW
TEMPERATURES AOA 70 DEGREES YESTERDAY. FRONT COMES DOWN BY 12Z
MONDAY (GETS TO CLOSE TO THE COAST)...SO WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S MOST AREAS...AND MAYBE SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CWFA. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WARMER VALUES AGAIN ON MONDAY
GIVEN 2 METER AND 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY.

FIRE WEATHER (MONDAY)...FIRE WEATHER PROCEDURE SHOWS CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY FOR A SHORT TIME OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND A BIT LONGER OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA. WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND GOLIAD/VICTORIA AREA BASED ON THIS. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY. ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PROGGED TO END BY 4 OR 5 PM MONDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...BRIEF ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES TODAY
BEFORE NEXT FRONT COMES DOWN ON MONDAY. WILL LIKELY HAVE BRIEF SCA
CONDITIONS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS BEHIND FRONT...WITH A
LONGER SCA LIKELY OFFSHORE. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH FROPA...WITH
WIND GUSTS OFFSHORE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. OBVIOUSLY...TOO EARLY
FOR ISSUING SCA TODAY FOR A SHORT TERM SCA (AND BORDERLINE) ON
MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...FAIRLY QUIET WX
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. COOL AND SUNNY TUE IN THE WAKE OF
MON`S COLD FRONT...THEN MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TO S TX. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE WEST BY THU AND FRI. CLOUDS/LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS BY SAT. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY MORNING FOG BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT INCREASING CLOUDS
SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE. THE GFS BRINGS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO THE CWA BY FRI/SAT FOR PRECIP...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF PROG A RIDGE TO BE ALOFT AND AM EXPECTING MAINLY JUST AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS RATHER THAN PRECIP. WENT WITH 5-10 POPS FOR FRI
AND DID KEEP A 20 POP OVER THE WATER FOR SAT WHERE THE MODELS PROG
DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    73  45  68  41  68  /   0   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          69  39  64  35  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            75  46  70  41  72  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             75  42  69  39  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          70  47  64  46  65  /   0   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           73  40  67  37  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        73  43  68  40  70  /   0   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       71  49  66  46  65  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...
     KLEBERG...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.