Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 010448
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1048 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NEXT RESULT WL BE
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS ALI...CRP AND VCT. ALSO...A THICK STRATUS DECK WITH
AREAS OF FOG WL PERSIST. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT
AND REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE IFR RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY
BEFORE LOWERING DOWN AGAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...00Z CRP SOUNDING INDICATED SATURATED WARM AIR ADVECTION
LAYER ABOVE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS UP TO 10 KFT. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 290-300K LAYER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN CHANCES DECREASING TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. STILL TRICKY ON
WHERE COASTAL TROUGH...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE MATAGORDA
BAY AREA...WILL MOVE TONIGHT IF AT ALL. STILL PREFER 18Z NAM/15Z SREF
WITH REGARDS TO COLD AIR HOLDING THIS EVENING AND PUSHING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

MARINE...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS BUOYS INDICATED
ELEVATED SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FEET REMAIN. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WL PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE TAF FCST PD FOR SOUTH TEXAS. WARM MOIST AIR WL CONTINUE TO
OVERRUN SHALLOW COOL AIR THROUGH SUNDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE FOR ALI...CRP AND VCT AND PRODUCING/MAINTAINING A THICK
STRATUS DECK. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT AND
REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING GIVEN THIS SETUP. A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LRD AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    49  62  55  74  63  /  60  20  10  10  10
VICTORIA          46  62  52  72  62  /  70  30  20  20  20
LAREDO            41  62  53  77  64  /  20  10  10  10  10
ALICE             45  61  54  75  63  /  40  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          53  63  56  70  63  /  70  20  10  20  10
COTULLA           41  59  49  73  61  /  20  10  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        47  62  55  75  64  /  60  20  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       52  63  57  70  63  /  60  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

MB/80...AVIATION




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