Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 021147 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
647 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAF/

CONCERNS...SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
WIND SHIFT AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IS CAUSING BRIEF
BKN014-018 CIGS BUT THE STRATUS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY FEW-SCT THIS
MORNING AT THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL ACCUS IS CAUSING
SCT-BKN SKIES AROUND 120 KFT. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 14-20 KTS BY MIDDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT. THE BEST TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE METROPLEX IS
BETWEEN 21/22Z - 23/00Z FROM WEST TO EAST. WACO IS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22-00Z. THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-15 KTS.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY AND INCREASE AROUND
MIDDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.

82/JLD

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO
RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY REACHING THE REGION...AS AIRCRAFT DATA
INDICATES LIFTING AND DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE. WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS ALOFT...ACROSS THE NW ZONES
AND OKLAHOMA...THIS LIFT IS ALLOWING ELEVATED PARCELS TO REACH THEIR
LFC AND CONVECT. THIS SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OR STORMS.

THE COLD FRONT IS NOW ENTERING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE NW ZONES BY MIDDAY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS AN HOUR OR TWO
FASTER WITH THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST THINKING OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL ENSURE A WARM MORNING AND
ONCE THE LOW STRATUS SCATTERS OUT BY MIDDAY...SUNSHINE WILL BOOST
TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE REGION.  THESE HOT TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DYNAMIC COOLING
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 850MB WILL CAP OFF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY IN THE
DAY...THE COMBINATION OF DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
ALL WORK TO ERODE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER THE AREA.

SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER
THE NW ZONES AROUND 1 PM AS THE CAP BEGINS TO BREAK. CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT MARCHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES. WE
EXPECT FROPA AROUND 3 PM NEAR GAINESVILLE...5 PM NEAR DFW...AND 7PM
NEAR WACO.  WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES THE I-35 CORRIDOR A SQUALL LINE
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...WHICH MEANS THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW GAPS
IN THE LINE AT THIS TIME. A FULLY DEVELOPED AND MATURE SQUALL LINE
WILL EXIST AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS HIGHEST IN
THIS REGION. THE CAP WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...AND ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED
THERE. WHERE CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED...SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE
IS FAVORED...WHICH MEANS THERE IS AN ENHANCED LARGE HAIL THREAT IN
ADDITION TO A WIND THREAT. WHILE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES DO NOT
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION...SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS
CAN STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE RIGHT MESOSCALE
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS CANNOT BE FORECAST RELIABLY AT THIS TIME RANGE.

THE FRONT AND LINE OF STORMS WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BUT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT
REALLY INCREASE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE SURGE
ARRIVES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY TOP OUT NEAR 80
IN THE NORTH AND THE MID 80S SOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN
RIGHT OVER THE CWA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL GO CALM. WITH
DEWPOINTS BY THIS TIME IN THE 30S AND 40S...LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
SHOULD REACH THE 40S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH LOW 50S
FOR THE DFW AREA AND THE SOUTHEAST CWA.  SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 80...BUT WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL WILL
OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA. THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS ENERGY
AND THEREFORE SHOW DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S.  WILL KEEP FORECAST THE DRY BUT AS A
NOD TO THE ECMWF POTENTIAL WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS DOWNWARD INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S FOR NEXT WEEK INSTEAD OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY BOLD
FORECAST OF LOWER 90S.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  93  59  82  50  80 /  70  20   0   0   0
WACO, TX              95  58  84  49  81 /  50  40   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             91  57  78  45  76 /  80  60   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            92  54  81  43  80 /  60  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          92  56  81  43  78 /  80  30   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            93  60  82  51  80 /  70  30   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           94  59  82  48  79 /  70  50   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         94  61  83  49  79 /  60  60   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            95  60  85  50  81 /  30  50   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     92  54  82  44  81 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

82/92




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