Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 042038
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
338 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
IT IS A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE GOOD
NEWS IS THE NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES CLOSER TO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL NOT VARY MUCH WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
SUNDAY AND THEN EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THE
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN IN WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH ALSO CONTINUES MOVING EAST. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE DRYLINE VERY NEAR OUR WESTERN CWA
BORDER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE
DRYLINE. THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A CAP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MAY PREVENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...A FEW SOUNDINGS NEAR THE
DRYLINE INDICATE THE CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE AND
THE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE AND THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AS SUNDAY APPROACHES TO REFINE
FINER DETAILS AND THE STORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALL OF THE MODELS STILL HAVE THE
DRYLINE WEST OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING BUT THEN MOVING EAST DURING
THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNCAPPED AND VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH CAPE VALUES 3000-4000 J/KG ON THE GFS. SHEAR VALUES
ALSO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH 40-50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR
AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION. THE DRYLINE WOULD
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT SCATTERED STORMS MAY
ALSO DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AS THE BEST LIFT APPROACHES. AS WITH SUNDAY...THERE IS STILL A LOT
OF DETAILS TO REFINE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT`S POSSIBLE
CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION IS ONGOING MONDAY MORNING.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF STALL THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THEN THE
BEST LIFT WILL BE WELL DISPLACED TO OUR EAST WITH HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE REGION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...IT WOULD BE
TOUGH TO GENERATE CONVECTION BUT WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS PART OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

JLDUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 636 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/
/12 UTC TAF CYCLE/

CONCERNS...VFR WITH NORTH FLOW.

FOR THE METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES...EXCELLENT FLYING CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW WEST WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY. A FEW WIND GUSTS
UP TO NEAR 20 KT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW LEVEL MIXING. WINDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LAYER DECOUPLES.
OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING...NO
MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. A RETURN TO SOUTH
FLOW APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    57  82  58  85  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO                52  81  52  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS               51  77  53  81  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON              52  81  52  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY            52  80  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS              56  82  59  85  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL             55  81  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA           55  81  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE              53  82  55  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS       52  83  54  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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