Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 312022
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
322 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MLCAPE VALUES HAVE SOARED TO AROUND 1500J/KG IN MANY AREAS SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. DESPITE THIS INSTABILITY BEING UNCAPPED...
THE CU FIELD APPEARS TO BE WAITING FOR A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED IN AREAS NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BEFORE MIDDAY...BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED SOUTH OF THE CWA. IN ADDITION...THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN
INSUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FARTHER NORTH. AS
IS TYPICAL IN AUGUST...INITIATION COULD BEGIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS AS LATE AS 6 PM CDT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW-END
POPS INTO THE MID-EVENING WHERE THE RICHEST MOISTURE RESIDES
BENEATH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING. WITH WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED TIME
BETWEEN POTENTIAL INITIATION AND SUNSET...ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER...DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS.

WITHOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. IN THE MEANTIME...A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL MEAN NON-ZERO THOUGH NEGLIGIBLE RAIN
CHANCES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ACTIVITY MAY INTERACT WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH WE WILL MAINTAIN 10 POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY)...EXPECT
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TAKING HOLD...AND WILL CARRY NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE WORDED FORECAST. CONSENSUS AMONG EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS FOR RIDGING TO PERSIST NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE SUMMER
HEAT IN PLACE.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1248 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS: VFR WITH PREVAILING SSE FLOW BELOW 10 KTS AT ALL
AIRPORTS...THOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND MVFR CIGS
MAY AFFECT WACO.

A MID-LVL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN ANCHORED FROM THE OZARKS TO S
TX. DEFORMATION ON THE NW SIDE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LIFT
OF A MORE MOIST AIRMASS FROM WACO AND POINTS SE OF THE AIRPORT.
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR VCSH/VCTS
MENTION IN THE WACO TAF TODAY...BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET. MVFR
CIGS WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX BY 12Z
TUESDAY. WACO WILL BE ON THE NORTHERNMOST FRINGE OF MVFR CIGS
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z TUESDAY. A TEMPO GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  95  74  94  75 /  10   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  94  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             70  93  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            73  95  72  94  73 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          72  94  71  93  72 /  10   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  94  75  94  76 /  10   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           72  93  72  94  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  93  72  94  72 /  10  20  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            71  93  71  93  71 /  10  20  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  95  71  94  72 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/25


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