Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 010912
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN BAND IS MOVING EAST...WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND NORTHEAST OF THE
METROPLEX. RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH SMALL POCKETS OF
MODERATE RAIN. THERE HAS BEEN NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AT ALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTH DURING THE MORNING...RAIN SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
WITH ACTIVITY ENDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...MOST OF THE AREA NORTH
OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO PALESTINE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON DESPITE THE
SUN...DUE TO COLD ADVECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST FROM MEXICO...IT WILL COME IN PHASE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND WE HAVE LOW POPS TO COVER THAT
EVENT. THE LOW ITSELF WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN TX...WHERE HEAVIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED. RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL TX AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS COLD FRONT...AND WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THAT MAY PROVIDE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF QPF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AS RIDGING BUILDS IN OFFSHORE BAJA CALIF...NORTH TX WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. NEXT WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE
QUITE PLEASANT WITH NO RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1120 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/
ANOTHER BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
METROPLEX THROUGH 8Z AND THEN RAIN POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. WILL
CARRY JUST A MENTION OF VCSH FROM 8-12Z. GENERALLY IFR CIGS HAVE
SETTLED IN OVER THE TAF SITES NOW AND WHILE LIFR MAY BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY AT WACO. VEERING
WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP KEEP VSBY ABOVE IFR
AND ALSO MAY CAUSE CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR AROUND SUNRISE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. FRONT IS EXPECTED IN METROPLEX AROUND 15Z WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF TAF SITES. MVFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS N/NW WINDS INCREASE TO 20G30KT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  58  30  44  35  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
WACO, TX              63  32  47  34  57 /  20   5   0   0  10
PARIS, TX             57  27  42  30  55 /  60   5   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            56  28  44  32  58 /  20   5   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          56  28  43  31  56 /  30   5   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            58  30  44  35  58 /  30   5   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           62  29  44  32  56 /  40   5   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         63  31  45  34  56 /  40   5   0   0   5
TEMPLE, TX            63  33  48  35  56 /  20   5   0   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     53  28  46  33  61 /  10   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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