Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 281157
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
657 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and south winds will prevail through the TAF
period, but the the low potential for scattered thunderstorms
today will make for a challenging forecast once again.

North and Central Texas remain centered underneath a weakness
aloft with the remnants of a mid-level disturbance positioned over
the Arklatex region. This pattern continues to yield scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity early this morning which will
persist throughout the day. The main forecast concern is whether
or not activity will be able to develop far enough north and west
to impact the DFW Metroplex TAF sites or if thunderstorm activity
will remain primarily to the south and east. For now, most high-
res guidance is not very bullish on developing convection near the
I-20 corridor and has tended to favor an area to the southeast
across Central Texas. Have cautiously decided to remove the
mention of VCTS for the Metroplex TAF sites but maintain the
mention at Waco where conditions will be slightly more favorable
for convection this afternoon. Otherwise, have carried VCSH
through a majority of the day with isolated showers expected to
begin developing by mid-morning.

Another forecast concern is the low potential for convection
again on Friday morning as a complex of storms in the Central
Plains dives southward, possibly impinging on North Texas. For
now, this potential is too low to include in the TAFs and it is
more likely that this activity would miss the DFW Metroplex to the
east, should it survive long enough to advance into Texas to begin
with. However, this potential will need to be monitored in
subsequent TAFs.

-Stalley

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

It looks like North and Central Texas will have one more day of
scattered showers and thunderstorms to contend with before upper
ridging builds back into the area effectively ending rain chances
and allowing temperatures to warm back to or slightly above 100
degrees into next week.

Water vapor imagery shows the main shortwave trough (discussed
about yesterday over Louisiana) has been pulled northeast and is
now embedded within a larger broad trough over the eastern U.S. In
its wake...a weakness in upper heights still persists between the
stronger ridge to the west and ridging centered off the east coast
of Florida. This weakness aloft will encounter strengthening
northerly flow by midday around the periphery of the western
ridge. This should in turn induce some cyclonic vorticity
advection and weak forcing for ascent by early afternoon across
the eastern half of the CWA into the Arklatex. All of this occurs
within a zone of low to mid level confluence centered right across
the middle of our CWA. Very high precipitable water values in
excess of 2 inches will persist in this area through the
afternoon...so scattered showers and thunderstorms appear likely
to occur again today. Current thinking is that the best coverage
will be within this band of converging 850-700mb flow just south
of the Metroplex eastward along the I-20 corridor into East Texas.
PoPs will generally be 30-40% in this area with lower coverage
farther north and west. Similar to the last few days...the
strongest storms will still be capable of marginally severe
downburst winds. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern
with the slow moving thunderstorms. A little more than normal
cloud cover and scattered outflows will keep temperatures slightly
cooler than normal in most locations today...but still warm and
muggy.

By tonight...we turn our focus farther north as one of several
weak disturbances moves through the Central Plains. A complex of
thunderstorms should be ongoing across parts of Kansas and
Oklahoma. This activity will slide southeast and could clip our
northern/northeast counties very late tonight into Friday morning.
Otherwise...ridging starts to nudge back to the east by late
Friday. Most areas should stay precipitation free...although our
far eastern areas will still be far enough removed from any large
scale subsidence to possibly see a storm or two.

Ridging continues to build back into the area Saturday and Sunday.
The only areas that may see any precipitation would be our far
northeast where remnant thunderstorm activity from complexes to
the north could clip the region. Drier air aloft will also
accompany the ridging further helping to minimize rain chances.
The forecast will remain precip free Sunday into next week with
highs climbing back to near 100 degrees each afternoon.

Dunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  77  97  78  97 /  30  10  10  10  10
Waco                96  76  98  77  98 /  30  10  10   5   5
Paris               91  72  94  73  95 /  30  20  20  20  20
Denton              95  74  96  74  97 /  20  10  10  10  10
McKinney            95  75  95  75  96 /  30  10  20  10  10
Dallas              95  77  97  79  98 /  30  10  10  10  10
Terrell             92  75  95  76  97 /  30  10  20  10  10
Corsicana           92  76  96  77  97 /  40  10  10   5  10
Temple              96  75  97  76  98 /  30  10  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       97  73  97  74  99 /  30  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

26/91



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