Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 101201 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
601 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR cigs and increasing wind speeds.

Southeast to south winds are expected to prevail through the TAF
period in response to a deepening surface low in the Colorado
Plains. Wind speeds will increase this afternoon to 12-15 kts. The
low level jet will rapidly increase to 45-55 kts this evening and
tonight. The results of this will be the addition of wind gusts
of 15-20 kts overnight, and then stronger sustained winds of
15-20 kts on Sunday with gusts up near 30 kts. The winds on Sunday
afternoon will trend more to the southwest which will likely cause
some crosswind issues on diagonal runways.

Mid and low level moisture will continue to increase across the
region under the influence of southerly flow. SCT to BKN clouds
with bases between 4-6 kft will occur this morning. However, MVFR
cigs are already being reported in parts of the Hill Country and
Concho Valley. These cigs are expected to spread north into KACT
around midday but their extent farther north is uncertain at this
time. Most model guidance suggests the clouds will encounter some
mixing throughout the day and may remain SCT around the Metroplex
area until this evening. Will have to monitor trends this
afternoon but will prevail BKN025 at KACT all afternoon with
SCT028 at the Metroplex airports and a TEMPO for BKN028 from
17-19Z. If the cloud deck is more extensive, BKN MVFR cigs may
also prevail at the Metroplex airports by mid or late afternoon.
As the low level moisture really surges north and isentropic lift
increases this evening, MVFR cigs will prevail at all the TAF
sites most of the evening and through Sunday morning at least.
The strong winds and a local climatological study indicate the
potential for IFR is low but any drizzle overnight could briefly
cause IFR conditions at any of the airports.

JLDunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016/
With high pressure continuing to depart to our east, southerly and
southeasterly low-level flow has returned to the region. The
atmosphere`s visual demarcation of the return flow and associated
northward moisture transport is provided in the form of low
clouds streaming through the Hill Country early this morning. This
cloud cover will muck up our skies today, but we may see some
thinning of the cloud deck later today. Temperatures will respond
as well by increasing today into the upper 40s and 50s as a bit of
a southerly breeze kicks up this afternoon.

Impressive warm advection will commence tonight ahead of a
developing area of low pressure across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. Additional cloud cover will subsequently stream
into the region, carried northward on a potent low-level jet. As
the lower-levels rapidly moisten to near saturation, areas of very
light precipitation or drizzle are expected to develop, primarily
near and east of the I-35 corridor overnight Saturday. Chances for
measurable precipitation do not appear overly impressive, so we`ll
simply continue to indicate low (20-30%) PoPs during the overnight
period. Additionally, the threat for widespread dense fog appears
low at this time given the strength of the flow (40 kt+) just off
the surface.

On Sunday, temperatures will rocket into the upper 60s and 70s.
CIPS analog guidance and statistical MOS products even suggests
the potential for some middle 70s readings out west--certainly an
impressive warmup considering we`ve been in the 20s and 30s the
past few days! In addition, winds may briefly approach wind
advisory criteria along and east of I-35/35W as the aforementioned
very strong winds aloft begin to mix down to the surface. A cold
front will sweep through the region Sunday night and into Monday,
ushering in drier air and ending any low precipitation chances.

A nice and seasonable start to the workweek is in store, with
temperatures in the 50s and 60s, although some cloud cover may
linger around behind the front.

On Wednesday, yet another cold front should be approaching North
and Central Texas. It`s becoming more evident that the truly
Continental Polar airmass will stay held up across the Central and
Northern Great Plains, a symptom of the continuing fast zonal flow
aloft. As a result, we`ve started nudging temperatures up just a
bit on Wednesday and Thursday. That said, colder air should still
manage to trickle into our region on Thursday with breezy
northerly winds. In addition, there may be a potential for some
very light showers or drizzle with the frontal passage on
Wednesday into Wednesday night. For now, I`ve just maintained some
silent 10% PoPs during this time frame. At this point, it appears
cold air will lag sufficiently behind any potential light precip
to significantly limit the potential for wintry weather.

On Friday, stout warm advection will ensue once again as southerly
winds return, bringing moderating temperatures and another low
potential for showers across our eastern counties. The pertinent
details for the Friday/Saturday period, however, remain in
considerable doubt as significant timing differences exist among
the global models regarding the potential intrusion of yet another
arctic front.

Carlaw

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    51  49  73  45  62 /   0  20  10   0   0
Waco                51  51  71  48  65 /   5  20  10   5   0
Paris               46  42  67  45  58 /   0  20  30  10   5
Denton              50  47  72  40  60 /   0  10  10   0   0
McKinney            49  46  71  43  59 /   0  20  10   0   0
Dallas              52  50  73  46  62 /   0  20  10   0   0
Terrell             50  47  70  47  61 /   5  20  20   5   0
Corsicana           51  49  71  51  64 /   5  20  20   5   5
Temple              51  49  70  49  66 /   5  20  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       53  47  73  39  61 /   0  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/90



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