Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 042012
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE HAVE REMAINED MAINLY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IF AT ALL.

THE MORE PRESSING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MID AND UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PARK ITSELF
OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS CREEPING A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 105 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...AND A HEAT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO TO
WAXAHACHIE TO EMORY BEGINNING 18Z WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
BE EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SPECIFICS BEING BETTER KNOWN BY THE
ISSUANCE OF TOMORROW/S AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 102 TO 105 BECOMING COMMON ALONG WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES 105-109.

EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE
WITH THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RESIDING ALONG WITH IT. SOME RELIEF
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT EASES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WE WILL
INCLUDE SOME 20 POPS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
NOT MUCH ELSE SHOWING UP IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1231 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT BUT FEW TO SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME CU ON
WEDNESDAY.

A SOUTH WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 KNOTS ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER DAYTIME GUSTS.

ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE METROPLEX TAF SITES.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80 100  81 102  82 /   5   5   0   5   0
WACO, TX              78 100  78 101  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             77 100  78 101  79 /  10  10  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            79 100  79 102  80 /   5   5   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          78 100  80 101  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            82 100  82 102  83 /   5   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           78  99  78 101  79 /   5   5   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         78 100  78 101  78 /   5   5   0   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            76 100  76 101  76 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76 102  77 101  78 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-123-129>134.


&&

$$


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