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000
FXUS64 KFWD 191056
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 10 KTS AROUND
15Z /10 AM/. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER BEING IN THE FORM OF
CIRRUS. SOME STRATUS MAY SURGE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...AND WE HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND INCLUDED A LINE FOR THE EXTENDED DFW TAF TO INCLUDE
A CLOUD DECK AT 2500 FT AT 7 AM /13Z SUNDAY/. RAIN CHANCES PRIOR
TO 18Z SUNDAY STILL APPEAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE DFW EXTENDED
TAF. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20/18Z AS
A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS NEAR EL PASO AT 0730Z /230 AM CDT/. LIGHTNING WAS
DETECTED OVER WEST TEXAS SOUTH OF CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WEST TEXAS TODAY.

THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY AND THEN SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF
NORTH TEXAS...AND CHANCES WILL SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS OKLAHOMA. STRONG LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NEW MEXICO. WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY AND CHANCES WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  61  78  65  80 /   5  10  30  30  40
WACO, TX              78  60  78  61  81 /   5  10  30  20  30
PARIS, TX             77  57  78  61  77 /   5   5  20  20  50
DENTON, TX            79  59  78  63  79 /   5  10  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          78  57  78  64  78 /   5  10  30  30  40
DALLAS, TX            79  62  78  65  79 /   5  10  30  30  40
TERRELL, TX           78  58  78  62  79 /   5   5  20  20  40
CORSICANA, TX         78  59  79  61  79 /   5   5  20  20  30
TEMPLE, TX            78  58  76  59  84 /   5  10  20  20  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     78  58  78  61  82 /   5  20  40  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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