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000
FXUS64 KFWD 260434
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. THE
ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE A FEW DAYTIME CU.

79

&&

.UPDATE...
A QUIET NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
A WARMER NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS
MORNINGS VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST.

82/JLD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EAST PART OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN...WEST OF SASKATOON...MOVES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER BY
MONDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE ADDED SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR FOR THE 06-12Z MONDAY PERIOD. THE
12Z RUN OF THE GFS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER BY 12Z MONDAY TO SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY
18Z...BUT THEN STALLS IT. THE ECMWF THEN INDICATES THAT THE FRONT
WILL SINK SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE 20
PERCENT POPS ACROSS ALL BUT THE EXTREME SOUTH MONDAY...AND A 20
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC...THE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL DEEPEN. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
HIGHS POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE
EASTERN 2/3S FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURE WISE...IT WILL BE A HOT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
90S TO 102 DEGREES. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK.
EXACTLY HOW MUCH COOLER ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY MAY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL HIGHS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77 101  80 101  79 /   0   0   0   5  20
WACO, TX              75  99  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   5  10
PARIS, TX             72  96  75  97  75 /   0   0   0   5  30
DENTON, TX            74  99  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   5  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  98  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   5  20
DALLAS, TX            78 100  80 100  80 /   0   0   0   5  20
TERRELL, TX           74  99  76 103  77 /   0   0   0   5  20
CORSICANA, TX         74  98  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  98  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75 100  74  99  74 /   0   0   0   5  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

79/82