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000
FXUS64 KFWD 092340 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

SOME DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTH TEXAS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. UNTIL THEN...WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...IT HAS BEEN
PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A BRIEF RISE IN CIGS NEAR THE METROPLEX
AIRPORTS BUT UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY RETURN
SHORTLY. CLEARING LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE
PUSHED BACK THE TIMING TO 10Z IN THE METROPLEX AND 13Z AT WACO.
OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO SLOW DOWN THE CLEARING TREND A FEW HOURS WHICH
NECESSITATES RAISING MINIMUM TEMPS A BIT IN SOME LOCATIONS. TR.92

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

THANKS TO DENSE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...NOT
EVERYONE WARMED TO/ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE
NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING BUT THE
CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY FILLED IN SINCE THEN AS WARM MOIST AIR
CONTINUES TO RISE OVER THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER AT THE SURFACE. THE
DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR IS ONLY ABOUT 2600 FEET AGL. HOWEVER...SOME
MELTING OF THE ICE PACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE REGION
LIKELY DID OCCUR DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT FOG BUT
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
FOG THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL BE FELT OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35...BUT THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AS LIQUID RAIN AND END THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REACH FREEZING. EVEN IF TEMPERATURES DO REACH FREEZING BEFORE THE
RAIN ENDS...ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL
TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE 20S WHICH WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATER
OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S. ANY WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY REFREEZE AT THESE
TEMPERATURES MEANING ICY TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN TONIGHT...WE SHOULD NOT
HAVE ANY ADDITIONAL FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS NEARLY FULL SUN TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TO FURTHER MELT
THE ICE PACK AND MAY PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO
CONDITIONS.

QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE GET INTO
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. A CUTOFF LOW WILL MOVE OVER BAJA ON
THURSDAY AND BRING OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 40S ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT ANOTHER FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPER THE WARM UP FOR A FEW DAYS. AFTER TONIGHT...MORNING LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S THROUGH THURSDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.LONG TERM...
/THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM AND WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY EVENTUALLY
COMING TO AN END LATE IN THE DAY. THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND THERE IS NO MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
ON SATURDAY PUSHING THROUGH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE COOL AND DRY.

AS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  24  39  27  44  25 /   5   0   5   5   5
WACO, TX              25  41  25  47  29 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             23  39  25  45  26 /   5   0   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            21  38  24  43  21 /   5   0   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          22  39  25  44  24 /   5   0   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            25  39  28  45  27 /   5   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           25  40  26  47  27 /  10   5   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         25  42  27  47  29 /  10   5   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            25  41  26  48  30 /  10   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     21  39  25  43  22 /   5   0   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$