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000
FXUS64 KFWD 161943
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
243 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight through Thursday...

An area of modest instability continues across N Texas extending
from Gainsville southward to just west of Waco. This area of
clouds and very isolated and very light showers will continue
moving eastward through this evening.

Some of the high resolution model guidance suggests that isolated
thunderstorms may develop this evening to the west and northwest
of the metroplex and rapidly diminish after sunset.

The cold front moving into Oklahoma tonight should be sufficient
to focus showers and thunderstorms to the north of the Red
River. Some of the models are advertising the possibility of
outflow surging southward into North Texas overnight/before
sunrise with the potential for showers/isolated thunderstorms in
the northern counties. Right now have kept rain chances higher to
the north of DFW but not confident the rain/thunder will be strong
enough to have impacts from DFW southward.

Vanspeybroeck

.LONG TERM...
/Thursday Night, The Weekend, Into Early Next Week/

A stationary surface front will be draped across Southern Oklahoma
with a possible residual outflow boundary somewhere north of I-20
/I-30 left over from Thursday morning`s activity. Isolated to
scattered showers/tstorms will possibly be ongoing along the old
outflow boundary at the start of the period, then wind off after
nightfall Thursday evening. A shortwave disturbance will move out
over the Southern High Plains during this time with new tstorms
generating upstream, then likely congealing into an MCS after
nightfall with the LLJ and associated warm advection establishes
by midnight and after. This complex will likely move into parts of
the Red River Valley, while weakening by daybreak Friday morning
with best chances occurring across the far northeast counties
(that don`t need any more rain) the remainder of Friday morning.
That said, due to the aforementioned weakening with the veering
and weakening LLJ, we only expect spotty heavier amounts up to an
and nothing in terms of widespread heavy rain, thus no hydrologic
highlights are expected.

The upper high will intensify and build across the area this
weekend making for drier weather, but continued hot and humid
weather fairly typical of August. The old surface boundary nearby
or across our northern counties will likely mix out or be pulled
back northward quickly. That said, surface pressure fields will
beirelatively benign with lesser wind speeds and highs continuing
between 95 and 100 degrees. Richer column moisture will exist
from East Texas and the Ark-La-Tex east toward the Lower Mississippi
Valley this weekend, so cannot rule a few isolated, diurnal showers
and storms each afternoon and evening. At this time, the flow
aloft will be weak with the upper high draped across the region,
though high instability could result in a brief strongeri storms
with gusty winds and heavy downpours.

As briefly noted above, temperatures to the south of the surface
front/outflow boundary will be hot and steamy with highs 95 to
100 degrees Friday. However, wind speeds of 10 to 15 mph will
likely limit the effects of the heat somewhat. Any areas reaching
near 105 degrees heat index would likely be spotty and we do not
anticipated any heat advisory to be issued, though the usual rules
apply when expected to be doing any strenuous or recreational
activities outdoors. The heat will remain intact with the expanding
and strengthening upper high this weekend with lighter winds, at
which time heat advisories may need to be considered. We will
address these issues as we get closer to the weekend.

05/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  94  78  98  79 /  50  40  20  20  10
Waco                79 97 78 100 77    /  10   5  10  10   5
Paris               76  90  74  93  74 /  50  40  30  40  20
Denton              77  94  76  95  76 /  50  40  30  20  10
McKinney            77  93  76  95  76 /  50  40  30  20  10
Dallas              79  94  79  98  80 /  50  40  20  20  10
Terrell             77  94  76  97  76 /  20  40  20  20  10
Corsicana           78  95  77  97  77 /  10  10  10  10   5
Temple              78  98  76 100  76 /   5   5  10  10   5
Mineral Wells       75  93  74  96  74 /  50  40  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

05/92