Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 310921
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
421 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIPITATION AND ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER IS EXITING TO THE
SOUTH. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEARS POORLY DEFINED IN THE
NOCTURNAL WIND FIELD...BUT NORTH WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NEARLY
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHERE WINDS ARE CALM OR NEAR
CALM...THE DEW POINT SPREAD SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY GROUND FOG...EVEN
WHERE THURSDAY RAIN WAS SUFFICIENT TO WET THE GROUND. GUSTY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE ARE AS FAR AWAY AS KANSAS...BUT THE WIND PROFILE
FROM THE FORT WORTH 88D RADAR IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-KT WINDS
AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO FALL ANOTHER 10 DEGREES BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT...
WHEN COUPLED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUNGE INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FREEZING
IN OUTLYING AND LOW-LYING AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES. AS THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAHAM TO SULPHUR
SPRINGS. THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GROUND
TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE DEW (FROST) POINT...EVEN WHERE
2-METER TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT...FROST IS
ALSO UNLIKELY IN AREAS THAT SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...
EVEN THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS AS
WELL. EVEN SO...AT THESE TEMPERATURES...ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN
WIND OR MOISTURE PROFILES COULD RESULT IN A KILLING FROST...EVEN
IN AREAS WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. AS SUCH...
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1201 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
/06Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT AOB 10 KTS WILL INCREASE TO 12-17 KTS FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND
SUNSET FRIDAY AS THE WINDS START TO TURN MORE NORTHEAST. SOME
CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 3-5 KFT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
METROPLEX FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

82/JLD


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              70  36  65  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             64  31  57  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            65  32  61  41  69 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          66  33  60  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  37  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           68  35  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         71  36  62  40  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            73  38  64  41  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  33  65  42  69 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

09/25





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