Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 230102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
702 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

A quick update to remove Flash Flood Watch headlines from text
products. Made some slight adjustments to PoPs/Wx to recent radar
trends, with showers and a few tstms mainly acrs southeast TX
expected to diminish over the next few hours. A small chc for
showers will persist overnight, with very light rainfall amounts



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

00z taf issuance.

MVFR ceilings prevailing at BPT/LCH, and expected within the next
couple of hours for remaining sites this evening. Expecting
ceilings to lower to IFR at AEX, with IFR around 04-06z, and LIFR
between 08-09z for southern terminals, along with IFR visibility
restrictions. Expect slowly rising ceilings during the morning,
with MVFR to VFR expected by the afternoon with the increase in SE


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...Radar showing scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over interior southeast Texas. Activity just along
and ahead of a retreating frontal boundary. A Flash Flood Watch
is in effect for this area as well as Vernon parish where
significant rains fell yesterday. Watch will be allowed to expire
at 6 pm as activity diminishes.

Unseasonably warm and humid late February weather will continue
into Saturday with rain chances remaining limited and primarily
for afternoon convection. Models bring aforementioned retreated
front back over the region Saturday night as shortwave energy
advances across the plains then northeast. Cooler temperatures
following. Boundary is expected to stall over the near coastal
waters maintaining elevated showers and thunderstorms across the
region through Sunday. A second shortwave advancing across the
plains will push active boundary deeper into the gulf late Sunday
into early Monday. Rain chances then lessen for the first half of
the work-week.

MARINE...A long fetch of warm and moist south to southeast
winds advancing over the relatively cooler shelf waters of the
northwest Gulf will continue through Saturday. This will result
in a continued high probability of sea fog development. A
shortwave trof advancing through the plains will advance a cold
front into the near shore waters Saturday night where it is
expected to stall. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the
front and continue into Sunday, finally kicking out Sunday night
as a second shortwave trof advances through.



AEX  65  79  66  79 /  20  50  30  40
LCH  67  78  67  78 /  20  40  20  30
LFT  68  80  68  80 /  20  50  20  40
BPT  67  78  67  77 /  20  30  20  40


GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ450-452-455.


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