Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 291330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...BUMPING UP POPS IN SE TX
THIS MORNING. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE AFTERNOON POPS AND TEMPS...SO
WILL BE MONITORING THE SITUATION THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS MOVING TOWARDS SE TX HAVE BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. HAVE UPDATES BPT AND LCH
FOR MRNG STORMS. WILL MONITOR STORM MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH TO MAKE
NECESSARY UPDATES. LOOKING FOR CEILINGS/WINDS/AND LIGHTNING ISSUES
FOR THIS NEXT LINE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WX MAP SHOWS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE SE U.S.
RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...WITH A TROF OVER C TX.
ALOFT...SHORT WAVE TROF OVER W TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD
TODAY. THIS FEATURE HAS GENERATED AN MCS THU EVENING AND SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD OVER C AND E TX THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS...HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS CONTINUING TO DIVE ACROSS S TX. AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY...OUR
POPS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING...AND LOOKING
AT 40-50% BY THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST INLAND AREAS.

A LARGER LONGWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS TX OVER THE
WEEKEND...GENERATING INCREASED MOISTURE/LIFT FOR EVEN BETTER
CHANCES (50-60% OR HIGHER) BY SAT AFTERNOON..AND CONTINUING INTO
SUN.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MOST MODELS
WANT TO CUT OFF THE LONGWAVE TROF INTO AN ALMOST VERTICALLY STACK
LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. & NORTHERN GULF. THE PROBLEM
IS THE NAM DOES THIS OVER TX...THE GFS OVER LA...AND THE ECMWF
OVER THE E GULF. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE A DIFFERENCE IN PRECIP
SOLN OVER OUR REGION MON-THU OF NEXT WEEK. SUPERBLEND OF ALL
MODELS STILL CONTINUES TO SHOW ~40-50% EACH AFTERNOON WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS.

DML

MARINE...
SE WINDS 5-10 KTS AND SEAS 1-2 FT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
REGION...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA. A LARGER
TROF IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TEXAS...RESULTING IN EVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  87  70  85  68 /  40  30  60  60
LCH  86  73  85  70 /  40  20  60  40
LFT  86  72  85  70 /  40  20  50  40
BPT  86  73  85  70 /  50  20  60  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...15


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