Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 201139
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
639 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING OUT TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. WV IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR FOR A CHANGE ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS TRENDING DRIER THAN NORMAL.SOME PATCHY IFR FOG AROUND AEX.
OTHERWISE CAVOK WITH SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG BY MIDNIGHT AT BPT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT A SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

COOL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES THROUGH VIRGINIA TO ACROSS THE GREAT
SMOKIES AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT MARKS ITS OUTER
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY...STRETCHING THROUGH DAYTONA BEACH TO PALACIOS.

DISCUSSION...

A NORTHEASTERLY DRY PUSH...TRAPPED BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND
STATIONARY FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES. ASSOCIATED SINKING AIR WILL EXTINGUISH MOST
CONVECTIVE PLUMES.

OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM-AND-OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

BY SUNDAY...A NORTHERN PLAINS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS. ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL
SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE PINEY HILLS/LAKES REGION BY EARLY EVENING
MONDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY. SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS (A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) ARE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.

MARINE...

MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY DRY PUSH.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE DIFFERENCES-IN-PRESSURE SEPARATE THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

EASTERLY COMBINED (WIND AND SWELL) WAVES WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST...
WITH A PERIOD AROUND 5 SECONDS. THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
ALMOST A FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE VALUES.

OUTLOOK...

THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PLAINS FRONT WILL COME TO A HALT
ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EASTERLY WAVES...
EMANATING OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...WILL BE DUCTED WESTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTHERN (OR BAROCLINIC) SIDE OF FRONT.

THE DUCTED EASTERLY WAVES WILL BRING ABOUT SHOWERS (AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS)...FROM EAST-TO-WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  88  71  90  72  88 /  10  10  10  10  30
KBPT  86  72  89  72  86 /  10  10  10  10  30
KAEX  90  69  90  69  89 /  10  10  10  10  30
KLFT  88  70  89  71  88 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

$$







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