Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 250341
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1041 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...Radar showing isolated showers over Acadiana and the
adjacent coastal waters. Have introduced low end pops overnight
along and south of I-10 and into the gulf waters as shortwave
energy rotates about southeast CONUS high.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 646 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For 00z TAF issuance.

AVIATION...
Local 88Ds show widely scattered afternoon convection beginning to
wane with loss of heating...and vicinity mention was included for
threatened sites to account. Expect all activity to be gone
within the hour or so as heating further ends...with mainly VFR
conditions left to remain the rest of the night. Expect tomorrow
to be somewhat of a copy of today...although later shifts may have
to bump up convection chances as a weak sfc wave begins passing
the region which could lead to additional showers/storms.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 612 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

UPDATE...Brought in some isolated pops for the early evening with
convection ongoing. Otherwise, all looks good.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...A ridge aloft and at the surface remains stretched
across the southeast states and into the local area. While a
slightly drier airmass is located across SE TX and Western LA
today, a deeper moisture plume and weak inverted trough is being
advected west along the southern periphery. Where moisture is
higher, in SE LA back through the FL Panhandle, scattered to
numerous showers and storms have developed, especially along the
sea breeze. This moisture plume will work into the area tonight
with pwats increasing to around 2.25" by morning. This will
increase rain chances as daytime heating commences. Moisture will
decrease somewhat into Friday from east to west with higher rain
chances over SE TX. During the weekend rain chances return to the
more seasonable scattered afternoon storms as the moisture plume
and weak inverted trough exit.

Into next week... A tropical disturbance will move toward the
generally direction of South Florida and possibly into the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead and west of this disturbance or what
ever form it may be in, moisture will slightly decrease again
across the local area. This will decrease rain chances a bit more.
For the latest on this disturbance refer to NHC.

MARINE...A generally light to moderate easterly flow is expected
flow is expected Thursday through the weekend as the ridge axis
remains north of the area. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms can be expected Thursday and Friday as deep moisture and a
weak trough move across the area. Lesser rain chances are expected
during the weekend, however isolated to scattered storms will
still occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  91  74  91 /  10  50  20  40
LCH  77  89  75  90 /  20  50  40  50
LFT  76  89  75  90 /  20  60  30  40
BPT  77  90  76  89 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23



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