Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 200237
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
937 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
The earlier convection has diminished with the loss of daytime
heating leaving behind just some high level cloudiness. For the
remainder of the night, expect muggy conditions. With low level
moisture, light winds, and mainly clearing skies, would expect
patchy fog to form again after midnight, being most widespread
just before sunrise, then dissipate by mid morning. Current
forecast has a handle on the situation and no changes needed at
this time.

Rua

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
20/00Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION...
Sctd CU field and isltd -SHRA diminishing late this aftn with
widespread CI streaming acrs the region. High clouds will linger
overnight with light winds. Areas of fog/stratus expected to
affect TAF sites again tonight with prevailing MVFR vsbys
expected after 08-09Z, as well as periodic IFR vsbys/cigs toward
12Z. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by 14-15Z. Winds
will be southerly 5-10 KT during the daytime Wednesday with isltd
to sctd -SHRA developing by early aftn.

24

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the
nern Gulf maintaining a moist onshore low-level flow. Water vapor
imagery continues to show a more zonal flow in place aloft as a
longwave trof continues pushing ewd across the Rockies. Local
88Ds show scattered showers/storms across the area again this
afternoon, primarily north of the I-10 corridor.

Once diurnal convection dissipates with sunset/loss of heating,
primary issue again becomes fog potential overnight...and given no
real change to the synoptic setup, expect combo of abundant low-
level moisture/decoupling flow/clearing skies to allow low clouds
and patchy fog to develop prior to sunrise. Tomorrow appears to be
a copy of today with scattered diurnal convection, possibly helped
along over the wrn zones by a weak disturbance noted in today`s
model runs. Daytime highs warming to around 90, with dew points
into the 70s, will allow for apparent temps around 100F.

Seasonal POPs remain in the forecast through the remainder of the
period as sufficient moisture lingers and interacts with a
developing shear axis aloft thanks to deepening trof over the wrn
CONUS helping sharpen up ridging over the core of the country...
along with Jose spinning off the middle Atlantic coast.

MARINE...
Light and mostly onshore flow should continue through the period
with high pressure remaining anchored to our east or northeast...
and thusly no flags are anticipated on the coastal waters at this
time.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  91  72  92 /  10  30  10  30
LCH  76  89  76  90 /  10  30  10  30
LFT  75  91  73  91 /  10  30  10  30
BPT  76  89  75  89 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07


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