Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 281739
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1239 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NRN LA WITH NO CONVECTION ATTM.
PUSHED BACK ONSET OF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TSTMS FOR VCTS TO MID
AFTERNOON FOR ACADIANA AIRPORTS LFT AND ARA AND TO LATE AFTERNOON
FOR AEX.

SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL NOT INITIALIZED VERY WELL...NOT CAPTURING
THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THAT SAID,
ANALYZED GOOD THETA AND SHORT WAVE ENERGY LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO
WENT WITH THE LATER HRR SOLUTION OF A SECOND BATCH OF TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT.

INCLUDED ANOTHER MENTION OF VCTS LATE MORNING TUESDAY AS THE NAM
HAS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH THE BEST SHORT
WAVE ENERGY AND INSTABILITY AROUND BPT AND LCH. TUESDAY COVERAGE
APPEARS TO0 SPARSE FOR LFT AND ARA. INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AT AEX.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN E-W CDFNT ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR...WITH EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION SENDING OUTFLOWS INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MDL FCST SOUNDINGS POINT TO MDT/STG INSTABILITY
WITH LITTLE/NO CINH BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH KINEMATIC PARAMETERS
ARE WEAK...AS IS OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT. ISOLD/SCTD PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS. THUS...WILL PRESERVE THE INHERITED LOW END CHANCE
POPS...AND WILL UPDATE THE HWO TO MENTION AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LOW END DAMAGING WIND/DOWNBURST RISK.

FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TARGET...WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
HOURLY GRIDS TO BRING THEM IN LINE WITH LATEST OBS/TRENDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
STORMS OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA ARE SAGGING SOUTH AT THIS TIME.
STORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR FLIGHT RULES THOUGH THE NOON HOUR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING OVER THE GULF
STATES...WITH A COOL FRONT APPROACHING THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS
N TX/S OK. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS MORNING...PRETTY MUCH
WHAT TO EXPECT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AS THE LARGE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH INLAND SE TX/C LA LATER THIS EVENING...AND
REACH THE COAST LATE TUE MORNING. ALONG AN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...INCREASED
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND MAX HEATING...AND CONTINUED HIGHER POPS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THIS EVENING INTO TUE MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SE
TX/S LA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA INLAND EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY TUE NIGHT INTO
THU...ALTHOUGH STAYING ELEVATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND REMAINS A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION TO FORM. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THE
NEXT PERTURBATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH
INCREASED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR FRI AS IT INDUCES A WEAK FRONTAL
WAVE ALONG OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE N GULF. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES REMAIN FOR SAT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE
BY SUN AS THE MOISTURE DIMINISHES WITH THE DECAYING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL MAINTAIN A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY. A WEAK COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND STALL...BRINGING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...ONLY TO BE DRIVEN BACK
SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS...BUT WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION PENDING THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  76  91  74  90 /  30  40  40  20  20
KBPT  94  76  92  76  90 /  20  30  40  20  30
KAEX  93  71  91  69  89 /  30  30  20  10  10
KLFT  93  75  90  72  90 /  30  40  30  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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