Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 281149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
549 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

28/12Z TAF Issuance.


Widespread low clouds are seen acrs the area this morning with IFR
cigs at southern terminals and MVFR cigs at AEX. Some intermittent
light fog with vsbys of 5-6 mi could impact LCH/BPT the next
couple of hours as well. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds will
prevail today with cigs improving to MVFR during the morning then
VFR by midday. Sustained winds of 10-15 kt this morning will
increase to 15-20 kt by midday with gusts of 22-28 kt expected
through the aftn. Winds will diminish some after 00Z but remain
strong and occasionally gusty overnight. Cigs will also quickly
trend back toward IFR after sunset.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

Warm and muggy conditions across the forecast area to start this
Mardi Gras. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dew point
readings in the upper 60s. Latest moisture profiles are also well
above the norm with Precipitable Water Values (PWAT) above 1.35
inches. Southerly low level jet helping to keep any significant
fog from forming with mainly low cloud ceilings. The low level jet
is helping to form few streamer type showers in the abundant
moisture under the cap, mainly over upper Southeast Texas and
West Central Louisiana. A short wave is noted on the water vapor
imagery moving from the west coast into the rockies.


Warm and muggy conditions will persist until the west coast short
wave helps to push a cold front across the forecast area during
the daytime on Wednesday.

Gradient today setting up for breezy southerly winds to help
continue to bring warm and moist Gulf air in to the region. Wind
speeds are progged to be just below wind advisory criteria, but
may make for an extra effort to throw those beads from the
floats. Still looks like cap in place will hold, so will not
mention any shower activity for today. Temperatures will be near
daily record highs with readings in the low to mid 80s, making for
one of the warmest Mardi Gras` in Lake Charles for a long time.
See climate section below.

Cold front will enter the forecast area of Southeast Texas by late
morning on Wednesday, then move across the forecast area during
the afternoon hours. Abundant Gulf moisture will be in place and
even increase right ahead of the front from 30-35 knot low level
jet. Main question for shower activity will be if cap can hold or
not. Latest NAM runs are little dry with cap holding, while other
guidance allows for enough frontal forcing and lift to allow for
at-least a broken line of convection to form ahead of it. Therefore,
will continue the chance pops that are already in the forecast.

Some marginal parameters are in place for convection that breaks
through the cap during the afternoon hours could be on the strong
side. Bulk shear from 0-6 km is 50 to 60 knots, although profiles
are mainly uni-directional. 0-3 km and 3-6 km lapse rates are
around 6.5 c/km, and most unstable CAPE values are near 1500 j/kg,
especially during the afternoon hours over northeast and east
portions of the forecast area. Therefore, if storms can get going,
an isolated strong down burst wind gust or hail may occur. The
Storm Prediction Center continues to have areas northeast of a
Leesville to Lafayette line in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather
in the Day 2 period, that would cover the Wednesday frontal

Much cooler and drier air will make an appearance behind the front
for Wednesday Night, with these conditions persisting into Friday.

Some differences have arisen for the weekend into early next week
as to when decent return flow develops, along with a coastal
trough, and upper level energy returns. Looks like this may not
take place until Monday or Tuesday, and therefore, have reduced
pops over the weekend.


Modest onshore flow will continue today. Some patchy fog may occur
over the near shore waters with warm moist air moving over the
somewhat cooler shelf waters. A cold front will move across the
coastal waters on late Wednesday. Strong north winds are expected
to develop as the strong high building in behind the front creates
somewhat of a pressure gradient and good cold air advection gets
going over the Gulf waters. Looks like Small Craft Advisory
conditions a good bet for Wednesday Night into Thursday.


Was looking at data from the dates of the past 20 Mardi Gras in
Lake Charles back to 1997, and if the forecast for today verifies,
it would be the warmest Mardi Gras for that period. The forecast
high of 81F would best the high of 79F from March 7, 2000, and
also the warmest February high of 78F from February 5, 2008. With
the low temperature being around 70F, the daily average
temperature would be around 75.5F, if the forecast high verifies.
This would shatter the warmest average daily temperature for Mardi
Gras during this period, which was 70F, again on March 7, 2000,
and 69F, which occurred on February 27, 2001, and February 5,

Also, with today being the last day in February, all official
climate sites are set to have one of their warmest February
readings of all time, with values between 8.5F and 10.5F degrees
above normal.

Beaumont (KBPT) current average monthly temperature of 66.3F
which would break the mark of 64.9F for February 1932.

Lafayette (KLFT) current average monthly temperature of 65.5F
which would break the mark of 64.9F for February 1932.

Lake Charles (KLCH) current average monthly temperature of 63.7F
which would be the second warmest behind 64.0F for February 1927
and ahead of the 62.7F for February 1932.

New Iberia (KARA) current average monthly temperature of 63.9F
which would be the second warmest behind 64.9F for February 1927
and ahead of the 63.1F for February 1911.

Alexandria (KAEX) current average monthly temperature of 61.7F
would be the third warmest behind 63.4F for February 1932, and
62.5F for February 1927, and ahead of 61.3F for February 1957.

Also of note, none of these official climate sites reported any
freezing temperatures during the month of February.



AEX  83  70  78  45 /  10  20  50  10
LCH  81  70  79  49 /  10  10  40  10
LFT  82  71  80  51 /  10  10  50  10
BPT  82  71  81  50 /  10  10  40  10




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