Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 170557
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1157 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.AVIATION...
Rains have picked up a bit ovr se Tx and srn La this eve. Low
ceilings at most TAF lctns... this along with fog will continue
thru sunrise and into the late mrng hrs before some improvement
becomes established.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map showing nearly stationary front over Central Texas
northeast through the Arklatex, not much movement in the last 24
hours. Radar not showing much activity, with a few showers across
Southeast Texas and off the coast. Having some reduced visibilities
south of I-10, and may see some patchy fog overnight into the
coastal waters. However, the wind and increased upper level lift
likely to remain high enough to prevent any dense fog or
widespread issues. Still expecting showers and thunderstorms to
increase overnight into Tuesday further inland across Southeast
Texas and Central Louisiana, so no changes in precip chances in
forecast.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 607 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

AVIATION...
Clouds to move in w/ ceilings falling tnght. Vsby xpcd to fall
drg the ovrnght hrs w/ F dvlpmnt... F thru sr. Shwrs psbl tmrw
mainly drg the aftn hrs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Shower activity has been waxing and waning through much of the day
in association with a disturbance centered over northern Oklahoma
this afternoon. There was enough of a break in the activity this
afternoon to allow the sun to come out across parts of southeast
Texas which quickly smashed its daily record of 78 (set in 1952)
by jumping to 82 degrees (A quick calendar reference confirms that
it is, indeed, still mid January). Lake Charles tied a record high
of 78 (previously set in 1935).

The upper trough over Oklahoma will continue to quickly eject
northeastward through the evening and this should allow activity
to briefly wane once again.

What will follow is a series of weak upper level disturbances
wrapping around a larger upper level trough moving out of Baja,
mexico tonight. As the trough slowly moves eastward Tuesday
through Thursday, waves of showers and thunderstorms will
traverse the area. A weak trailing cold front will swing through
the area Thursday night into early Friday bringing one last line
of storms before clearing the area Friday afternoon.

Due to its closer proximity to the trough, southeast Texas will
see the highest POPs and QPF values. Rainfall totals for the three
day period tonight through Friday morning are progged to be in
the 3-5 inch range with local amounts of 6-10 inches possible. A
Flash Flood Watch may be needed for parts of southeast Texas, but
with the highest QPF values not expected until Thursday there is
time to see how the system will evolve before having to make that
decision.

Only a brief respite from the rain Friday afternoon as rain
chances return Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning in advance
of a stronger cold front that will quickly push through the area.
Guidance is in surprisingly good agreement on this system
considering its day 6 time frame. Temperatures behind this front
are currently progged to finally return to more seasonal values
for next week with highs in the 60`s and lows in the mid to upper
40`s.

MARINE...
Isolated showers with possibly a thunderstorm this afternoon will
briefly wane this evening before increasing again after midnight.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected Tuesday through
Thursday as multiple atmospheric waves move across the region. A
weak cold front will push through the area Thursday night into
Friday morning clearing precipitation. With a warm, moist air mass
over the top of cooler nearshore shelf waters, patchy sea fog can
be expected over the next couple of days. Fog should clear out
with the frontal passage Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  70  60  70 /  30  70  40  70
LCH  67  74  66  73 /  30  50  40  60
LFT  68  77  67  75 /  20  40  20  40
BPT  67  75  66  75 /  60  70  50  70

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19



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