Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 220255
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
855 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST UPPER AIR OBSERVATION FROM KLCH SHOWS A SHALLOW COOL LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THE RESULT IS A DECENT INVERSION WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...LOW
STRATUS LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING DUE TO STRATUS BUILD DOWN. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY NEAR STEADY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND MAY INCREASE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY SUNRISE.
OVERALL THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO BIG CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
FOR AEX/LFT/ARA...SOME CLEARING OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BPT/LCH REMAINED IN MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS/VSBYS GRADUALLY LOWERING
AREAWIDE AFTER 06Z...EXPECTING INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR VSBY/CEILINGS
TOWARDS MORNING. AFTER 15Z...VSBY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS A S TO
SSW WINDS PICKS UP 14-16 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS...BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY WITH A MVFR CEILING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
NERN CONUS CONTINUING TO RIDGE SWWD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITS OVER THE CNTL/NERN GULF WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND PASSING OVER THE
SERN MARINE ZONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING NOW IN PLACE
OVER THE CNTL CONUS WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM SET TO DROP
THROUGH IT. CLOSER TO HOME SKIES HAVE REMAINED SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALL DAY ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW ACROSS
THE REGION.

MAIN WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
FAIRLY SATURATED LOW-LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ONSHORE FLOW
COMMENCING...AND A SUFFICIENT TEMP INVERSION. LIKELY THAT SOME
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG DEVELOP PRIOR TO SUNRISE GIVEN
EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS BUT FOR NOW HAVE CAPPED THE GRIDS/ZONES AT
JUST PATCHY FOG. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE FOG WILL HAVE BURNED
OFF BUT SMALL POPS GET INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST AS INCREASING
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF/DISTURBANCES ALOFT.
TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING
SRLY FLOW WITH MINS TONIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING...AND HIGHS TOMORROW SIMILARLY HIGHER.

POPS START CREEPING UPWARD MONDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL TROF IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN PUSHING INLAND. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DROPPING THROUGH THE TROF WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/LIFT TO INCLUDE
LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. THE ERN 1/4 OF THE AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING WHERE RICHER MOISTURE/BETTER
INSTABILITY/STEEPER LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED. LINGERING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD DEPART TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING BEHIND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS. A GOOD COOL DOWN IS FORECAST FOR BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S WEDNESDAY...AND MINS
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY PUSHING
EWD...ALLOWING A RETURN TO A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS
BEFORE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT USHER
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SRLY INTO MONDAY. THE INCREASING TREND
PREVIOUSLY NOTED FOR TOMORROW IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS SIGNIFICANT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS AT MOST NOW.
HOWEVER A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR BEHIND THE
FRONT...LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO A SRLY DIRECTION THROUGH LATE WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE TX COAST AND CROSSES THE CNTL/NERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  71  59  65  42 /  10  20  40  60  30
KBPT  53  72  59  63  42 /  10  20  30  50  20
KAEX  48  69  56  62  40 /  10  20  40  60  40
KLFT  52  71  61  67  45 /  10  20  40  70  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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