Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 212111
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
Issued by National Weather Service MEMPHIS TN
411 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Water Vapor Satellite trends/12Z Upper air analysis
indicates an upper level ridge located over portions of the
Southern Plains, Lower  Valley and into much of the Eastern
United States. Meanwhile, surface analysis indicates a ridge of
high pressure over the above mentioned areas. This is resulting in
mainly rain free conditions with an exception of isolated
thunderstorms across a portion of Southeast Arkansas and Central
Mississippi near the Mississippi River. As of 3 PM CDT,
temperatures across Arkansas are predominantly in the lower 90s at
most locations.

As mentioned above, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms have
developed coincident with convective temperatures being reached
during daytime heating across portions of Southeast Arkansas. This
activity is expected to diminish this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Short term models indicate a gradual increase in
coverage of isolated diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
across Arkansas this weekend through early next week. Temperatures
will remain nearly the same with highs mainly in the upper 80s to
lower 90s and lows in the middle 60s to around 70 degrees.

Latest long term model trends indicate a gradual increase in
shower and thunderstorm chances across Arkansas towards mid to
late next week as an upper level ridge axis shifts east and a
longwave trough begins to shift east from the Rockies and
Southwest United States. This will bring a cold front to the
region towards late next week and better chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

CJC


&&
.AVIATION...

Once the late morning MVFR CIGs break up...should see VFR
conditions through the rest of the afternoon/evening hrs. The
potential for seeing SHRA/TSRA should remain very low...though an
isolated SHRA/TSRA may be seen. Winds should remain less than 10
kts sustained for most sites except the NRN terminals where a bit
more breezy conditions may be seen this afternoon.
Overnight...expect some patchy fog once again.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     71  92  69  90 /   0  10   0  10
Camden AR         72  92  70  92 /   0  10   0  20
Harrison AR       69  90  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    71  90  70  90 /   0  10   0  10
Little Rock   AR  72  91  71  90 /   0  10   0  10
Monticello AR     72  92  71  90 /   0  10   0  20
Mount Ida AR      71  90  68  89 /   0  10   0  10
Mountain Home AR  70  91  67  88 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        71  92  69  90 /   0  10   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     72  92  70  90 /   0  10   0  20
Russellville AR   71  91  71  90 /   0  10   0  10
Searcy AR         71  91  69  90 /   0  10   0  10
Stuttgart AR      72  92  70  90 /   0  10   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...99


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