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000
FXUS64 KLZK 261148 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
648 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Regional mesoanalysis indicated a wrmfrnt draped acrs the Srn half
of the FA, and extended N/Wwrd towards a sfc low center, located
over Ern CO/Wrn KS. Regional mosaic radar imgry depicted incrsg covg
of weak showers acrs Ern OK and Wrn AR, invof the frnt.

Thru the day today, the aforementioned sfc low and asctd upper
shortwave trof should quickly lift N/Wrd, w/ broad Srly flow acrs an
expansive warm sector overspreading the Srn Cntrl US and greater
area of the Mid-South. Scattered and elevated convective activity is
expected to be ongoing around the Wrn to N/Wrn periphery of the FA
thru the pre-dawn hrs and into the later mrng hrs Fri mrng...
Though given the strong isentropic ascent/moisture transport, some
precip covg acrs portions of the FA cannot be ruled out later on
this mrng. Modest destabilization is still favored acrs the region
today though, w/ 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE progged b/w 22-00Z
tonight, overlaid by modest deep-layer shear.

More prominent convective development is currently progged acrs Ern
OK along an advancing dryline later Fri, most lkly during the early
evng hrs. Discrete cells, including supercells wl be favored, w/
bulk shear vectors largely perpendicular to the bndry, and should
support maintenance of supercells and supercell clusters as
convective activity moves Ewrd into AR later this evng. If discrete
cells are still mainly prevalent as activity approaches the FA, an
incrsg tornado threat may arise, as LLWS should bcm more favorable
near 00Z and later, with the development of a LLJ. Large hail and
damaging winds may also accompany any ongoing supercells this evng,
and a greater damaging wind threat can be anticipated if more storm
mergers occur and upscale growth into linear complexes is observed.

Confidence is not great attm regarding the duration of the severe wx
threat beyond 00Z... if storms quickly become detached from the more
favorable near-surface layer, and elevated, the severe threat would
greatly decrease by 03-06Z Fri night.

In addition to the severe threat, some locally heavy rainfall w/
supercells wl be possible as well, and isolated instances of
flooding issues may arise through tonight acrs the N/Wrn portions of
the FA.

Sat, a moisture-rich warm sector wl remain in place over the Srn
Cntrl US, overlaid by mean S/Wrly upper flow as a broad longwave
trof advances acrs the S/Wrn US. Scattered precip, including
thunderstorms wl remain in the fcst for much of the local area on
Sat, w/ temps beginning to trend upwards to above normal readings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The beginning of the long-term forecast period on Sunday begins
amidst an unsettled weather pattern. An upper lvl closed low will be
over the Central Plains with a resultant trof and 500 mb jet axis of
70-90+ knot winds that will be placed over Oklahoma and Arkansas
with part of the CWA in the right front entrance region promoting
strong ascent. At the sfc, a deepening sfc low pressure center will
be positioned across Kansas with an attendant southward extending
cold front that will be across eastern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas
by Sunday afternoon. In tandem with the sfc feature, a sfc high
pressure center will be fixated over the Mid-Atlantic region of the
CONUS which will provide a funneling effect of broad warm sector
across the state with strong southerly winds ahead of the advancing
cold front that will advect warm temperatures into the region in the
low to mid 80`s along with moisture-rich air as dewpoint
temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s across that state. The
parameter space across the state of Arkansas on Sunday will be
primed for all modes of severe weather including large hail, severe
wind gusts, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Expect the
possibility of strong and severe thunderstorms on Sunday.

Unfortunately, Monday through Thursday will keep the rain and
isolated thunderstorm chances in the forecast as the cold front
attempts to track across Arkansas on Monday, but becomes a
stationary front into the day on Tuesday stalling out across
northern Arkansas. At the moment, severe weather chances remain
unforeseen on Monday and Tuesday, but continued rainfall will keep
the possibility of flash flooding a concern.

During mid-week on Wednesday and Thursday, a cold front will
approach the Natural State from the northwest, but remain across
Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. However, the sfc feature will be
close enough to the CWA to keep rain and isolated thunderstorms in
the forecast through Thursday. Wednesday appears to be the most dry
opportunity with lower POPs overall, but the presence of several
storm systems and their attendant boundaries in close proximity to
the state will keep POP chances in the long-term forecast overall.
The day that does warrant the most attention given this current
forecast package in the long-term period is definitely Sunday when
the parameter space across Arkansas will be favorable for severe
weather. Flash flooding will continue to be a concern throughout the
entire long-term forecast period with the possibility of some minor
river flooding within certain basins as increased rainfall over this
period appears likely.

Temperatures over the long-term forecast period will continue to be
above normal compared to climatological normals for both low and
high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Large cirrus shield was moving over N/Wrn AR fm a convective
complex in Ern OK. MVFR condns were noted acrs Nrn AR, w/ some
VCSH around the FA. Thru the day, a wrmfrnt wl be moving Nwrd acrs
the FA, w/ winds bcmg Srly, and gusty at times, w/ readings of 10
to 15 kts, and gusts in excess of 15 to 20 kts. Incrsg covg of
SHRA/TS wl be noted acrs Wrn to N/Wrn AR thru the day, w/ precip
activity moving into Cntrl AR later this evng. Intermittent MVFR
condns wl be noted around the FA, primarily for Nrn to Cntrl
terminals. LLWS wl also be noted thru the mrng hrs today acrs Wrn
AR.

/72/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     78  66  81  65 /  60  60  60  10
Camden AR         81  67  84  66 /  30  40  30  10
Harrison AR       72  63  79  64 /  90  40  50  40
Hot Springs AR    78  66  82  66 /  70  50  60  20
Little Rock   AR  81  69  84  66 /  50  50  50  10
Monticello AR     83  68  85  65 /  10  30  20  10
Mount Ida AR      76  65  81  65 /  90  50  70  30
Mountain Home AR  75  63  79  65 /  80  50  60  20
Newport AR        81  68  83  65 /  40  40  40  10
Pine Bluff AR     81  68  85  65 /  20  40  30  10
Russellville AR   76  64  81  65 /  90  60  70  30
Searcy AR         79  66  82  62 /  40  50  50  10
Stuttgart AR      81  69  84  65 /  30  40  40  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...72