Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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977
FXUS64 KLZK 262313 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
613 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to persist through much of this TAF period.
Some fog may be seen at ADF during the morning hrs...along with
some potential for SHRA/TSRA after 10/11Z Thu at the NRN
terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 248 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday

Expect one more day of very warm conditions across the state.

Recent observations indicate scattered cumulus across all but northeast
sections of the forecast area, with head index values ranging
from the upper 90s north, to near 105 in several central
locations.

A mid-season cold front, subjectively analyzed from northern
Missouri, to southwest Kansas will approach northern portions of the state
late Thursday afternoon. This feature will promote scattered
convection as it approaches. Forecast soundings suggest the
potential for a few cells to briefly approach severe levels late
in the afternoon and early evening, with damaging wind gusts the
main threat.

The front will continue slowly southward on
Friday, with additional development expected across southern
sections.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

Extended term will begin with the cold front pushing through the
state, with showers and thunderstorms lingering across the south
through Saturday morning.

The weekend itself should see drier and cooler temperatures, making
for very pleasant conditions. The upper level ridge will remain to
the west, with Arkansas remaining on the eastern edge under a
northerly to northwesterly flow pattern. There could be a few
shortwaves passing through the flow by Monday, but with the dry and
stable conditions I am not expecting any precip.

Warm and moist air will start working its way into the area at the
end of the extended term on Wednesday, and a stronger shortwave
dropping down across the plains states will bring some POPs back to
the forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-
Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Aviation...62



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