Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 232047
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
247 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.Short term...Thursday night Saturday night

Very benign conditions are expected to continue through the period
with no real chances of rainfall expected. Models differences are
minimal in the short term and as such, a blend of solutions is
preferred.

High pressure to the south of the state will continue to slide away
from the region through Friday afternoon. As such, winds will turn
more southerly and lows tonight will not be quite as cold as was
experienced Thursday morning. Tightening pressure gradient will
result in elevated winds and breezy conditions for Friday but no
headlines are expected at this time. Temperatures will warm in
response to the southerly winds.

Low pressure moving through southern Canada will drag a cold front
through the state Friday night through Saturday afternoon. With no
moisture to work with, only some clouds and a wind shift will mark
its passage. High pressure will start to build back into the state
to end the period.
&&

.Long term...Sunday through Thursday

Northwest flow aloft will be over Arkansas to begin the long term
period with high pressure over the southwest and an upper trough
over the northeast. The upper ridge will spread to the east Sunday
and Monday as another upper trough enters the Pacific Northwest.
This trough moves into the Plains Monday night through Tuesday
night and to the east coast Wednesday and Thursday. GFS and ECMWF
show a cutoff low developing Tuesday...but the ECMWF is slower and
further to the north at this time.

Dry conditions will continue through the first part of the long term
period. High pressure will be over the state for Sunday and Monday.
A warm front will move through the state Tuesday morning.
Instability will bring a chance of showers to the area Tuesday. A
cold front will then move through the state Wednesday. Moisture will
be fairly limited. Do not expect any large QPF amounts. Mainly above
normal temperatures are expected through the long term period.
&&

.Fire weather

With the lack of wetting rain and significant moisture in
general, conditions will remain favorable for elevated to high
wildfire danger across the state. While red flag criteria will not
be met with either winds or humidity over the next week or so,
overall dry conditions and cured fuels will promote wildfire
growth. Burn bans have been issued for several counties and the
number could increase until significant rainfall is seen.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     38  65  47  63 /   0   0  10   0
Camden AR         35  67  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       40  69  45  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    37  67  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  38  66  47  66 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     37  64  45  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      36  69  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  38  69  45  64 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        37  64  46  64 /   0   0  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     37  65  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   36  68  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         35  65  45  64 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      38  65  46  64 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...56 / Long Term...51


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