Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 261921
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
221 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2016
Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain with the
current upper system and cold front affecting the region. Any risk
of strong or severe storms. Finally a temperature forecast before
and then after the front moves into Ar.
Did see early morning fog over parts of AR, especially central
locations, which dissipated an hour or two after sunset. Not
expecting much tonight with more mixing in the atmosphere. The
upper shortwave system is currently moving into the region, and
developing isolated to scattered convection. The cold front is
located in eastern OK to western MO, while the upper system has
made progress to western AR to central MO. Overall trend has be
weakening as the convection moves southeast. The convection will
gradually move southeast later this afternoon to more in the
evening. Only a marginal risk of strong to severe storms remains
in the forecast, mainly over OK. Temperatures were running in the
70s in most locals, while some around 80 were seen in the south.
Late morning update will again fine tune convection chances and
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday Night
Will start the forecast with clouds and a low chance of convection
over northwest to northern AR. This gradually transitions to
central AR as the upper system moves through the region tonight.
Models as consistent with this trend, while HRRR holds some
weakening convection moving through the state tonight, then ending
by Thursday morning. As mentioned, the strong storm risk remains
low, and mainly in far western AR to OK. Moisture is limited over
AR and rain amounts are forecast to be only a few hundreds to a
few tenths. Thursday to Friday, surface and upper high pressure
systems again build in over the region, and bring dry weather and
warming temperatures. Lows will be in the 50s to 60s. While highs
in the 70s to mainly 80s. A few record temperatures will be seen
to the end of the week, with highs running 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, especially over central to southern AR.
.LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday Night
Overall the sensible weather looks to be rather benign through
the extended period with virtually no chance of rain until the
very end. While there are some discrepancies between the models,
especially later in the period, these differences would not have a
meaningful impact on the overall pattern. As such, a blend of
solutions will be used this afternoon.
The period initiates with a fairly active northern branch but over
the southern plains and southeast conus, upper level ridging will
largely dominate. A weak system passing to the north of the state
will knock the ridging down briefly Saturday night and early Sunday
before reestablishing itself.
Another boundary ties to drop down on Tuesday with little impact
expected with a more significant system possible as the period
concludes. Will leave the forecast dry for now and take a wait and
see approach for next week.
Southerly flow will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal
into early next week. Temperatures cool off somewhat after but will
still remain above normal through the entire period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 57 78 55 81 / 20 0 0 0
Camden AR 55 82 56 84 / 10 0 0 0
Harrison AR 55 75 56 79 / 30 0 0 0
Hot Springs AR 57 81 57 81 / 20 10 0 0
Little Rock AR 57 81 57 82 / 20 0 0 0
Monticello AR 56 83 58 84 / 10 0 0 0
Mount Ida AR 57 80 56 80 / 30 10 0 0
Mountain Home AR 55 76 55 80 / 30 0 10 0
Newport AR 57 79 55 82 / 20 0 0 0
Pine Bluff AR 56 81 57 83 / 10 0 0 0
Russellville AR 56 81 57 82 / 30 0 0 0
Searcy AR 56 80 56 82 / 20 0 0 0
Stuttgart AR 56 81 57 83 / 10 0 0 0
Short Term...59 / Long Term...56