Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 051137 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START MAINLY MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR AND AREAS
OF VFR. PATCHY AREAS OF MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS AND FOG WILL
BE SEEN THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID
MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND USED VCSH AND VCTS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ONLY
USED VCTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SE TO SW AROUND 5 MPH
THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15 MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ ISSUED 236 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOME ISOLATED SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND DO THINK THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS GOING THIS MORNING AS A RESULT...BUT THINK ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER
SUNRISE...HIGH RES MODEL DATA KEEPS BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS
THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY...SO HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER
POPS THROUGH 18Z ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE CWA FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA. THIS AFTERNOON...THINK BEST POPS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
SRN SECTIONS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE FURTHER
NORTH DURING THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON HRS. WITH SRLY FLOW
INCREASING FOR THIS SUN...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THINK MOST PRECIP WILL BE VERY ISOLATED...SO
HAVE SILENT TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL ALSO BE
THE CASE FOR MON AS WELL...WITH ONLY SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION POSSIBLE. KEEP POPS FAIRLY LOW AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL BE
A BIT WARMER TOO...WITH MID 80S TO MID 90S EXPECTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NW FOR TUE AND WED.
HAVE LOW POPS FOR TUE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NWRN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL
BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. AS THIS FRONT
GETS CLOSER...DO INCREASE POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO WED...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD STILL STALL JUST TO THE NW OF THE
CWA. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FROM THE SW AT THIS TIME...SO THERE MAY BE
SOME FORCING FROM UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LIFTING NE OVER THE
REGION TO KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR THE NWRN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA. LESSER CHANCES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH AN
OVERALL LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...AND A BIT MORE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN AR INITIALLY. THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE U.S.
LATE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AM...THE EURO WEAKENS THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND SHOWS COME POTENTIAL CONVECTION. GFS KEEPS IT
DRY...AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN. WILL KEEP IT DRY AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  72  90  74 /  30  20  20  10
CAMDEN AR         88  74  93  74 /  40  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       86  70  87  70 /  30  20  20  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  73  91  74 /  40  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  73  92  74 /  30  20  20  10
MONTICELLO AR     87  73  92  74 /  40  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  72  89  73 /  40  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  71  89  72 /  30  20  20  20
NEWPORT AR        88  72  90  73 /  30  20  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     88  72  91  73 /  40  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   90  72  91  73 /  30  20  20  20
SEARCY AR         88  72  90  72 /  30  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      87  72  91  72 /  30  20  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59







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