Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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525
FXUS64 KLZK 060824
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
224 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY GETTING CUT OFF
ALONG THE RED RIVER. SYSTEM CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY AT THIS TIME WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES STATES.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME GENERALLY LIGHT RETURNS OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA  BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY IS
REACHING THE GROUND WITH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS ANYWHERE
FROM 6 TO 12 DEGREES.

ALL HIGH RESOLUTION AND EVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS TAKE THIS CUT
OFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE US AND AS SUCH THE DRY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND
WITH THE ENTIRE STATE NOW LISTED IN MODERATE FIRE DANGER CATEGORY...
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING IN. THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHUNTED QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST
ON SUNDAY AS ATTENTION TURNS TO AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. AFTER
A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY AND BREEZIER DAY SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITH CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR SPILLING
IN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH EVEN FLURRIES HARD TO COME BY ALTHOUGH A FEW CAN
NOT RULED OUT.
&&

.LONG TERM PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE RATHER BENIGN
WEATHER. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A LARGE TROUGH
CARVING OUT A HOME ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48.
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS WILL
USHER IN A FAIRLY COLD AIR MASS TO START THE PERIOD OFF...AND A
DISTURBANCE PASSING BY EARLY MONDAY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE DRY.

BY THURSDAY THE UPPER FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT...ALLOWING AN
UPPER RIDGE TO START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND FOR REGIONAL
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A WEAK SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND TURNING WINDS BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE 60 DEGREES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
THOSE DAYS. THE WARM UP DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE
THU/FRI SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO ARRIVE JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  35  58  33 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         56  32  59  35 /  10   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       53  32  55  29 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  33  58  34 /  10   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  33  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     55  33  59  36 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      55  32  58  32 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  33  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        54  32  57  34 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     53  33  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   55  31  59  32 /  10   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         54  31  58  32 /   0   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      53  32  58  35 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...64



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