Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 192025
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
325 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer ridging will prevail overnight, with dry northerly flow
gradually becoming more easterly. This could favor fog development
south of Interstate-10 in the Florida panhandle later tonight. Lows
will fall into the lower 50s region-wide.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The upper level pattern begins highly amplified with a sharp ridge
from the eastern GOMEX to Hudson Bay and a deep trough extending
from the northern Plains into central America. Both the GFS and
ECMWF show a low closing off over Texas Monday night and moving
over the northwest gulf on Tuesday. The EURO solution is slightly
faster than the GFS in tracking this feature east-southeastward
over the north-central gulf by 12z Wed. Both solutions keep the
accompanying deep layer moisture and rain west of our CWA through
Tuesday. The faster EURO solution is a bit more robust with rain
overspreading our area Tuesday night. Went with a a blend and
placed 20-30% PoPs mainly west of a line from Tifton, GA to
Apalachicola. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, lows
will range from mid to upper 50s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

While the EURO solution continues to be slightly faster than the
GFS in the handling of the cutoff low, both are in much better
agreement in tracking it to the southeast to near the western tip
of Cuba by Thursday morning/afternoon. This means only a slight
chance (20%) for rain at best for our area on Wednesday. The dry
weather will continue at least through Thursday. Rain chances
return Friday through early Saturday with the approach and
passage of the next "cold" front. Temperatures will continue well
above average, with highs near 80 through Friday and mostly mid to
upper 70s over the weekend. Lows in the mid to upper 50s through
Friday night dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s Saturday
night.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

VFR conditions under a scattered low CU field will prevail for the
remainder of the afternoon. Overnight, LIFR restrictions will be
possible at ECP, lesser so at TLH. Otherwise VFR will prevail
through the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will be low through Monday night as a weak high
pressure system settles over the marine area. Light to moderate
east to southeast winds are expected for much of this week
beginning Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light winds and RH values well above critical thresholds will
prevail for the next few days. As a result, no fire weather hazards
are anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

With only light, rather spotty rain amounts expected for the
upcoming week, rivers will remain well below flood stage.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   52  81  54  81  58 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   56  74  59  76  61 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        51  78  55  79  58 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        49  79  53  80  58 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      51  80  54  80  59 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    51  81  54  81  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  56  73  60  78  61 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Fournier



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