Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 030051
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
751 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Fog will the main concern through the overnight hours. Earlier
this evening, a web cam from Alligator Point confirmed an area of
sea fog offshore. Satellite imagery shows that this area is fairly
expansive across the coastal waters. As winds veer to easterly and
eventually southeasterly late tonight, some of that fog may move
onshore. Elsewhere, additional areas of fog are expected to
develop across inland areas later tonight. Mild overnight lows
in the upper 50s to near 60 are expected.
[Through 00z Wednesday] Fog and low ceilings will be the main
concern overnight. Expect conditions to deteriorate with both
IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities overspreading the area. Only a
gradual improvement is expected through the morning on Tuesday.
.Prev Discussion [430 PM EST]...
.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A building ridge will keep rain chances to our north through most
of the short range period. A cold front will bring a good chance
for rain to our Alabama and Florida panhandle counties starting
primarily on Wednesday night.
High temperatures will be well above average both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Expect upper 70s and lower 80s region-wide. Overnight
lows will be quite mild in the upper 50s. Widespread fog should be
expected each night.
.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
A cold front will bring rain chances to the area on Thursday, with
higher PoP values across Alabama and Georgia. The front will stall
out just to the south of our Gulf waters though clouds will
stick around through most of the period. The cool air behind the
front will keep highs on Friday in the 50s across the region,
however temperatures will rebound quickly as high temperatures are
expected to be in the upper 60s again by Monday. Following the
frontal passage on Thursday, conditions for the remainder of the
period are expected to be cloudy with at least chance of rain each
day due to significant model differences.
Fog will be the primary concern in the near term over our Gulf
waters. Ongoing dense fog covers a large area between 10 to 60
miles offshore. To the east of Apalachicola, fog will continue to
spread south through the first half of the night. Thereafter,
a transition to easterly flow should stop the southerly spread.
West of Apalachicola, where easterly flow will prevail all night,
dense fog should continue all night and spread closer to the
coast. It is likely that the fog will continue through at least
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Afternoon dispersions may be on the high side across the eastern big
bend on Wednesday.
The Ochlockonee River at Havana is forecast to reach minor flood
stage overnight and will crest on Wednesday. The Apalachicola at
Blountstown, Withlacoochee at Valdosta and Ochlockonee at Concord
have all crested and will fall below flood stage by tomorrow
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 59 78 57 80 64 / 10 10 10 20 30
Panama City 59 71 59 71 62 / 10 10 10 30 40
Dothan 58 77 59 77 56 / 20 30 20 30 60
Albany 57 77 58 78 61 / 20 30 10 20 50
Valdosta 59 79 60 82 64 / 10 20 10 10 20
Cross City 59 79 58 80 61 / 10 10 10 10 10
Apalachicola 59 68 59 69 63 / 10 10 10 20 30
GM...Dense Fog Advisory for waters from Destin to the Suwannee
River out to 60 NM through Tuesday morning.