Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240022
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
722 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...

No significant changes were made to the forecast for tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [628 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Any showers that develop this afternoon across western portions of
the Wiregrass region will dwindle during the early evening hours.
Warm and muggy conditions will be common across the region once
again overnight, with temperatures falling into the upper 50s to low
60s for lows. A moistening boundary layer, courtesy of continued low
level southerly flow, dry air at mid-levels and weak winds will
yield patchy fog across much of the tri-state region tonight. The
Suwannee River Valley will likely see more widespread fog, with
dense fog not out of the question late tonight.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep layer ridging over the Southeast will begin breaking down on
Saturday as a trough moves through the central CONUS. Saturday
will likely remain dry as the front and preceding low-level
ascent remains a bit west of the Tri-State region. Highs will
remain in the lower to middle 80s. Saturday night through Sunday
night rain chances will increase with the approach of the
aforementioned frontal system. Expect the best rain chances to be
along and northwest of a line from Fitzgerald, GA through
Apalachicola, FL. At this time, severe weather is not expected to
reach this far east as the most favorable shear and instability
don`t quite line up.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The previously mentioned front will clear the region on Monday,
though some rain will be possible behind the front as another
shortwave moves through the Tennessee Valley. Rain should come to
an end by Tuesday, with a more zonal flow regime dominating aloft
through mid-week. Another frontal system will approach towards the
end of the week bringing rain chances once again on Friday. Expect
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, with only one night of cooler
temps behind the front before lows creep back into the 60s.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...

Mostly VFR CIGs are expected this TAF period with the exception of
VLD where fog will be thicker. Elsewhere mostly MVFR vis is expected
with patchy fog.


.MARINE...

Southeasterly winds tonight will become southerly this weekend with
prevailing seas of 2 to 3 feet or less at least through the middle
of next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions not expected through much of the
next week as RHs will remain above critical thresholds. Chances for
wetting rains will increase Sunday and Monday across the region
before drier conditions resume Tuesday. Dispersions will be
marginally high across portions of the Big Bend on Friday, however,
confidence is low in values exceeding 75 at this time.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall totals over the next week are forecast to vary across the
region, with little to no rain across the southeast Big Bend and
up to an inch across southeast Alabama. Widespread heavy rain is
not expected and flooding is not a concern at this point.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   60  82  63  78  66 /   0   0  20  30  40
Panama City   63  77  67  74  68 /  10  10  20  40  50
Dothan        60  82  64  76  63 /  10  10  20  60  80
Albany        60  83  62  78  64 /   0  10  10  60  60
Valdosta      62  84  62  84  65 /  10  10  10  20  30
Cross City    62  84  64  84  65 /  10   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  63  76  66  73  68 /   0  10  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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