Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
637 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]...

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies and light northerly winds
through the period.



.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level trough will deepen slightly from New England down
into the mid-Atlantic states. This will push a dry cold front into
central Alabama and Georgia by this evening. Locally, deep layer
ridging and a very dry airmass will remain in place with light
northerly winds. After a cool start to the day, max temperatures are
expected to warm into the lower to mid 80s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

But for a weak upper-level short wave trough passing through the
region Tuesday, the forecast area will be dominated by a deep layer
ridge. A rather potent upper-level short wave trough, currently just
off the U.S. west coast, will dive southeastward over the Midwest
on Wednesday. While this system will bring a slight increase in
vertical motion to our forecast area, the strongest forcing will
remain well to the north. Additionally, as is often the case this
time of year, there will be a lack of deep layer moisture, and
forecast PoPs are therefore less than 20%. Daytime temperatures
will be above average, in the mid 80s. However, a weak "backdoor"
cold front will move into the region from the northeast on
Tuesday, essentially squelching the recent warming trend. Lows
will be around 50 tonight, and in the mid to upper 50s Tuesday

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The aforementioned upper-level trough over the Midwest will move
into New England Thursday, bringing an end to the weak Q-G forcing across
our forecast area. The rest of the period will feature a mean
upper ridge over much of the central CONUS and a mean trough over
the east, with multiple short wave troughs diving southeastward
across the eastern CONUS. It appears that our area will remain too
dry and too far to the south for rain chances above 20%.
Temperatures will remain above average, especially during the
daytime, with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s.


With a surface ridge across the area through Tuesday winds and
seas will be low. A stronger ridge will build down the U.S. east
coast beginning Tuesday night, and winds and seas will increase
accordingly. Advisory conditions will be possible at times mid
week, especially overnight and during the morning hours, when the
wind speeds typically peak.


A very dry airmass will remain in place today with min RH values in
the low to mid 20s across the entire tri-state region, except
along the coast. Due to a combination of long durations of low RH
and high ERC values, red flag criteria will likely be met for
Walton, Holmes, and Bay counties in the Florida Panhandle.
Otherwise, there are no other fire weather concerns. Min RH values
are forecast to gradually rise across the area after today.


Our dry October, which is already a dry month to begin with, will
continue this week.



Tallahassee   83  50  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   80  59  82  63  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        82  51  84  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        83  50  84  55  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      82  49  83  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    80  49  82  60  83 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  79  59  80  65  79 /   0   0   0   0   0



FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon to 6 PM
     EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
     Inland Bay-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.




SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Fournier is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.