Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 051037
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
637 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY]...

SCATTERED MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL AFFECT TLH AND VLD FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. BY 12Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT DHN AND THEN ECP. EVENTUALLY, THE STORMS WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT AS LOW AS LIFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RATHER STRONG
WIND GUSTS. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR BY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY PATCHY
CIG AND VIS RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [340 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS AN IMPRESSIVE +PV
ANOMALY THAT PRESENTS VERY WELL ON VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CORE OF THIS
ANOMALY IS PUNCHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH A
WEAKER ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE IS A VERY MESSY
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LITTERED WITH REMNANT COLD POOLS FROM YESTERDAY`S
CONVECTION.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR
TODAY. THERE IS ALREADY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL ANOMALY. AS THE SECOND
ANOMALY SUPERPOSITIONS WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST ANOMALY, A
MUCH LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BETWEEN MS AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL ADVECT EAST IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. AT
THE SAME TIME, AN RIBBON OF +PV WILL BE ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF. THIS ANOMALY WILL PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION BY INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 20-30
KNOTS, COINCIDENT WITH A TONGUE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINATION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE GUSTY TO DAMAGING
WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX, WE MAY BE
ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS. THESE
LATER STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS OR BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS EARLIER CONVECTION.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE BROAD, WEAK 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WILL
GRADUALLY FILL, WITH A WEAK ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED BERMUDA RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH, WEAKENING OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WE STILL EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A WET DAY IN TERMS OF HIGH
POP, AS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. OUR POP IS IN THE 50-60 PERCENT
RANGE, BETWEEN THE MOS CONSENSUS AND ECAM VALUES. ON TUESDAY THE
1000-700 MB MEAN WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL KEEP
THE FL PANHANDLE/BIG BEND SEA BREEZE FRONTS (AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION) PINNED AT THE COAST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY, AND OUR POP IS ONLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH THE REDUCTION IN CLOUDS AND POPS WILL COME WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, REACHING THE MID 90S ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TYPE OF LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN USUALLY CORRELATES WELL WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND BELOW-CLIMO RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

WITH THE BERMUDA SURFACE RIDGE CLOSE BY TO THE SOUTH, THIS WOULD
GENERALLY BE AN EASY FORECAST OF LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR
TODAY AND IT`S A MESOSCALE FEATURE, WHICH ARE CHALLENGING TO
FORECAST. SEVERAL LOCAL AND CONUS-SCALE WRFS BRING A FAIRLY POTENT
GUST FRONT RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH OUR MARINE AREA TODAY. WHILE
THEY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THEIR TIMING
DIFFERS BY A COUPLE TO SEVERAL HOURS, SO WE USED A MIDDLE-GROUND
SOLUTION. THIS MEANS MARINERS CAN EXPECT AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN
WINDS, ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AS THE GUST
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY, MOST OF THE
AMOUNTS WERE HALF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AND MONDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF GETTING 6 INCHES OF
RAIN WITHIN 25 MILES OF A POINT IS 10 PERCENT OR LESS. THE LOCAL
RIVERS CONTINUED BELOW THEIR ACTION STAGES, AND THIS APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  71  91  72  93 /  60  20  60  20  20
PANAMA CITY   87  76  87  76  88 /  80  20  40  20  20
DOTHAN        86  70  89  71  93 /  80  40  50  20  20
ALBANY        84  70  90  72  93 /  70  30  50  20  20
VALDOSTA      91  70  91  71  94 /  60  20  60  20  30
CROSS CITY    92  72  92  72  93 /  60  20  50  20  30
APALACHICOLA  86  74  89  75  90 /  60  20  40  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER


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