Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 290052
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
852 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A NEAR 1.25 INCH PW AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE EAST...WITH A
DECOUPLING NEAR SURFACE WIND FIELD...SHOULD ALLOW MANY SITES TO
COOL INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 60S SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PARTIAL
HIGH CLOUDINESS TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...

AS A DRIER AIR MASS ADVECTS IN FROM THE EAST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A REMOTE
POSSIBILITY OF NEARSHORE EARLY MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ECP`S
VICINITY (MAYBE LAND BREEZE CONVECTION?)...THERE ISN`T ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE WITHIN THIS TAF PACKAGE. A LIGHT EASTERLY
BREEZE AND MAINLY CLEAR (FEW-SCT PM DECKS) THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [403 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE REGION OF DRY AIR, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID
TROPOSPHERE, THAT ORIGINATED IN THE ATLANTIC EARLIER THIS WEEK. THIS
WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS DEEP MOIST CONVECTION, WITH JUST SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF OUR FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE DAY
(HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S), AND LOWS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE (MID TO
UPPER 60S). THE DRIER AIR WILL MAKE IT FEEL A BIT MORE PLEASANT.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

A LARGE 500 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IF FORECAST TO MEANDER
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,
WITH BETTER Q-G FORCING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BY MID WEEK. OUR
DAYTIME POP WILL BE NEAR CLIMO LEVELS SUNDAY (30 PERCENT), THEN IN
THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IT`S POSSIBLE THESE
FORECAST POPS MAY INCREASE, AND THERE COULD BE SOME NON-DIURNAL
CONVECTION, BUT WE WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME PERIOD TO
RESOLVE IMPORTANT TIMING DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO,
WITH LOWS AROUND 70 AND HIGHS AROUND 90.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM EAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF OUR AREA. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER AND MORE FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT, AND LIGHT ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST...
THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO AROUND 40%. A
LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST BREEZE UNDER PARTIALLY CLOUDY SKIES. MORNING
INVERSION WILL LOWER MIXING DEPTHS TO UNDER A THOUSAND FEET...DEPTHS
TO GROW TO OVER 6 THOUSAND FEET AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE
LOWER 90S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GENERALLY...DISPERSION RATES
WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW...HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
FAR NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR FORECAST AREA COUNTIES.


.HYDROLOGY...

HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LEAD TO A RISE ON RIVERS, WITH
SOME APPROACHING ACTION STAGE, PARTICULARLY THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. WITH DRIER AIR EXPECTED STARTING FRIDAY, RIVER FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   67  92  67  92  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   69  84  70  86  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
DOTHAN        67  89  67  90  69 /  20  10   0  10  10
ALBANY        66  90  66  91  70 /  10   0   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      65  90  66  91  69 /   0   0   0  20  20
CROSS CITY    63  91  66  90  69 /   0   0   0  20  20
APALACHICOLA  72  86  71  85  73 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



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