Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 010822
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A deepening surface low over central Kansas early this morning will
track east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley this evening
dragging a southwestward extending cold front with it. The cold
front will still be well to the west of our CWA but leading
showers an isolated thunderstorms will reach mainly our western
zones by late afternoon/early evening. PoPs are tapered
categorical far west to silent 10% for the southeast Big Bend.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s except lower 70s easternmost
zones.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
A cold front will be progressing through the area tonight with
numerous showers across the area. Instability looks limited, so
severe weather is still not expected, although an isolated rumble
of thunder remains possible. Some showers are expected to linger
across the eastern half of the area on Monday morning with
clearing area-wide on Monday afternoon. A light freeze is possible
behind the front for Monday night with high pressure and mostly
sunny skies on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The pattern remains progressive with the next system still on track
to affect the area in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. While
there are still some timing differences in the guidance, the
highest PoPs currently appear to be Wednesday night into Thursday
across the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF have the area of low
pressure staying offshore with warm frontal rain, so instability
looks too low to support any mention of thunder over the land area
at this time. Although another brief cool down is expected behind
this system, there doesn`t appear to be any arctic air on the
horizon for the next several days.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Monday] Clouds will increase with cigs possibly
lowering to IFR levels at DHN around daybreak and spreading
eastward to eventually include the remainder of the terminals by
late afternoon/early evening. Light rain will also overspread the
region today and tonight with a few thunderstorms possible mainly
at the DHN and ECP terminals. Winds will be gusty and southerly
today.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory conditions are likely through Monday both ahead of and
behind a cold front across most of the area. Strong southerly
winds ahead of the front today will shift to the northwest behind
the front on Monday with seas of 5 to 7 feet across most of the
area. Some improvement is expected for Tuesday before another
increase in winds and seas is possible by mid to late week as
another area of low pressure moves through the region.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected at least through the upcoming
workweek.

&&

.Hydrology...
The first system for this afternoon through Monday morning is
expected to produce mainly less than 1" of rain across the area,
although a couple of isolated amounts heavier than 1" are possible
across portions of southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

The second system during the Wednesday-Thursday time frame is
expected to produce a bit more rainfall with a general 1-2"
possible. When combined with the rains from the first system and
already above average stream flows, a few rivers may approach minor
flood stage late in the week. At this time, the progressive nature
of the pattern is expected to keep rainfall amounts from getting
high enough to produce more significant flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  57  61  31  58 /  20  80  40   0   0
Panama City   66  54  58  35  55 /  60  90  30   0   0
Dothan        66  48  51  30  55 /  70  90  20   0   0
Albany        68  52  55  29  54 /  30  90  30   0   0
Valdosta      72  57  60  32  57 /  20  80  50   0   0
Cross City    72  60  63  31  61 /  10  60  60   0   0
Apalachicola  66  59  62  35  55 /  30  80  40   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through Monday evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD





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