Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 280015
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
815 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...

No significant changes to the previous forecast below appear
necessary. Dry conditions are expected overnight with areas of fog
developing.

&&

.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Wednesday] Areas of fog are expected to develop
overnight through the early morning with TLH, DHN, and ECP most
likely to see LIFR conditions. Shortly after sunrise, areas of fog
are expected to dissipate and VFR conditions will prevail through
the remainder of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [352 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level shortwave trough axis will move northeastward across
our area later this afternoon through the evening. At the surface, a
weakening area of low pressure will move northeastward through the
mid-Mississippi Valley region, and a broad area of high pressure
will remain in place to our east. Between these features, light
southerly flow will continue over our area. Through the rest of this
afternoon and early evening, the aforementioned upper shortwave
could provide enough forcing for a few showers and thunderstorms,
though dry air at mid-levels and modest instability (CAPE generally
near or less than 1000 J/kg) will limit potential for showers and
storms. Therefore, maintained slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms inland through the early evening hours, and after 00Z
dry conditions are expected. Areas of fog will be possible overnight
through the early morning hours as the boundary layer remains moist
and winds become light to calm across our area. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 50s across the FL Big Bend and south central GA
to mid 60s along coastal regions of the FL Panhandle.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

A weak cold front north of the CWA will allow for a few showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday mainly across the western portions of the
CWA. Instability is limited tomorrow with CAPE only around 200-400
J/kg, but still enough for an isolated thunderstorm. The front will
remain north of the area and move eastward Tuesday night as the main
low shifts into the Atlantic.  As this occurs, upper level ridging
builds in and persists into Wednesday, helping to minimize
convection in the short term. Above average highs in the low to mid
80s will increase into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday as the upper
ridge builds in. The high at TLH on Wednesday will be around 3
degrees below the record high. Lows will range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

While conditions have been dry lately, widespread precipitation is
expected Thursday night into Friday as a low moving across the
Mid-West into the Tennessee Valley pushes a cold front through the
CWA. GFS depicts MUCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg with 50kts of deep layer
shear and 20-25kts of low level shear will need to closely monitor
the severe weather potential with this system as it draws closer.
The area will dry out for the weekend.


.MARINE...

Winds and seas will be light through much of the week, but will
increase for Thursday night and Friday to cautionary levels as a
cold front moves through.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several
days with relative humidity values remaining above critical
levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

The next chance for widespread rainfall will be Thursday night and
Friday. Rainfall amounts of two inches or less are forecast with
the higher amounts across the western portion of the area. At this
time, significant flooding impacts are not expected based on these
amounts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   59  83  58  86  57 /  10  10   0   0   0
Panama City   65  74  63  77  62 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dothan        62  81  61  86  59 /  10  20   0   0   0
Albany        62  83  62  87  60 /  10  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      59  83  59  87  59 /  10  10   0  10  10
Cross City    57  82  56  85  56 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  76  61  77  61 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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