Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTAE 241737
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period outside
of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorms will be
most prevalent through mid- to late afternoon today and again by
late morning Tuesday at KTLH and KECP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1008 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Moist west-southwest flow will be in place today with a weak mid-
level trough stretching northeast to southwest just north of the
region. KTAE 12Z sounding indicates PWAT over 2 inches, with
1000-700mb flow over 15 knots. This is generally a favorable
pattern for high PoPs across the forecast area. This is born out
with radar this morning, as there is plenty of activity ongoing
along the panhandle coast. Sunshine is plentiful over inland
areas, so expect activity to spread inland by late morning, and
continue to push into Alabama and Georgia by early afternoon.
Overall, PoP forecast is in good shape. However, have upped the
rain chances right along the coast to reflect ongoing convection.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels a shortwave trough over the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic will move out on Tuesday. At the surface a low just off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move out with the trailing cold front
lingering behind near the Carolinas. Nocturnal convection near the
coast will continue to bring an early start to showers and
thunderstorms over the region. Storms will start early in the
morning near the coast with activity moving inland and increasing
in the late morning and afternoon hours. POPs will be 50 to 65
percent for most of the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs
will be around 90 with cloud cover expected most or all of the
daytime. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

In the upper levels a trough will be over the Southeast by Friday.
At the surface a weak pressure gradient will be over the region.
Over the weekend a low may develop near the Carolinas. POPs will
be mainly in the 40 to 50 percent range in the daytime and near 30
percent at night. Highs will be in the low 90s. Lows will be in
the mid 70s.


.MARINE...

Expect light to moderate westerly or southwesterly winds through
the workweek. The wet pattern will continue with scattered showers
and thunderstorms this week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

A wetter than usual pattern will continue for the next several days.
However, storms are still expected to be scattered in nature. Thus,
expect widespread average rain amounts through the week on the order
of 1-3 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible in locations
receiving storms each day. At this time river flooding is not
anticipated, with the typical threat for isolated urban flooding
under slow moving storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  90  74  91  74 /  20  50  30  60  20
Panama City   78  88  77  89  77 /  40  40  40  50  20
Dothan        74  89  73  90  74 /  30  60  30  50  20
Albany        74  90  74  91  74 /  30  60  30  60  20
Valdosta      74  90  73  90  73 /  20  60  30  70  20
Cross City    75  91  74  91  74 /  30  50  20  50  20
Apalachicola  77  89  76  89  76 /  30  40  40  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...McDermott
LONG TERM...McDermott
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...McDermott
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.