Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 211449
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
949 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast for
today. Showers formed over the Gulf as expected and are still
expected to spread inland this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [639 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The inverted trough that moved into the eastern Gulf this evening
continues to move west across the northeast Gulf this morning. Some
showers have developed along the convergent leading edge of the
trough along and just offshore of the western Big Bend coast. As an
upper-level shortwave in the central Gulf this morning moves
eastward across the region today, expect the westward progress of
the surface trough to cease. The surface feature will link up with
the upper wave, strengthen, and gradually move back to the northeast
through today. As the trough deepens inland with the passage of the
upper wave, expect isentropic ascent to strengthen and spread inland
as well. While the more scattered moderate to heavier rain will
continue to be focused on the trough`s leading edge (over the
Apalachicola and Chattahoochee Rivers), light rain will fill in
further eastward through the afternoon. Expect afternoon highs to
peat in the upper 60s west of the aforementioned river boundary, and
in the lower 70s to the east.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Active weather will continue through the short term period, with
ongoing showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms expected to be
ongoing this evening across much of the Tri-State region. This is
courtesy of a developing surface low over the northeast Gulf of
Mexico, associated with a passing upper level shortwave trough, the
first in a series of shortwave troughs expected to traverse the
region through the end of the weekend. The second shortwave trough
and associated surface low will generate more widespread showers
across the region, with the best chances existing across the eastern
FL Panhandle/Big Bend through south central GA Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. Severe weather is not expected with either
system, as instability will remain modest at best and shear weak.
Modest PWAT values through the period will limit rainfall efficacy,
thus lowering the flood threat. In all, a general 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall accumulation can be expected through Thursday morning,
mainly across the aforementioned areas. Other locales in the tri-
state region can expect accumulations to generally remain less than
1 inch.

Temperatures will remain near average for highs through the period,
with upper 60s to low 70s expected. Overnight lows will remain
elevated due to cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, with
readings in the 50s expected.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Conditions will gradually clear across the region Thanksgiving day,
giving way to drier and slightly cooler conditions for the remainder
of the week and through the weekend. Near average temperatures will
persist through much of the period, as the overall upper level
pattern will remain stagnant, with ridging across the west and
troughing over the eastern CONUS. The latest operational model
guidance indicates the potential for another cold front to sweep
across the region late this weekend, but differences on how much of
a cool down would occur from model to model remain at this time.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

VFR low/mid level cloudiness filled in overnight across much of
the region, over the past couple of hours a few sprinkles and MVFR
ceilings began to impact ECP and the Panhandle coast. Light rain
will spread inland and fill in to the east through the afternoon.
As it does so, ceilings will fall into MVFR restrictions at our
remaining terminals.


.MARINE...

Easterly winds between 10 and 15 knots will prevail through today,
with resultant seas of 2 to 3 feet. Winds will shift to the
northeast from west to east beginning late this afternoon through
Wednesday morning, as a weak low pressure system moves across the
area. Wind speeds are expected to remain above 10 knots through the
remainder of the period, with cautionary conditions possible across
western waters Wednesday night.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days, with rain in the forecast through Thursday night.


.HYDROLOGY...

In all, a general 1 to 2 inches of rainfall accumulation can be
expected through Thursday morning, mainly across the eastern FL
Panhandle and Big Bend through south central GA. Other locales in
the tri-state region can expect accumulations to generally remain
less than 1 inch. Drier conditions are expected to resume by this
weekend.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  56  71  56  67 /  40  30  30  70  40
Panama City   69  55  71  54  67 /  50  10  20  40  20
Dothan        67  51  69  49  66 /  30  10  20  40  10
Albany        72  54  70  52  65 /  30  40  20  70  30
Valdosta      73  56  72  55  64 /  40  40  40  70  60
Cross City    73  56  74  58  70 /  60  40  40  70  60
Apalachicola  71  58  72  56  69 /  60  30  30  70  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Pullin


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