Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 170006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
706 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017


The forecast below is in good shape and no updates are planned for
this evening. Isolated shower activity that was ongoing along the
Florida Panhandle coast earlier this afternoon continues to
diminish at this hour.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Upper level ridging will continue across the area through the
overnight hours with surface high pressure centered east of the area
and light southeasterly flow at the surface. A warm airmass will
remain in place with overnight lows generally in the middle 50s.
Some patchy fog is possible late tonight.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

A broad, low amplitude upper level ridge will remain over our
region throughout this period, along with light southerly flow at
lower levels. This pattern will gradually increase moisture across
our area, especially west of Tallahassee where PWAT values will
rise to 1.0-1.5" for much of Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result of
the increasing moisture and some modest isentropic lift, slight
chances of rain will be present each day, mainly across the
Florida Panhandle and SE Alabama. Temperatures will remain
unseasonably mild, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Continued unseasonably mild temperatures and increasingly active
weather will impact our region late this week through the weekend,
as a powerful longwave upper level trough moves from west to east
across the southern tier of the CONUS. On the leading edge of this
trough, an upper shortwave will move northeastward through the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley region on Thursday
night. This feature will enhance rainfall chances across our area,
especially north and west of Tallahassee. On Friday, deep layer
moisture will remain present under southerly flow and the nose of
an upper jet streak will push eastward into our area, providing
continued chances of showers through the day. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible, with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE
developing by the afternoon.

On Saturday, an increasingly strong mid-level jet will develop
across the northern Gulf Coast region and push eastward into our
area during the afternoon and nighttime hours. By the evening, the
GFS currently shows 0-6 km bulk shear values increasing to at
least 60 kts across much of our area. Instability will continue to
build as well, with SBCAPE possibly reaching 1000-2000 J/kg across
our western areas during the afternoon and through the night. As
a result, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from
Saturday afternoon and night, with the caveat that this event is
still several days out and large shifts in the models could still

The main trough axis looks likely to push eastward into our area
from Sunday through Sunday night, and a large, powerful area of
low pressure at the surface looks likely to develop to our north
and west. The ECMWF and GFS are in fairly good agreement that this
feature will be centered near Oklahoma or southern Missouri on
Sunday morning with a minimum MSLP around 990 mb, but will have a
very large circulation with its southeastern flank stretching down
to the Gulf Coast. As the low intensifies and moves northeastward,
our area will remain in the `warm sector` throughout the day until
a powerful cold front moves through (models are currently showing
the frontal passage on Sunday evening). Before this occurs,
strong to severe thunderstorms could develop once again. The
leading edge of a powerful mid-level jet will move into our area
(latest GFS shows over 100 kts at 500 mb to our west over the
northern Gulf, over 80 kts in our area Sunday at 18Z), resulting
in very high bulk shear values. Ample instability should also
develop by this time, possibly exceeding 1000 J/kg over much of
our area.

Again, this potential event is far enough out that significant
uncertainty remains, but if this setup verifies there would be the
potential for severe weather across much of our area over the
weekend. Once the cold front moves to our east, relatively cooler
and drier air is expected move into our area on Monday.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

VFR this evening. Overnight, patchy fog is possible at all sites
with the exception of ECP. Highs clouds will stream across through
much of the overnight hours and strengthening low level winds may
prohibit IFR and below conds except at VLD where IFR conds in
cigs/vsbys is possible due to lighter low level winds. VFR conds
at all sites aft 14Z with light southerly winds Tuesday.


Winds from 10 to 15 kts will prevail through Thursday, with seas
of 2 to 3 feet or less. A slight increase in winds and seas is
expected from Thursday night through Saturday, along with an
increase in chances of showers and thunderstorms.


Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


Rain chances will increase late this week, and periods of
moderate/heavy rain will be possible from Thursday night through
the weekend. Flooding is not anticipated through the next few
days, but flood potential may need to be monitored by the weekend.



Tallahassee   54  77  56  77  58 /   0  10  10  10  10
Panama City   60  73  62  72  62 /   0  20  10  20  20
Dothan        56  77  59  76  59 /   0  20  10  20  10
Albany        54  79  58  76  57 /   0  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      55  78  55  77  57 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    54  78  53  77  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  59  72  60  72  61 /   0  10  10  20  20






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