Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 011107
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
707 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND DROPS INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. 1006MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SE TODAY...BUT REMAIN N OF THE
LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...WHICH
WILL KEEP THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STABLE. GIVEN THIS...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES OF 16-18C SHOULD SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A MODEST REPRIEVE IN HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY INLAND AS DEWPOINTS DROP TO 60-65F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERALL...THE 00Z/01
NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO SHOWERS/TSTMS ACCOMPANYING
THE BOUNDARY...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE EITHER DRY OR INDICATE ONLY
ISO ACTIVITY. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL W OF THE REGION...SO WILL ONLY FORECAST A 20% POP WITH
THE BOUNDARY. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE REGION THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN NC AS ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER WAVE LOCATES OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY. 20-30% POPS THURSDAY MORNING INCREASE TO 40-50% POPS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC...THEN TO ~60%
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
2+ INCHES THURSDAY NIGHT IN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
IN CONCERT WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-MS VALLEY LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIKELY POPS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL (UP TO 600% OF NORMAL THIS PAST
WEEK)...MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CONTINUES TO BE HEADLINED
IN THE HWO. 72 HR RAINFALL TOTALS AVERAGE BETWEEN 1.0-1.5
IN...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED.

FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREA GENERALLY ON THE LOW-SIDE
OF GUIDANCE AS MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE ANY
PERIODS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. HIGHS THURSDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
NW...TO THE UPPER 80S SE...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S NW...TO THE MID 80S FAR SE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPSTREAM BLOCKING PATTERN RESULTS IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF OVERALL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THRU THE HOLIDAY WKEND / MED RANGE PERIOD.

MODELS STALL WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC REGION SAT.
GFS WANTS TO PUSH THIS BNDRY INTO NORTH CAROLINA SUN AS WEAK HIGH
PRS BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WHILE ECMWF KEEPS THE
BNDRY NEARLY STNRY ACROSS THE RGN. THE BNDRY PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRNT MONDAY WITH A TROF LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
THUS LOOK FOR CHC POPS EACH DAY AS TIMING OF ANY ONE DISTURBANCE
RATHER PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT.

HIGHS SAT / SUN IN THE M-U80S...85-90 MON / TUE. LOWS U60S-M70S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR THRU THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. S/SW FLOW ~10 KT CONTINUES TDA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. EXPECT MAINLY HI CLOUDS...WITH
SHRAS/TSTMS PSBL THIS AFTN/EVENG THOUGH CHANCES ARE NOT HI ENUF TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...A FRONTAL SYSTM WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THU AND LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENG SHRAS/TSTMS EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES THU NIGHT AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OVER THE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU 7 AM AS WINDS THERE CONTINUE
TO GUST TO ~20-25 KT ERLY THIS MORNG. WINDS WILL THEN RELAX THRU THE
DAY AS A COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE NW. EXPECT 10-15 KT S WINDS
THIS AFTN WITH 1-2 FT WAVES OVER THE BAY AND 2-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL
WTRS. THE FRNT DROPS INTO THE AREA FM THE NW ON THU...WITH WINDS
BCMG LIGHT AND VRB AS THE FRNT STALLS AND REMAINS IN THE VICINITY
THRU FRI. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT AND SEAS AVG 2-4 FT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SUB-SCA CONDS CONTINUING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/SAM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/SAM
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...MAS


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