Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 240931
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
431 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lifts northeast just off the New England coast
today into Wednesday morning. A ridge of high pressure will
build into the area tonight, then slides off the coast during
Wednesday. A cold front crosses the region Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning, strong low pressure was cntrd just off the
NJ coast. That low will slowly pull away to the northeast just
off the srn New England coast during today. As a result, chances
for rain and deeper low level moisture will gradually lift away
to the east northeast, with increasing sunshine fm the WSW.
Highs will range fm the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper/sfc ridge axis builds into the area tngt into Wed
morning, resulting in a clear sky and lows ranging fm the mid
to upper 30s inland, to the lower 40s over extrm SE VA and
coastal NE NC. Ridge axis slides offshore during Wed, as the
next upper trough approaches fm the west. An associated cold
front is progged to reach the central Appalachians late Wed.
Return flow will push highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s
(approaching upper 60s inland). Clouds increase late Wed and
Wed evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Spatial and
timing differences exist, but general model consensus pushes the
front through the region Thu morning. A potent shortwave
accompanies the front along with a narrow band of high
precipitable waters, so now have pops 30-60% with the highest
pops over srn and ern third of the region. Front quickly pushes
offshore Thu aftn, with dry conditions expected area wide
during the aftn. Milder Thu morning with lows in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Becoming partly to mostly sunny Thu with highs
ranging fm the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to enter the region
Wednesday night and into Thursday as a surface cold front slides
into the area. Moisture still appears somewhat limited as the front
crosses the region Thursday morning. Continuing to lean closer to a
drier solution with the highest precipitation chances confined to
far southeast portions of the area Thursday morning.

Behind the cold frontal passage Thursday morning, an upper level
trough builds into the eastern half of the US allowing for northwest
flow to dominate the forecast period. Temperatures will return to
more seasonable values by Friday and continue through Monday. Highs
will generally be in the low/mid 40s with lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s through this period. The positive tilt configuration of
the upper level trough will allow for high pressure to build in from
the south and suppress precipitation chances through Sunday. Models
are hinting at a reinforcing cold front passing through the region
on Monday, but it appears as though moisture will be limited with
this system.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong low pressure just off the srn NJ coast will lift
northeast just off the New England coast today into Wed morning.
Expect IFR/MVFR cigs at the TAF sites thru at least this
morning, as the low will be slow to move away to the northeast.
Cigs will lift to VFR by noon today at RIC and ECG, and
gradually improve to VFR cigs at ORF/PHF this aftn or by late
this aftn at SBY. Sctd showers will gradually end fm WSW to ENE
this morning thru this aftn, ending last at SBY. A ridge of high
pressure builds in fm the west this evening/tngt with VFR
conditions taking over.

OUTLOOK...The ridge of high pressure slides acrs the area and
off the coast during Wed. Then, there will be a chance for
showers late Wed night thru Thu morning associated with a cold
front moving acrs the region. Dry conditions expected for Thu
aftn thru Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pres moves slowly NE along the NJ coast to just SW of Cape
Cod by late today. Meanwhile, hi pres begins to build into the
mid-Atlantic region from the NW. The NNW will average 15-25kt
(gusts to 25-30kt) into this afternoon. All headlines (SCAs)
remaining in place. Seas will be slow to subside into tonight
and may not drop below 5 ft until early Wed.

Hi pres gradually builds into the region tonight and slides
offshore Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This cold front
crosses the coast later Wed night into early Thu. Hi pres
builds in from the W Thu night into Fri.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High surf advisories remain up until 18Z/24 as nearshore waves
will be slow to fall below 8 ft along the Atlantic Beaches.

Minor tidal flooding is expected invof Ocean City early this
morning. Have added areas for minor tidal flooding (and raised a
coastal flooding advisory) near the lower Ches Bay and adjacent
York/James Rivers through early/mid morning hours. Minor coastal
flooding also expected invof eastern shore along the Ches Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MDZ025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MDZ024-
     025.
NC...High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VAZ089-
     090-093-099-100-524.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for VAZ084-
     086-095>098-523-525.
     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ654-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ALB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



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