Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290034
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
734 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN RETURNS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1024 MB HI PRES CENTERED NR THE OH/WV
BORDER. ALOFT...A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPR-LEVEL TROF IS PUSHING OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD WITH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE SFC HI
SLIDES E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TNGT...ALLOWING FOR THE CLEAR SKIES
TO CONTINUE. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 10-20 MPH THIS AFTN/EVENG WILL
DIMINISH OVRNGT SO WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LO AS LAST NIGHT
DESPITE COLDER TEMPS. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR
30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDS WITH CONTINUED BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. SLY FLOW RETURNS THU AFTN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRNT WHICH CROSSES THE REGION THU NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS
THRU THE DAY WITH HI TEMPS RANGING FM THE LWR 40S N TO UPR 40S S.
MAINTAINED A LO CHANCE FOR RA (20-30% POPS) LATE THU AFTN FOR
AREAS N AND W OF RIC...CONTINUING TO AREAS N OF I-64 THU NIGHT AS
THE FRNT MOVES THRU. DESPITE DECENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING HENCE THE LO POPS. PTYPE IS RA THU AFTN/EVENG
TRANSITIONING TO POTENTIALLY SOME IP/SN MIXED IN OVRNGT. NO BIG
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED WITH VERY LITTLE QPF EXPECTED. HI PRES THEN
SLOWLY BLDS IN FM THE W FRI LEADING TO DRY CONDS...DECREASING
CLOUDS...AND HI TEMPS IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S. CONTINUED DRY WX
INTO SAT UNDER A SUNNY-MSTLY SUNNY SKY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALONG WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT 12Z MODEL CHANGES
MAKES THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUN INTO MON. GFS MUCH FASTER
IN BRINGING PCPN ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGN SUNDAY THAN BOTH THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN. THE QUICKER GFS SOLN WOULD LEAD TO P-TYPE ISSUES
ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS SUNDAY WHILE THE SLOWER SOLNS WUD MAINLY BE
RAIN (OR A RAIN WET SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH) IN THE AFTRN.
CONVERSELY...THE GFS IS QUICKER TO END PCPN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE
THE SLOWER SOLNS KEEP PCPN GOING FOR THE BETTER PART OF MON WITH
COLDER AIR OOZING SOUTH.

WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...TRIED TO BLEND THE FORECAST AS MUCH AS PSBL
KNOWING THAT LATER MODEL RUNS SHOULD SHED BETTER LIGHT ON THE SYSTM.
DRY AND COLD SAT NIGHT WITH INCRG CLDNS. LOWS IN THE 20S XCPT L30S
SERN CSTL AREAS. KEPT A BIT OF FCST CONTINUITY AND BROUGHT LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS WRN CNTYS SUNDAY MORNING. THICKNESSES SUGGEST SOME SLEET
PSBL AT THE START ACROSS NWRN MOST CNTYS WITH RAIN OVRSPRDG THE FA
SUNDAY AFTRN AS THE LOW PRS TRACKS ACROSS NRN VA. HIGHS IN THE 40S
AS THE COLD AIR LURKS JUST NORTH OF THE FA. LIKELY RAIN SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FA...BUT LWRD TO CHC POPS AFTR MIDNIGHT. KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS LATE AS THE PCPN ENDS. ANY P TYPE
ISSUES WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH CAN
COME SOUTH BEFORE PCPN ENDS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 30S TO NR 40
ACROSS NC NE CNTYS NR THE ALBEMARLE SND.

SPLIT MONDAYS FCST UP INTO 2 SEGMENTS AS WELL. CHC RAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF I95 IN THE MORNING...DRYING IT OUT IN THE AFTRN AS THE
TRAILING FRNT CLRS THE COAST. COULD EVEN SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE LWR MD ERN SHORE ERLY MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE U30S N TO M-U40S S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT THRU TUES NIGHT.
LOWS MON NITE UTEENS TO U20S. HIGHS TUE IN THE 30S. LOWS TUE NIGHT
IN THE 20S TO NR 30.

YET ANTHR MOIST SRN STREAM SYSTM PROGGED TO COME OUT OF THE GULF
COAST STATES AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SERN COAST WED. THIS SYTM BEARS
WATCHING AS THE COLD AIR MAY BE HARDER TO DISLODGE. WENT WITH CHC
POPS (LIQUID) FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 40-45.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT RESULTING IN A CLEAR SKY AND CALM TO VERY LIGHT WIND. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA ALONG AND N OF A RIC-SBY LINE...AND PERHAPS
PCPN ENDING AS A MIX OF -RASN AT SBY. A GUSTY NW WIND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THAT AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MORE MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CRNT SCA`S CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS SCNDRY CAA SURGE SEEN IN THE
DATA THIS EVENING. SEAS STILL AOA 5 FT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SUBSIDE
AFTR MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.

ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF "SUB SCA" CNDTNS XPCTD THU BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTM APPRCHS FROM THE WEST. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME SOUTH THU AS HIGH
PRS MOVES OFF THE COAST...THEN SW AS A WRM FRNT BRIEFLY LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A STRNG CDFRNT ERLY FRI MORNING. WILL
LIKELY SEE SCA`S FOR THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT.

CTRNG CAA PROGGED BEHIND THE CD FRNT FRI INTO SAT. WNDS BECOME NW
AND INCRS INTO THE GALE RANGE. DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 40-45 KTS
ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS (HIGHEST NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISL) WITH 35 KTS
GUSTS IN THE CHES BAY. GIVEN TMPS FALLING BLO 30 DEGREES...FREEZING
SPRAY REMAINS IN FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZING SPRAY
ADVSRY ACROSS NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE AIR TMPS IN THE L20S ARE XPCTD.
SEAS/WAVES QUICKLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE GUSTY WINDS. SEAS AVG
7-10 FT WITH WAVES 4-5 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.

CNDTNS BEGIN TO IMPROVE SAT NIGHT AS THE CANADIAN HIGH TRACKS OVR
THE RGN. NXT SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO TRACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUN INTO MON. WILL LIKELY SEE ANTHR ROUND OF SCA`S
WITH THIS SYSTM.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AJZ/DAP
MARINE...MPR





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