Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AFTER PICKING UP AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES AROUND
BLACKSTONE AND CREWE THIS MORNING...RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE
SHOWING A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO STARTING TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN AREAS WHERE SNOW FELL
EARLIER. SOME OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST NC ARE REPORTING
LIGHT RAIN SO WILL ADD JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
THROUGH 18Z THERE. OVERALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS
WHERE SKIES WERE SUNNY THIS MORNING (ESPECIALLY N) AS LOW- LEVEL
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH A SECONDARY VORT MAX TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD CU/SC. ISOLATED -SHRA...AND POSSIBLY A MIX OF
-SHRA/SHSN COULD PASS NEAR OCEAN CITY...BUT IT APPEARS MOST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH ACROSS DELAWARE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...NEARLY -2 ST DEV...AND
RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S N...TO MID/UPPER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANY LINGERING -SHRA/SHSN SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE SKY
SHOULD CLEAR FROM SW-NE...WITH MOST OF THE AREA BECOMING CLEAR
ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL BAND OF SC OFF THE BAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 20S...WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE COASTS
OF SE VA/NE NC. CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE NOT RECORDS...BUT COULD
BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DECOUPLING OCCURS. RECORD VALUES
ARE LISTED BELOW IN THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR REFERENCE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY...SUNNY...AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT NW
WIND BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON. LIMITED MIXING WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST...TO THE
LOW/MID 50S OVER INTERIOR VA/NE NC.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO
THERE IS ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY FOR -SHRA (~20% OVER WRN
PORTIONS). THE BOUNDARY DROPS S OF THE REGION EARLY MONDAY WITH
DEEP LAYERED WSW FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY BY
AFTERNOON. IMPROVED MIXING AND MORE SUN WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 60S E...TO MID/UPPER 60S W. THIS WILL BE
AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN PREVAILS THRU THE EXTENDED...AS NRN STREAM
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE. THE FIRST NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
COAST LATE MON NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE REACHING THE OH VALLEY
LATE TUES. ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE STATES.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE NRN STREAM LOW...WITH THE 27/12Z GFS LIFTING IT THRU NE...THE
27/12Z ECMWF THRU THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE 27/12Z CMC
THRU NC. BASED ON THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...PREFER THE NRN TRACK...KEEPING THE FA DRY. ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION TUES NIGHT-WEDS. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND LITTLE APPRECIABLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN CONUS WEDS.
THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE HANDLING OF A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF STATES WEDS-WEDS NIGHT.
GFS QUICKER TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATES OFF THE SE COAST WEDS-WEDS NIGHT...WHILE ITS ECMWF AND CMC
COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOWER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. THEREAFTER...THE
NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM PROGGED TO REACH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE FRONT THRU 18
HRS BEFORE THE ECMWF (FRI VS. SAT MORNING). WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
CHANCE POPS BEGINNING THURS. WILL CARRY LOW END CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRI...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONABLE
NORMS...IN THE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ERN SHORE AND
COASTAL AREAS. THURS HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP. HAVE OPTED FOR A BLEND...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND AND LOW-MID 60S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION SUNDAY.

SCT-BKN SC/CU DUE TO COLD AIR AT AROUND 6K FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD CLEAR NEAR SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING ENDS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SLGT TO LOW
CHC FOR SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS DEVELOPING LO PRES OFF THE VA/NC CST
WITH HI PRES OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. WINDS ARE STARTING
TO PICK UP THIS MORNG OVER THE LOCAL WTRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CAA
BEHIND THE OFFSHORE LO. FOR TDA INTO TNGT...EXPECT WINDS INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE BAY/OCEAN...AND 15-25
KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS AND SOUND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVER MOST WTRS THRU SUN MORN/MIDDAY UNTIL HI PRESS FINALLY BLDS OVER
THE WATERS. WAVES GENERALLY 3-4 FT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. NW WINDS SUBSIDE
TO 10-15 KT SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 5 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PASSES OVER THE REGION SUN...AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT. FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SSW. THE NEXT (WEAK) COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE SUN. SW FLOW INCREASES LATE SUN
NIGHT...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BASED ON
WAA AND COLD WATER...CONFIDENCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IS NOT HI
ATTM...AND WILL AVOID ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW ALSO WITH THE CURRENT
HEADLINES OUT. VERY LITTLE CAA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE SUN NIGHT-
MON MORNING SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THEN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY 3/29:

RIC...22/1923
ORF...25/1982
SBY...18/1923
ECG...24/1982

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ/JAO
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...MAS
CLIMATE...


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