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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 070939
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
439 AM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~1034 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
SE NEW ENGLAND WEDGING SOUTH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ALONG THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. TO THE SOUTH, ~1005MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED NEAR ILM AT 09Z. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOW
A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING NE FROM NW SC TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA. EARLY MORNING 06Z SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO NC (GSO)
SHOWING A PROMINENT WARM NOSE ~H9...HOWEVER NAM AND 06Z RAP SEEM
A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THIS FEATURE (MORE ON THAT IN A MINUTE).

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT MAKING INROADS INTO
EASTERN NC, WHICH IS EATING INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RAIN
SHIELD. AS EXPECTED, BEST FORCING HAS REMAINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
WITH PRECIP MAKING ONLY VERY SLOW PROGRESS ENCROACHING UPON
CENTRAL VA ZONES. FOR P-TYPE, WE`VE SLOWED THE CHANGEOVER JUST A
BIT AS PER TOP-DOWN TOOLS. OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THINKING HAS OCCURRED SINCE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SFC WET BULB 32 F
LINE ESSENTIALLY ALONG I-85 AND NORTH THROUGH THE TRI- CITIES/RIC
TO KING WILLIAM AND TAPPAHANNOCK. THIS LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS, BECOMING ALIGNED
FROM ABOUT TAPPAHANNOCK TO RICHMOND AIRPORT TO BOYDTON BY 7AM.
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FZRA...AND EVENTUALLY RAIN...WILL BE
QUICK EAST OF THIS LINE. MEANWHILE, AREAS N/W OF THIS LINE WILL
SEE A MUCH SLOWER TRANSITION THAT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A FARMVILLE- GOOCHLAND- BEAVERDAM LINE.
MIXED PCPN OVER THE NWRN COUNTIES EVENTUALLY BECOMES ALL RAIN BY
AROUND NOON (ALTHOUGH COULD SEE FLUVANNA/LOUISA TAKING A BIT
LONGER OUT NEAR HIGHWAY 15) AS TEMPS SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
ADDED SOME MDT (POSSIBLY HVY AT TIMES) RAIN TO THE GRIDS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN ACROSS SERN HALF OF FA WHERE BEST
FORCING PIVOTS ACROSS. HIGHS FROM THE MID 30S WRN PIEDMONT TO NR
50 SERN COASTAL AREAS.


ADDITIONALLY, A WIND ADVISORY NOW IN PLACE FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...THE COASTAL TIDEWATER REGION (INCLUDING NORFOLK
AND VIRGINIA BEACH)...AND THE VA LOWER EASTERN SHORE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. MSAS SHOWING PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR 70 UBARS/KM
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC CRYSTAL COAST REGION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF A STRONG AND VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, WHICH WILL SLIDE NE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH TODAY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AS THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS UP THE
CAROLINA COAST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OUT TO SEA. THIS
PORTENTS TO A BREEZY DAY INLAND (15-20 G 30 MPH) WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREAS WILL BE N-NE AT 30-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE
STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST ONE IS ONGOING
NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ALONG SE COAST. THE SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z (4-7PM EST). WE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO PEAK ABOVE 50 KT/58 MPH
DURING THE SECOND SURGE OF WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORFOLK/VA
BEACH TO CURRITUCK. WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW WINDS DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE HOISTING A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS, BUT THAT IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY. DUE TO THE N-NE WIND DIRECTION...THE HAMPTON ROADS
AREA MAY END UP IN THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING. HAVE
KEPT THIS AREA OUT OF THE WIND ADVISORY ATTM DUE TO A VERY SHALLOW
INSTABILITY LAYER BEING DEPICTED IN MODEL CROSS SECTIONS...WHICH
IS MAINLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN AND A
VERY LOW STRATUS DECK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

LOW PRS PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE NIGHT. PCPN ENDS W-E WITH
DCRG CLDNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WRN AREAS. LOWS IN THE L-M30S EXCEPT
U30S- L40S SERN COASTAL AREAS.

WEAK HIGH PRS BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. EXPECT PT TO MSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TMPS. H85 TMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY...L-M50S ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION LATE SAT NGT THROUGH SUN MRNG.
MOISTURE LIMITED SO CONFINED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MOST
COUNTYS. LOWS 35-40. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND A BIT COOLER
SUNDAY. HIGHS U40-M50S INVOF THE WATER...U50S-L60S WEST OF THE BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GOING GENERALLY WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT ON THE
LOCATION...MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF LO PRES ACRS THE AREA WED THRU
THU. DRY WX WITH ABV NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED MON AND TUE...AS WSW
FLO SHOULD HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MON...AND INTO THE MID
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ON TUE. LO PRES WILL THEN RESULT IN CHC FOR
SHOWERS OR RAIN LATE TUE NGT INTO THU MORNG. DRY WX RETURNS THU
AFTN. LOWS IN THE LWR TO MID 30S MON MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO MID
40S TUE MORNG...IN THE UPR 30S TO UPR 40S WED MORNG...AND RANGING
FM THE LWR 30S TO LWR 40S THU MORNG. HIGHS RANGING FM THE LWR 50S
TO LWR 60S WED...AND RANGING FM THE MID 40S TO LWR 50S THU.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
ALONG THE LEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN JUST OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. A VERY STRONG/TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP
PRESSURE FALLS TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY NE-N WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR IN TWO WAVES...THE FIRST
ONE WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
EXPECTED BTWN 21-00Z. EXPECTED SUSTAINED NE-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 KT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST OF NE NC...FAR
SE VA AND THE VA EASTERN SHORE. GUSTS MAY POTENTIALLY REACH 50 KT
LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING FROM KORF TO KMQI...HOWEVER THE MIXING
LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF STEADY RAIN AND A VERY
LOW STRATUS DECK. FARTHER INLAND...EXPECT SUSTAINED NE-N WINDS OF
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
NWD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IT SHOULD OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES BY
LATE MORNING. PRECIP WILL PRIMARILY FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER COLDER
AIR NORTHWEST OF GENERALLY AN KAVC-KRIC-KSBY LINE WILL ALLOW FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR THIS MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND PRECIP BECOMES ALL RAIN. CIGS
WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR TODAY AND VIS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 2-3SM
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
LOW PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. EXPECT CIGS TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE AND WINDS TO DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
DUE TO LACK OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION ALSO MOVES OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FM FLORIDA NE AND JUST OFF THE
SE AND MID ATLC CST THIS EVENG THRU FRI NGT. HAVE ADDED THE MOUTH
OF THE BAY (ANZ634) AND CURRITUCK SND (ANZ633) TO THE GALE WARNING
WHICH WILL BE IN EFFECT THRU FRI EVENG. ELSEWHERE...SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU LATE FRI NGT OR THRU SAT MORNG (ON THE CST). WAVES
WILL BLD TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE CHES BAY...AND SEAS WILL BLD TO 8 TO
12 FT ON THE CST DUE TO VERY STRONG NE OR N WINDS THRU THE PERIOD.
CALMER CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FM MIDDAY SAT THRU TUE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES XPCD TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.5 FT ABV NORMAL ALG THE OCN
AND IN THE BAY FM THROUGH FRI. NO FLOODING XPCD ATTM DUE TO DCRSG
ASTRO TIDE LVLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PSBL STRONGER PD OF WNDS
(TNGT THRU FRI) WHICH MAY RESULT IN DEPARTURES RISING CLOSER TO 2
FT (AND THAT WOULD APPROACH MINOR THRESHOLDS IN SOME PLACES).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-032-
     102.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR VAZ048-049-
     061>064-069.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ095-097>100.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     VAZ060-065>068-070-071-079-080.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     635>638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...