Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
FXUS61 KAKQ 280742
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
342 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
A cold front will cross the region and move offshore early this
morning. High pressure returns by this afternoon and Saturday,
and becomes anchored along the southeast coast on Sunday. Another
cold front crosses the region Sunday night.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc cold front currently bisects VA from NE to SW and will
continue to progress eastward and off the coast by around 12z or
so. Still seeing isold/wdly sct shwrs south of the boundary moving
through the VA Tidewater but these should exit the area by 5am or
so. Clouds will gradually decrease thru sunrise from NW to SE and
expect a sunny/mstly sunny sky all areas by Noon as sfc high
pressure returns. NW winds will be a bit gusty to 20-25
mph...highest invof bay-atlantic coast into the early afternoon.
Temps are not expected to move much from their current levels
thanks to good CAA in the wake of the cold front today. Highs
today from the low 60s Eastern Shore to nr 70 far SW. Clear and
cool tonight with high pressure overhead. Lows mainly in the 40s
(upr 30s rural areas to around 50 immediate coast).
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sfc high pressure slides S of the region Sat with zonal flow
aloft. Deep layered WSW flow leads to substantial warming by Sat
afternoon under a mostly sunny sky.Highs Sat from the upr 60s to around
70F on the Eastern Shore to the mid/upr 70s along and W of the
High pressure elongated E-W from the SE Conus coast to the western
gulf states provides a continuation of a deep layered WSW flow and
mild-warm wx to end the weekend. Low pres will be tracking into
the NE CONUS by Sun...with its trailing cold front sinking S into
the local area toward evening (but with limited moisture). Clear
and milder Sat night with lows ranging through the 50s. Sunny to partly
cloudy Sunday with highs from the mid/upr 70s at the coast to the
low 80s inland.
See climate section below for record highs Sun.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Only chance of pcpn in the long term period is Sun night with a
low chance of rain (20-30%) limited to ne areas in association
with a passing cold front. High pressure builds over the ne/mid
atlantic states thereafter through mid-week with continued above
normal temps. Wed will be the warmest day with highs reaching the
mid-upr 70s; at least ten degrees above normal.
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Isold -SHRA will clear the SE coast by 5am and should not affect
the TAF sites. A sliver of MFVR clouds around 2 KFT will impact
KSBY through 09z (5am) as a cold front crosses the region. No
other flight restrictions are expected. Winds will be shifting to
the N-NW behind the front this morning as drier air arrives. Look
for winds to increase (primarily along the coast) to 10-15 KT
with gusts to around 20 KT thru early aftn.
Outlook: High pressure builds into the region this aftn through
Sat with N winds diminishing to 5-10 KT or less and mainly clear
skies. Another cold front will approach the area from the west
late Sunday. Isold -SHRA may be possible at KSBY Sun night.
Cold front crosses the waters before 12Z. SCA headlines remain in
place for the Ches Bay and coastal waters as winds shift to the NW
with a several hour CAA surge is expected. Strongest winds noted
across northern coastal waters with gusts to 30 kts this morning.
Gusts to 25 kt over the Bay. CAA surge and pressure gradient weakens
this afternoon resulting in winds dropping below SCA levels by 22Z.
4-5 ft seas subside to 3-4 ft, 3-4 ft waves subside to 1-2 ft.
High pressure builds over the waters this weekend with west to
southwest winds aob 15 kts through Sat morning. Pressure gradient
tightens a bit across the coastal waters increasing the SW winds to
between 15-20 kts Sat afternoon and night.
The next cold front crosses the area Sun night. Data suggests a
brief CAA surge behind it over the bay/ocean around 12Z Mon.
Record High Temperatures Sunday (10/30)
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ633-
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-