Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 291448
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1048 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE SUNDAY...AND STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATES A SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. WV SATELLITE SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRAILING THE SFC LOW
TRACKING EAST OFF THE COAST OF MAINE. WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS STILL IN
PLACE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT STILL
ENABLING A FEW SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACRS THE LOWER ERN SHORE JUST TO
THE NORTH OF DORCHESTER MD.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. IN GENERAL
THERE IS A SLIGHT DROP IN DEWPTS ACRS THE FA AS HI PRES JUST
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO SLIGHTLY BUILD WWD DURING THE DAY. FOCUS OF
HIGHER POPS (20-30%) BECOMES CONFINED TO FAR NW PORTION OF FA
WITH POPS AOB 15% ELSEWHERE. SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN MID-UPPER 80S WELL INLAND...TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
AT THE COAST. BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
TO AROUND 70 F AND ANY REMAINING CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT
SHOULD WANE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OUR PD OF SUMMER-LIKE WX TO CONT THROUGH THE WKND. BY SAT...CDFNT
PUSHES SE THROUGH THE OH VLY...RMNG FAR ENOUGH AWAY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WX HERE. WILL KEEP CONDS WARM WITH SKIES
AVERAGING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE EARLY AFTN...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE
MID/LATE AFTN. WILL KEEP POPS AT ONLY 10%...WITH WEAK UPPER
RIDGING IN PLACE.

CDFNT FM THE NW CONTS TO SLOLY APPROACH SUN. LATEST GFS IS FASTEST
TO BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER. MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY AND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY. POPS INCREASE TO 40-50% ACRS FAR NNW PORTIONS OF
THE FA FOR THE LATE AFTN/EVE HRS...TAPERING TO 10% FOR SOUTHER 1/2
OF CWA. THE BULK OF PCPN XPCD TO BE ALG AND BEHIND THE FNT (AND
THAT IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL LT SUN).

HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN FM THE U80S TO ARND 90F INLAND...70S TO L80S
AT THE CST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
COASTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST 00Z/29 GFS INDICATES THE TROUGH CLOSES
OFF IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHILE
THE ECWMF HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WITH THE RIDGE
RETROGRADING W. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE COLD FRONT
TO DROP INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER TO PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY WILL NUDGE INTO
THE REGION BY THURSDAY...AS MID/UPPER RIDGING RETURNS AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. POPS AVERAGE 40-60% SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC...THEN TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NNE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S N...TO LOW 80S S. COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ONSHORE FLOW. CURRENTLY WILL
FORECAST HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S N TO NEAR 80 S...BUT THESE
VALUES COULD BE COOLER DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND PCPN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE THROUGH THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. CALM-
LIGHT S WIND AOB 5 KT WILL PERSIST THRU MID MORNING. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A FEW-SCT DECK AROUND 5K FT AGL ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC...WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...A SE WIND OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WELL OFFSHORE. SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-5K FT AGL EXPECTED.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
THE PIEDMONT INTO CNTRL VA...BUT TAF SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.

UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FRI-
SAT. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXPECTED SUN-MON AS A COLD FRONT
REACHES...AND THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBS OVER THE WATER REFLECT SLY WINDS AOB 10 KT. WAVES 1-2 FT
AND SEAS 2-3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. A SELY
WIND AVERAGES 10-15 KT TODAY. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SELY
WINDS INCREASE TO A SOLID 15 KT...PUSHING SEAS TO 2-3 FT SAT AND 3-4
FT SAT NIGHT. WAVES BUILD TO 2-3 FT. FLOW BECOMES SLY 10-15 KT
SUN...BEFORE THE FLOW WEAKENS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT SETTLES INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE
MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDS. EXPECT INCREASING NE FLOW AND BUILDING
SEAS/WAVES WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ/LKB
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM



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