Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 020800
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
400 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT
WEAK COOL FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/...

WEAK SFC FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC
COAST THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC TROUGH IN PLACE
FROM S MD TO JUST OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND AND SE NEW ENGLAND.
NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE AND SE VA THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT, BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND HANDLE WITH STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST FROM THE OH
VLY TODAY. DESPITE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE, PW REMAINING
ABOUT 1 S.D BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY REMAIN
CONFINED SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT HAVE HELD ONTO A 20% RAIN
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA ALONG ALBEMARLE SOUND (ROUGHLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 158 IN NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD,
SHARPENING THE EAST COAST TROUGH AND ALLOWING THE FIRST IN A SERES
OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TO DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COOL FRONT
TRACKS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND BEST FORCING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, APPEARS MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
SE COASTAL FRONT/SFC TROUGH. WILL AGAIN CONFINE A SLIGHT CHC POP
TO SE THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTN/EVE. HIGHS 90-95 INLAND, MID
TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER LOW WILL EJECT EAST FROM QUEBEC TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SCOOTING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION
TO A QUASI-ZONAL SETUP BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE A SLIGHT TO LOW
END CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AFTN AND EVENING AS ATTENDANT WEAK
COOL FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PW REMAINING
LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD. 310-315K THETA SFCS POINT TO BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (NRN
NECK/EASTERN SHORE), AND THUS HAVE GONE WITH LOW END CHC/30 POP
IN THIS AREA, TAPERING BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH. ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR WED, WITH QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST
TO EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISO TO WIDELY SCT, AND HENCE REMAINING IN 20% RANGE FOR
NOW. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

SSW FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING RH/DEWPOINT TEMPS...AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT ARND 100 EACH DAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
(HIGHEST WED).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE FREQUENT CHANCES OF RAIN WITH
DECREASING TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. TOUGH TO TIME EXACTLY WHEN BEST
CHANCES WILL BE BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30-40% CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS EACH AFTN/EVENG...AND A 20-30% CHANCE EACH NIGHT/MORNG.
PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPR-LEVEL TROF OVER THE FAR ERN CONUS WITH
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROFS PASSING THRU THE MID ATLC REGION. AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL DROP FM THE LO/MID 90S WED TO MID/UPR 80S FRI AND
SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC COAST AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN
THUNDERSTORMS TO KECG AND CIGS AROUND 6 KFT AGL. THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL MAINTAIN A SCT CLOUD DECK BTWN 6-9 KFT AGL TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WX PATTERN.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS
WEAK LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALTHOUGH
THE TWO FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE ELONGATED TROUGH
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...BEST SHOWER CHANCES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK TROUGHING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE END RESULT WILL BE A VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-3 FT. MORE PROMINENT
SLY WINDS DEVELOP BY MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE NW-N AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WIND SPEEDS DURING MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 15-20 KT
OVER COASTAL WATERS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY SURGE IS EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LOW-END
SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVER
NRN COASTAL WATERS FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT.
SCA FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AND AFOREMENTIONED NRN
COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY CURRITUCK SOUND. WAVES/SEAS SHOULD
BUILD TO 2-3 FT/3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY...UP TO 5 FT POSSIBLE FOR
NRN COASTAL WATERS OUT NEAR 20NM. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK TROUGHING ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECT S-SW WINDS AOB 15 KT AND
WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB/MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD


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