Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 271139
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
639 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
TODAY...CENTERING OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SECONDARY WEAK COLD FRONT AND H85 TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS REMAINS OVER
THE OH VALLEY...WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY IN THE
MID 20S. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AOB 4 DEGS AND CALM WINDS HAS
RESULTED IN PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING. LOWEST VISIBILITIES
LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN VA THIS MORNING...AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST. BLACK
ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON AREA ROADWAYS AND ESPECIALLY OVERPASSES
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. SPS IS IN EFFECT THRU EARLY
MORNING...MENTIONING BLACK ICE AND FREEZING FOG.

FOR TODAY...THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVES DE-
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...CROSSING THE NE
STATES THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AS LOW
LEVEL NLY FLOW INCREASES. H85 TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION AS WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT LIFT OVER THE REGION. BEST
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE SHEARING WAVE. CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATE HIGH RH VALUES AOB H85 WITH WEAK
LIFT/OMEGA...BUT REMAINING BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. HI-RES
GUIDANCE ALSO PICKING UP ON LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE N AND
NE ZONES...IN TANDEM WITH MOISTURE AND LIFT. CAA WILL ALSO RESULT
IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE LOWER PENINSULA. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS
MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW.

SMALL DIURNAL EXPECTED TODAY WITH SKY AVG PARTLY CLOUDY-MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND CAA. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS PREVAIL THRU
THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE EXITS THE NE COAST TONIGHT AS STRONG
~1045MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OH VALLEY. CAA KICKS
IN TONIGHT BUT A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND LIGHT NLY WINDS KEEP TEMPS
OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS
IN THE TEENS IS EXPECTED. THE SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
SAT AS CAA CONTINUES. THICKNESSES YIELD TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 30S
SAT AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT TEMPS OVER THE ERN SHORE AND COASTAL
AREAS TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S-LOW 30S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION SAT NIGHT UNDER FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WINDS DECOUPLE
BUT MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY. LOWS FORECAST GENERALLY IN THE UPPER TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTS ALONG THE COAST...WITH A LIGHT RETURN FLOW
INLAND. WHILE THICKNESSES BEGIN TO MODERATE...ANOTHER DAY OF 10-15
DEG BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S...WITH
MID-UPPER 30S ERN SHORE AND COASTAL REGIONS. THE NEXT NRN STREAM
SYSTEM DROPS FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUN. HAVE
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE SUN AS
MOISTURE RETURNS AND PERTURBATIONS IN FAST WLY FLOW ALOFT CROSS
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE
REGION...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AT THIS
TIME 40-50% POPS ARE FORECAST NE...WITH 30-40% ELSEWHERE. EXPECTING
MAINLY -RA AS LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING N OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S NE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S SW. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S N...TO LOW/MID 30S S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE REGION AND LINGER
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THIS TIME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING AND BE DICTATED BY THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES S OF THE BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY TO
BE MILD AND MORE SPRING LIKE...WHILE COOL (BUT MORE SEASONAL/WITHIN
-1 ST DEV) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE BOUNDARY.
REGARDLESS...PCPN TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL -RA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INTERESTING CLOUD FORECAST FOR TODAY. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE BTWN 1-3K
FT TODAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST CIGS THAT LOW.
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WITH ENOUGH MOISTUTE ARND 4-5K FT SO WENT
WITH A VFR FORECAST WRT CIGS RATHER THAN AN MVFR ONE. SCT FLURRIES
ARE PSBL WITH THE ACTUAL FROPA THIS AFTRN...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN AT ANY ONE TAF SITE ATTM.  WINDS GNRLY NORTH
AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH N-NE WINDS.

ECG OBS RETURNED TO NORMAL SO HAVE REMOVED THE `AMD NOT SKED".

&&

.MARINE...
ANTHR ARCTIC FRONTAL BNDRY PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY.
MODELS SHOW A CAA SURGE BEHIND THE FROPA...BUT NOT ALL THAT STRNG.
GIVEN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE BNDRY...WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A
MINIMAL SCA (15-20 KTS) FOR THE CHES BAY TONIGHT. SURGE A FEW HRS
LATER OVR THE CURRITUCK SND (05Z-15Z). ALSO...WENT AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE SCA OVR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR
SEAS ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL INCRS TO JUST UNDER SCA LEVELS.

HIGH PRS MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT THEN OFFSHOREBY SUNDAY
RESULTING IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. RETURN S-SW FLOW
DVLPS SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT APPRCHG FROM THE NW. THIS
BNDRY PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY WITH WINDS BCMG NW TO N
BEHIND IT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.2 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.8 F (-9.7 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH:

* RICHMOND: 12.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THIS
  MOVES RICHMOND UP TO #9 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

* NORFOLK: 11.5" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THIS
  MOVES NORFOLK UP TO #7 ALL TIME FOR FEB.

ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING):

          2/28      3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______   _______    __________________________________________
RIC     -1/1934   11/1937     10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF     17/1934   18/1980     14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1950   13/1980     1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     14/1934   16/1937     16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY):

            2/27      2/28
          _______   _______
RIC       23/1934   28/1934
ORF       24/1934   30/1934
SBY       24/1934   29/1934
ECG       33/1963   33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
     654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SAM/TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR
CLIMATE...





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