Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 161759
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1259 PM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the southeast states today, and
moves off the Carolina coast Sunday and Monday. The local area
remains in between weak low pressure to the south and strong low
pressure over Canada on Tuesday. A cold front crosses the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The current analysis indicates surface high pressure centered
from the Gulf coast ENE to along the NC coast, with low pressure
now well off the mid-Atlc and southern New England coast. The
sky is mostly sunny across most of the area with the exception
of some mid and high clouds from the Nrn Neck to the Lower MD
Ern Shore. Temperatures have moderated into the 30s after early
mornings lows that ranged through the 20s (with even a few
upper teens). For today, the sfc high will slowly build ENE and
become centered from AL to southern NC, bringing a WSW low
level flow to the CWA. Some mid clouds will continue to brush
through the northern 1/2 of the area through 21Z so cloud
coverage should avg out partly sunny north and mostly sunny
south. Highs today will range from the upper 40s north and near
the coast to the lower 50s SW. Mainly clear with a light wind
tonight and will side with the cold edge of guidance under good
radiational cooling conditions. Lows will avg in the mid-upper
20s inland to the lower 30s along the SE VA/NE NC coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sfc high pressure slides offshore Sunday as a weak sfc trough
pushes across the Great Lakes. Some upper level srn stream
moisture will arrive ahead of this wave, which will result in
increasing clouds Sunday (genly mostly cloudy by aftn). Highs
Sunday range from around 50F N to the mid 50s S. High pressure
remains offshore Monday. A dampening srn stream wave pushes into
the Tennessee Valley by Monday aftn. Mostly cloudy Sun evening
with a slight chc PoP MD ern shore, otherwise measurable precip
chances look too low for a mention in the gridded fcst. Decreasing
clouds later Sunday night with lows ranging from the mid/upper
30s N to the low 40s SE. Genly partly sunny and milder Monday
with highs in the upper 50s N to lower 60s S. The southern
stream system to pass by to our south Mon night/Tue ahead of a
stronger cold front well off to our NW. Will carry just a 20%
PoP over the south Mon night and into all areas for Tue. Quite
warm Tue with highs in the 60s (potentially close to 70 F
depending on how much sun prevails).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The medium range period to be dominated by an upper ridge
anchored from the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas, with a fairly
progressive/split flow regime over most of the CONUS. This
setup will keep any significant cold air locked up well to our
north across Canada and the upper midwest. Latest GFS/ECMWF are
in good agreement at pushing a cold front through the local area
Tue night into Wed, allowing for a dry and somewhat cooler day
Wed with highs mainly 50-55 F. A weakening/southern stream
system is progged to lift ENE over the southern states Wed night
and off the SE coast Thu (the ECMWF and GEM being farther north
and stronger with this feature than the GFS). For Wed night,
have trended clouds and PoPs up a little bit from previous
forecast to 20% central zones and 30% in NC, but still appears
as if most of the deeper moisture stays south. This looks to be
an all rain event attm with lows in areas with PoPs mainly in
the mid/upper 30s. Drying out Thu with high temperatures
remaining close to seasonal averages in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Temperatures trend back up above climate normals for Friday
with winds swinging back out of the southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure is centered over AL/GA/SC as of 18z and this is
resulting in a 5-10kt WSW wind under a primarily sunny sky aside
from a few patches of high clouds. High pressure becomes
centered over the Carolina coast tonight with a mostly clear sky
and a calm to very light wind. High pressure slides offshore
Sunday and Sunday night as a weak trough approaches from the
WSW. This will bring a period of bkn-ovc mid/high clouds Sunday
aftn into Sunday evening. High pressure remains near the
Southeast coast Monday through Tuesday with VFR conditions
prevailing along with occasional mid/high clouds. Low pressure
passes S of the region Wednesday with high pressure building N
of the region Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
All SCA headlines have been cancelled with this forecast package
with winds down to 10-15 kt over the Bay/Sound and seas over coastal
wtrs down to mainly 2-3 ft. Sfc low pressure rapidly pushes offshore
today as high pressure builds over the SE states. Slight increase in
pressure gradient this evening may lead to winds close to SCA
criteria over the Bay, but confidence is not high enough attm to
issue a headline. Otws, sub-SCA conditions over the next few days as
the sfc high slides off the SE coast and low pressure passes well
north of the local area with a lack of any CAA.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...MAS



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