Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 011718 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF
SITES FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
AMA WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD THERE. CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
INTO THE VFR RANGE AT AMA BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT DHT AND GUY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS
AND WHICH TAF SITES MAY BE IMPACTED BY ANY LIGHT RAIN THAT DEVELOPS
TODAY. BASED ON PROJECTED PATH OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...IT
APPEARS KDHT AND KGUY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END NEAR SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST IS SPINNING OVER NORTHERN KANSAS
WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE FALLEN AS LOW AS EXPECTED JUST YET OVER
CIMARRON COUNTY WHERE THE FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE...BUT STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. COOL AIR MASS REMAINS AT
THE SURFACE - IN FACT, A RECORD LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD OF
52 DEGREES COULD BE BROKEN AT AMARILLO TODAY. THIS SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLDER AIR COMBINED WITH THE ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING WILL
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LOW DISSOLVES OVER NEW MEXICO AND HAVE ENDED MOST
POPS LATE TONIGHT AND A SHIFT TO PERHAPS SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOWEST LAYERS STILL LOOK FAIRLY
SATURATED. GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTS NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON THE
FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
MORNING`S EVENT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST, SETTING UP A
NORTHWEST FLOW SCENARIO FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. HAVE LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THOUGH THIS COULD VARY WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OR ANY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND SLIPPING DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES SOME AND THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EASTWARD BY THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE YET...BUT DRYLINE FORMATION LOOKS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN SETS UP
AND INSTABILITY/SHEAR INCREASES DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.

ELSENHEIMER

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  38  60  41  69 /  60  20   5   5  20
BEAVER OK                  50  37  61  37  70 /  60  40  10   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              42  33  58  36  66 /  70  30  10  10  20
BORGER TX                  49  41  62  43  71 /  60  20   5   5  20
BOYS RANCH TX              48  36  62  38  70 /  60  20   5   5  20
CANYON TX                  49  35  61  38  70 /  60  20   5   5  20
CLARENDON TX               55  40  62  42  71 /  50  20   5   5  10
DALHART TX                 46  35  60  37  67 /  70  30   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  46  38  61  40  69 /  70  40  10  10  10
HEREFORD TX                50  35  61  38  69 /  70  20   5   5  20
LIPSCOMB TX                52  40  61  41  71 /  50  40  10   5  10
PAMPA TX                   50  39  60  41  69 /  50  20   5   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                57  42  63  43  72 /  40  30   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              59  43  64  42  73 /  30  30   5   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6



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