Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221738
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE SHOWING A BIT OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AS
OF MIDDAY...AND ISOLATED/WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE TEXAS/
NEW MEXICO LINE WEST OF LUBBOCK. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ALONG A REMNANT BOUNDARY OVER
THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND THIS APPEARS WELL HANDLED AT THIS
TIME WITH THE 10 PERCENT/ISOLATED POPS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WILL
MONITOR THESE TRENDS.

LINDLEY

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWER/
STORM MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 22/19-22Z IN VICINITY OF THE KAMA TERMINAL.
CONFIDENCE IN DEGRADED AVIATION CONDITIONS WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY
THAT DEVELOPS IS VERY LOW. OTHERWISE...ALL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 7-10 KFT.

LINDLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF A LIBERAL TO CLAUDE LINE. A SEVERE STORM
CAN`T BE RULED OUT, BUT MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. QUARTER
SIZE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. THE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 1 AM.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST HOT AND DRY.
ONE MINOR CONCERN WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWEST ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS
CURRENTLY LOW.

FRIDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: THE HOTTEST DAY LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY, AND THEN THE
HEAT BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WILL DEVELOP,
LEADING TO BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY AS EITHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT AND/OR 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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