Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 011139
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NNW VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP RIGHT AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND GET
MUCH STRONGER JUST PAST THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. DESPITE WEAKER SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
THAN YESTERDAY, 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 1 C WARMER THIS
AFTERNOON SO PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE WAY TO GO. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S (NW) TO LOWER 90S (SE).
THE REAL ACTION BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS, A SEASONABLY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 3-HR PRESSURE
RISES UP TO 6 MB POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, A CORE OF 35-40 KT WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AT 850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK WILL LIKELY ONLY TAP INTO THESE STRONGER WINDS OVERNIGHT, AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY, BUT A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS
COULD FLIRT WITH IT.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES, STRONG ASCENT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
AFTER 10 PM ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. CHANCES FOR
RAIN/STORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE`VE PULLED POPS
FARTHER AS THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD BE NORTH OF A
VEGA TO CANADIAN LINE. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS IF THEY CAN MIX DOWN THE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 850 MB. DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT, LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: WE`VE ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A STORM OR TWO EAST OF A LIBERAL TO HEREFORD LINE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULDN`T BE WIDESPREAD. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE`S A
POSSIBILITY A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO BREAK UP
UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, SO HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH VERY IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH, THE STRONGEST LOW-/MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COULD INCREASE INTO
THE 20-25 MPH RANGE BEHIND IT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH, SO WINDS SHOULDN`T BE TOO
STRONG IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A LINGERING CORE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE FAR NORTHEAST PANHANDLES,
WHICH IS WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE DAY.
NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, BUT 850 MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2-3 C COLDER THAN ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS, WE`VE
LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. ADMITTEDLY, WE MAY NOT BE COOL
ENOUGH FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WE THINK THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN MOST LOCATIONS.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: A DRY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE BECOMING MORE
ZONAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL INTRUSIONS
MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS PATTERN, MOST LIKELY OCCURRING SUNDAY AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE TO NO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
EACH FRONT, HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE IMPACTED MUCH AT ALL. OVERALL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH RAIN CHANCES
APPEARING TO BE SLIM TO NONE.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS DUE TO EITHER 20-FOOT WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 MPH
AND/OR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/13





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.