Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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423
FXUS64 KAMA 232034
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
334 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered convection has already begun to develop mainly south of
the Panhandles...with recent development over the SE Texas Panhandle.
We expect to see further development of convection as we go into the
late afternoon and evening hours along and south of a convergence
boundary stretching roughly from Amarillo to Beaver. Instability
values of 1000 - 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and weak deep layer shear will
likely lead to pulse style storms. This would indicate that brief
gusty winds and heavy downpours would be the primary hazards with
storms this afternoon.

Overnight, instability will be on the decline but embedded weak
disturbances will help to keep precip chances possible across the
southeastern Texas Panhandle through the overnight hours. A brief
lull in convective activity is expected during the late morning hours
on Wednesday. This precipitation reprieve won`t last long past noon as
convection is anticipated to develop along and ahead of a pacific
front that will sneak into the northwest zones. While instability
values will be similar compared to Today, our deep layer shear values
of 30 kts will present a better chance for organized convection. This
means a strong to severe storm can`t be ruled out and the primary
hazards will be damaging wind gusts and hail. While forecast PWAT
values remain below the +2SD for this time of year (1.5 inches),
storm motions show the potential for training storms which could lead
to locally higher rainfall amounts and potentially localized
flooding. Precip chances will persist through the overnight hours
with primary hazards switching from severe to hydro during the late
evening hours as the low-level jet ramps up.

There is some difference between model outputs on how far south the
front will push Friday night with the NAM being the most aggressive.
The NAM pushes the front south of the area by Thursday morning which
seems plausible given the additional push southward from convective
outflows. The ECMWF is slightly behind the NAM to bring the front
south of us by Thursday mid-day with the GFS stalling the front over
the Panhandles. The forecast reflects the more aggressive southerly
push of the front but recovers quickly which leans back towards the
ECMWF and GFS in the following days. The result shows precip chances
persisting well into Thursday before we start to see precip chances
lessen towards the weekend.

Persistent southeasterly flow aloft starting Friday night will allow
weak disturbances to move across the Panhandles to keep low-end pops
in the forecast into early next week. Expect these chances to change
as we move forward in time as slight changes in timing will have
significant changes in the chance and location of precip.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                67  87  60  77  59 /  20  30  50  50  50
Beaver OK                  70  91  61  77  59 /  20  40  50  30  40
Boise City OK              60  84  54  72  56 /  10  40  50  30  30
Borger TX                  71  90  62  78  61 /  20  30  50  50  50
Boys Ranch TX              65  90  59  78  58 /  20  30  50  50  50
Canyon TX                  66  88  59  78  57 /  20  30  50  50  50
Clarendon TX               68  88  62  83  60 /  20  30  50  50  40
Dalhart TX                 64  87  57  74  57 /  10  30  50  40  50
Guymon OK                  66  89  59  75  58 /  10  40  50  30  40
Hereford TX                66  87  59  78  57 /  20  30  50  50  50
Lipscomb TX                72  91  63  79  61 /  20  30  50  50  50
Pampa TX                   69  88  61  78  60 /  20  30  50  50  50
Shamrock TX                71  90  64  85  62 /  20  30  50  40  50
Wellington TX              70  92  65  87  63 /  20  30  50  30  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/14



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