Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271155
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST IS SHAPING UP MUCH AS PLANNED...WITH VERY FEW CHANGES
NEEDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE.  COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEHIND
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS ALLOWING FOR DEEP UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES.  ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS...AS EVIDENCED BY VEERING WINDS SAMPLED BY KAMA VAD
WIND PROFILE DATA.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING.  CONFIGURATION OF WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HAS BEEN
LEFT UNCHANGED...WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
IN WESTERN SECTIONS...AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW FOR ALL
SECTIONS OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY.

UPSLOPE FLOW DIMINISHES TONIGHT...BUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW SNOW POPS CONTINUE SATURDAY IN
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME.  WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.  FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION STILL POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS...WITH GFS CALLING
FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN.  OUR FORECAST CALLS FOR A
RESPECTABLE WARMUP ON TUESDAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD
OF NEXT COLD FRONT.  LOW SNOW POPS RETAINED FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

COCKRELL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z. IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE HEAVIER SNOW THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. MVFR
CIGS THEN LOOK TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. SOME FLURRIES MAY
LINGER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE TO IFR LEVELS AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                18  14  33  30  43 /  90  30  30  20  20
BEAVER OK                  21  16  30  27  34 /  70  50  70  30  20
BOISE CITY OK              19  14  33  25  31 /  70  50  30  20  20
BORGER TX                  20  16  33  31  40 /  80  40  40  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              21  17  36  29  42 /  80  40  30  20  10
CANYON TX                  19  15  34  31  45 /  90  30  30  20  20
CLARENDON TX               20  16  31  29  44 /  90  30  30  20  20
DALHART TX                 20  15  34  27  36 /  70  40  30  20  20
GUYMON OK                  19  14  33  27  34 /  70  50  50  30  20
HEREFORD TX                20  15  36  31  46 /  90  30  30  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                21  17  30  28  37 /  80  40  70  30  20
PAMPA TX                   19  15  31  29  40 /  90  40  40  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                21  18  31  29  42 /  90  30  60  30  20
WELLINGTON TX              22  18  32  30  45 /  90  30  50  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

08/03



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