Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 300939
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
439 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WELL IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAST CHANCE MAY HAVE PASSED FOR AMARILLO INTL AP
TO BREAK ITS WETTEST MAY RECORD. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE
PANHANDLES...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY FURTHER SHOWERS OR
STORMS THIS MORNING. THE NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH POSSIBLE STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO THERE MAY BE A CHANCE YET BEFORE THE END OF THE
MONTH.

SYNOPTICALLY SPEAKING...THE PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN
HAS FINALLY BROKEN. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY AS BROADER RIDGING TAKES ITS
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN THE SHORT TERM...GENERALLY WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT. AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST BY
MID TO LATE WEEK...AND A PERSISTENT LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BUT RAPID
WARMING TREND FOR THE PANHANDLES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DUE
TO RECENT EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...HAVE NOT OPTED FOR THE
HIGHER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS MODELS LIKELY NOT TAKING FULL
ACCOUNT OF SOIL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER. EITHER
WAY...SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE WARM UP AFTER RECENT COOL AND RAINY
DAYS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO BECOME
VERY AMPLIFIED...SO PASSING SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE
TRIGGERING AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE CO/NM MOUNTAINS. SOME OF
THESE COULD BE STEERED INTO THE PANHANDLES. FOR NOW...MOST CONFIDENT
IN THIS HAPPENING ON MONDAY BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME MAKE IT
IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. BREEZY AFTERNOONS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                73  51  75  58  84 /  10   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  72  51  80  59  86 /   5   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              70  50  81  58  87 /   5   5   5  10  20
BORGER TX                  74  55  79  61  88 /   5   0   5   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              74  53  79  60  88 /  10   5   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  72  52  76  58  83 /  20   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               74  54  76  58  82 /  20   5   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 73  52  80  59  88 /  10   5   5  10  20
GUYMON OK                  72  52  81  60  88 /   5   0   5   5  10
HEREFORD TX                74  52  79  58  86 /  20   5   5   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                71  52  76  59  84 /   5   0   0  10   5
PAMPA TX                   71  51  75  57  81 /   5   0   0   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                73  52  75  58  81 /  10   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              75  54  77  60  83 /  10   5   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/06





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