Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 232007
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. THE CURRENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A TROUGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A RIDGE
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING
FURTHER TO THE WEST...THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN CANADA. THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
WILL BRING IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS HAVE STAYED UP TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FRONT WILL RACE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST AND PW VALUES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 1 INCH.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING IN WITH LESS MOISTURE
BUT ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND THE WEAK FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND STALL JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIFT
OFF EARLY FRIDAY AND EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR A
FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY GO UP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WARM FRONT WILL
QUICKLY RACE TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH UP INTO THE LOW AND MID
80S ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER LIMITED OVER
THE WEEKEND AND THERE WILL ALSO BE A DECENT CAP BASED ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS...THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND.

THE BIG WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK A NEGATIVELY TILTED CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A DECENT JET
MAX WILL FORM AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND THERE WILL BE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. IN ADDITION...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
FEATURE. MONDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE
LACKING AND WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS WILL YIELD SBCAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. MODELS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET OF
40-50 KTS DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE 0-1 KM SRH TO VALUES SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOGENSIS TO
OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AND ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN
ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. RIDGING WILL KEEP
THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG IS MUCH LESS LIKELY TO
OCCUR TONIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTH. SOME
UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE TOI AREA AND MIGHT SEE SOME LOWER VIS
AROUND SUNRISE AS THE SURFACE MOISTURE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
HIGHER AT THAT LOCATION.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOW ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED THROUGH AT LEAST
MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY OF OBSERVATIONS...
KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST.

88


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  81  58  77  52 /   0   0  50  30  10
ANNISTON    47  81  60  78  53 /   0   0  30  30  10
BIRMINGHAM  50  81  61  79  54 /   0   0  40  20  10
TUSCALOOSA  50  82  60  80  55 /   0  10  40  20  10
CALERA      51  82  60  78  56 /   0   0  30  20  10
AUBURN      52  80  59  78  57 /   0  10  10  30  10
MONTGOMERY  53  84  60  81  59 /   0   0  10  20  10
TROY        54  83  58  81  58 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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