Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 271143
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
643 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak upper level impulse will move around the western periphery
of the ridge centered off the east coast today. This feature will
lift through the Mississippi/Arkansas/Tenn area this afternoon and
be absorbed into a broad trough that will set up over the region that
will persist through the weekend. This will lead to above average
rain chances beginning today for the northwest and continuing
through Monday and Tuesday with all areas seeing some rainfall
during this timeframe. A range of temperatures are expected due to
cloud cover and precipitation with highs from the mid 80s to mid
90s.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

MVFR cigs have developed and spread northward early this morning,
and already seeing clearing at TOI and MGM. Expect the stratus deck
to continue northward, becoming scattered and rising above 3Kft AGL
by mid morning. Convection around the eastern edge of an upper level
disturbance will develop during the early afternoon hours and spread
to the northeast, with better coverage across the west. Am not
confident that rain activity will spread as far east as ANB. Winds
will increase from the southwest at 10-12kts this afternoon.

Convection will diminish this evening. Winds will remain out of the
southeast around 3-6kts which should prevent fog development. With
moist airmass in place and continued low level flow from the west to
southwest, will have to address the possibility of another stratus
deck overnight with the next issuance.

14


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the 90s. Surface winds will be
rather light and generally from the south. Since surface dew
points are so high, critical fire weather thresholds are not
expected to be met with no watches or warnings anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  72  89  71  89 /  40  30  40  30  50
Anniston    92  72  90  72  91 /  30  30  20  20  40
Birmingham  91  74  89  74  90 /  40  40  40  30  40
Tuscaloosa  91  73  90  73  91 /  60  40  50  30  40
Calera      91  73  90  73  91 /  40  30  30  20  40
Auburn      91  73  92  74  92 /  20  20  20  20  20
Montgomery  93  74  95  75  95 /  30  30  20  20  30
Troy        91  72  92  73  92 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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