Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 171122
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
622 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

Similar day in store for today as we had yesterday. Cooler than
normal temperatures expected with clear to partly cloudy skies
across Central Alabama. The clear skies persist through tonight,
allowing a little more radiational cooling to occur in our
southern counties compared to this morning. Therefore, expect
temperatures to drop to the mid to upper 40s area-wide by early
Wednesday morning.

25/Owen

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Tuesday.

Surface high pressure remains in place over the Southeastern US,
centered over the Central Appalachians through the rest of the
week into the weekend. This will mean continued dry, easterly flow
for Central AL and near normal diurnal temperatures. On Friday,
upper level ridging moves across the Eastern US as an amplified
trough digs into the Western US. As this occurs, the high pressure
is pushed eastwards, shifting our winds more southerly. This will
bring in a more moist air mass ahead of the approaching trough.
Models have come into better agreement on the evolution of this
trough as it traverses the CONUS. Expect the trough to deepen as
it moves into the Central Plains and stretch another fairly
substantial cold front southward through the ArkLaTex region
Sunday morning. Currently, the GFS and Euro have about a 12 hour
difference in timing with this cold front as it moves eastward
through MS. For now, will split the difference and keep Central AL
rain free through Sunday morning, then increasing rain chances
Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Both the GFS and Euro try
to develop a closed low at the base of the trough as it moves
through the Gulf States on Monday, though I`m not confident of
that actually occurring. Ultimately, expect increasing rain
chances for the early part of next week as this trough axis moves
through. For now, not expecting a severe threat with this system
as the best upper level dynamics remain displaced well to the
north, limiting the shear for our area.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

VFR forecast for the next 24 hours. Cirrus clouds noted earlier
on satellite have moved off to the southeast and out of Central
Alabama. Otherwise, high pressure will keep things dry with a
surface ridge stretching from PHI to DFW and north/northeast winds
at terminals shifting to more northeast/east during the day as
the ridge expands southward.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Cool and drier air will continue through the rest of this week.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds.
There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  43  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Anniston    69  45  72  46  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  71  47  73  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  73  48  74  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Calera      71  47  72  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Auburn      69  47  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  73  47  75  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        72  47  74  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$

25/08


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