Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 122326
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
526 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface cold front pushed southeast through the state earlier
today ahead of a longwave upper level trough that is swinging east
across the Deep South region this afternoon. A weak surface trough
was analyzed across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon while
cloud cover that had been prevalent across the northern third of
the state has been rapidly dissipating across our northeast and
east-central counties this afternoon as drier air aloft moved
into the state from the northwest.

.SHORT TERM...
Breezy conditions will continue until sunset as deep vertical
mixing will persist across much of our area, followed by
decreasing wind speeds overnight. With a brisk northwest flow
aloft and under clearing skies with decreasing winds, expect a
freeze areawide overnight with lows ranging from the lower 20s
far north to around 30 across our southeast counties.

Dry conditions with fair skies will prevail into Wednesday with
surface high pressure building further into the region from the
west. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s northeast to the
mid 50s south and west on Wednesday as the low-level advection
pattern becomes more zonal.

Little adjustments made to the long term period as dry conditions
persist through the rest of the work week despite another cold
front arriving on Friday that will result in low temperatures
falling into the mid to upper 20s across our northern counties on
Friday and Saturday mornings. The next opportunity for rain
showers looks to be late this weekend, though notable uncertainty
in the timing and coverage exists due to disagreement between the
global model solutions.

05

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Monday.

Rain-free weather is expected to continue through Saturday due
persistent dry west to northwest flow aloft. A shortwave moving
through the Ohio Valley will push a moisture-starved front through
the region on Thursday. Another shortwave approaching from the
west on Friday will have little moisture to work with, and should
not amplify enough to generate sufficient moisture return for
precipitation. Surface high pressure across the region on Saturday
will quickly shift eastward by Sunday as a trough amplifies
across the Plains. Moisture recovery in advance of this system
appears more robust due to a deep-layer ridge near the Bahamas and
southerly low-level flow across the Gulf States. Increasing rain
chances could arrive on Sunday and continue into Monday with the
potential for a widespread soaking rainfall.

87/Grantham

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Breezy conditions will continue until sunset as deep vertical
mixing will persist across much of our area, followed by
decreasing wind speeds overnight. With a brisk northwest flow
aloft and under clearing skies with decreasing winds, expect a
freeze areawide overnight with lows ranging from the lower 20s
far north to around 30 across our southeast counties.

Dry conditions with fair skies will prevail into Wednesday with
surface high pressure building further into the region from the
west. Temperatures will range from the upper 40s northeast to the
mid 50s south and west on Wednesday as the low-level advection
pattern becomes more zonal.

Little adjustments made to the long term period as dry conditions
persist through the rest of the work week despite another cold
front arriving on Friday that will result in low temperatures
falling into the mid to upper 20s across our northern counties on
Friday and Saturday mornings. The next opportunity for rain
showers looks to be late this weekend, though notable uncertainty
in the timing and coverage exists due to disagreement between the
global model solutions.

05

.LONG TERM...
Wednesday through Monday.

Rain-free weather is expected to continue through Saturday due
persistent dry west to northwest flow aloft. A shortwave moving
through the Ohio Valley will push a moisture-starved front through
the region on Thursday. Another shortwave approaching from the
west on Friday will have little moisture to work with, and should
not amplify enough to generate sufficient moisture return for
precipitation. Surface high pressure across the region on Saturday
will quickly shift eastward by Sunday as a trough amplifies
across the Plains. Moisture recovery in advance of this system
appears more robust due to a deep-layer ridge near the Bahamas and
southerly low-level flow across the Gulf States. Increasing rain
chances could arrive on Sunday and continue into Monday with the
potential for a widespread soaking rainfall.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure continues to build
into Central AL in the wake of the cold front that passed thru
this morning. Wind gusts are subsiding and speeds will continue to
decrease with light winds expected overnight. Winds will shift to
the SW on Wednesday and increase to around 10 kts.

19

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No rain is expected through Saturday. Cooler and breezy
conditions are expected today behind a cold front. Another dry
front will move through on Thursday. RH values will remain above
critical values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     26  50  32  53  31 /   0   0   0   0  10
Anniston    25  51  33  55  32 /   0   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  28  52  36  56  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  28  54  35  58  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
Calera      26  51  35  56  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
Auburn      28  51  35  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  29  54  35  61  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
Troy        30  55  36  62  38 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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