Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 150915
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
415 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST...EASTERLY FLOW INTO
ALABAMA WAS HELPING SPREAD LOW CLOUDS INTO THE STATE. EARLIER
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED...BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF ONE
OR TWO DEVELOPED AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

SURFACE COLD FRONT...THAT HAS BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE STATE...
WILL GET AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE FORM OF AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WHILE HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE MORE MOISTURE RICH EASTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT A
BIT MORE SOUTH OVER THE COMING DAYS. LOWER DEWPOINTS LOOK TO
FINALLY INVADE A SUBSTANTIAL PART OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY DURING THAT TIME
FRAME.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CURRENT MOISTURE AXIS STRETCHES FROM SELMA TO TALLADEGA. THIS
AXIS WILL SLIDE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND STALL
OUT JUST WEST OF TCL. THIS WILL PUT ALL BUT TCL INTO A PRIME AREA
FOR LOW CLOUDS/FOG TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE. WITH THAT SAID THE
ADVANCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALREADY MAKES ME THINK THAT TCL WILL GET
THE LOW CLOUDS ANYWAYS SO WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE RICHEST AIRMASS IS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST...SO
WENT WITH IFR CIGS HEREBY 10Z...WITH THE LOWEST AT TOI AND MGM.
AGAIN THOUGH WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE MVFR CLOUDS ALREADY IN
ANB INCLUDED TEMPOS IN AT EET AND BHM WITH IFR AFTER 11Z.
OTHERWISE MVFR CIG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15 TO 18Z AS WELL
BEFORE LIFTING.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN EXTRA MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE SHOWERS/STORMS FROM EAST TO
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FURTHER WEST A SITE THE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP.

16


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     84  67  86  63  82 /  40  20  10  10  10
ANNISTON    85  69  86  65  82 /  40  30  10  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  87  70  88  66  84 /  40  20  10  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  92  71  90  67  86 /  30  20  10  10  10
CALERA      88  71  88  67  86 /  40  20  20  10  10
AUBURN      87  71  88  68  88 /  50  40  30  10  10
MONTGOMERY  90  72  89  69  89 /  40  40  30  20  10
TROY        90  71  88  68  89 /  50  40  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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