Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 180533

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1133 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Issued at 214 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2017

A much quieter forecast is in store for the area through the rest of
the week. Stratus is currently solidly in place across the area, which
has kept the temperatures a little cooler than anticipated. With
currently temperatures in the middle to upper 30s at 2 pm it`s unlikely
at this point that temperatures will max out in the 40s, at least
across areas north of HWY 50. The stratus is expected to remain in the
area through the evening and perhaps through the overnight hours before
some gradual clearing tonight. There is some uncertainly regarding
stratus clearing out around midnight or later in the overnight hours
into Wednesday morning. Should the stratus clear out around midnight
the light winds will help bring conditions favorable for some radiation
fog by Wed morning. While widespread dense fog is not anticipated at
this time there could certainly be some haze through the morning on
Wednesday, with perhaps some patchy dense fog, most likely in the
western and northern parts of Missouri. In the mid levels a broad and
somewhat weak trough is located over the desert southwest and it will
ultimately lumber its way northeast into the Central Plains later this
week. As this mid level wave moves slowly northeast a weak surface
circulation will form across the High Plains, which will effectively
cause a warm front to move north of the forecast area, leaving all of
eastern Kansas and western Missouri in a bit of a warm sector. This
will help the temperatures squeak into the 50s for the middle part of
the week, (perhaps upper 40s in far northern MO) where they will stay
for the forseeable future. As this weak mid level wave moves through
the area it will bring enough lift for some light showers in central
Missouri Wed night into Thursday morning. Expect only light activity
with these showers with some scattered ~.05" amounts.

After some short wave ridging for the late part of the week and into
Saturday, temperatures will generally reside in the lower 50s in
northern Missouri to the upper 50s (perhaps a smattering of 60s) in
central Missouri. The next appreciable chance for rain comes late in
the weekend as a very potent trough ejects into and through the
southern Plains. This trough looks to be a severe weather producer for
the Gulf Coast and Southeast regions, but for the Mid/Lower Missouri
River Valley the main lobe of energy is progged to go too far south to
bring much in the way of impactful weather. Instead there will be some
scattered rain showers, perhaps some steady rain through Sunday night
into Monday morning. There could also be a mixture of some light
wintery weather across northwestern Missouri where temperatures could
approach freezing. But with better chances for rain remaining south and
east of there, the chances at this point for any impactful weather from
this weekend system is minimal.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2017

Shallow ground fog has played havoc at terminals the past couple
hours with conditions bouncing from MVFR to VLIFR. Similar
conditions should persist for another 2-4 hours before mid-level
clouds move into the area and result in some stability with
regards to visibility. MVFR is then expected through mid-morning
before VFR returns. There is some chance a return to VFR may
arrive earlier if visibilities improve quicker upon the arrival of
the mid-level clouds, as some hints in upstream conditions may




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