Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 012359
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
659 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR KLLQ...AND IS PRODUCING SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA...OR EVEN TSRA THAT WILL REDUCE CIGS AND
VISBYS OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR PRECIP AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND LOW CIGS...MVFR TO
IRF...WILL BE ACROSS KLLQ AND KPBF. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN WILL DEVELOP. AS SUCH
HAVE LEFT PROB30S AT ALL OTHER SITES GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FNTL BNDRY RMND NEARLY STATIONARY ACRS SERN AR THIS AFTN. SCTD
SHRA/FEW STORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE BNDRY THIS AFTN. SHORT RANGE
MODEL DATA INDCS THAT ACTIVITY WL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE
STATE THIS AFTN...WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPR 40S
AND 50S.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FNTL BNDRY WL RMN QUASI-STATIONARY TNGT INTO MON.
A SFC LOW IS FCST TO FORM ALONG THE FNT OVR TX...EVENTUALLY TRACKING
NEWD ALONG THE BNDRY THRU MON. THIS WL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN/SCTD TSRA FOR PARTS OF THE FA. THE NAM RMNS THE MODEL OUTLIER
AGAIN TODAY..INDCG A MUCH MORE AREAL COVERAGE/QPF WITH THIS SYS.
WHILE THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...IS MUCH DRIER
REGARDING RAINFALL AMTS. LEANED MORE TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
FOR RAIN CHCS TNGT AND MON...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
FCST TRENDS.

DRIER CONDS WL RETURN STARTING MON NIGHT AND CONT ON TUE AS HIGH
PRES SETTLES INTO THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STRETCHING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS
UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL NOT
MOVE EAST OF ARKANSAS UNTIL SUNDAY.

DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARM UP RETURNS SATURDAY.

LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$


&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224
AVIATION...99



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