Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 231949
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
249 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are past the short term and
mainly mid-week and over the weekend. River levels have come up a
bit with the recent rains, and the forecast has possible
additional rain Wednesday to Thursday, then again over the
weekend. The excess rain will contribute to the possibility of
elevated rivers and flooding, as well as some flash flooding
dependent on location off convection. Also some risk of strong to
severe storms will be possible with the Wednesday to Thursday
system, then again over the weekend.

Today, the stratus cloud deck quickly thinned dissipated as the
cooler and drier air filtered into AR. Only the far southeast had
any ceilings left. Afternoon temperatures were cool and mainly in
the 60s. Dewpoint temperatures were in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Winds were elevated from the northwest to north at 10 to 20 mph
with some higher gusts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday Night

Clear skies are forecast tonight with below normal lows in the
40s. Dry on Monday as the surface high pressure settles over the
region. Light winds becoming south late in the day, with highs in
the 70s. Continued dry Monday night and Tuesday, with lows in the
50s, while highs in the 80s. Later Tuesday, the approaching
system from the west will start to spread clouds eastward, while
a south wind flow will bring back moisture levels to AR, and with
precip water values reaching around 1.5 inches over the region.
Also there will be some risk of isolated strong to severe storms
as the upper lift moves across AR. Current timing would be around
mid-day to the evening. Model timing is a bit different, with the
Euro slower than the GFS or NAM, and the Euro having the upper low
closer to northwest AR, while the others having lifted the upper
low well to the north of AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The long term will be active to say the least. Wednesday`s cold
front still looks to be progressive providing showers and
thunderstorm statewide. Severe weather parameters could support
strong to severe thunderstorms and will need to be monitored in the
coming days. The big change for the long term is the shift in timing
for the weekend heavy rainfall event. What looked like a Saturday
event has shift to Sunday. There`s also been an intro to a shortwave
in between (Friday). Either way, we are headed into an active period
and Arkansas will be in the track. Flooding and flash flooding
will need to be monitored.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     44  74  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         45  78  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       40  74  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    44  77  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  46  77  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     48  77  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      42  76  53  81 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  40  75  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        45  75  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     47  77  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   42  77  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         45  75  51  80 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      46  75  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...61


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