710
FXUS64 KLZK 110824
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
324 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Dry conditions are expected across the state today as H500 NW flow
will remain in place atop sfc ridging. Temps will be a bit above
seasonal average along with Td values in the mainly in the 50s F.
Sky conditions will remain mostly clear initially with mid/high
level clouds expected to increase throughout the day.

Changes are expected on Sunday as the flow aloft will shift out of
the SW ahead of a mid-level cyclone moving east across the
Central/Southern Plains. At the sfc, ridging will begin to shift
eastward which will allow low level flow will out of the S with
dewpoints on the rise.

A developing sfc low with advancing warm front and trailing cold
front will approach the state from the west. Several pieces of
shortwave energy will traverse the SW flow toward the state.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and overspread
the area from SW to NE Sun-Sun night. A plume of PW values in
excess of 1.50" is expected to lift north into southern parts of
the state Sunday night. When combined with an expected increase in
the LLJ across similar areas, there is some concern for locally
heavy rain to occur.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

MONDAY/TUESDAY:

An unsettled weather pattern will occupy much of the workweek across
the Natural State. Beginning the workweek, an upper lvl closed low
develops into a positively tilted trof that approaches the Natural
State. In cohesion with the upper lvl feature, a sfc low pressure
system with a lifting warm front and trailing cold front will be
nearing the state on Monday and moving across the state during the
day on Tuesday. Expect rain and isolated thunderstorms during this
period of Monday and Tuesday with several opportunities for
rainfall across the state.

WEDNESDAY:

An upper lvl ridge builds over the Natural State during the day on
Wednesday as a sfc high pressure center meander across the region
providing most of the state one day of relief from showers and
thunderstorms. Expect dry conditions for most of the state as
Arkansas will be perfectly placed between two low pressure systems:
one departing the region and another moving toward the state from
the west.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY:

An upper lvl positively tilted trof approaches the state in tandem
with the combination of sfc features in the form of a warm front
draped across the Gulf Coast of the Deep South region of the CONUS
and a low pressure center with a cold front moves near the state
from the northwest which will move across the state during the day
on Friday. Expect the return of shower and thunderstorm chances to
bring an end to the workweek.

In terms of temperatures over the long-term forecast period with
respect to both daily low and high temperatures, expect near average
to slightly above average temperatures compared to climatological
normals for this time of the year.

At the current time, the threat of severe weather is low, but an
isolated strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible during the
unsettled stretch during the week. Stay tuned to future forecast
discussions as we continue to nail down specifics.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue, with mainly high clouds noted over the
region. The wind will be light/variable overnight, and northwest at
4 to 8 knots on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     81  58  82  62 /   0   0  10  50
Camden AR         83  61  77  62 /   0   0  20  70
Harrison AR       78  55  78  58 /   0   0  20  70
Hot Springs AR    84  61  79  61 /   0   0  10  80
Little Rock   AR  83  63  82  64 /   0   0  10  70
Monticello AR     83  64  81  64 /   0   0  10  70
Mount Ida AR      84  60  78  61 /   0   0  20  80
Mountain Home AR  79  54  80  59 /   0   0  10  60
Newport AR        82  59  82  63 /   0   0  10  50
Pine Bluff AR     83  62  81  63 /   0   0  10  70
Russellville AR   83  59  81  61 /   0   0  10  70
Searcy AR         82  59  81  61 /   0   0  10  60
Stuttgart AR      82  63  81  64 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67