Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 110913
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
413 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONCE AGAIN PRESENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE STATE. HAVE ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED IN
THE MORNING...WITH THUNDER INTRODUCED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN A BIT PROBLEMATIC
AND...AT LEAST BY THIS FORECASTER...BEEN OVER ESTIMATED IN MANY
AREAS. WHILE A MULTI-DAY WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TODAY...RADAR TRENDS...CLOUD COVER...AND SURFACE OBS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. AS SUCH...DECIDED TO DAMPEN THE WARMING
TREND SLIGHTLY AND LOWER EXPECTED HIGHS JUST A TAD. THE BIGGEST
EFFECT WAS PROBABLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...LOWERING HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES. SHOULD STILL
SEE UPPER 80S THERE...BUT STOPPED SHY OF 90. ELSEWHERE...JUST
LOWERED THEM A DEGREE OR SO. STILL THINK LOW 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS. OF COURSE THIS IS BANKING ON
THERE BEING LESS CONVECTION TODAY VS YESTERDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY
LESS CLOUD COVER. TIME WILL TELL. IN ANY CASE A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID AND UPPER 90S EXPECTED BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN HIGH AS WELL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SO HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE BIG STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DRAMATIC PATTERN
CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL AMPLIFY DRAMATICALLY AS A LARGE
AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH TAKES RESIDENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
BY MONDAY A LEGITIMATE SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI...KNOCKING ON
ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER DOOR BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH
VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS THE FRONT NEARS THE FORECAST
AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM AND BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH
CONVECTION ONGOING...AND THE FRONT NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...MONDAY NIGHT IS STILL LIKELY TO BE A MILD NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. HOWEVER THE LONG
TERM WILL FEATURE FANTASTIC SUMMERTIME WEATHER AS NOTED BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

N UPR LOW WL BE SITUATED OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF
THE PD. THE RESULTING NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVR THE MID SOUTH WL BE
DRIVING A STRONG CDFNT THRU CNTRL AND SRN AR EARLY ON TUE. THE FNT
WL EVENTUALLY SHIFT WELL S OF THE AREA DURG THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FCST PD. CONTD TO MENTION LINGERING SMALL RAIN CHCS OVR THE SRN HALF
OF THE AREA ON TUE AS THE CDFNT CLEARS THE AREA.

THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THE FCST WL BE THE UNSEASONABLY COOLER AIRMASS
THAT WL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRES BLDS OVR AR.
HIGH TEMPS FOR WED AND THU WL BE RANGE FM THE UPR 70S TO THE MID
80S...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.

CLOUDS WL BE ON THE INCRS FM THE W WED NGT AND THU AS A WEAK UPR LVL
IMPULSE DROPS SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS STATES. THE ASSOCD LIFT WITH
THIS FEATURE WL BRING SMALL RAIN CHCS TO CNTRL AND SRN AR HEADING
INTO THU AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD OVR THE STALLED FNT BNDRY TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  72  95  73 /  20  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         93  73  97  73 /  20  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       88  70  93  71 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  72  95  73 /  20  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  73  96  75 /  20  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     92  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      92  71  95  72 /  20  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  71  95  71 /  20  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        89  72  94  74 /  20  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     92  73  96  74 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  72  95  73 /  20  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         90  72  94  73 /  20  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      90  73  95  74 /  20  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...64 / LONG TERM...44





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