Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 291132 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS WILL START THE DAY. ONLY PATCHY
MVFR CEILINGS ARE BEING SEEN THIS MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS
OVER WESTERN AR AND MOVING NORTH. ONLY USED VCSH THIS MORNING FOR
TAFS. THIS AFTERNOON...BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN AND
STARTED WITH VCTS IN TAFS...GOING TO A PROB30 GROUP DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY WHERE AND EXACTLY WHEN CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN. WINDS
WILL BE E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING MORE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...UPPER ENERGY AND A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO AR...WITH VFR CEILINGS LOWERING...AND MVFR CEILINGS WITH
THE CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE W AND NW
BEHIND THE FRONT. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DO
AGREE IN THE BIG PICTURE...THE SUBTLE DETAILS AND TIMING HAVE LEFT
SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS ACROSS THE CWA.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. WITH THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL...ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND...FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. EVEN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES COULD BRING FLASH FLOODING...AND HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN
WOULD LEAD TO A QUICKER FLOODING THREAT. FOR NOW...HAVE WATCH GOING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE WATCH LATER
TO COVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EAST. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW
QUICKLY THE RAINFALL WILL MOVE EAST...AND HAVE POPS TAPERING OFF
FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...IF UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW LIKE THE GFS IS SHOWING...RAIN CHANCES
MAY NEED TO BE BROUGHT BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL SEE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH AND CUT OFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER THE THE REGION. MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE A BIT DIFFERENT WITH THE LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER...
WHETHER TO THE E TO SE OF AR...OR TO THE SE TO S OF AR. EURO HAS THE
LOW WEAKENING AND MOVING MORE OUT OF THE REGION FASTER THAN THE GFS.
WILL USE A SOLUTION CLOSER TO GFS AND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TO AR...SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION. SLIGHT TO A
LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY...WHILE A
BIT LOWER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL VALUES TO A BIT BELOW DUE TO THE POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND RAIN.
OVERALL SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW AND ISOLATED.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLARK-CONWAY-FULTON-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-
MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SALINE-SCOTT-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...59








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