Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 270619
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
119 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.AVIATION...27/06Z TAF CYCLE

A few strong/severe storms will mainly affect locations along the
AR/MO border thru the early mrng hrs, including the KHRO and KBPK.
Otherwise, VFR CIGS initially wl lower to MVFR lvls toward
daybreak and persist thru much of the mrng hrs before improving.
The next round of convection is fcst to form NW of AR aft 28/00Z
and eventually impact the NRN half of AR just beyond this fcst pd.
/44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 249 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Southwest flow will continue over Arkansas through the period. The
Lake Wind Advisory will expire at 7 pm...when lighter winds move
into the area. The main forecast focus will be showers and
thunderstorms over the area Saturday into Sunday. A stalled front
just north and west of Arkansas will remain across Missouri,
Oklahoma, and Texas overnight. There will be a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms north and central tonight. As the front
moves closer to the state instability and moisture will increase
on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday evening
and overnight. There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms
Saturday night. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
threats...and a few tornadoes can not be ruled out. The cold front
will not move through Arkansas until Sunday...so shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through Sunday.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
No major changes were made to the going long term forecast...except
for some minor tweaks to temps and timing of precipitation on
Sunday. Long term begins with cold front across extreme southeast
Arkansas and precipitation ongoing along the front. Models are
showing an upper level disturbance ride along the front and bring an
additional wave of precipitation late Sunday night. However models
do still vary on exact timing and location of this piece of energy
and it will continue to be monitored in future forecasts.

Lingering precipitation will come to an end on Monday across
southeast Arkansas with high pressure and near zonal flow aloft
moves in over the region. Dry weather and at/slightly above normal
temperatures will continue through Wednesday until the next chance
for precipitation returns to the forecast and continues through the
end of the long term.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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