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000
FXUS63 KMPX 230259
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
959 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.UPDATE...For 06z Aviation discussion below


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Cold front was just now making it into eastern MN, and clearing
has moved into west central and central MN behind the front. Upper
trough axis is expected to move across the area late tonight and
Friday morning, but main forcing will depart this evening. There
is some decent fgen across the area, and radar does indeed show
some bands of heavier precip. But the only thunder threat is
across south central into southeast MN, and even that should end
by early evening.

A fairly dense band of stratucu in Manitoba and Saskatchewan had
moved into northern ND and MT, associated with the upper low now
in central Manitoba. As the low moves across northern Ontario
tonight, northwest flow will bring the clouds over our area
tomorrow morning. Thus think that a large part of central MN into
WI will see plenty of clouds tomorrow. Southwest MN might escape
some of this, but even that is doubtful. Looks like mostly cloudy
and cool conditions tomorrow, and a bit blustery, especially in
western MN, but with some peeks of sun.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Little change to the long term period.  The primary topic of
discussion continues to be the longwave trough taking hold over
eastern North America keeping us in cool northwesterly flow this
weekend, with bouts of showers and possibly a few weak
thunderstorms.

By tomorrow evening, the cooler airmass will be in place with the
main jet to our south.  A shortwave trough will be in the process of
diving south across Canada, headed for our area by Saturday.  Given
the PV advection and steepening lapse rates due to upper level
height falls and diurnal heating, we should see showers develop,
with weak thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.  Average
highs are now in the low 80s, but the weekend will be held in the
mid and upper 60s across the region.

Nothing really changes Sunday, more perturbations in the flow will
move through and we again have chances for showers and weak storms
under cyclonic flow aloft.

The western CONUS ridge looks to progress east by midweek, pushing
the trough well east of us and bringing warmer air back to the
region. Temperatures look to climb back to normal for late June
by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Skies become most clear overnight but it will be short-lived with
cyclonic flow bringing in a dense deck of stratocu clouds Friday
morning. Ceilings will lower to around 5000 feet, and potentially
even lower to around 2500ft (mainly at northern sites-KAXN/KSTC).
Northwest winds will also become gusty on Thursday morning,
generally around 15-17kts with gusts to between 22-25kts.

KMSP...
VFR conditions overnight and then bkn-ovc low-end VFR deck (5KFT)
moves in for Thursday, with sct MVFR clouds around 2500 ft. Gusts
to around 25 knots develop by late morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat...VFR. Chc MVFR with p.m. -TSRA. Winds NW 15g25kts.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR with p.m. -TSRA. Winds NW 10kts.
Mon...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS