Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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970
FXUS63 KMPX 051041
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
441 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 435 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Surface analysis this morning indicates high pressure centered
over the Ohio Valley, helping to push away the trough which
brought early morning snowfall this time yesterday. A more
organized cold front is lingering over the Dakotas through WY/UT
and it is this feature which will be watched today for possibly
some -RA/-SN showers later today into tonight along with its
associated warm front which may bring a spike in temperatures.
Low level flow in advance of the approaching cold front are taking
a more southerly than southwest orientation but it is still
nevertheless capable of bringing in even a modified portion of
925mb temps a few degrees over 0 deg C. Clouds will not be
entirely solid throughout the day, making for a mix with some
sunshine. Depending on how far north the warm front can punch into
the area, highs hitting the lower 40s and possibly middle 40s are
entirely reasonable for southwestern and south-central portions of
MN. As the day progresses, isolated -RA/-SN showers look to break
out over eastern portions, mainly in response to the warm front,
while isolated -SN showers develop in western MN due to the cold
front. The front looks to pass over the area in the 06/03z-06/06z
time frame this evening, changing any -RA over to -SN but only a
dusting at best accumulation is expected. The main change will be
the start of prolonged cold air advection which will last through
the rest of the week. As alluded to earlier, highs will hit the
mid-upper 30s in northern and eastern portions of the coverage
area with the low-mid 40s in southwestern and south-central
portions. This will be followed by lows tonight near 20 in western
MN to the upper 20s in western WI but also with breezy NW winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

By tomorrow morning, a 993mb surface low will be near Lake Of The
Woods, with strong cold air advection ongoing across the state. By
this time 850mb temperatures look to fall to -10C to -12C. In
this post front state, temperatures tomorrow will not rise through
the daytime hours as they normally would. Hence, the high for the
day may occur tomorrow morning. The core of the cold will be yet
to come, but west winds will increase to 15-25 MPH, with gusts in
western MN of 30-35 MPH. Light snow will be possible especially
across central MN as we remain under the influence of the low
pressure system providing the region with ample moisture, cyclonic
flow, and cold air advection. We do not expect much in terms of
accumulation at this time, less than an inch.

The cooling trend continues as the large upper level trough
dictates a northwesterly jet across the western CONUS that dives
well south of us, allowing cold air to pour in from the north.
Highs on Wednesday through Friday will mostly be in the teens,
well below normal for the first half of December. A secondary
trough will rotate through Wednesday into Thursday and bring snow
showers to the region under continued low level moisture and
cyclonic flow. Again, not expecting much in terms of accumulation.

The jet looks to become more zonal toward the weekend, hence
somewhat warmer temperatures in the forecast.  The guidance
indicates an upper trough will move through the upper midwest with
a low level baroclinic zone moving through the area which led to
the widespread pops this weekend for light snow. It`s much too
early to discuss amounts at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

The stratus deck primarily affects west central WI sites
(KRNH/KEAU) at TAF issuance. Next concern will be fog development,
particularly at west central Wisconsin sites (KRNH and KEAU), and
have included VLIFR conditions there after 07z. Otherwise,
west/southwest winds will become southeasterly for Monday, and
become gusty by late morning when a mid level cloud deck will move
in ahead of the next system. Rain chances appear higher for west
central WI sites around/after 00z Tuesday.

KMSP...Now that we`ve cleared out, will be watching for fog
development (along with the potential for a return to MVFR cigs).
Have currently included the most optimistic scenario in the TAF,
which only lowers vsbys to 4sm, and keeps cigs VFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...MVFR. Chc -SN early. Wind W 15g25kts.
Wed...MVFR. Wind WNW 15g25kts.
Thu...MVFR. Chc -SN. Wind WNW 15g25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS



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