Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 182328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
628 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Scattered showers are most numerous over southwestern MN and
western WI this afternoon. These showers and cu should dissipate
after sunset with a stabilizing boundary layer. Lows tonight will
be near normal or slightly below normal with low to mid 50s area

Northwest flow continues into Monday, and much like today, another
few disturbances will potentially kick off scattered showers and
a thunderstorm or two by afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

A stronger wave embedded in the northwest flow could allow showers
to become more widespread for a time Monday evening. The loss of
daytime instability will be a negative factor though, so kept PoPs
in the 30-40 percent range.

Low amplitude, mid level ridging returns Tuesday and Wednesday but
thicknesses will remain cool Tuesday with surface ridging nearby.
Mostly sunny skies, winds less than 10 mph, and temperatures in
the 70s should make for a fantastic day.

Temperatures aloft warm considerably Wednesday with 850 mb temps
of around +20C ahead of the system passing by to the north. The
surface warm front and a nocturnal LLJ may spark showers and
storms late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and the resultant
remnant cloud cover will determine if the atmosphere remains
capped or can become unstable Wednesday afternoon as the very warm
air aloft moves overhead. GFS and NAM do indicate the atmosphere
recharging across western MN where temps warm to near 90. Forcing
along the quickly following cold front isn`t all that strong, so
it may be difficult to get a robust storm threat following the
morning activity. If they can form, moderate shear would organize
storms potentially into line segments or supercells.

Northwest flow returns late week through early the following week.
Temperatures will remain below normal and the pattern relatively
unsettled as several more waves dive southeast across the Great
Lakes and midwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Isolated SHRA/TSRA should begin to dissipate by 1-2z, but there
remains some uncertainty on a more organized complex in southeast
North Dakota which may hold together as it moves southeast across
west central, south central and portions of east central Mn during
the overnight hours. At least the clouds will hold on, but the
precipitation may end. There could be MVFR cigs developing around
sunrise, especially in west central Wisconsin. Currently I have
added FEW010/SCT020 to both KRNH/KEAU for this reason. As with
today`s diurnal convection, it will be similar on Monday, but more
across west central Wisconsin, vs, western Minnesota. Winds will
decrease this evening and become gusty once again by noon Monday.


Close to previous taf with lingering clouds overnight, possibly a
SHRA around 6z, but the best chance will again happen during the
typical mid/late afternoon hours.


Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind S 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind WNW 5-10 kts.




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