Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 140818
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
318 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WERE THE MAIN CONCENTRATION IN THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH AN OTHERWISE BENIGN
24-HOUR PERIOD.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN CANADIAN TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT A POCKET OF DECENT 700-600MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND PV ADVECTION NOSE INTO SOUTHERN MN
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z MONDAY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE
POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A REDWOOD FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE
LINE...WITH LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

IN THE MEANTIME...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH
WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER. SHOULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
CENTRAL MN TO NEAR 65 ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
SHOULD ACT AS A SUFFICIENT BLANKET TONIGHT AND INHIBIT FROST
CONCERNS...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SUNDAY NIGHTS SHRTWV ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHRA WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SE BY MONDAY MORNING...AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST THRU MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDS.
THERE WILL BE A BIG PATTERN CHG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA WITH A MEAN TROUGH SETTING UP IN THIS REGION. DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING THE CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA BY FRI/SAT.
THICKNESS VALUES RISE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...BUT
QUICKLY DECREASES FOR A SHORT PERIOD NEXT WEEKEND.

AS MENTION BEFORE...A BIG PATTERN CHG IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE UPPER JET MOVING FURTHER NORTHWARD
ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A WARMER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION. THIS IS ALSO ADVERTISED IN THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE 50H
MEAN AND ANALOG COMPOSITE FOR THE WEEK OF SEPT 21ST. THESE ANALOGS
INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A STRONG TROUGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED-BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10G15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SE AT 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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