Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 242130
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN ABOUT AS MUCH OF A WASHOUT AS YOU CAN GET AS AN
ISENTROPICALLY FORCED RAIN SHIELD LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS APPROACHING I-80 DOWN
IN IOWA. MODELS OF BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAM VARIETY ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS BAND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE STALLING OUT OVERNIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL MN OVER TOWARD NW WI
AS A SFC LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SRN MN AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE STATE. FOLLOWED THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE HOPWRF
MEMBERS AND HRRR WITH THE POPS IN BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS UP
THROUGH ABOUT THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A DRY PERIOD LOOKS
TO GET ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS A MONTEVIDEO/TWIN CITIES/EAU CLAIRE LINE.

WHERE A FAIR DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LIES IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THIS
BAND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OK MOVES TOWARD WI. THERE
SHOULD BE A BAND OF MOD TO HEAVY RAIN THAT LIFTS NORTH WITH THIS
WAVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT WHERE IT GOES IS
WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY LIES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRING THIS BAND
ACROSS WRN WI WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF TAKE IT MORE TOWARD GREEN BAY. THE
SHORT TERM MODELS...WHICH NOW END MONDAY MORNING WOULD FAVOR THE ERN
SOLUTION BEING CORRECT. IF THAT IS THAT CASE...THEN A DRY SLOT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY MEMORIAL DAY OUTSIDE OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN BAND
ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTION WOULD HAVE YET ANOTHER
WASHOUT FOR FOLKS IN WRN WI. HARD TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BET WET OR
DRY...SO JUST REDUCED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN OUR EAST
MONDAY MORNING GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.

OTHER CHANGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WAS TO REMOVE MOST OF THE THUNDER
MENTION AS WE JUST DO NOT SEE ANY INSTABILITY DEVELOP. THE LONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MN MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 70...ALLOWING FOR A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE TO DEVELOP. CAMS ALSO SHOW THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
FIRING OFF STORMS IN WRN IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY START
GETTING NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW...WITH CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MN
EXPECTED...DID DROP HIGHS DOWN TO JUST THE LOW 60S THERE...WHILE THE
RETURN OF SW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SRN MN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM CLOSER TO LATE MAY NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WE PICK UP THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE MENTIONED THE THREAT FOR THUNDER IN FAR SOUTHERN
MN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO EXACTLY
HOW FAR NORTH STORMS WILL END UP. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE 12Z AND 18Z GUIDANCE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 21Z-
00Z. THE AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE /WRF-ARW...WRF-NMM...NAM NEST/
SUPPORTS A HEALTHY EAST-WEST ORIENTATED LINE OF CONVECTION
BREAKING OUT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IA/MN IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING INSTABILITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAN`T RE RULED OUT AT THIS POINT.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLOW TO CLEAR THE EASTERN FORECAST ON
TUESDAY...SO WE FELT IT WAS BEST TO LINGER THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI UNTIL BUILDING
HEIGHTS KICK THE FRONT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AT THE
MOMENT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH MN/WI
LATE IN THE WEEK. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD SEE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN FALL GIVEN
ANOTHER SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WHAT IS A CERTAINTY IS RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF. RAIN SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW WILL BECOME
ANCHORED TONIGHT FROM WC MN TOWARD NW WI...WITH PRECIP LIKELY
ENDING AFTER 6Z FOR RWF AND POSSIBLY MSP. ALSO A CERTAINTY ARE
CIGS GOING UNDER VFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. CURRENT TAFS
ARE PROBABLY A BIT OPTIMISTIC ON WHEN MVFR/IFR CIGS MOVE IN...AS
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO MAKE A BIT MORE NRN PROGRESS INTO
SRN MN. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT AS A
SFC LOW BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE CENTERED NEAR EAU. WITH THE LOW
PASSING OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT DIRECTION WILL
GET A BIT TRICKY TO PIN DOWN...BUT FOLLOWED THE TREND OF THE SREF
FOR DIRECTIONS WITH THE 18Z TAFS.

KMSP...SREF PROBS FOR IFR CIGS AFTER 6Z INCREASE TO ALMOST
100%...SO FEEL CONFIDENT IN CIGS STARTING OFF MONDAY UNDER 1K FT.
CONFIDENT IN RAIN FALLING AS WELL THROUGH ABOUT 4Z...BUT AFTER
THAT IT MAY BE MOSTLY DRY AT MSP FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
PRECIP STAYS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIELD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG


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