Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 011010
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
510 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A WEAK LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST WI TO SOUTHWEST MN HAVE BEEN DRIVING THE
PROLONGED VERY LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHERN MN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE FEATURES FADE AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY SEE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN TOWARD EAU CLAIRE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTHWEST...CLOUDS WILL SCATTER...WITH NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT ONE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS...WITH
READINGS TOPPING OUT FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS SPUNKY AS
SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 MPH.

WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 30S...SHOULD
BE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. THIS WILL
MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST...PRIMARILY FROM NORTH CENTRAL
MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI /GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF A PRINCETON MN
TO NEW RICHMOND WI LINE/.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ONLY CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL COME TUESDAY
AFTN AND EVENING FOR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. A STRONG SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUE/TUE NIGHT. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO QPF AMTS WILL BE LIGHT AND ACTIVITY
WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WX FOR WED BEFORE A DRY AND WARM PERIOD
DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

PAST WEDNESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING AN
OMEGA TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR NORTH AMERICA. TWO
AREAS OF UPPER LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST AND
EAST COASTS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S.
WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WX SYSTEMS WILL BE INCLINED TO REMAIN
STAGNATE AND MOVE LITTLE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME TYPE OF LONG WAVE
PATTERN SHIFT BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DEVELOP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST THRU NEXT WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES WILL
SLOWLY MODERATE WITH THE WARMEST READINGS LIKELY CENTERED NEAR THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FAIRLY BENIGN TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. BAND OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SCRAPE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA TODAY...BUT
IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF SITES. COULD SEE SPRINKLES AT
KEAU...BUT NO VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED. SCT-BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING...THEN CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...WITH 16-18KT GUSTS DEVELOPING LATE
MORNING. SPEEDS DECLINE TO AROUND 5KTS AROUND 00Z...THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

KMSP...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND WNW AT 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND N AT 12 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS



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