Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 112045
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

High pressure ridge, just west of the MN/Dakotas border, will slowly
move east tonight and extend across MN by Saturday morning. Gusty
winds in eastern MN and western WI will drop off this evening.
Meanwhile, there has been enough residual moisture to result in
widespread cu across the entire region. A more concentrated area of
moisture in central MN and cool temps aloft has led to some isolated
showers. Lightning strikes have not yet been noted, but there may be
one or two cells that intensify to that point.  After the clouds and
showers dissipate, tonight should be very quiet, with light winds
and temps into the 50s. A few of the typical cool spots may see some
upper 40s.

As for fog potential, most short term models indicate late tonight
and Saturday morning will have less low level moisture than what we
had this morning. But a very shallow layer of decent moisture is
still evident. So some patchy fog may occur in some spots. Have
maintained fog in the grids for late tonight.

There is evidence of a lead short wave tomorrow, ahead of the main
wave Saturday night and Sunday. The lead short wave may reach west
central and southwest MN late Saturday morning, but weaken as it
treks east. Thus have held on to chance pops for that area, but it
does not look like it will make much eastward progress.  Max temps
tomorrow should mostly be in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Continued with a blended guidance for the long range forecast. A
thunderstorm complex appears likely across western MN for Sunday
morning, but the thermodynamic and deep shear environment show
little in the way of severe weather potential. Storm Prediction
Center continues to only have general thunder outlooked for the
region.

The upper level wave driving this precip will shift southeast
Sunday night and high pressure will build in the wake of this
system. Upstream a PV anomaly across the northern Rockies will
lead to lee side troughing which will favor southerly flow across
the Upper Midwest and in increase in the heat and humidity. Not
expecting dangerous heat by any means, but should see a noticeable
change by late Monday/Tuesday. Looking ahead, shower and
thunderstorm chances will follow this heat and humidity as the
upper level wave migrates east and bring a surface trough across
the region with weak low level convergence.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Plenty of cu have developed, and these will persist into the
early evening. They are most widespread in central MN and western
WI, but will spread into southern MN.

Satellite imagery shows that some of the cu have some decent
vertical development. There are some of the latest short term
models that develop isolated showers this afternoon. That is
certainly possible, but not certain enough to add anything yet to
the tafs.

Late tonight, doubt there will be as much fog as Friday morning,
as moisture is projected to be in a much shallower layer. But that
will be something to watch.

KMSP...Healthy field of cu have developed, and there may be a
shower near the airfield this afternoon. Not confident enough yet
to add anything, but it does need to be watched. Otherwise, doubt
there will be any late night fog tonight, as there is less low
level moisture.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat PM...VFR. Wind light/variable.
Sun...VFR. Slight Chc SHRA/TSRA afternoon. Wind SE 5 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...TDK



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