Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 180858
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
358 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Sunny and cool with light winds today. There really isn`t much
else to say about the weather other than that. Early morning water
vapor imagery continued to show upper level ridging across the
Midwest. A weak shortwave was located upstream over south central
Canada, but this become washed out with weakening winds as it
slowly moves eastward. Pwat values will linger around 0.50
inches...which is testimate to the dry airmass that is in place
across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed May 18 2016

Forecast models continue to advertise a more active weather
pattern next week as southwest flow brings increased boundary
layer moisture together with upper level forcing for ascent. The
end result will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
for most of next week.

Starting out, moisture will increase slightly as H925 winds become
southerly as the high pressure moves eastward. However there is
not a sustained feed off the Gulf, so only expect modest increases
in boundary layer moisture. Dewpoints will go from the mid 30s
today, to mid 40s Friday, and mid 50s Monday.

Although this will be a noticeable change, the mid 50s dewpoints
is arguably the limiting factor for strong to severe thunderstorms
next week. Mid level lapse rates of 7 to 8C will move across the
region, but the relatively dry boundary layer only yields SBCAPE
around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. This will be sufficient for convection,
but not anticipating a significant threat for widespread severe
weather unless we are able to generate more instability. However,
the deep layer shear profiles are favorable, showing veering with
height, and around 30 to 40 kts of shear in the 0-6km layer. For
that reason do not want to rule out the threat for severe weather.
Afterall it is getting close to the end of May, and the set up as
is should produce a few strong thunderstorms. If the instability
become more favorable, then will see a much better potential for
severe storms on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

High pressure will prevail throughout this TAF period. Generally
light and variable winds overnight will become southerly mid-to-
late afternoon tomorrow with speeds around 5 knots. Solid VFR
conditions expected with only few to scattered high clouds moving
in from the west during the day.

KMSP...VFR throughout this TAF period with no aviation impacts
expected through Thursday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ014>016-
     023>028.

MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ044-045-052-
     053.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC



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