Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 061806
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE MAIN DILEMMA IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
GENERATE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL /AN INCH OR LESS/ LATER TONIGHT AS A
SHRTWV MOVES RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

THIS SHRTWV IN QUESTION IS EVIDENT ON VIS/FOG/WV IMAGERY IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. EVEN THOUGH MODELS GENERATE A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION...BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT. MORE CONFIDENT ON ONLY VIRGA/FLURRIES AT BEST...BUT THE LATEST
CAMS DO SUPPORT A SMALL AREA OF MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS FAR MPX FAR
N/NE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. EARLIER FORECAST HAD 20-40% CHC
OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE GENERAL AREA WHERE THE CAMS HAVE MEASURABLE
SNOW...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE
20S/30S. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WIND SPDS
TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING UPSTREAM OBS IN MT/ND AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA REMAINING
IN THE 20S/30S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CONUS AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER
HUDSON BAY. A FEW SPOKES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF AND GEM MODELS...WHICH BRING LIGHT
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SUCH WAVE INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WERE THE PREFERRED MODELS FOR PRECIP
CHANCES. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE PRIMARILY SNOW AS THE PRECIP
TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AN INCH ALONG/SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY DRY...WITH
THE MAIN HEADLINE BEING THE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...850MB TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE
EXPECTED...WITH A HEALTHY SOUTHWEST WIND PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
MIXING TO YIELD HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED CANADIAN CYCLONE DIPS A BIT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. THE
06.00Z GFS WANTS TO SINK THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/TEMP REDUCTIONS
WELL SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHILE THE 06.00Z ECMWF AND
GEM KEEP THE RIDGING IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE
MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WHICH FAVORS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...VERSUS THE 20S AND 30S ILLUSTRATED BY THE GFS.

THE GLANCING BLOW OF COLDER AIR DEPICTED BY THE GFS SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL MODELS FORECASTING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL GO ACROSS
NRN MN TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS...BUT THE LOW LEVELS LOOK TO STAY DRY ENOUGH OUTSIDE OF
NRN MN TO KEEP ALL MPX TAFS DRY. BIGGER QUESTION WITH THIS WAVE IS
WHAT WILL THE EXTENT OF MVFR STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF ITS FRONT BE.
GFSLAMP DOWNPLAYS THIS THREAT QUITE A BIT...BUT RAP CPDS SUPPORT
AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS COMING THROUGH. TIMED 4/5 HOUR
WINDOWS FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT THE RAP SHOWS.
BESIDE THE CLOUDS...IT LOOKS BREEZY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WITH TOP OF THE MIXING CHANNEL WINDS AT RWF UP AT
30KTS...SO BROUGHT GUSTS IN SAT MORNING AS WELL.

KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MSP REMAINS DRY...WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN VIRGA EXPECTED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR THREAT IN THE
MORNING...BUT BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN IS WHAT WOULD BE HERE IN THE MORNING IF IT CAN
HOLD TOGETHER.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/-SN. WINDS WSW TO WNW 10 KTS.
MON/TUE...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MPG


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