Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 270104
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
804 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LO PRES SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW OVR MOST OF THE
AKQ CWA WAS WELL OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST LATE THIS AFTN. JUST
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENG UNTIL UPR
LEVEL ENERGY EXITS OFFSHR. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTL CLOUDY TNGT
WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNGT ACRS THE NRN COUNTIES.
MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE UPR TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HI PRES WILL SLOWLY BLD IN FM THE NW FRI THRU SAT...THEN MOVES OFF
THE CST ON SUN. PARTLY SUNNY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COLD ON FRI WITH
HIGHS RANGING THRU THE 30S. A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE ACRS EXTRM NNE
COUNTIES IN THE MORNG. PARTLY CLOUDY AND VERY COLD FRI NGT WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S. PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD ON
SAT WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 20S TO MID 30S.

DRY SAT NGT UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS RANGING FM
THE MID TEENS TO LWR 20S. HI PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE CST ON SUN
AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FM THE W. WINDS WILL BECOME SE OR S
SUN AFTN AND EVENG IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM HELPING BOOST TEMPS
INTO THE UPR 30S TO LWR 40S. KEPT SUN DRY FOR NOW WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING N OF THE
REGION...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. AT THIS
TIME 40-50% POPS ARE FORECAST NE...WITH 30-40% ELSEWHERE. EXPECTING
MAINLY -RA AS LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY THIS TIME.
THE COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING N OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE MID 30S...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S NE...TO THE LOW/MID 50S SW. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S N...TO LOW/MID 30S S. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE REGION AND LINGER
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AT THIS TIME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHALLENGING AND BE DICTATED BY THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES S OF THE BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY TO
BE MILD AND MORE SPRING LIKE...WHILE COOL (BUT MORE SEASONAL/WITHIN
-1 ST DEV) CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE BOUNDARY.
REGARDLESS...PCPN TYPE APPEARS TO BE ALL -RA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY MOVE IN TO THE AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WEAK CAD SETUP MAY PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS FRI AFTN.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH N TO NE WINDS
PREVAILING.

WILL CONTINUE TO APPEND `AMD NOT SKED` AT KECG DUE TO COMMS ISSUE
AT KECG ASOS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW DEPARTS. WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NRN BAY AND RIVERS ARE AOB 15KT SO
THE SCAS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. A 15-20KT NNE WIND SHOULD
PERSIST OVER THE LOWER BAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO 10-15KT. HOWEVER...4-6FT WAVES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY...SO THE SCA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SEAS
HAVE RISEN TO 10-12FT...WITH 8-10FT NEARSHORE WAVES OFF VA BEACH AND
THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS. AT THIS TIME THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 06Z. SCAS FOR THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY N/FRIDAY NIGHT S AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS N OF THE REGION TONIGHT
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL PERSIST AND
THE WIND WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY...ALTHOUGH CURRENT FORECAST SPEEDS
AVERAGE AOB 15KT. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A SURGE FRIDAY
NIGHT TO PRODUCE LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS IN THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE W TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS AT RICHMOND AND NORFOLK DATE BACK INTO THE LATE
1800S...WITH SOME NOTABLE TOP TEN RANKS IN SNOW AND TEMPERATURE
VERY LIKELY.

AVG TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH:

RICHMOND: 31.5 F (-9.1 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 6TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1979.

NORFOLK: 32.9 F (-9.5 FROM AVG). THIS WOULD RANK AS THE 4TH
COLDEST FEB ON RECORD AND THE COLDEST SINCE 1978.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 25TH:

* RICHMOND: 7.2" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1983 WITH 21.4"). THE
  10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1952 WITH 11.0".

  - UNOFFICIAL SNOW TOTAL FEB 25-26TH (CURRENT STORM) 5.0".
  - UNOFFICIAL MONTHLY (THROUGH THE 26TH) TOTAL 12.2" MAKING
  CURRENT MONTH #9 ALL-TIME.

* NORFOLK: 6.0" (SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1989 WITH 24.4"). THE
  10TH SNOWIEST FEB OCCURRED IN 1937 WITH 9.8".

  - UNOFFICIAL SNOW TOTAL FEB 25-26TH (CURRENT STORM) 5.6".
  - UNOFFICIAL MONTHLY (THROUGH THE 26TH) TOTAL 11.5" MAKING
  CURRENT MONTH #7 ALL-TIME.

ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES (SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING):

          2/28      3/1      ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH
        _______   _______    __________________________________________
RIC     -1/1934   11/1937     10 MARCH 4 2009
ORF     17/1934   18/1980     14 MARCH 14 1888
SBY     13/1950   13/1980      1 MARCH 3,4 2009 AND MARCH 9 1911
ECG     14/1934   16/1937     16 MARCH 1 1937 AND MARCH 4 1943

RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY):

            2/27      2/28
          _______   _______
RIC       23/1934   28/1934
ORF       24/1934   30/1934
SBY       24/1934   29/1934
ECG       33/1963   33/1934

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...ALB/DAP
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...






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