Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 241156
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service WAKEFIELD VA
656 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the west today into tonight as low
pressure persists off the southeast coast. The front crosses
the local area late Saturday, with high pressure returning for
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest sfc analysis shows a complex area of low pres over the
Mid-MS Valley, high pres well offshore, and another low pres
systm just east of FL. Patchy fog is psbl this morng especially
over the southern half of the fa with lack of cloudiness and
dewpoints in the 50s, but not expected to be that widespread as
winds remain up to ~5 kt in many spots. Include some sct
sprinkles over far SE areas as well this morng where the best
moisture will be alongside some weak mid-level energy. Otws...a
dry day is on tap with a partly/mostly sunny sky. With southerly
low-level flow continuing, temps will be well above normal as
they were yesterday. See climate section below for the day`s
records. Records less likely to be broken today. Currently
forecasting highs in the mid to upr 70s most spots, lwr 70s near
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Continued warm and partly cloudy tngt with low temps mainly in
the mid 50s to possibly around 60 F in the warmest locales.

Latest models remain in good agreement handling a cold front
moving east from the OH Valley tngt, reaching the Appalachians
Sat morning, and pushing through the CWA Sat aftn to early
evening. Mid/upper level trough progged to be located over the
western Great lakes at 12Z/Sat...and moving NE to Ontario
through the day. Potent mid level shortwave looks to become
somewhat sheared out as it crosses the Mtns and moves through
the local area Sat aftn/evening, with some dry slotting moving
in rather quickly late Sat aftn/Sat evening from the SW. SPC day
2 outlook highlights VA and MD in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms in association with a low CAPE/high shear
environment. Main threat would be damaging wind gusts, but attm
there is uncertainty over coverage of convection due to the
potential dry slot. High temps Sat will range from the upper 70s
southeast to the lower 70s N and NW where precip will arrive
earlier and be of higher coverage. Lingered a chc for showers
into the early evening near the cost, otherwise turning sharply
colder Sat night with lows in the 30s inland to lower 40s
southeast zones.

Dry/mostly sunny and much cooler Sunday with breezy WNW winds
diminishing by mid aftn from SW to NE as high pressure builds in
from the WSW. Highs will actually be close to normal for a
change, ranging from the upper 50s south to the low/mid 50s
across the NE. Very dry aftn with dew pts into the teens and RH
values mainly 20-25%, though winds may diminish enough to keep
Fire Wx threat from being a concern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc hi pres drifts over the FA Sun night...resulting in mainly
SKC and chilly conditions. Quick moving low pressure tracks from
the OH Valley Mon across the FA Mon night w/ increasing
cloudiness and PoPs (30-50%). Another warm up begins Tue and
continues through Wed as sfc hi pres sets up off the coast...and
return S flow develops. Mild Tue w/ a frontal boundary lingering
over (srn) portions of the FA (keeping VRB clouds/Mostly cloudy
conditions w/ PoPs 25-45%. A warm front lifting through the FA
Tue night/early Wed may clip the region w/ clouds and low PoPs
(10-20%). Warm/possibly breezy Wed ahead of approaching cold
front from the W. Models push that front through the region late
Wed/Wed night w/ another potential for at least SCT RASH.
Drying/cooler by Thu.

Lows Sun night from the l30s inland to the u30s-around 40F SE.
Highs Mon in the 55-60F on the eastern shore to the l-m60s
elsewhere. Lows Mon night in the m40s NW to the l50s SE. Highs
Tue in the u50s-l60s on the eastern shore to the u60s-l70s
elsewhere. Low Tue night mainly in the l-m50s. Highs Wed in the
60s on the eastern shore to the 70s elsewhere. Highs Thu mainly
from 55-60F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Patchy fog continues over portions of the area this morng with
dewpoints in the upr 40s/50s and lack of mid/high clouds. The
fog has mainly affected KPHF, but may psbly affect KRIC as well
over the next 1-2 hr (accounted for in a TEMPO group). VFR
thereafter everywhere for the remainder of the day with light
winds out of the S/SE and some SCT-BKN mid-level cu.

Outlook: Early morning fog and stratus psbl again Sat morng.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with a cold
front Saturday afternoon and into early evening. Dry/VFR
conditions return for Sunday as surface high pressure builds
into the region. Winds will be gusty out of the WNW at times on
Sunday. Sub-VFR conditions will once again be possible late
Monday and into Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches from
the west.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain centered well off the Mid-Atlantic
coast today as low pressure meanders off the FL coast, and nrn
stream energy remains well north of the region from the Great
Lakes through the Saint Lawrence Valley. High pressure will
slide farther offshore tonight into Saturday as a cold front
pushes from the Ohio Valley Friday night and ewd across the
mountains Saturday. Meanwhile, the srn stream low will gradually
lift newd well off the Southeast coast. A SSE wind will remain
aob 15kt through tonight, and may increase a few kt Saturday due
to a tightening pressure gradient, but should still remain sub-
SCA, although locally stronger gusts are possible with tstms
Saturday aftn/early evening. Seas will generally be 2-4ft today,
before increasing to 3-5ft tonight into Saturday as long period
swell arrives from the low offshore. SCA flags are in effect
beginning this evening for the ocean. Waves in the Bay will
average 1-2ft. The cold front will cross the coast Saturday
night followed by modest CAA and strong pressure rises. SCAs are
likely Saturday night into Sunday morning with a NW wind
averaging 15-25kt with gusts to 30kt and 4-6ft seas/3-4ft waves.
The wind diminishes Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds
into the region. High pressure quickly pushes offshore Sunday
night into Monday with the wind becoming S.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Feb 2017 is shaping up to rank among the warmest on record
given continued warmth over the next week. Daily record highs
are listed below for today and Sat, with the top 3 warmest
February`s on record listed below that. Expecting RIC, ORF to be
the 2nd warmest and ECG to be at least into the top 3 warmest. SBY
looks on track to be 4th or 5th warmest.

Daily Record Highs for Today 2/24 and Saturday 2/25:

           2/24        2/25

RIC     82 in 1985   83 in 1930
ORF     82 in 2012    81 in 1930
SBY     77 in 2012    80 in 1930
ECG     79 in 1985    77 in 1985

Warmest February`s on record (average temps):

* RIC: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
* 1) 49.9 (1890)
* 2) 48.5 (1976)
* 3) 48.1 (1884)

* ORF: (most likely finish for 2017: 2nd warmest)
* 1) 52.4 (1890)
* 2) 50.5 (1909)
* 3) 50.1 (1990)

* SBY: (most likely finish for 2017: 4th warmest)
* 1) 46.1 (1976)
* 2) 45.8 (1984)
* 3) 45.7 (1925)

* ECG: (most likely finish for 2017: 3rd warmest)
* 1) 52.1 (1990)
* 2) 51.8 (1939)
* 3) 50.3 (1976)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Sunday
     for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS/WRS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...AJZ
CLIMATE...


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