Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 241046
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
646 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to influence the weather across the
Mid Atlantic region through the weekend...with little to no
chances for rain. Warmer and more humid conditions return by late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Another relatively cool morning across the area as temperatures
have dropped into the upper 50`s to low 60`s. The surface high is
oriented along the Mid-Atlantic coast this morning, and is progged
to push offshore through the day. The ridge axis remains on the
region, with generally onshore flow near the coast, but winds
become southerly inland. This will allow for moderating low level
thicknesses and slightly warmer daytime temperatures. Highs
forecast solidly in the mid 80`s inland to low 80`s near the
coast. Mid-level moisture remains trapped under the strong
subsidence inversion, resulting in additional cloud cover inland.
Hi-resolution guidance continues to spread light precipitation
over the western Atlantic westward toward the southeast coastal
areas as a weak inverted trough drops under the surface high. A
weak perturbation in the northwest flow drops into the area this
afternoon, coinciding with theta-e advection along the coast.
Based on the consistency in the hi-res guidance, have opted to
increase POP`s to low end chance for isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms Southside Hampton Roads southward to the
Currituck Sound. Little moisture above 800mb will result in only
light precipitation and rainfall amounts of only a few hundredths
of an inch at best (for those that see any precip). Otherwise, sky
becomes partly cloudy to mostly cloudy across the far southeast
area.

The surface high pushes farther offshore tonight with flow
becoming southerly, but light. Another night of near seasonable
lows expected, but slightly warmer than this morning as dewpoints
warm a few degrees. An upstream low amplitude wave drops into the
region tonight, resulting in an increase in mid level clouds over
the Piedmont late. Otherwise, mostly clear sky expected. Lows
generally in the low to mid 60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure slides offshore Thursday as upper level
high pressure centers over the Deep South. Return flow commences
with dewpoints warming back into the mid to upper 60`s, resulting
in more humid conditions. 850Mb temperatures around 18C (+1
standard deviations) creep back into the area, as southerly flow
pushes low level thicknesses warmer. The result is temperatures
warming into the upper 80`s to low 90`s under a partly cloudy sky.
Pressure falls on the lee side of the mountains ahead of an
approaching cold front will result in a lee/thermal trough over
the Piedmont. However, limited moisture and a lack of appreciable
forcing will keep the forecast dry. Mild Thursday night with lows
in the upper 60`s to low 70`s.

The upper high centers over the Mid-Atlantic states Friday,
resulting in a hot day. 850Mb temperatures creep upwards of 18-20C
(approaching +2 standard deviations). The upstream cold front and
return flow will help push temperatures solidly into the mid 90`s
(+1 to +1.5 standard deviations) inland. Cooler along the coast.
Thicknesses indicate temps could potentially warm into the mid to
upper 90`s. The air mass remains continental with the high
overhead, with dewpoints only forecast in the mid to upper 60`s.
This will help keep heat indices in check. The front drops into
the forecast area late Friday, but with the upper high over the
area, dry conditions will prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Benign and dry conditions are expected to prevail late this week
through the weekend into early next week as a mid/upper level
anticyclone becomes anchored over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
The presence of the high will keep the main upper jet energy will
north of the local area resulting in dry conditions through at least
Monday. The ridge may get displaced to the south just enough by
Tuesday to support a minimal (20%) chc of showers/tstms. Highs
Saturday through Tuesday should range from the mid 80s at the coast
to the upper 80s/low 90s inland. Lows through the period average in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains over the region today, with scattered cu
expected inland this afternoon. Another area of mid level clouds
expected over the far southeast local area as an inverted trough
over the western Atlantic approaches the coast. Light showers and
possible a rumble of thunder not out of the question for KECG.
MVFR ceilings also possible, especially KECG with any showers.

OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR with no precipitation is forecast through
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain near the coast today into tonight
with a light e wind becoming se tonight. The high begins to push
farther offshore Thursday into Thursday night. The wind will become
ssw at 10-15kt later Thursday into Thursday night, with a solid 15kt
possible for a few hours overnight. A cold front approaches from the
northwest Friday and crosses the area late Friday night into
Saturday. The wind will be sw ahead of the front Friday into Friday
night, before becoming northerly behind the front. SCA conditions
are not expected in the wake of the front due to a lack of caa. High
pressure then settles off the New England coast Sunday into early
next week resulting in a potential period of prolonged onshore flow.
Seas average 2-3ft through Saturday with 1-2ft waves in the Bay.
Seas possibly build to 3-4ft Sunday into early next week with
onshore flow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM/LSA
MARINE...AJZ


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