Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 061918
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
318 PM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BEFORE RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LAST TIME WE HAD A SYSTEM WITH THIS MUCH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM
AN UPR LEVEL LOW WAS IN JANUARY. DIFFERENCE HERE IS THAT WE ARE SOME
20-25 DEGREES WARMER WITH LIQUID PCPN INSTEAD OF FROZEN. A SOAKING
RAINFALL ACROSS THE FA WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS RECORDED...
EMBEDDED 2-4 INCHES WITH ONE MAX OVER MECKLENBURG/LUNENBURG CNTYS
AND A SECONDARY MAX OVER NORTHAMPTON CNTY IVOF CAPE CHARLES.

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DELMARVA THIS EVENING...WHICH RESULTS IN THE SYSTEM BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT RETROGRADES WEST AND ONTO THE NJ COAST.
MEANWHILE...LINGERING TROFINESS KEEPS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FA FOR POPS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING THEN TAPER OFF AND
EVEN END ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. THIS DUE TO TWO
THINGS...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR THAT CONTINUES TO
ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTM. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES WITH LOW CHC AFTER MIDNITE. CLDY TO MSTLY CLDY SKIES.
LOWS IN THE U40S-L50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STACKED LOW GETS A PUSH EAST AND FURTHER OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPSTREAM TROF. LINGERING
MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST RESULTS IN KEEPING LOW CHC POPS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS BREAK RESULTING IN SKIES BECOMING PT SUNNY.
ENOUGH MOISTURE NOTED IN MID LEVELS FOR A FEW AFTRN SHWRS TO DEVELOP
SO WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS THRU THE DAY. WARMER WITH HIGHS 70-75
EXCEPT M-U60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE SAT NITE. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
FOR THIS BNDRY TO TAP...BUT MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK S/W DROPPING SE
PROVIDING JUST ENUF MOISTURE FOR LOW CHC SHWRS WITH FROPA. LOWS 55-60.

MODELS STALL THE BNDRY ACROSS NC SUN THEN DIFFER ON HOW FAST IT RETURNS
NORTH AS A WARM FRNT. TSCTNS SHOW MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS SO EXPECT
PT SUNNY SKIES SUNDAY WITH SLGHT CHC DIURNAL POPS. HIGHS L-M70S NORTH...
75-80 SOUTH.

PT CLDY SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 50S. WARM FRONT REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY MONDAY WITH YET ANOTHER S/W SLIDING SE. EXPECT SOME
CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ACROSS THE MTS AFTER 18Z THEN DRIFT SE. WILL
CARRY SLGHT CHC POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TMPS TRICKY DEPENDING ON
THE FRONTAL POSITION. HIGHS FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS THE ERN SHORE TO
THE L80S SOUTHERN TIER CNTYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE SPRING TIME WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNSETTELED. LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL/SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK KEEPING AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. DO NOT THINK NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEARLY
WET AS THIS WEEK...HOWEVER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WILL GENERALLY NEED CHANCE POPS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS FOR THE SPECIFICS...AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE
TO THE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST...EXPECT A WARM FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA IN THE WARM
SECTOR BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ESPECIALLY TUE AFTN THROUGH WED AS HEIGHTS LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST DRYING LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THU BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL END UP BEING ABOVE NORMAL
AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE HUMID ESPECIALLY WED/THU WITH DEW POINTS
LIKELY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW ARE BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER DELAWARE BAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF RAIN STILL FROM THE VA NORTHERN NECK COUNTIES
NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
BAND...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO FIRE AS SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR SOME HEATING. IN THESE AREAS...WHICH
INCLUDE RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG...THE CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED FROM IFR TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THE SHOWERS, BUT OTHER WISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AT
SBY...THEY ARE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW AND THE WRAP AROUND
RAIN...SO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT UNTIL THE BAND BREAKS
DOWN THIS EVENING.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL OVERNIGHT AND THE UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH OFF THE COAST TOWARD MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE A BIG QUESTION IS WILL FOG
OR STRATUS FORM OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS A RESULT
OF THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
MORE OF JUST OVERCAST CONDITIONS BETWEEN 3K - 5K FT...NOT ALLOWING
MUCH COOLING FOR THE FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION. SO HAVE ADDED SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR RIC/PHF/SBY OVERNIGHT WITH FOG AND LOWER
CLOUDS...BUT HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ORF/ECG. ONCE THE
DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS ON SATURDAY...SHOULD SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK...SCT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT TRIES TO LIFT BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ON MONDAY WITH
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD BRINGS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LO PRES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA CST WITH A
COLD FRNT OVER THE NRN PLAINS STATES. THE LO WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
NEAR THE NJ CST TNGT WHILE WEAKENING. AS FOR HEADLINES...ENDED THE
SCA OVER SRN CSTL WTRS WHERE SEAS HAVE DROPPED BLO 5 FT...AND
EXTENDED THE SCA TO 1 AM FOR NRN CSTL WTRS WHERE SEAS CONTINUE TO BE
6-7 FT OUT 20 NM. OTWS...BENIGN MARINE CONDS TNGT WITH WINDS AOB 10
KT. SIMILAR WINDS SAT AS THE SFC LO FURTHER WEAKENS AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRNT APPROACHES FM THE W. THE FRNT DROPS INTO
THE AREA ON SUN...WITH 3-4 FT SEAS OVER CSTL WTRS AND 2-3 FT WAVES
OVER THE BAY. WINDS BCM NW 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRNT...WITH NOT
ENOUGH CAA BEHIND THE FRNT TO REACH SCA CRITERIA. SUB-SCA CONDS
CONTINUE THEREAFTER THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WARM FRNT
LIFTS N OF THE AREA AND SLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH RAIN DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANY SMALL
STREAM WATER PROBABLY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE LARGER RIVERS ARE CONTINUING TO RISE IN THE CHOWAN
AND APPOMATTOX BASINS. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAWRENCEVILLE ON THE MEHERRIN RIVER WITH CREST EXPECT NEAR 19 FT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE NOTTOWAY RIVER...THE BLACKWATER RIVER AND
APPOMATTOX RIVERS ARE RUNNING HIGH...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE TIDE
CYCLES...WITH A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER
COUNTY WHERE BISHOPS HEAD WILL REACH MODERATE FLOODING TGNT...AND
PSBLY THIS AFTN. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ~1.5 FT HAVE ALREADY RESULTED
IN WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF SOME MODERATE
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS AROUND THE LOWER BAY (VA BEACH/NORTHAMPTON
VA). EPARTURES WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO FALL. SOME OTHER LOCALIZED
AREAS COULD APPROACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLDS, MOST
LIKELY WITH THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDE CYCLE TNGT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ025.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ022-023.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ081-
     084>086-089-090-093-095>098-522>525.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075>078.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ESS
MARINE...MAS
HYDROLOGY...ESS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS



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