Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 220252
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1052 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered northwest of the area through the
weekend while Tropical Cyclone Jose lingers off the New England
Coast. Hurricane Maria is expected to track between the Bahamas
and Bermuda early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure, centered over the Central Appalachians from
Central WV to Central PA, remains in control across the region
tonight. The sky is mainly clear except for some light cirrus
from TS Jose that is moving across northern portions of the CWA.
So expect dry weather overnight with temperatures very close to
last nights readings, although expect readings to be a degree or
two higher as the atmosphere continues to warm a degree or two
each night.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain centered to the N-NW of the local area
through the weekend. Sky conditions will be no worse than partly
to mostly sunny. Continued warm and dry with highs generally in
the low/mid 80s, except mid/upr 70s at the beaches. Lows in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure remains strong invof ern Great Lakes and interior
NE CONUS late in the weekend into Mon before weakening
thereafter. Meanwhile...a much weakened/remnant circulation (of
Jose) slowly circulates SSE of New England. Other than periodic
clouds...esp at the coast by/over the weekend-Mon due to light
onshore flow...expecting dry/mainly warm. Lows Sun night mainly
in the m-u60s. Highs Mon in the u70s-around 80F at the
coast...m80s inland.

Wx conditions Tue-Wed remain dependent on track of Tropical
Cyclone Maria. A track closer to the coast (than that of Jose)
would bring increasing winds/PoPs...esp ern portions of FA...more
to the E would result in drier-continued warm wx. For now...generally
going w/ partly cloudy w/ low PoPs (E portions). Monitor forecasts
from TPC on Maria through the weekend. Dry/warm wx expected Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will influence the
weather pattern with VFR conditions and mostly light wind. Some
patchy fog may again develop over the area but intensity and
location is difficult to dtermine.

Outlook: Generally VFR/dry conditions are anticipated through the
weekend period as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Jose located SE of Cape Cod early this afternoon
is forecast to slowly back to the WSW through Sunday. Meanwhile,
Hurricane Maria is located N of the Dominican Republic and is
forecast to track to the NNW through Sat and then NNE through
Mon/Tue about equidistant from the Carolina coast and Bermuda.

Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with seas
generally 3-6ft. Some portions of the area will have seas fall
below 5 ft at times next couple days. However...the SCA for
hazardous seas will continue and will be extended to 22z Sat as
the ENE swell continues. Swell arrives from Maria most likely
beginning late in the weekend. SCAs for seas will likely be
needed through Sun. The bulk of the forecast guidance keeps
Maria offshore during the early to middle portions of next week.
Monitor the TPC forecast for the official forecast track of
Maria through the weekend. A further increase in seas is
expected Mon-Wed along with an increasing N wind Tues-Wed.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures continue to fall today, with tidal departures
generally averaging less than 1.5 ft above normal tide. This has
allowed all of our sites to stay below flood stage during
today`s high tide, with the exception of Lewisetta, Bishops Head
and Bayford, which may go one more high tide cycle late this
afternoon into this evening with minor flooding. As such, will
cancel/expire all of the coastal flood advisories with the
exception of the central Bay. Water levels should remain
elevated all all sites throught the weekend, but given that the
swell is not as large as what it has been, they should stay just
below flood after tomorrow. Will need to watch for additional
flooding next week, especially in the bay, as the swell from
Maria moves into the area.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues today and possibly tomorrow as swell/nearshore
waves will be slow to subside.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for VAZ075-077-
     078-084>086.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ESS/JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...AJB/JDM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...JDM/JEF
MARINE...AJZ/ALB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



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