Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 250624

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
124 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

A frontal boundary will stall over southern Virginia will lift
back north as a warm front this morning. A cold front crosses
the Mid Atlantic later this afternoon through tonight and
settles across North Carolina on Monday. High pressure returns
by Tuesday.


Latest analysis indicating backdoor cold front now situated
within or just south of the route 460 corridor, with
temperatures in the 40s to lower-mid 50s along and N of the
boundary, with 60s to the south. Not much in the way of any
rain, but some patchy drizzle is likely over northern zones
through 12Z. Fog is still patchy in nature, though is starting
to become more widespread across the eastern shore and have
increased the mention for dense fog there from 09-12Z and will
need to monitor for potential dense fog advisory issuance if
vsbys that currently avg 1/2SM were to continue to drop.
Temperatures through 12Z will be fairly steady, and will likely
rise several degrees from 09-12Z over southern VA as the front
lifts back N.


A cold front approaches from the W Sunday morning. This front
should be slow to cross the area given the strength of the
ridge, so have opted for an evening frontal passage, although
24/12z model consensus suggests that thicker mid/high clouds
arrive over the Piedmont during the aftn, which could have some
impact on high temperatures. Nevertheless, still very warm
Sunday with high temperatures in the low/mid 70s over the
Piedmont, upper 70s to low 80s for s-central/SE VA and NE NC,
with low/mid 70s over the Ern Shore, and locally mid/upper 60s
for the MD Beaches. See the climate section for recored highs.
The best upper level forcing lifts well N of the area, so PoPs
at this time are limited to 20-40% ahead of and along the front.
Forecast soundings do depict some steeper lapse rates within
the 850-700mb layer, but rather stable above that layer, Given
this, have not included any thunder at this time.

The cold front drops across the area Sunday night and settles
over NC Monday. A secondary area of low pressure tracks along
the front along with some mid-level energy and this is expected
to bring a period of light rain mainly across srn VA/NE NC
(60-80% PoPs) overnight Sunday night through midday Monday.
Cooler behind the front, but still above normal with lows Sunday
night in the upper 40s N to mid 50s S. Highs Monday in the
upper 50s to around 60F, but these values could fall during the
day, especially SE.

1030mb high pressure builds in from the NW Monday night. Mostly
clear, and actually almost seasonably cool with overnight low
temperatures in the mid 30s N to low 40s SE. High pressure
remains in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday. Sunny
with high temperatures moderating into the mid/upper 50s over
the Ern Shore to the low 60s farther inland.


High pressure over the area Tuesday shifts offshore Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night dip down to around 40
degrees. Dry for much of the day on Wednesday with showers
approaching the southwest portions of the area after 18Z. Highs
Wednesday top out in the low to mid 60s and drop to near 50
degrees Wednesday night.

Strong area of low pressure develops over the southern Plains
Wednesday moving into the Great Lakes by Thursday. Moisture
increases across the region Wednesday night into Thursday as a
warm front lifts across the region. A trailing cold front is
expected to cross the region on Thursday. Models continue to
show a decent moisture feed from the southwest so will continue
to carry likely PoPs for Wednesday night and Thursday. Any
chances for thunder will depend on the actual timing of the cold
frontal passage. It should be a pretty decent rainfall for much
of the region with models showing in excess of an inch of QPF
with this system. Highs on Thursday low to mid 60s and lows
Thursday night mid to upper 40s.

Cold front will have cleared the area by Friday bringing a
return to more seasonable temperatures. A few showers cannot be
ruled out on Friday, especially near the coast. Cooler weather
makes a return for Saturday. Highs on Friday will range from the
mid to upper 50s and highs on Saturday will range from the low
to mid 50s.


Backdoor cold front affecting all sites except KECG early this
morning. KORF has just scattered out and is now also VFR with
just mid clouds at 7-10k ft. KRIC/KPHF will have IFR/LIFR cigs
(and vsbys at KRIC) through the next few hrs. KSBY expected to
be LIFR for both cigs and vsbys through at least 12Z as the
front will be slow to move back N. As the front lifts N, low
level jet at ~2k ft will blow from the SW at 40-45kt and create
LLWS from approximately 10-14Z this morning. All sites expected
improve to VFR later this morning except for potentially the far
north where lower ceilings may linger a bit longer. SCT to BKN
mid and high clouds are expected this afternoon with a 10 to 15
knot wind gusting 20 to 25 knots. Scattered showers possible in
the afternoon as a cold front approaches the region. Genly VFR
with mid/high clouds and winds shifting from the SW to the NW
this evening (winds will be lighter at this time, mainly <10kt).

Outlook: The cold front will be slowing down as it pushes south
of the local area late tonight into Mon, with the potential for
cig/vsby restrictions along with periods of light rain
overnight Sunday through midday Monday (especially over SE VA
and NE NC). High pressure arrives Monday night and Tuesday
bringing drier conditions to the area. High pressure slides
offshore Wednesday with a low pressure system and associated
cold front impacting the region Wednesday night into Thursday.


As of 8 pm, will be maintaining marine fog advisory north of
Parramore Island on the Atlantic side thru 7am.

Otherwise, offshore high and SSW winds dominate into tonight,
except north where another backdoor cold front will sag south
into the northern waters (winds will shift to the ENE in these
areas). Front lifts back N early Sun morning with a breezy SW
flow on Sunday. Expect the warm airmass over cold water
inversion to keep mixing limited, but still may see some gusts
to around 20 kt during the day over much of the area. Marginal
SCAs are possible, especially Bay and lower James, but low
confidence will preclude issuance at this time. The next cold
front crosses the waters Sun night with a wind shift back to the
N-NE for Mon. No real CAA surges noted behind the front, so
kept winds/seas below SCA levels, but will probably have a few
hrs worth of elevated winds early Monday behind the front, and
again Mon night/early Tue as sfc high pressure builds into the
area from the WNW. High pressure centers over the marine area
Tuesday before pushing offshore again late Wednesday. Sub-SCA
conditions should continue thru midweek.


No record high temps were recorded Saturday. Very warm
temperatures will again prevail today, but with the backdoor
cold front that temporarily dropped through the area, record
high mins will not be set for Norfolk and Salisbury where
readings dropped into the 40s.

* Record Highs/Rec High Mins
* Site: Sun 2/25

* RIC:  83 (1930)...54 (1930)
* ORF:  81 (2017)...59 (1930)
* SBY:  80 (1930)...52 (1930)
* ECG:  78 (2017)...54 (1985)


MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-652.


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