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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 090309
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1009 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN TRACKS
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL VA WITH THE
COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. SOME MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS HAS STARTED TO INCREASE OVER THE MID ATLC BUT SKIES ARE
GENLY STILL MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES ARE VARIABLE AND HAVE ACTUALLY WARMED A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE PAST 2 HRS OVER NORTHERN AREAS (INTO THE 50S) DUE TO
MIXING AND INCREASING CLOUDS. SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS (IN THE
40S) ARE IN PLACE UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST...COLD FRONT PROGGED
TO CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW BEST MOISTURE / FORCING NORTH OF FA BUT
APPEARS ENOUGH ENERGY LAGS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CONTINUE THE LOW CHC
POPS ACROSS ERN SHORE / NRN NECK AREAS. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME ENHANCED LIFT AND LIGHT QPF ACRS SE VA AROUND
SUNRISE SUN MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH SO HAVE ADDED
A 20% POP THERE AS WELL FROM 11Z-15Z. LOWS TONIGHT GENLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTN. AFTER LINGERING CLOUDS
EARLY...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES/DECREASING CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING
AND AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN SAT...BUT STILL
SEASONABLE...HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ON THE ERN SHORE TO
THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY & TUESDAY.

CLEAR SKIES SUN NIGHT ALLOWS FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS IN
THE 30S. PT TO MSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH A SW WIND MON AND TUES.
THIS ALLOWS FOR A DRY AND SPRING LIKE PERIOD. HIGHS MON 60-65 ERN
SHORE...65-70 WEST OF THE BAY. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE 40S. HIGHS TUE
M-U60S ERN SHORE...U60S-L70S WEST OF BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HANDLING THE
STRONG STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
WED. THE GFS TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF. EITHER WAY THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM KY ACROSS VA. MODELS AGREE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY WED AFTERNOON. GOING WITH A MODEL BLEND HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WINDY WITH
GUSTY SOUTH TO SWLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS. LOWS WED
MORNING WILL BE RATHER MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH HIGHS WED
AFTERNOON IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. AFTERNOON HIGHS WED WILL
DEPEND ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND WHEN WINDS
BECOME NW USHERING IN COOLER TEMPS. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
RAPIDLY DEPARTING THE DELMARVA WED EVENING/NIGHT. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM STRONG NWLY WINDS DRIVE A SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS VA AND
DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FALL 100 METERS
FROM 18Z WED TO 18Z THU. LOWS WED NIGHT DROP BACK INTO THE LOW 30S
WITH HIGHS THU STRUGGLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COLDEST
NIGH OF THE WEEK WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN AND LOWS DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THIS COLD SNAP SHOULD
BE RATHER SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START TO REBOUND
FRIDAY INTO THE 50S AND EVEN 60S POSSIBLE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 01Z...A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF SITES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT SBY AND HAVE VCSH THERE FROM 10-13Z. WINDS SHIFT TO
N/NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF IFR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS END BY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 10 PM...EXTENDED SCA HEADLINES THROUGH 1 AM FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS WITH SEAS STILL 5-6 FT.

A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH ENOUGH OF A COLD AIR SURGE TO INCREASE
WINDS TO 15 KT ON THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS BELOW SCA (ALTHOUGH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING). CALMER
CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. WINDS BECOME S TO SW SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SW WELL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUE. SW WINDS INCREASE WED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF KY
TRACKING TOWARDS THE DELMARVA. SW WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO
SCA WED AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL RAPIDLY WITH THE
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF THE COAST WED
NIGHT AND THU EXPECT NW WINDS AND A STRONG COLD AIR SURGE TO
CONTINUE SCA CONDITIONS WED NIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY THU. WINDS
WILL DECREASE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. SEAS
ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SCA LATE NEXT WEEK EVEN
AFTER WINDS SUBSIDE DUE TO A NE SWELL.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...LSA/WRS
MARINE...LSA/JAO