Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 310904
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
404 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY...AND PUSH OFF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE <990 MB NOW
WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGING INTO THE MID ATLC REGION. COLD/CLEAR MORNING
ACRS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME
AREAS WEST OF I-95 ARE INTO THE TEENS (THIS IS WHERE WINDS HAVE
STARTED TO DE-COUPLE). CLOSER TO THE COAST...STILL GETTING
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WINDIER
SPOTS ALONG THE BAY SEEING AN OCCASIONAL GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.
WIND CHILLS ARE AS LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS ON THE ERN SHORE...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS ELSEWHERE. GENERAL THEM WILL BE THAT COLDEST AREAS IN
TERMS OF ACTUAL TEMPERATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO WIND SO NOT ANY
CONCERN FOR A WIND CHILL ADSY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND WILL BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FORM THE NW OVER
THE ERN SHORE...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL SEE DIMINISHING
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTN. SUNNY TODAY...BUT COLD WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND
INTERIOR NE NC TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE MD ERN SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
NAM/GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE HANDLING OF THE SW
STORM SYS...AND A SYS IN THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM DIGGING
INTO THE NCNTRL CONUS. A MORE NRN TRACK...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH PA/NJ WILL YIELD MAINLY RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE CWA. ONLY ISSUE WILL BE FOR A RA/IP MIXTURE AT
ONSET OF PCPN LATE SUN/SUN EVENING DUE TO DRY AIR (DEW PTS IN 20S)
EVEN AS SFC TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE 32 F. TREND OF MDLS CONTINUES
TO BRING PCPN A LITTLE SLOWER INTO THE FA FM THE W THROUGH THE DAY
SUN. XPCG MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS OVR THE FA AS S WNDS DEVELOP.
THUS...RA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FCST P-TYPE SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG.
TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT EARLY SUN EVE (IN THE U30S N...L/M40S
S)...THEN RISE THEREAFTER INTO MON MRNG.

BY MIDDAY/AFTN MON...DRYING TREND TO BEGINNING BUT SUSPECT A BIT
OF A DELAY IN LO LVL CAA (OR ENOUGH COLD AIR TO CATCH THE PCPN
BEFORE IT EXITS) TO CAUSE ANY SGFNT SN THREAT (ON MON). WILL HAVE
A MIX RA/SN SHWRS FOR MNLY NNE PORTIONS (AFT MON MRNG)...MNLY CHC
SHWRS ELSW. HI TEMPS FM THE MID/UPPER 40S NNW TO THE UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME SOME LINGERING SNOW SHWRS OVR CSTL WTRS ERLY MON
EVE...EXPECT CLRG SKIES AND COLD MON NITE AS 1030 MB HIGH APPRCHS
FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO L20S SOUTH
XCPT M20S SERN BEACH AREAS.

RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVRHD ERLY TUE THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MSTLY SUNNY
AND COLD. HIGHS IN THE 30S. MSTLY CLR TUE NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH MID WEEK SYSTM AND OFFER
UP DIFFERENT TIMING AND MOISTURE SCENARIOS...SO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FCST CONTINUES UNTIL SOME KIND OF CONSISTANCE IN SEEN. HOWEVER...
THE TREND IS SLOWER IN BRINGING MSTR NORTH INTO THE FA AS SRN
STREAM LOW DVLPS IN THE NRN GOM THEN TRACKS NE ALONG THE SE AND
PSBLY MID ATLNTC COAST BEFORE PULLING NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.
MODEL GUID SUGGESTS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLN. TRENDED
DRIER/WARMER ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. XPCT INCRG CLDNS WED NIGHT.
WENT WITH LOW CHC POPS ACROSS NC CNTYS WED NIGHT. CHC (LIQUID)
POPS WED NITE WITH MIXED SNOW/RAIN LATE ACROSS NRN MOST CNTYS.
LOWS ARND FREEZING NRN MOST CNTYS TO THE M-U30S OVR THE SOUTH.
RAIN CHCS CONT THU XCPT FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX ERLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NR 50 SE.

IF THE 12Z ECMWF VERIFYS...THE STRNG HIGH PRS KEEPS SRN STREAM LOW
SOUTH WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON FA. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST
OF THIS WINTER GIVEN NO REAL BLOCKING PATTERN SEEN. ITS SOLN WOULD
BE COLDER AND DRIER.

ANTHR ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW BEHIND
THIS SYSTM BY FRIDAY. DCRG CLDNS THU NITE. LOWS IN THE 20S. MSTLY
SUNNY FRI. HIGHS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED INLAND THIS MORNING AOB 10 KT THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. OTHERWISE...DRY/SKC CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THRU THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
INLAND WINDS REMAINING AOB 10 KT. NW GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. DRY/SKC CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SUN AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION
LATE SUN NIGHT-EARLY MON MORNING WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. RAIN ENDS MON
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE/FAIR WEATHER RETURNS TUES AND WEDS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW WEDS NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS OVER THE WATERS DEPICTS LAST EVENINGS COLD
FRONT WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD OVER THE OH
VALLEY. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH LOW LEVEL CAA HAS
RESULTED IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. OPTED TO EXTEND GALE HEADLINES FOR THE BAY AND SRN
COASTAL ZONES THRU 7AM AS 34+ KT GUSTS STILL OBSERVED.
THEREAFTER...CAA WANES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
WATERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW 30 KT. HOWEVER...SCA
CONDITIONS PERSIST THRU THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS
AFTERNOON. 6-9 FT SEAS WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY MORNING...BEFORE
SLOWLY SUBSIDING THRU THE DAY AND FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 5 FT ALL
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE TONIGHT
WITH SLY FLOW AOB 15 KT RETURNING TO THE WATERS. SLY FLOW INCREASES
SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH THE
WATERS. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MON MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER STRONG NWLY SURGE. A PERIOD OF GALES IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT
FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS BUILDS TO 6 TO 9 FT. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TUES AND WEDS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET
TO CROSS THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT.

HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER AS TEMPS HAVE FALLEN AOB 25
DEGS. MODERATE ICING IS EXPECTED THRU MID MORNING. FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED AGAIN MON NIGHT AS AIR TEMPS OVER THE WATER DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S IN TANDEM WITH STRONG NW GUSTS.


&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ635>637.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ630>632-
     634-650-652-654-656.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
     638.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LKB/MPR
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM






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