Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 260141
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
941 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST MONDAY...AND BECOMES CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALING A SFC COLD FRONT ACRS THE OH VALLEY.
THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE WEAK WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM SW AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY TO WNW IN ITS WAKE (WITH AIRMASS ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST ONLY MARGINALLY COOLER). IR SATELLITE SHOWING JUST A FEW
SHOWERS OVER NY/PA WITH JUST A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT. ENOUGH MIXING
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD...RAISED
MINS A FEW DEGREES ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST (KEPT THEM ABOUT THE
SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST ACRS THE INTERIOR SE WHERE WINDS ARE
GENLY CALM). OVERALL...LOWS WILL AVG 50-55 F WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
OVER INTERIOR SE/S VA AND NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRS
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. WEAK CAA COMBINED WITH A COMPRESSED PRS
GRADIENT BEHIND FROPA RESULTS IN A WELL MIXED AIRMASS SUNDAY. XPCT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS (15-25 WITH G30 MPH) ALONG THE COAST...
LIGHTER WINDS (10-20 MPH) WEST OF THE BAY. THE DOWNSLPOING COMPONENT
TO THE WIND ALLOWS TMPS TO REACH BTWN 70-75.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PT TO MSTLY SUNNY DAYS
AND FAIR NIGHTS. COOL SUN NIGHT. LOWS IN THE U30S-L40S...45-50 AT
THE BEACHES. H85 TMPS ARND 13C RESULTS IN HIGHS U60S-L70S MON.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUES RESULTING IN A WRMG TREND.
LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE U40S-M50S. H85 TMPS ARND 16C SPRT HIGHS IN THE
U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST ESPECIALLY TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. INITIAL FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES OF TIMING ON THE FRONT. HAVE CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THEN BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
THE MODELS DIVERGE. HAVE THE ECMWF DEVELOPING A DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US WHILE THE GFS HAS THE CUTOFF DEVELOPING MORE TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE ECMWF IS TOWARD THE
DEEPEST ENSEMBLE SOLUTION. HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IS
SUCH THAT IT COULD SUPPORT THE CUTOFF OVER SOUTHEASTERN US. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL RUNS DEVELOP. EITHER WAY STARTING
ON THURSDAY COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE AND WE HAVE THE COLDEST
AIR THIS FALL ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS DROPS HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
SECTIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S. IF THE WINDS STAY
UP SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROF FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE
REGION OVRNGT. SW TO W WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW AND BECOME BREEZY
BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNG INTO SUN AFTN. GUSTS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT INLAND
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARND 25 KT POSSIBLE ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST. HI
PRES SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION SUN NGT AND MON...THEN
SLIDES OFF THE CST FOR MON NGT INTO WED MORNG. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRY/VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING SSW AT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT MON AFTN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA WED INTO WED EVENG.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRES GRAD ALONG THE BAY AND COAST HAS TIGHTENED THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15KT OVER THE WATER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT BECOMING WEST OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AFTER 2 AM. SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE TO DUE TO LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION (15KT
RIVERS/SOUND...15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT CHES BAY...15-25KT WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30KT COASTAL WATERS FENWICK ISLAND TO VA/NC
BORDER). SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE DUE TO
A W-NW DIRECTION BUT SHOULD AVERAGE 3-4FT FROM 10-20NM. UP TO 5FT
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20NM FROM FENWICK ISLAND TO
CHINCOTEAGUE. WAVES IN THE BAY SHOULD BUILD TO 3 FT BY DAYBREAK. SCA
FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
FENWICK ISLAND TO THE VA/NC BORDER BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON A SCA FOR
THE RIVERS...HOWEVER...THE RIVERS COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDS SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE WATERS ON MONDAY AND THEN SLIDES EWD OFF THE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATER
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN GENERATE SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MID AND LATE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTR COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES / STATE AGENCIES...WILL NOT ISSUE
ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS ATTM. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY
WINDS & RH`S 25 TO 30% ACROSS THE ERN SHORE IN THE FWF. RH`S OVER
THE PIEDMONT WILL DROP TO 20-25% BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LESS WIND.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ632-
     634-654-656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
     631.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TMG/JAO
MARINE...JAB/JAO
FIRE WEATHER...






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.