Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 180724
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
324 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING HIGH PRES OVR THE REGION WITH THE OLD FRONTAL
BNDRY STALLED ALONG THE GULF COAST EXTENDING NE TO A LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. A SCNDRY COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHERN STATES.

LEANED TOWARD THE SREF SOLN ONCE AGAIN. MODELS AGREE IN MOVG THE
HIGH OFF THE COAST TDY. UPR LOW OVR ERN CANADA BEGINS TO FILL AND
MOVE EAST ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH AND CROSS THE FA
THIS AFTRN & EVENING. A WEAK MID LVL S/W PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG
THE MTS WITH THIS FRNT. THIS FEATURE PROVIDES JUST ENUF SUPPORT
FOR SOME SHWR ACTIVITY ACROSS WRN HALF OF FA WITH THE BEST SPRT
OVER THE NWRN MOST CNTYS. KEPT 20 POP WRN HALF OF FA XCPT 30 POP
ACROSS NW PIEDMONT. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE MINIMAL...A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. SOME PTCHY FOG TO START OUT THE DAY WILL YIELD
TO PT SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS 75-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRNT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRS BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTH. MAINLY DRY...XCPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHWRS ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT EARLY. LOWS M50S-L60S.

TSCTNS CONT TO SHOW SOME MID & UPR LVL MSTR ACROSS THE AREA FRI
AND FRI NIGHT ALONG WITH A E-NE WND. DRY AS MODELS DON`T SPRT ANY
PCPN. HIGHS M-U70S. LOWS IN THE M50S-L60S.

DATA SHOWING MSTR INCRG A BIT ALONG SERN COASTAL SCTNS SAT AS A WEAK
TROF PROGGED TO ROTATE WEST AND APPRCH THE COAST SAT MORNING. THIS
CUD BE ENUF OF A TRIGGER FOR SOME LGHT SHWRS ACROSS THE SERN COASTAL
AREAS. CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW THAT THIS OCCURS...SO KEPT ISLTD POPS
ALONG THE SERN CSTL AREAS FOR NOW. TMPS MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMS. HIGHS U70S-L80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CNTR OF HI PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE NRN ATLC
SAT NGT. WEAK LO PRES WILL LIFT NE OFF THE SE AND MID ATLC CST SAT
NGT INTO MON MORNG. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH A MSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS SAT NGT IN THE UPR
50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUN NGT AND MON...BRINGING A SLGT
CHC OF SHOWERS. HI PRES WILL THEN BLD FM THE LWR GRT LKS EWRD INTO
SRN NEW ENGLAND TUE THRU WED. LOWS WILL RANGE THRU THE 60S SUN
NGT...RANGE FM THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S MON NGT...AND RANGE THRU THE
50S INTO THE LWR 60S TUE NGT. HIGHS IN THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
MON...AND MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 70S TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE
TROF MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING THREAT
OF SHOWERS/PSBL TSTMS. HWVR...TIMING AND EXPECTED COVERAGE TOO
UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW
ENGLAND THRU SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL...STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT LIKELY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER
THROUGH 10Z (6AM).

NE OR E WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS THRU SAT...DUE TO HI PRES BLDNG
FM THE GRT LKS EWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND CST. WIND SPEEDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ARND 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. WAVES WILL BE 1 TO
3 FT AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT THRU FRIDAY. SOME LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS (12-15 SEC) WILL CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO DISTANT TC EDOUARD. A
LITTLE STRONGER NE OR E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AND FRI NGT DUE TO STRONG
HI PRES TO THE NNE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVES 2 TO 3 FT (POSSIBLY
REACHING NEAR 4 FT MOUTH OF THE BAY)...AND SEAS BLDNG TO 4 TO 5 FT
BY LATE FRI INTO SAT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.