Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 280142
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
942 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered well off the Mid Atlantic
coast through tonight. Low pressure northwest of the Bahamas will
move toward the South Carolina coast Saturday and Saturday night,
and will linger along the coastal Carolinas Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The current analysis continues to depict surface high pressure
well off the VA/NC Coast with a strong upper level ridge centered
offshore west into southern VA and NC. A warm evening is occurring
with temperatures ranging through the 70s across the area. Low
pressure near the Bahamas was identified as tropical depression
two earlier, and continues to drift nw. Once again, shower/tstm
activity was largely confined to the mountains, with any lingering
cells gradually diminishing this evening, hence dry conditions are
expected locally overnight. The sky should be mainly clear
overnight, with lows mainly 60-65 F.

For Sat, as the sfc low tracks NW towards the SC coast, the upper
ridge looks to be slow to retreat/weaken over the mid Atlc, and
models are showing a large zone of subsidence north of the
tropical low through most of the day. Guidance also reflecting
drier air, lower dew pts than Fri with values into the upper
50s/lower 60s. Over ne NC, slightly more moisture will be around
and will maintain POPS at 20% in the aftn. Otherwise, partly or
mostly sunny elsewhere with highs in the mid to upper 80s
inland/piedmont areas (warmest NW), and in the upper 70s to lwr
80s along the cst.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Deeper moisture finally pushes nwrd into the cwa later Sat night
into Sun morning, with PWATS rising rapidly from only around 1.00" to
1.75 to 2.00" by Sun morning into the southern 1/2 of the CWA.
Exact track of the remnant low into the SE coast will determine
sensible wx on Sun, but models have remained consistent enough to
support likely POPS most areas on Sunday as the warm and quite
humid airmass will be in place. Highest POPS look to shift just
inland from the coast by aftn. Periods of potentially moderate to
heavy rain will alternate with a variably cloudy sky and probably
some rain-free conditions. Highs on Sun generally in the upper
70s to lwr 80s. The low is slow to weaken acrs the Carolinas and
get slowly transported NE Sun night/Mon as upper level trough from
the W tries to push through. Potentially very wet conds from time
to time. Will continue high chc to likely POPS Sun night/Mon. Warm
and humid with lows 65-70 F and highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
Mon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled weather conditions continue into the extended period as
the remnant tropical depression (per NHC latest forecast) lingers
over the Carolinas or near the Carolina coast Tuesday. Deepest
moisture gets pushed offshore Tuesday as upper level energy lifts
over the southeast local area. Will keep mention 30-50% POPS over
the southeast half of the local area with only slight chance
northeast half. The low weakens into Wednesday with an inverted
trough/coastal front locating along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Lingering moisture along the coast will result in only chance POPs
northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Dry conditions
expected Wednesday night with a partly cloudy sky. An upstream
trough approaches the region Thursday as upper level ridging remains
over the western Atlantic. An associated cold front is forecast to
reach the Ohio Valley early Thursday. Amplifying flow will lift the
frontal boundary northward with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms over the Piedmont and northeast North Carolina
Thursday. Meanwhile, the remnant low pressure is expected to weaken
off the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coasts. Forecast confidence decreases
toward the end of the week and into the weekend as the cold front
approaches the region. The preference at this time is to stick with
the ECMWF, which pushes the front across the region Friday.
Unsettled conditions expected to persist into the weekend as the
front likely stalls along the coast.

Temperatures forecast generally around seasonable norms during the
period. Highs low to mid 80`s with lows in the 60`s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure ridge from the Atlantic and across the Mid Atlantic
STates to western North Carolina will dominate the weather during
the 00Z TAF period. Dew points are a bit higher than 24 hours ago
and will need to consider fog and stratus for Saturday morning. At
this point...IFR conditions do not appear to be widespread with low
level moisture rather shallow. Some models indicate some lowering
aviation conditions at ECG. For now at ECG...have scattered stratus
and 4 mile visibility toward sunset. Later TAFs will reassess.

Dry weather will prevail on Saturday due to subsidence north of the
tropical system. Mid level clouds increase southeast portions during
the afternoon as moisture begins to spread north.

OUTLOOK...Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
over the area Sunday and Monday due to moisture from the tropical
cyclone. High pressure begins to build from the west Tuesday and
Wednesday with decreasing chances for precipitation.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest surface analysis centers high pressure over the western
Atlantic with an area of low pressure northeast of the Bahamas.
Southerly winds of 10-15 kt observed over the waters this afternoon.
Waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-3 ft. High pressure remains over the western
Atlantic as the area of low pressure (possibly tropical or
subtropical) lifts northwest toward the South Carolina coast.
Majority of the impacts (high seas and strongest winds) will be felt
along the Southeast Coast, with only the threat of showers and
thunderstorms for the local waters. Flow becomes southeasterly
Saturday, but remains generally 10-15 kt. Seas also remain 2-3 ft,
but could build to 4 ft near Duck.  Rather weak gradient expected
over the waters Sunday as the low remains over the Carolinas or
along the Southeast coast. Southeasterly winds at or below 10 kt.
Seas build to 3-4 ft. South to southeast winds at or below 15 kt
persist through Tuesday as the remnant low remains over the
Carolinas. Sub-small craft conditions persist through the middle of
next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond. There is a good chance for additional rain Sun/Mon with
the potential to end as the wettest May on record.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/AJZ
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...AKQ



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