Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 190815
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
415 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NOW MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS NE FLORIDA WITH OUR AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN COOL NE FLOW
REGIME. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY PICKS
UP VERY WELL ON UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERN PANHANDLE WITH PROMINENT DRY SLOT STREAKING NORTHWARD TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF CENTRAL AND MOST OF NE GEORGIA AT THIS HOUR.
RESPONSE ON RADAR HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE WITHING THE LAST 3 TO 6 HOURS. MAIN
ACTIVITY NOW WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS AND EVEN THAT IS MAINLY OVER
THE ALABAMA PORTION WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY WITHIN NORTH GA
PORTION OF AXIS. WILL THEREFORE REDUCE POPS IN INITIALIZED GRIDS
THIS MORNING.

MAIN QUESTION WITH POPS TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH IF ANY DEFORMATION
AXIS FILLS BACK IN AS UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST. AS LONG AS DRY SLOT
REMAINS OVER THE AREA WHICH NAM12 INDICATES WILL BE AT LEAST
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...FEEL MODELS MIGHT BE OVERDONE ON POPS.
WILL GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE WITHIN DEFORMATION ZONE WITH HIGHER
POPS ACTUALLY POSSIBLE AS AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

WELL WE ARE NOW RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF LOW LEVEL JET EVENT WELL
REPRESENTED BY THE MODELS BUT SURFACE STABLE LAYER CONTINUES TO
HOLD STRONG WITH ONLY LIMITED DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSLATION TO THE
SURFACE. HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KTS BUT ONLY IN ISOLATED
INSTANCES AND GIVEN LACK OF SURFACE BASED WINDS CURRENTLY AS WELL
AS FORECAST COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS...WILL LET WIND ADVISORY
DIE AT 12Z WITH NO PLANS FOR EXTENSION.

DEESE

DEESE


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CLOSED LOW JUST OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST STAYS FAIRLY
STATIONARY THROUGH SUN AND MON BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING
FURTHER OUT TO SEA TUE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE STATE SUN
NIGHT WITH PRECIP ENDING . MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH NEXT SYSTEM TUE.

00Z MON...A SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY DEVELOPS INTO
A CLOSED LOW CENTER AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKE STATES BY 00Z
TUE. ITS TRAILING COLDS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO NA GA BY 12Z TUE. WILL SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE TUE AND COULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG STORMS AS INSTABILITY INDICES INCREASE DURING THE
DAY TUE. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A BIT LESS INSTABILITY
THAT PREVIOUS RUNS BUT STILL KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH THUNDER
WE WILL SE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 00Z TO 06Z
WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

01

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH MAIN ACCUMULATING RAINFALL POTENTIAL HAS ABATED...STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOOD  WITH ISOLATED AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS
REMAINING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO FLOOD. DESPITE THIS...NOT ENOUGH
EXPECTED TO WARRANT CONTINUATION OF FLOOD WATCH AND WILL CANCEL WITH
12Z ISSUANCE.

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
HAS BEEN A CHALLENGING FORECAST AS MVFR AND IFR HAS BEEN RIGHT ON
THE DOORSTEP OF THE ATL TERMINALS BUT VERY SLOW TO ARRIVE. HAVE
FINALLY SEEN SOME MVFR WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT REAL QUESTION
IS IF IFR MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD. CERTAINLY WONT HAVE TO MAKE IT
FAR AS ALREADY HAVE IFR FROM LA GRANGE TO ATHENS AND POINTS
SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY IFR FOR ALL SOUTHERN TERMINALS BUT
ONLY GO TEMPO THROUGH 12Z FOR THE NORTHERN ONES. OTHERWISE...PLAN
TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH WINDS
PICKING UP TO INCLUDE 20 O 25 KT GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON IFR POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  48  67  50 /  50  30  20   5
ATLANTA         58  49  66  53 /  30  30  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     60  48  69  48 /  50  30  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    61  50  70  52 /  50  30   5   5
COLUMBUS        60  51  69  54 /  30  10   5   5
GAINESVILLE     56  49  66  51 /  50  30  20   5
MACON           59  50  69  52 /  30  20  10   5
ROME            64  51  72  51 /  50  30   0   5
PEACHTREE CITY  58  48  66  51 /  30  30  10   5
VIDALIA         61  53  70  54 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...DEESE





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