Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KFFC 062353
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
753 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
EAST AND DAMPEN A BIT OVERNIGHT. THE MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME
MORE ZONAL BY TOMORROW.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON DURING
PEAK HEATING. HI-RES MODELS STILL NOT PROGGING VERY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE SCT POPS SHOULD HOLD. CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

BOTH THE WRF AND THE ARW SHOW A CLUSTER OF STORMS DIPPING SOUTHEAST
IN THE FLOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT THIS WILL
OCCUR...SO WILL ONLY KEEP POPS ISOLD/SCT FOR NOW.

TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TOMORROW AND RANGE FROM NEAR 80 IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA ALLOWING FOR
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THIS RIDGE SO WOULD STILL EXPECT LOW END SCATTERED
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRETTY MUCH THIS SAME
PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THU AND FRI AS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
BUT NO REAL CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE ALL POINTS TO AT OR
BELOW CLIMO POPS THROUGH WEEKS END.

BY THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS.
WOULD IMAGINE MODELS ARE BEHIND THE CURVE ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND SEEM TOO KEEN ON GENERATING CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
SUBSEQUENT RUNS...IF RIDGE IN FACT IS AS STRONG AS
ADVERTISED...RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY COME DOWN IN THE MODELS AND
WILL GO AHEAD AND INDICATE THIS IN NEW GRID SET.

LIKEWISE...MODELS LIKELY TOO COOL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LEANING
TOO HEAVILY ON CLIMO AND WILL GO HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS WITH 595DM RIDGE BUILDING IN.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  92  71  93 /  10  30  20  20
ATLANTA         71  89  73  91 /  10  30  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     63  84  65  85 /  20  40  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    68  89  70  91 /  20  30  20  20
COLUMBUS        72  92  73  93 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     70  88  72  89 /  10  30  20  20
MACON           71  93  72  94 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            68  90  70  92 /  20  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  69  90  71  92 /  10  30  20  20
VIDALIA         72  92  73  94 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.