Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 291140
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/
.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Rather uneventful fcst period for north and central GA given TS
Bonnie progged to slowly approach the SC coastline by this evening
then follow the edge of the coast NEWD thru Monday keeping our CWA
in the western subsidence dominated zone. Aside from a few outer
rainbands flirting with the far eastern tier of the area this
morning into afternoon...any pops stay slight to low end chance.
While hi-res solutions indicate isolated shower/storm coverage area-
wide this afternoon /possibly from influence of weak mid-level
moisture axis/...think this is largely overdone so have limited pops
to east and portions of north but couldn`t rule something isolated
Monday looks to be just general slight pops for diurnally driven
showers/storms. Some discrepancies in the thermal profiles for the
afternoon as the Nam has steeper mid-level lapse rates and decently
higher resultant conditional instability than the GFS. Lack of any
upper wave dynamics in the weakly zonal flow aloft or any low level
boundaries so nothing to weigh into for more organized convective
potential than general isolated threat.
Temps should be near to slightly above norms today aside from cooler
eastern tier given aforementioned outer reach of clouds/precip from
Bonnie. Monday will be very summer-like with highs progged 3-7 deg
above norms and most areas in upper 80s to low 90s.
.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
The beginning of the period should find Bonnie near coastal NC.
This puts GA in an area of weak dynamics with the potential for
mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Bonnie should continue
northeast as the next upper trough moves into the OH valley late
Thursday and Friday. This should push a frontal boundary into the
southern Appalachians and eventually into GA by the end of the
period as the upper trough continues to deepen through the OH
valley and into the southeast states. Somewhat higher chance pops
area wide for Friday into Saturday.
VFR conditions expected thru period with mainly mid-level 8-12 kft cigs
working in from the tropical system to the east and afternoon cu
field in 4-6 kft. KAHN is only site with chance high enough to
mention VCSH mainly for morning into early afternoon...though an
isolated shower or thunderstorm isn`t out of the question by this
afternoon for any site. Winds will be tricky for KATL today as
they may be wavering from NNE to NNW but think predominantly will
stay NNW then perhaps a period late this evening back on NE site.
At least magnitudes should be less than 10kts.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low on NNW to NNE winds near KATL.
Medium on precip chance.
High on all else.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 83 62 90 66 / 30 10 20 10
Atlanta 86 67 89 68 / 20 10 20 10
Blairsville 82 60 84 60 / 30 20 20 10
Cartersville 88 63 89 63 / 20 10 20 10
Columbus 89 67 91 68 / 10 10 20 10
Gainesville 83 64 87 67 / 30 20 20 10
Macon 88 63 91 66 / 10 10 20 10
Rome 89 63 90 63 / 20 10 20 10
Peachtree City 87 62 89 63 / 10 10 20 10
Vidalia 85 66 90 69 / 40 10 20 10