Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 311506
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1006 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015



.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. VISIBLE AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE CWFA FROM THE
NORTH...EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BY THE EVENING. FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THE HIGH TEMPS...IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED...THEY MAY HAVE TO BE BUMPED DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG 1033MB HIGH
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH RIDGING SW
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS IS PROVIDING AN OPTIMAL SETUP FOR A LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE
FLOW CONDUCIVE FOR AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE FOR MOST ALL LOCATIONS.
MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AT THIS HOUR WITH UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE WITH SEVERAL
MORE HOURS OF COOLING TO GO. HIGH CLOUDS ARE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BUT WITH LIMITED IF ANY
EFFECT ON CONTINUED TEMPERATURE DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

LOOKING LIKE A RATHER TRANQUIL BEGINNING TO THE SHORT TERM WITH
JUST THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN CLOUDS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.
THICKENING MID LEVEL DECK MAY CURB A DEGREE OR TWO OFF HIGHS AND
WENT JUST BELOW MODEL BLENDS FOR THE MAX T IN THE GRIDS. OPPOSITE
GOES FOR TONIGHT AS CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CURB DIURNAL TRENDS AS
SHOULD DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE AND HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY FOR THE AREA...BUT SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET SHOULD PUT A QUICK END TO THIS AS MOISTURE
INCREASES RAPIDLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN MEAN WESTERLIES SHOULD PROVIDE NECESSARY LIFT
FOR NIL POPS IN THE MORNING TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO CATEGORICAL
BY AFTERNOON. ADIABATIC OMEGA BECOMES MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD OVER NW GEORGIA AS WELL ADDING TO CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN POTENTIAL. INSTABILITY INITIALLY LOOKS NON EXISTENT BUT
40 TO 50 KTS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION. CHANCES TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

DEESE

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM RAIN EVENT SUNDAY CONTINUES INTO THE INITIAL EXTENDED
PERIODS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF MONDAY MORNING WINTRY PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN MONDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPACTS THE AREA...HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH
MENTION OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE SYSTEM EXITS QUICKLY
MONDAY...AND HAVE TAPERED OFF POPS BY LATE MORNING.

A QUICK REPRIEVE IN THE RAINY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING AND NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF MOISTURE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
INITIALLY AND KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...THEN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD POPS FURTHER NORTH. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS EXPECT THIS FORECAST TO CHANGE INTO NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN THE MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP. THURSDAY
MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE FRIDAY MORNING APPEARS TO HOLD MORE OF A CHANCE
FOR THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. FOR NOW...ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL
AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS DRY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

31

FIRE WEATHER...
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID
20S FOR AROUND 4 HOURS TODAY. GIVEN LOW FUEL MOISTURE...A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT IS WARRANTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. 20K FT CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO 15K FT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT NO RA
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BRINGING MVFR
CIGS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          52  33  56  45 /   0   5  60  90
ATLANTA         53  39  55  40 /   0   5  80  90
BLAIRSVILLE     53  34  46  37 /   0   5  80  90
CARTERSVILLE    53  36  54  39 /   0   5 100  90
COLUMBUS        56  40  61  46 /   0   5  70  90
GAINESVILLE     52  34  49  40 /   0   5  70  90
MACON           56  34  63  49 /   0   0  50  80
ROME            53  34  54  39 /   0   5 100  80
PEACHTREE CITY  54  33  58  42 /   0   0  80  90
VIDALIA         58  34  68  55 /   0   5  20  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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