Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 291140
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 403 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Rather uneventful fcst period for north and central GA given TS
Bonnie progged to slowly approach the SC coastline by this evening
then follow the edge of the coast NEWD thru Monday keeping our CWA
in the western subsidence dominated zone. Aside from a few outer
rainbands flirting with the far eastern tier of the area this
morning into afternoon...any pops stay slight to low end chance.
While hi-res solutions indicate isolated shower/storm coverage area-
wide this afternoon /possibly from influence of weak mid-level
moisture axis/...think this is largely overdone so have limited pops
to east and portions of north but couldn`t rule something isolated
elsewhere.

Monday looks to be just general slight pops for diurnally driven
showers/storms. Some discrepancies in the thermal profiles for the
afternoon as the Nam has steeper mid-level lapse rates and decently
higher resultant conditional instability than the GFS. Lack of any
upper wave dynamics in the weakly zonal flow aloft or any low level
boundaries so nothing to weigh into for more organized convective
potential than general isolated threat.

Temps should be near to slightly above norms today aside from cooler
eastern tier given aforementioned outer reach of clouds/precip from
Bonnie. Monday will be very summer-like with highs progged 3-7 deg
above norms and most areas in upper 80s to low 90s.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
The beginning of the period should find Bonnie near coastal NC.
This puts GA in an area of weak dynamics with the potential for
mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Bonnie should continue
northeast as the next upper trough moves into the OH valley late
Thursday and Friday. This should push a frontal boundary into the
southern Appalachians and eventually into GA by the end of the
period as the upper trough continues to deepen through the OH
valley and into the southeast states. Somewhat higher chance pops
area wide for Friday into Saturday.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR conditions expected thru period with mainly mid-level 8-12 kft cigs
working in from the tropical system to the east and afternoon cu
field in 4-6 kft. KAHN is only site with chance high enough to
mention VCSH mainly for morning into early afternoon...though an
isolated shower or thunderstorm isn`t out of the question by this
afternoon for any site. Winds will be tricky for KATL today as
they may be wavering from NNE to NNW but think predominantly will
stay NNW then perhaps a period late this evening back on NE site.
At least magnitudes should be less than 10kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low on NNW to NNE winds near KATL.
Medium on precip chance.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  62  90  66 /  30  10  20  10
Atlanta         86  67  89  68 /  20  10  20  10
Blairsville     82  60  84  60 /  30  20  20  10
Cartersville    88  63  89  63 /  20  10  20  10
Columbus        89  67  91  68 /  10  10  20  10
Gainesville     83  64  87  67 /  30  20  20  10
Macon           88  63  91  66 /  10  10  20  10
Rome            89  63  90  63 /  20  10  20  10
Peachtree City  87  62  89  63 /  10  10  20  10
Vidalia         85  66  90  69 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Baker


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