Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 091526 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1026 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED DUE TO ONGOING AND
EXPECTED SNOWFALL AND IMPACTS.

BDL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
AREA ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING FOR
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD SEE MOSTLY FLURRIES RETREATING NORTH AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE AND COLD
ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS DOMINATE. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE NOT
NOTICEABLY CHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE AND NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA AREA SO NO PLANS TO ALTER THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY EITHER AT THIS TIME.

20

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
LATE THURSDAY...THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS CENTRAL GA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SOME VERY LOW POPS/LIGHT
PRECIP WAS BEING PRODUCED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST RUNS HAVE
REMOVED A GOOD DEAL OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP/POPS. SO HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT AND REMOVED THE SLIGHT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK.
POPS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CWFA INTO TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY...THERE COULD BE SOME PTYPE ISSUES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE THIS FAR OUT.

NLISTEMAA

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...

MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
CEILINGS ARE SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTA
METRO TAF SITES AS WE HEAD INTO 12Z. THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE METRO ATLANTA TAF SITES...SHOULD SEE
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH AT LEAST 00-04Z. I DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT THE
KAHN/KCSG/KMCN TAF SITES TO DROP BELOW VFR CONDITIONS. KATL WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 06Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA THROUGH 00Z...BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED AFTER.
NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12KT W/ GUSTS 16-22KT CURRENTLY WILL INCREASE TO
10-14KT W/ GUSTS 20-25KT BY 14-16Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM TO HIGH.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          39  23  38  21 /  20  10   5   0
ATLANTA         37  23  37  24 /  40  20   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     30  18  29  15 /  90  30  20   0
CARTERSVILLE    36  22  36  20 /  80  30   5   0
COLUMBUS        42  26  43  27 /  20   5   5   0
GAINESVILLE     35  22  35  21 /  50  20   5   0
MACON           43  26  43  24 /  10  10   0   0
ROME            36  22  36  20 /  90  30  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  39  23  38  22 /  40  20   5   0
VIDALIA         46  28  45  28 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...PICKENS...
TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...BDL


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