Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 221134
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
733 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TODAY
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE CONDITIONS SEEN ON THURSDAY... WITH
THE RIDGE HOLDING THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. DESPITE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND RESULTING MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE CAP... STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP JUST
ABOUT ANYWHERE AS UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS PRODUCE 3000-4000+ J/KG OF
SBCAPE DURING MAX HEATING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE STATE ON
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE GIVES WAY A BIT. THIS WILL WARRANT
SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
BOTH DAYS... THE HEAT AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO REACH STRONG OR SEVERE LIMITS... WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND FREQUENT LIGHTING BEING THE MAIN THREATS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED... AREA TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 90S... WITH SOME 100 DEGREE MARKS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA TODAY AND AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. THE WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT
ADVISORY AS POSTED FOR TODAY... GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WARRENTON LINE... AND EXPECT THIS THREAT TO
POSSIBLY REPEAT AGAIN ON SATURDAY. REMEMBER... HEAT IS THE NUMBER
ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER... SO PLEASE PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY BY
DRINKING PLENTY OF FLUIDS... STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED BUILDING
WHENEVER POSSIBLE AND LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES... ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER STRONG RIDGE INFLUENCE... WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL HOLD
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. FOR HIGHS... STARTED WITH A
MAV AND MET BLEND WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE.

39


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED WEST OF THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE EXTENDED AND PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHES IN FOR SUNDAY AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF POPS APPEAR TO BE
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST...RIDGING DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THIS AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...ECMWF
AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LIMITING POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND ARE BASICALLY SHOWING NO PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT...CANNOT COMPLETELY FOLLOW GUIDANCE AND WITH A WEDGE LIKE
SITUATION AND IT BEING SUMMERTIME HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP...AT LEAST FOR THE DAYTIME PERIODS. THE
OTHER UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. GFS SHOWS
BASICALLY NEAR ZERO CAPE...BUT AGAIN WITH IT BEING
SUMMERTIME...HAVE LEFT IN ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THE DAYTIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS THOUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF ITS
NECESSARY TO BACK OFF ON THUNDER. SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR
THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS TREND...HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE
OF RAIN/THUNDER FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SUNDAY COMPARED
TO SATURDAY...A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA COULD STILL CREEP INTO THE MID 100S FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES.
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
80S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.

11


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE. EXPECT FEW TO SCT CUMULUS
AROUND 4-5KFT BY 15-17Z TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS
BETWEEN 17Z-22Z TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING... JUST NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. POSSIBLY SOME PATCHES OF
BRIEF MVFR FOG EARLY SAT MORNING... BUT NOTHING EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE... 0-4KTS AT NIGHT... 7-9KTS DURING
THE DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          98  72  98  75 /  20   5  30  30
ATLANTA         94  74  94  77 /  20   5  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     89  70  88  70 /  20  10  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    94  70  95  74 /  20   5  20  20
COLUMBUS        98  75  98  79 /  20   5  20  20
GAINESVILLE     94  75  92  75 /  20   5  30  30
MACON           99  74  98  76 /  20   5  30  20
ROME            95  71  96  74 /  20  10  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  95  70  95  74 /  20   5  20  20
VIDALIA         99  75  99  77 /  20   5  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...
HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MACON...MARION...MONTGOMERY...MUSCOGEE...PEACH...PULASKI...
SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...39







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