Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 231738
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
138 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE LA COAST THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. REGIONAL
RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR LOOK PRETTY GOOD WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINING ISOLD TO SCT. 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWS HIGH PWATS AND BL WINDS BELOW 15KT...SO ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NORTH GA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WHILE THIS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE...EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ACROSS NORTH GA. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CHANCES OF TSTORMS TO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
CWA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...HOWEVER BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 503 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH SEVERAL FEATURES IMPACTING THE AREA...BUT MODELS ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING RELATIVELY QUIET PERIODS IN
BETWEEN. HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ALTHOUGH SEVERAL MODELS
PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CWA ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AS
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO SET UP
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHANCE POPS SUNDAY CONTINUE INTO
EARLY WEEK AND THEN EXIT QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AS SECOND FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. LONGWAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS ITS POSITION OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK...AND WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...LOWER PRECIP CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...THEN
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE
SECOND FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

31


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN GA THIS
AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP TO THE NORTH...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CELLS IN THE VICINITY OF ATL.
MODELS ARE NOT PROGGING IFR/LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. DO THINK THAT
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME SCT MVFR CIGS
THO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH BETTER
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  70  89  70 /  30  20  60  30
ATLANTA         88  71  87  71 /  30  20  60  30
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  82  64 /  40  30  60  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  69  87  68 /  40  30  60  20
COLUMBUS        91  72  90  73 /  30  20  60  30
GAINESVILLE     86  70  87  69 /  40  20  60  20
MACON           91  72  91  72 /  30  20  60  30
ROME            87  70  87  68 /  50  30  60  20
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  87  69 /  30  20  60  30
VIDALIA         93  74  94  74 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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