Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 190014
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
714 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

UPPER AIR OBS FROM THIS MORNING AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THE AREAS PRIMARY FEATURE BEING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SLIDING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS...SET UP
BETWEEN AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
OVER FAR SRN CALIFORNIA. SKIES HAVE BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY THIS
AFTERNOON...THANKS TO SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS SPILLING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA
SITS WITH A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND ALONG WITH INCREASED
MIXING POTENTIAL HAS LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. SPEEDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE...AT
TIMES AN OB OR TWO FLIRT WITH ADV CRITERIA...BUT NOTHING
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE. TEMPS AS OF MID AFTERNOON
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

EXPECTING QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST AND THAT
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SRN CA SLIDES INTO THE DESERT SW
REGION. THERE ISNT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THE SURFACE
PATTERN...SO EXPECTING TO SEE THE GUSTY COMPONENT TO THE S/SWRLY
WINDS CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS VERY MILD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH
THE FORECAST CALLING FOR UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE CWA.

TOMORROW...ESP THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...IS THE INTERESTING
PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NRN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS SLIDING TO THE EAST
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...HELPING TO PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT SE INTO THE
REGION. THIS FRONT SLOWS A BIT DURING THE DAY...AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE OVER SERN CO BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM IN
THE SWRN CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY A BIT WITH THE END
LOCATION OF THE SFC FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT AGREEMENT IS A
LITTLE BETTER...AND BY 00Z LOOKS TO BE DRAPED SW/NE THROUGH
ROUGHLY THE CENTER OF THE CWA. HASNT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH MODELS
SHOWING DEWPOINTS ON THE RISE...CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S
ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS
INSTABILITY GOES...NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMER TEMPS/FORECAST
HIGHS NOT FAR OFF IN THE 70S/LOWER 80S/ WITH THOSE DEWPOINTS AND A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH INSTABILITY VALUES...BUT STILL PEAKING IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN OTHERS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES HAVENT CHANGED MUCH EITHER...STILL ON THE LOW
SIDE...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE ACTIVITY ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. STILL SOME QUESTION
WITH HOW MUCH WILL BE GOING BETWEEN THAT 21-00Z
TIMEFRAME...FORECAST REMAINS DRY PRIOR TO THAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS TIME PERIOD CAN BE DIVIDED INTO TWO PARTS...BOTH OF WHICH ARE
CENTERED AROUND RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN IN THE SEASONAL...TO SEASONALLY WARM
CATEGORY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S...AND NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE LAST
PART OF THE EASTER WEEKEND AS THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSS THE AREA. MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL MEASURE RAINFALL DURING THIS 24-30 PERIOD...AND SOME
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP SOME HEFTY AMOUNTS. THE INITIAL ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SET UP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DISSECT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITABABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST IN THE 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...SHOWING THERE IS PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ONCE THE RAIN/STORMS GET GOING. AS
MENTIONED...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FEED INTO THE BOUNDARY AND
SUSTAIN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH NIGHT. THE ISSUE WITH THAT
IS MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY TRAIN NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WHICH AT BEST SHOT APPEARS IT WILL BE ALONG A COLUMBUS
TO GRAND ISLAND...TO CAMBRDIGE...GIVE OR TAKE A BIT NORTH/SOUTH.
THERE PROBABLY WON/T BE MUCH SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. THAT GIVE AND
TAKE LOCATION ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHAT LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT LOCALIZED 1-2" RAINS IN A
30-40 MILE WIDE SWATH WOULD NOT BE UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE. IN GENERAL...THE SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN
FAVORS THE NEBRASKA SIDE OVER THE KANSAS SIDE BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY
IS FURTHER NORTH AT THAT TIME. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER RISK...
THAT LOOKS IFFY AT BEST...WITH MAYBE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
PRODUCING SOME MARGINALLY LARGER HAIL. LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
IN PLACE...BUT SHEAR WEAKENS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

EASTER SUNDAY...THE SCATTERING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES.
THOUGH IT MAY NOT RAIN EVERY MINUTE OF THE DAY...FAIRLY HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THERE TO SUGGEST IT WILL LIKELY RAIN AT
SOME POINT AT MOST LOCATIONS. HAVE THE UMBRELLA HANDY. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...THE FRONT TRIES TO SET UP FURTHER SOUTHEAST...AND A
SLOW MOVING H700 MB WAVE SLIDES EAST/SOUTHEAST...THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM COVERAGE SHOULD SETTLE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL INCLUDE NORTHERN KANSAS.
THIS GIVES THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA LEAST SOME
LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURING AN AVERAGE ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-HALF INCH
RAINFALL IN GENERAL THIS WEEKEND. THE SEVERE RISK SEEMS QUITE
LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAKISH INSTABILITY AND PREPONDERANCE OF CLOUDS
ALL DAY. THINGS WRAP UP/MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A DRY DAY IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY...AND DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TUESDAY. ALREADY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...RETURNING MOISTURE ABOARD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE BACK INTO THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THAT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

ALL OF THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH OUR REGION CATCHING SOME
DECENT UPPER LIFT WITH A SOUTHERN WAVE WRAPPING SOUTH OF THE LOW.
THERE WILL BE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...THIS
TIME PERIOD IS WORTH WATCHING FOR SEVERE WEATHER RISK. SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER...WITH INSTABILITY STILL AT LEAST IN
THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE. THE MAIN KICKER IS A DRY LINE SURGE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN THE BEST SHOT AT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. STILL A
LITTLE WAYS AWAY IN TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING A TAD
GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING...LOCATION AND GENERAL SET UP OF
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES APPROACHES THE TERMINAL. EXPECT
WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT...WITH A 50KT LLJ INCREASING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AROUND 19/04Z. WINDS ARE EVENTUALLY
EXPECTED TO RELAX AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH REACHES THE TERMINAL...WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT LEAST IN THE VICINTY OF
THE TERMINAL BY 19/23Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...ROSSI



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