Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 312030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Water vapor imagery placed an upper low pressure system in North
Dakota with the upper trough extending south into Nebraska. At the
surface, the associated cold frontal boundary was oriented to the
southeast of our CWA in far southeast Nebraska into eastern KS. A
few showers or sprinkles developed across western Nebraska this
morning and this area of high based, light precipitation ha been
weakening as it moves eastward. Short term models suggest
convection which develops across CO tonight will also dissipate
before reaching our western KS counties and have gone with a dry
forecast tonight.

The upper trough axis will shift east of the Missouri River early
Wednesday, with weak surface ridging settling in during the day.
Wednesday is shaping up to be very nice with light winds and
mild/seasonal temperatures in the middle and upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

The pattern is changing for the extended periods with conditions
trending dry versus our recent wet spell. At the onset of the
extended Wednesday night, flow across the conus will be split with
an upper low pressure system translating into Ontario/upper Great
Lakes region and another upper low cutoff from the flow in Texas,
with ridging in the desert southwest. The Central Plains will be
in west to northwest flow with a couple of shortwave troughs
translating thru the flow. Models are fairly consistent with a
stronger shortwave trough translating southeast thru the Dakotas
on Friday, bringing a surface cold front onto the plains,
returning at least small chances for thunderstorms to our northern
and eastern zones Friday afternoon and night.

This shortwave trough deepens across the upper midwest Friday night,
with the western ridge upper axis building over the Rockies,
resulting in an amplified northwest flow regime across the interior
conus. This will bring a continuation of the mainly dry conditions,
and a warming trend in temperatures, especially by the start of next
week as the upper trough departs to the east and the western ridge
expands onto the plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue May 31 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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