Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 241128
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
528 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

The main short term concern remains headlines and
additional snow today.

Latest radar and satellite trends indicate the fine snow fall
gradient will be across the southeast metro today.  Tried to fine
tune amounts to the northwest some from earlier adjustment. This
lead to canceling Redwood, Sibley, and Scott from the advisory
with less than 2 inches expected today. Otherwise, let the
remaining headlines go, with fine tuning the blizzard expiration
to 06z over south central MN and left the winter storm warning go
through 12z Sat into west central Wisconsin. Expect another surge
of snow to lift over the Southeast third of the cwa, with an
additional 6 inches possible east of a Albert Lea...Menomonie
line. Lesser totals to the west, with the northwest metro
remaining dry. Strong north winds will develop as the surface low
tracks toward Chicago this morning. Some guts to 40 mph possible
over south central Minnesota causing low visibility/blizzard
conditions with the falling snow, at least through the morning.
MNDOT continues to mention travel not advised over the southern 2
tier of counties in south central MN.

Improving conditions expected through 06z Saturday over MN with
slowly diminishing winds. The warning over west central Wisconsin
will likely need to be cancelled early, as the system pulls east
into the southern Great Lakes region overnight. Lows tonight will
drop off through the teens at least and could be colder over the
fresh snow covered areas if winds and clouds decrease quicker than
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 409 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

An strong jet across the CONUS will yield an active long term period
with temperatures running near to a little above normal. Chances
for precip will come Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday with the system
Tuesday looking to have the greatest potential for more
significant precip amounts.

We`ll start the long term with zonal flow in the wake of the
system passing to our south today. Within this zonal flow, we`ll
see a shortwave/clipper worker across central MN and northern WI.
Starting to see better model agreement on some light snow
accompanying this shortwave across northern sections of the MPX
area and now have some chance pops Saturday night/Sunday morning
north of I-94. This wave will be moving through, so any precip
amounts we see will be fairly minor with maybe a half inch of snow
possible.

Behind this wave, we see heights build again Sunday into Monday.
Where snow does not fall today, we will likely see high poke back
up into the low 40s ahead of a weak cold front that will move
through Monday night.

For Tuesday, models continue to show a high degree of variability
with this system, though the GFS is starting to trend toward the
ECMWF. Because of that, we have some high chance and even likely
pops now for Tuesday. At the moment, we are warm enough in the
grids to make this a mainly liquid event. However, the ECMWF did
track back southeast with this system with the 00z run, bringing
the potential for accumulating snow to the area. Given the little
run to run consistency, stuck with our warmer/rainier forecast,
but we will have to watch trends closely with this system.

Behind the Tuesday wave, we look to get into more of a northwest
flow, and within this flow, both the GFS/ECMWF show a clipper
working across the upper MS Valley Wednesday night/Thursday. its
not until we get on the backside of the clipper do we look to have
a shot at temperatures dipping below normal. Until then, we will
continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal. Currently, our average
temperature for the month of February is only a half degree off
the pace for making this the warmest February on record at the
Twin Cities. However, we will be cool enough to end the month to
keep us from getting there, but we should be able to maintain our
spot in the top 10.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

As was forecast earlier...the snow is likely remain south of
KMSP and KRWF...and possibly KRNH. Some threat of MVFR cigs mainly
east during the period. KEAU will be under IFR or lower snow for
the next 18 hours at least. Snowfall could top one foot i the
hoover snow bands linger there through the morning. Mainly vfr
trend elsewhere. Strong n-nw winds developing today...diminishing
from west to east tonight.

KMSP...We still expect snow to remain south/southeast of the
terminal. Main concern is the gusty north northeast winds and cigs
lowering to 4-5k feet and lingering into the evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat night...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming W.
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance afternoon -RASN. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ016-024>028.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ015-
     023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ063-
     070.

     Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ074>078-
     082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE



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