Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 050833
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG PUTS THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRES OVER FAR SERN MN WHILE A WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT LINGERS N OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW PREVAILS ATOP
MN/WI ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THRU THE
REST OF THE MRNG HRS...THIS SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT SE WHILE THE FRONT
TO THE N SLIDES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY ESE. HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SEWD JAUNT OF THE SFC HIGH WILL ALSO BE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN
RIDGE. H5 AND H7 PROGS OF THE RIDGE INDICATE A SLIGHT SHTWV KINK IN
THE FLOW WITH SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID- AND UPR- LEVELS.
THIS WAVE WILL THEN RIDE SSEWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE
LATER THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. CAMS ARE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING PRECIP ECHOES BREAKING OUT IN THE WI PORTION OF THE WFO MPX
CWFA LATE THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...FROM A
SENSIBLE WX POINT OF VIEW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE
MEASURABLE PRECIP SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PARTICULARLY DEVOID OF
MOISTURE. THIS IS SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THIS MRNG THAT DECOUPLING AND NEAR-SFC SUBSIDENCE WILL
AID IN FROST FORMATION IN THOSE WRN WI COUNTIES /HENCE KEEPING THE
FROST ADVY IN PLACE FOR 3 OF OUR COUNTIES/.

GOING FORWARD...ONCE THE NIGHTLY INVERSION BREAKS...THEN THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND RH LEVELS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S IN WI AND 20S IN MN TDA. THE QUESTION IS IF THE
WEAK TROF ALOFT CAN MOVE INTO THE WI COUNTIES EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ANY FALLING PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING.
AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED IN THE 20S...MENTIONING ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE CWFA...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS THE INCOMING UPR LVL RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN INFLUENCE FOR WAA. WHEREAS THE WI COUNTIES WILL BE HELD IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
NIL TEMP ADVECTION...THE MN COUNTIES WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO WAA
AND CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR ERN/SRN MN WHILE WRN MN
WILL HAVE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S. THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE AT
PLAY WILL BE THIN-LAYERED SMOKE WELL ALOFT FROM LARGE WILDFIRES
BURNING IN NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES. THIS MAY
CREATE A MILKY-TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY TODAY...FILTERING
THE SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
FORECAST. AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE GENERAL
POPULATION...BUT ANYONE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO POLLUTION MAY WANT TO
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF SMOKE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MORE CLOUDS
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-94...AND CLOSER TO I-90.

THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD LIMIT
TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD LEAD TO MECHANICAL MIXING...SO CONTINUED WITH MID TO UPPER
80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 90S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND AS WAS THE CASE
BEFORE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS TO THE
NORTHWEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...SO COULD SEE THE FRONT PASS THROUGH
DRY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE HOPWRF TIMESHIFT DOES HAVE ISOLATED
CONVECTION...SO THE 15 TO 20 POPS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN IOWA...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS COOLER
TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...BUT A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
WI TOMORROW MORNING. EVEN IF THE RAIN MATERIALIZES...THE CLOUD
BASES WILL REMAIN HIGH.

KMSP...

THERE COULD BE A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE RADAR EAST OF THE
AIRPORT IN THE MORNING. NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. SLGT CHC TSRA FRI EVENING. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ016-027-028.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...CLF



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