Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 220402
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
902 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2018

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Forecast...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An exiting storm system will leave behind and cool and dry conditions
with high temperatures well below normal. Low temperatures Monday
morning will be cold with lower deserts in the 30s and coldest
deserts dipping below freezing. Temperatures rebound by the
middle of the week with desert highs well into the 70s by
Wednesday. Another cold front moves through during the latter part
of the workweek leading to windy conditions Thursday and much
cooler temperatures on Friday. A warming trend begins over the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A chilly but pleasant day is ongoing across the entire forecast
area amidst mostly clear skies and afternoon temperatures in the
50s. A few cumulus clouds are streaming southeastward off of the
snow pack on the Mogollon Rim, and some thin cirrus are moving
across southeast California. The storm system that brought us more
active weather has shifted into the Southern High Plains, leaving
the Southwest situated within northwesterly flow aloft. One more
day of below-normal temperatures are forecast for tomorrow as only
modest height rises occur, with a very weak upper disturbance
passing through the northern Rockies. More substantial shortwave
ridging will build across the western U.S. through the middle of
the week, with temperatures returning to 5-10 degrees above normal
across the entire region. Periods of high clouds with generally
light winds can also be expected.

The development of a broad trough continues to be advertised into
the later portions of the week, but looks like the strongest
forcing for ascent and richest moisture will be focused well to
the north of our area. While precipitation may occur across
northern Arizona, dry air within the base of the trough will
overspread the southern half of Arizona, with minimal
precipitation chances expected. The primary effects will be
increasing westerly winds on Thursday and Friday, and cooler
temperatures into the weekend, with a return to highs in the 60s
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL and Southeast
California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns through tonight as winds will remain
light and follow typical diurnal patterns. There will be an
increase in cloud coverage through Monday but ceilings should
remain AOA 20k feet.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday: Temperatures will gradually climb through
Thursday with 70s expected in the lower deserts Wed/Thur.  Winds
will generally be light but a system passing to our north on
Thursday will bring some breezy conditions to SE California. Cooler
air rushes in behind Thursday`s system with near to slightly below
normal temperatures Friday/Saturday.  Throughout the extended
forecast minimum humidities will remain quite low, teens and low
twenties being a common occurrence, although overnight recoveries
will remain fair to good.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Rogers
AVIATION...Deemer
FIRE WEATHER...Wilson



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