Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 280953
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
253 AM MST THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL WARM TO
BETWEEN 105 AND 108 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN EXPERIENCED RECENTLY WILL
COME TO AN END. CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS ARIZONA AND
CALIFORNIA...THOUGH SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 500MB HEIGHTS
WILL RISE FROM AROUND 582DM CURRENTLY TO BETWEEN 585-588DM FOR THIS
WEEKEND. THE PAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS HAS PROMPTED US TO RAISE
OUR TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...SOME AREAS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH 100 DEGREES AND THEN
MOST LOWER DESERT SPOTS SHOULD EASILY TOP THE CENTURY MARK ON FRIDAY.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...THE WARMEST AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 104-107 RANGE. THIS IS BY FAR
THE WARMEST WE WILL BE SO FAR THIS YEAR...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A
FEW DEGREES SHY OF MEETING EXCESSIVE HEAT CRITERIA. SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SATURDAY AND MONDAY ONLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY GET BOOTED INTO THE
PLAINS AS A FAIRLY LARGE PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE
SUNDAY. OVERALL CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS KEEPS ALL OF THE ENERGY MAINLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT STARTING MONDAY IT SHOULD HELP TO
LOWER HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AM EXPECTING THIS
TO HELP TO COOL THINGS OFF SLIGHTLY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WHERE HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...ALONG WITH WEAK SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLEAR...WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY
AOB 8KTS...MOSTLY FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD DRY WEATHER WILL FINALLY
RETURN TO THE DISTRICT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE PROMINENT HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY OVER 100F WILL BE COMMON AT LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOLLOWING FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SFC WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS...HOWEVER A PERIODS OF SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...MO



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