Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 130405 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1005 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Clear skies, dry air, and light winds have allowed temperatures to
cool quickly tonight. No major changes were made to the going
forecast, although minimum temperatures were lowered by a few
degrees across East Texas, so all locations should fall below
freezing tonight. Otherwise, some minor updates were made to the
hourly trends.

A Fire Danger Statement has been issued areawide for Wednesday.
Southwest winds will increase into the 10 to 15 kt range, with
higher gusts across East Texas, during the day Wednesday. Combined
with the already dry air mass in place, relative humidity values
are expected to fall to below 25 percent areawide and to near or
below 20 percent across most of the area north of a line from
Tyler, to Shreveport, to El Dorado.

Updated text products have already been sent.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

VFR conditions will continue through the 13/00Z TAF period. SKC
will prevail overnight through much of Wednesday, although some
thin cirrus will begin to spread ENE across Deep and SE TX, Cntrl
and Srn LA Wednesday morning and afternoon. Sfc ridging will move
into the region tonight from Cntrl LA, resulting in calm/Lt and
Vrb winds overnight. However, this ridging will weaken after
daybreak Wednesday, with the pressure gradient expected to tighten
by mid to late morning ahead of cold front entering the Srn Plains
and Ozarks region by afternoon. Thus, SW winds will increase to
10-15kts with gusts to 18-22kts by late morning/midday over much
of the region. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/


SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday/...

Beautiful yet cooler conditions today compared to 24 hours ago with
afternoon temperatures still just a few degrees shy of 60 degrees.
Pressure gradient is beginning to relax somewhat across our region
this afternoon with the sfc ridge axis centered across the Texas
Hill Country into Central and Northeast Oklahoma. This feature will
quickly move eastward across our region overnight which should allow
for near calm conditions and ideal radiational cooling conditions.
For this reason, have undercut MOS temps overnight for most areas
which should result in near freezing temperatures for most areas

A strengthening pressure gradient will be in place across the
Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley on Wednesday and with southwest
winds returning to our region, this should result in a rapid warmup
areawide. Likewise, southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with higher
gusts, especially across Northeast Texas, will couple with very low
afternoon relative humidity values to produce an elevated fire
threat, especially across the Middle Red River Valley of Northeast
Texas, Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas where critically
dry fuels currently exist. Another dry cold front will be
approaching the I-30 Corridor after sunset Wednesday Evening with
the front expected to push through our region Wednesday Night.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Tuesday/

Wednesday`s cold front will bring another cooler airmass to the
region, keeping our temperatures Thursday only topping out in the
mid 50s to low 60s. Positively-tilted upper trof will dig sewd
across the Srn Plains late Thursday into Friday, bringing yet
another reinforcing shot of cold air into the region. However,
swly flow aloft will quickly overtake the region in response to a
developing upper low /left over from the Friday trof/ over Mexico.
Moisture will quickly increase throughout the column Saturday,
with widespread shwrs/tstms spreading newd Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Some significant differences in model solutions
exist in this timeframe and beyond, and the Euro remains the more
progressive model when compared to the GFS attm. Have kept PoPs
conservative as a result, but model trends do look promising for
better agreement.

Despite model discrepancies, the remainder of the fcst pd looks to
be dry and temperatures very near normal values. /12/


SHV  31  68  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  65  37  58 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  27  67  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  31  67  36  55 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  28  65  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  32  70  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  31  69  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  31  68  40  63 /   0   0   0   0




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