Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 180341 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
941 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

A band of very light precip continues to very slowly move
southeast across Deep East Texas and Northern Louisiana. This is
occurring behind a surface cold front, which has moved well south
of the area. The rain is either very light or just drizzle as
radar returns are quite weak. This conclusion is also supported by
the fact that the WSR-88D is automatically switching into VCP 32
rather than staying in "precip mode." Therefore, PoPs were
decreased somewhat for the remainder of the night.

Across Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and portions of
extreme Southwest Arkansas, low clouds have not yet developed.
This has allowed temperatures to cool quickly. Many locations in
our northwest zones are already within a couple degrees of
forecast lows. Therefore, minimum temperatures were lowered by a
few degrees in that area. I would not be surprised to see
temperatures warm by one or two degrees after temperatures bottom
out after midnight once low clouds and fog begin to develop.

Speaking of fog, surface obs show that patchy fog is already
developing across East Texas and Southwest Arkansas. Areas of fog
were inserted into the grids after midnight in areas without PoPs.
Maintained the wording of "patchy" rather than "areas of" after
sunrise since visibilities should slowly improve after daybreak,
even though patchy fog will likely persist for several hours
Sunday morning.

Updated text products will be sent shortly.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

IFR conditions to prevail through much of the terminal forecast
period with tempo MVFR possible. Mist/BR may keep visibilities
around 4SM tonight through Sunday morning. Surface winds will be
North 5-10 knots into the evening, becoming Northeast and east
18/06z. By 18/18Z, winds will become south and increase to 10
knots. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/

Cloudy and dreary conditions today are a sign of things to come as
the weather pattern looks very unsettled throughout next week with
appreciable rain chances nearly every day.

For the short term, frontal boundary remains hung up right at our
southeasternmost CWA near Colfax over to near Jena but will slowly
push on south overnight. Post-frontal light rain will with a few
embedded moderate showers will continue to shift SE behind the
front this evening and overnight. The front is expected to stall
along the coast early Sunday before washing out and giving way to
a return to much warmer air during the day on Sunday. Returning SW
flow aloft will allow for slight to low chance POPs for Sunday but
expect most areas to remain dry.

This warming trend will carry through early in the new work week
with well above average temperatures both Monday and Tuesday. Very
warm and moist flow from the Gulf will produce more springlike air
mass with high temperatures pushing the lower 80s for many areas,
possibly warmer over our southern sections. Slight to low chance
POPs will also carry into Monday for much of the area with our NW
zones seeing better odds with embedded upper disturbances passing
in the SW flow aloft. Rain chances will really ramp Tuesday and
especially Tuesday night into Wednesday with a slow-moving cold
front transitioning across the region. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front with 2-3 inches of rainfall
spread across much of the region through the end of next week and
possibly higher amounts along and north of I-30 where 4+ inches
may occur. For now, the severe potential looks quite low with the
heavy rainfall spread out over several days so that flash flooding
doesn`t appear to be a major concern.

Wet and unsettled weather will continue through next weekend with
the cold front stalling to our south and lifting back northward as
SW flow aloft returns as well. Therefore, POPs have been carried
through the remainder of the extended period. Temperatures will
return closer to normal by Wednesday behind the cold front, but
then push back above normal by the end of the week as the front
lifts back northward as a warm front on Friday. Models diverge on
the timing of our next cold front but generally agree on a slow
progression through our region late next weekend.



SHV  47  66  60  80 /  10  30  20  10
MLU  46  66  60  80 /  30  40  10  10
DEQ  37  58  52  73 /   0  30  40  50
TXK  42  59  56  78 /  10  30  30  30
ELD  43  60  55  79 /  10  30  20  10
TYR  47  67  61  76 /  10  30  20  30
GGG  47  67  60  79 /  10  30  20  20
LFK  52  74  62  80 /  30  30  10  20




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