Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 121706
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1106 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS AREA TERMINAL LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA BUT SHOULD CONTINUE ITS
SOUTHWARD PUSH LATER TODAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER DRIER
AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. AS OF 17Z...THE FRONT
HAD PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT THE LFK TERMINAL.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...WITH SOME NORTH
COMPONENT LESS THAN 10KTS. A N TO NNE WIND WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
LESS THAN 7 KTS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 7-12KTS AFTER SUNRISE
ON SATURDAY.

A CU FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THE LFK TERMINAL BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SCATTER OUT WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH LATER TODAY. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME AC MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
HEIGHTS NEAR 15KFT OR SO.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE TX...TO
NEAR COLUMBIA LA MARKING A SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN TEMPS N OF THE
FRONT IN THE MID 50S/DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S AND TEMPS S OF THE
FRONT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S/DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. STRONG
PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE PLAINS IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT TODAY...WHICH WILL PUSH THE FRONT S OF THE
REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DOESN`T LOOK TO OCCUR IN TIME
TO PREVENT TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS DEEP E
TX/ADJACENT W CENTRAL LA. TEMPS ACROSS THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY
EXCEEDED THE DIURNAL CURVE...SO HAVE RAISED TEMPS TO BETTER
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO DEW
POINTS/RH VALUES TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER ELEMENTS OF THE FCST APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK
FOR TODAY...SO NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM.

/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  40  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  65  37  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  65  32  48  28 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  64  35  47  33 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  63  33  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  69  42  58  45 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  68  42  54  38 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  75  45  60  39 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13


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