Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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960
FXUS64 KSHV 191516
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
916 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Areas of fog slow to lift as deep sfc based inversion with
saturated layer to around 900 mb seen on 12z sounding. Showers of
mostly lgt rain still developing above this inversion layer as
well. Added dense fog to fcst as some obs still around 1/4 mile
vsby at 9 am. Will update again as this fog lifts and rain begins
to shift further eastward./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 552 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

AVIATION...
LIFR/VLIFR cigs with reduced vsbys in FG will persist this morning
across the region, as a warm front will continue to gradually lift
N across NE LA/SE AR/N MS through the afternoon. While the more
organized and deeper convection lies to our S over Cntrl/Srn LA
and Ern LA into MS, areas of -SHRA should develop and shift NE
across lower E TX into N LA/Scntrl AR later this morning, which
should help to slightly improve vsbys. These -SHRA should
gradually diminish from W to E by early afternoon, exiting the
region by/shortly after 21Z. Drier air aloft mixing E with the
passage of the associated upper level low this afternoon should
result in the low cigs eventually mixing out over at least the
Wrn sections of E TX by mid to late afternoon, but did maintain
MVFR cigs for the GGG/LFK/SHV terminals with IFR cigs expected to
prevail farther E across much of N LA/SW AR. For those areas where
cigs do lift/scatter out, low MVFR cigs should develop by mid-
evening and fill back in, persisting through the remainder of the
TAF period with the slightly stronger bndry lyr winds. IFR cigs
with patchy FG should remain overnight across N LA/SW AR where
winds will be weaker, with gradual improvement expected by late
morning/early afternoon Friday. Lt/VRB winds this morning will
gradually become S and increase to 5-11kts after 18Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Today fog will persist through the morning along with light rain
across the region which will make conditions dreary. A Front has
moved into the area from the west but has become stationary across
portions of Northern Louisiana and Southeast Oklahoma this
morning. Conditions will improve on Friday with temperatures
rebounding to U60s to L70s South of I-20; Southerly winds will
help usher in humid air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the short
wave trough in the SW United States.

Saturday, the short wave trough will continue to move east and
bring unsettled weather across the Ark-La-Tex in the form of
showers and thunderstorms. At this time we can`t rule out severe
weather across the area with the instability profiles looking
marginally conducive. Saturday model data is showing LCL heights <
1500 ft along with a low level jet of 50 to 100 kts combined with
with 20 kts of shear at the surface for the four state region.

Sunday the weather will be east of the Ark-La-Tex with clearing
and light southerly winds which will allow the area to dry out
until the next weather maker next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  54  75  55 /  40  10  10  30
MLU  70  54  76  57 /  80  10  10  40
DEQ  64  49  71  48 /  20  10  10  20
TXK  62  52  72  53 /  30  10  10  30
ELD  64  51  73  54 /  60  10  10  20
TYR  68  52  74  54 /  10   0  10  30
GGG  67  53  74  54 /  20  10  10  30
LFK  67  55  77  57 /  30  10  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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