Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 232012

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
312 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Cold front continues to make its way swd this aftn, and is now s
of I-20. Convection along the front is concentrated across Deep E
TX/N Central LA, with some isold activity elsewhere. Front will
stall Thursday somewhere along our srn areas, and will continue to
serve as a focus for mainly diurnally driven convection through
Friday. Cooler temps in the post-frontal air will keep us below
normal through the remainder of the work week.

The big story of the forecast is of course Harvey. Harvey is
currently a depression and is expected to reach tropical storm
strength tonight or early Thursday morning. 12Z model runs have
again made drastic changes to the overall scenario, which
unfortunately keeps the whole event very uncertain attm,
especially as it pertains to our region. New model runs stalling
Harvey over S TX through Monday after a Friday night landfall.
This will leave our area largely non-impacted, save for a few
outer bands that will bear watching for an isold tornado threat.
However, heavier rain will eventually move into our area Tuesday.
Very difficult to say exactly where the heaviest rain will fall,
but the Toledo Bend region appears to be the bullseye of the
current model guidance. Event totals of six to ten inches with the
possibility of higher amounts appears to be the consensus attm,
with lesser amounts expected further n and w into our region.
These amounts will fall in the end of our fcst pd and beyond.
Expect adjustments to amounts and impacts over the next several
days as the fcst is refined. Fingers crossed for better run to run
model consistency.

With regard to temperatures in the extended, have stayed just
above blended guidance, as there is still quite a spread in models
with regard to timing of clouds/precip associated with Harvey.
Temperatures still do, however, come in well below seasonal
normals. /12/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 101 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the
afternoon and overnight hours. However, cu cigs have developed
over Deep E TX and much of N LA, near a weak mid level trough
extending from SE TX into Ncntrl LA. Much of the sct convection
should continue to develop this afternoon along this bndry,
possibly affecting the MLU terminal where VCSH was added. However,
isolated convection can not be ruled out at LFK but will amend as
needed. In addition, isolated to sct convection can`t be ruled out
by mid to late afternoon over Scntrl AR and Ncntrl LA near a weak
sfc front, possibly affecting ELD and MLU. Isolated convection may
also develop farther W across extreme SW AR/NW LA/NE TX, but
confidence remains too low to include in the TAF`s attm, and will
amend as needed. Much of the convection that develops this
afternoon should diminish by mid to late evening, with some cu
lingering overnight. The wind shift with the sfc front is
expected to drift back S into SE TX/S LA with the loss of mixing,
but low MVFR/IFR cigs may develop by or shortly before 12Z
Thursday over E TX/NW LA along the true low level front which will
near the I-20 corridor. Slow improvement to cigs are expected over
these areas by mid to late morning, with VFR conditions returning
for the afternoon. NE winds 5-8kts this afternoon will become ENE
5kts or less after 00Z. /15/


SHV  74  89  70  89 /  30  20  10  30
MLU  71  87  68  85 /  30  20  10  20
DEQ  68  85  65  86 /  20   0  10  10
TXK  70  85  66  87 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  69  86  67  87 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  87  71  89 /  30  30  20  30
GGG  74  88  70  88 /  30  30  10  30
LFK  75  90  73  89 /  30  40  30  30




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