Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291806 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
106 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND A GOOD PORTION
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL BE AFFECTED WITH
SCT CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE TX/SE OK...BUT ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS CONVECTION MAY FIRE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BNDRY PRODUCED FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...EXTENDING FROM JUST SE OF JSO...TO NEAR ASL...TO NEAR
TXK...WHICH COULD BE EXPAND COVERAGE AS AN ENHANCED SEABREEZE OVER
EXTREME SE TX/SRN LA WORKS NNW INTO DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA. FOR
NOW...HAVE ONLY ADDED TEMPO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE TXK AND LFK
TERMINALS PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...AND HAVE CONTINUED VCTS FOR
THE SHV/MLU TERMINALS FOR THE EXPECTATION THAT THE SEABREEZE WILL
AFFECT THESE AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE A WEAKENING
TREND SHOULD OCCUR THIS EVENING...LEAVING A BLANKET OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVERHEAD...ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER S LA
LATE THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL WORK NNE ACROSS NCNTRL LA LATE.
HAVE ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR MLU LATE...WITH PREVAILING SHRA AROUND
DAYBREAK...AND AROUND MIDMORNING FOR ELD...WITH IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/SPREAD N ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AROUND/AFTER DAYBREAK. THESE CIGS SHOULD BE SLOW TO LIFT SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT LEAST OVER E
TX FOR THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON OVER N LA/SCNTRL AR...THUS
MAINTAINING LOW CIGS/REDUCED VSBYS. SSE WINDS 5-10KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SE OR VRB 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF MORNING CONVECTION RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NE
TX...TO NEAR SE OK BORDER. ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY ACROSS
THIS AREA...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED AFTN HIGHS TO MAINLY
UPPER 80S ACROSS THIS REGION. FURTHER EAST...RAISED DAYTIME TEMPS
SLIGHTLY PER CURRENT TRENDS. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  74  86  73  91 /  40  30  70  40  40
MLU  95  73  85  71  89 /  30  40  70  50  40
DEQ  88  71  87  70  89 /  60  40  40  30  20
TXK  94  72  86  71  88 /  40  40  60  30  30
ELD  95  72  85  71  88 /  30  40  70  50  40
TYR  88  75  89  74  91 /  60  30  40  20  20
GGG  92  74  88  73  90 /  60  30  60  30  30
LFK  95  75  86  74  91 /  40  30  70  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




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