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000
FXUS64 KSHV 160330
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1030 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Very few breaks in cloud cover remain this evening as S/SE flow
continues to increase Gulf moisture across the region. Warm air
advection showers, albeit light and spotty, persist over some of
our NW zones with a few embedded thunderstorms still not ruled out
overnight as a disturbance aloft continues to advance through the
SW flow into the Middle Red River Valley. So for this update, did
tweak PoPs slightly to reflect current radar trends along with an
upward adjustment of roughly a degree for overnight lows. Aside
from those changes, the remainder of the forecast is on track. All
updated text products have been issued.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Upper ridging remains in place over the region. But, southerly
winds have continued to advect some low-level moisture into the
region, which has resulted in a low stratus deck over the region.
The upper ridge will shift east of the region by this evening, and
then we will transition into SW Flow aloft ahead of an
approaching trough and associated frontal boundary. Can`t rule out
some showers, and possibly and isolated thunderstorm, moving into
the NW half of the region this evening and through the overnight
hours.

By tomorrow, the aforementioned trough will start to eject into
the Northern Plains. The frontal boundary will likely stall just
NW of the I-30 corridor across our region. However, models suggest
some convection will still make it into the area, generally NW of
a line from Lufkin Texas to Shreveport to El Dorado Arkansas.
Although the best dynamics will likely be just north of the
region, there is a Slight Risk for some severe weather along and
north of the I-30 corridor. With steep lapse rates, hail and
damaging winds appear the be the biggest threat, but there could
be just enough shear to not rule out an isolated tornado. Rain
chances will decrease by Thursday afternoon/evening, as the upper
trough continues to shift NE into the Upper Midwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Clouds will hang across the region on Wednesday, but dry
conditions are expected. Despite the cloud cover, temps are
expected to climb into the mid 80s, with some isolated upper 80s
possible. Rain chances look to return Thursday as several
disturbances will move along zonal flow across the region. Rain
chances will continue as a cold front move across the region
Friday, followed by a stronger front over the weekend. Noticeably
cooler temperatures will move into the region in wake of the 2nd
front, with dry conditions returning by late Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR cigs will lower overnight with
MVFR/IFR 09-15Z for most sites. We`ll see southerly flow become
brisk with gusts 20-30KT at times this cycle. The pressure
gradient is ramping up with an upper low moving across the plains
and up into the upper MS River Valley during Tuesday. So another
glancing blow for us with some convection early in E TX, that
will shift eastward during the aftn. Coverage will remain sparse
with little impact and amending for such, given the uncertainty.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  83  71  86 /  10  40  10   0
MLU  67  85  70  85 /  10  10  10   0
DEQ  65  78  64  85 /  30  60  20   0
TXK  66  79  68  85 /  20  60  20   0
ELD  65  82  68  85 /  10  40  20   0
TYR  69  80  70  85 /  10  40   0   0
GGG  68  81  70  85 /  10  50   0   0
LFK  68  84  70  87 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24