Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 240555
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND AFFECT
THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KTXK 24/06-11Z...KSHV
AND KELD 24/08-13Z...AND KMLU 24/09-14Z. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING INTO KGGG AND KTYR AROUND 24/06-10Z AND KLFK 24/08-12Z BUT
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY LOWERING
BELOW 7 KNOTS NEAR 25/00Z. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AT 0340Z...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS RACING EWD AND WAS LOCATED
FROM NEAR KLFK...TO KRSN...TO NEAR KCDH. A COLD FRONT WAS FARTHER
NW ROUGHLY FROM NEAR KTYR...TO KDEQ . DRY AIR IS QUICKLY INVADING
BEHIND THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH BUT THE COLD AIR IS STILL WELL TO
THE NW. TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AS THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES. NWLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO UP 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY FLIRT
WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY
OCCURRENCES WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND SPOTTY TO WARRANT ISSUING A
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS AS THE SFC LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES.

HAVE UPDATED WIND/DEWPOINT GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS AND THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. ALSO ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME WRAP-AROUND STRATUS THAT WILL AFFECT SE OK/SW
AR/NE TX. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS WERE LEFT INTACT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS QUICKLY MOVED EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH DRY SLOTTING
CLEARING OUT CLOUDS IN ALL BUT EXTREME EASTERN CWA. COLD FRONT
WEST OF DFW...HOWEVER...LOWER DEW POINTS APPROACHING NE TX IN
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS OVER PANHANDLE REGION MAY CLIP AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-30 LATER TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER-WISE AS BROAD RIDGING OVER WESTERN US BRINGING WNW
FLOW ALOFT TO AREA. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP
TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHERN CWA MONDAY
NIGHT. COLD CORE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY NOT CONTAIN
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY ISOLD CONVECTION...AS NAM IS TRYING TO
ADVERTISE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURNING LATE IN WEEKEND...COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  62  35  64  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  45  62  35  62  36 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  39  60  32  60  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
TXK  41  59  31  61  35 /   0   0  10   0   0
ELD  43  59  35  61  34 /  10   0  10  10   0
TYR  42  62  35  63  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
GGG  43  61  34  64  36 /   0   0  10   0   0
LFK  44  64  37  65  37 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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