Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 221946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO THE AIRMASS EXPECT
AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NYS AND TO AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...WITH THESE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE CEILINGS DOWN TO
2-3K FT WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM IN +RA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT
WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL HAVE CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 1K FT/VSBY BELOW 1SM
IN FOG...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ELSEWHERE IN PATCHY FOG.

AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN






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