Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 150254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WITH SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE
30S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY MONDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE
REGION LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING BACK DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BAND OF CLOUDS TRAPPED JUST BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRESENT AN IDEAL
SETUP FOR EXTENSIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FROST DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED SPOTS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
30S. IN FACT...WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT BEING FOUND OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT.. INTERIOR SECTIONS OF OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON
ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTIES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE MID
30S. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE AREAS. THE SAME
TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CATTARAUGUS...ALLEGANY AND WYOMING COUNTIES WITH A FROST ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS AS WELL.

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE EAST
ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 100
KNOT UPPER JET STREAK. TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE
REMAINS CENTERED ON MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
FORCING WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
STRENGTHENS IN THE PRESENCE OF BRIEF FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION UPPER JET SUPPORT. MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO THE WEST BY LATE
IN THE DAY. THIS PROCESS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT THE ONSET GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE EXISTING DRY LAYER. AN EXTENSIVE CANOPY OF
HIGH CLOUD WILL MINIMIZE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR BETTER PRE-FRONTAL
DESTABILIZATION. AT THIS STAGE...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE. WHILE THE SURFACE
FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...IT WILL HELP TO GENERATE AN AREA
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH WILL BE FURTHER AUGMENTED BY
STRONGER LIFT FROM THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AS WELL AS THAT FORCED
BY A REGION OF DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL JET. ALL OF THIS WILL IN TURN ACT ON A DEEP ENOUGH AND
FAVORABLE ENOUGH SWATH OF MOISTURE TO BRING A QUICK-MOVING ROUND OF
SHOWERS TO OUR REGION...FOR WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE. GIVEN THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
AND PWATS OF AROUND AN INCH...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE
EXCESSIVE...BUT SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF AN INCH IN MOST SPOTS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END DURING THE
COURSE OF TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEST-TO-EAST
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE.

AFTER THAT...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...SAVE FOR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE WASHING OUT ALTOGETHER ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE LIMITED ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE LACK OF NOTEWORTHY
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FRONT FOR NOW...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
OTHERWISE CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL REMAIN BELOW MID SEPTEMBER AVERAGES
GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
TO GENERALLY AVERAGE OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...BEFORE POSSIBLY
DROPPING BACK SOME 3-5 DEGREES FOR THURSDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
BRIEFLY WORKS INTO OUR REGION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BACK TO THE MID-UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST
CONCERNS FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT FROM NEW YORK STATE TO
THE MAINE COASTLINE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DRY DAY...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW OF MILDER AIR BEGINS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EASTERN CANADA.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS TO OUR
REGION...THE CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY OUT OF IT WILL ALSO HELP TO
PUMP EVEN WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
TO FINALLY CLIMB BACK TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CIGS BETWEEN 4-6K FEET ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MAINLY CLEAR...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR VALLEY FOG IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD REACH
WESTERN AREAS AFTER 22Z.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE
LAKES TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND
MUCH OF THE WAVE ACTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SHORES OF
THE LAKES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TUESDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ006>008-012-
     020-021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR/RSH
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA







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