Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 241946
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
346 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Upper air analysis shows a shear axis/trough roughly situated across
the Interstate 20 corridor this afternoon. Showers have been
developing along this feature since early this morning...and should
continue through this afternoon and into the evening. The activity
is slowly drifting south this afternoon. The primary threat for
severe weather this afternoon will be localized flooding. Ponding of
water in low lying areas and on roadways is also possible during the
afternoon commute for the Atlanta Metro. Do think that the showers
will linger a bit this evening but should begin tapering off after
midnight.

Even though the airmass will remain very moist, high pressure aloft
and at the surface will dominate the weather pattern. The best
chances should be across the north GA, but should remain in the
slight chance/chance category.

NListemaa


.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast. Long range models
still in good agreement through Friday with a strong mid to upper
high pressure ridge dominating the southeast. This ridge will
keep precip chances to a minimum across north Georgia as a weak
surface trough sags into the TN Valley. Over the weekend... both
ECMWF and GFS shift the 500MB ridge eastward to the mid Atlantic
Coast which allows the associated surface ridge to build along the
New England coast. This overall synoptic pattern results in a deep
layer easterly flow across the state that appears to persist over
the weekend and into early next week. The forecast and overall
concern gets real interesting by late this weekend and into early
next week as the ECMWF is taking a surface low across south
Florida on Sunday... across the central Gulf Monday-Tuesday and
then inland along the TX/LA border early on Wednesday of next
week. In contrast... the GFS is taking this surface low up along
eastern FL Monday- Tuesday... then along the GA coast on Wednesday
and finally turning the low pressure system northeast and out to
sea by end week. Now the overall synoptic pattern and deep
easterly flow would favor a westward movement of any low pressure
system moving toward FL or into the southeast- eastern Gulf... and
therefore the latest ECMWF solution seems to be a bit more
reasonable at this time. Either way... both long range models are
showing a low pressure system pushing up into FL by late weekend
or early next week... so all interest across GA and the deep south
are greatly encouraged to closely monitor the tropics over the
next several days.

39/01


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Showers have developed across the metro area this afternoon. Don`t
think lightning will be much of an issue, so have only left shra
in the tempo group. Winds will be very light and will probably
flirt with due south for the next few hours, but do expect them to
go back to SE this evening. Winds may go light and variable
overnight, but should return to the east side during once mixing
gets going. Precip coverage should be less tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  92  71  94 /  30   5   5  10
Atlanta         72  91  73  92 /  30   5   5  10
Blairsville     65  86  67  86 /  20  30  20  20
Cartersville    70  91  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus        72  92  72  94 /  30   5   5   5
Gainesville     70  90  72  90 /  30  20  10  10
Macon           69  93  69  93 /  20   0   5   5
Rome            71  92  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
Peachtree City  69  91  69  93 /  30   5   5   5
Vidalia         70  93  71  94 /  10   5   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...NListemaa


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