Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 050025
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
825 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S AND DEWPTS BETWEEN
70- 75F...A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL GA. HOWEVER...BEHIND YESTERDAY`S UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE...MUCH OF THE AREA APPEARS TO BE IN A SMALL SUBSIDENT
ZONE WITH WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND ANY SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
6 KM CONFINED TO SOUTHERN GA AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. ALL
THAT SAID...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE A FEW LOW-TOP SHOWERS
AND STORMS THRU SUNSET...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75 AND SOUTH OF
I-20. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL
EXIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NW
FLOW ALOFT AND A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS GA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BUILD DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS INTO NORTH GA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. MODELS SHOW INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS WEDGE TYPE FEATURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MAX HEATING OF THE DAY AND BEST INSTABILITY. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE MIN AND MAX TEMPS WHICH WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WITH THE WEDGE. INCREASED
POPS INTO THE GOOD CHANCE RANGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. EXPECT AROUND 0.10-0.20 INCHES OF RAIN.

16

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER INTERESTING UPR LVL PATTERN WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST
REGION OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPR LVL WAVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST...GETTING CAUGHT
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BETWEEN TWO UPR LVL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
THIS COULD POTENTIALLY TRANSLATE TO AN UNSETTLED/WET SEVERAL DAYS
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GA.

SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY /MONDAY/...EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED (30-50%
COVERAGE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS BROAD UPR WAVE/LOW DRIFTS W/SW
ACROSS THE AREA. INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH
NOTICEABLE "WEDGE" COULD ENHANCE LOW LVL CONVG AND CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY. AS A RESULT...COULD SEE A FEW STORMS GET STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY WHERE BETTER SFC HEATING OCCURS.
EASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES.
EXPECT GENERALLY MID 80S FOR HIGH TEMPS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPR WAVE/LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
THE NRN GULF EARLY THIS PERIOD BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON WHAT TO DO WITH IT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPR LOW...RAIN CHANCES
COULD REMAIN HIGH ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE MODELS HAVE THIS
UPR LOW DRIFTING WEST AND FALLING APART BY MID WEEK WHICH COULD
TRANSLATE TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES. IN ANY CASE...ALL MODELS APPEAR
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BRING
COOLER/DRIER AIR TO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS UPR LVL LOW...WILL GO WITH A
COMPROMISE/BLEND OF PERSISTENCE/MODELS FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
AS MAJORITY OF SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED...IT SHOULD
BE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME LINGERING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR OR ABOVE 7 KFT OVERNIGHT. WINDS ALSO BECOMING NE
TO EAST GENERALLY UNDER 7 KTS. SITES NEAR KATL AND KMCN COULD SEE
SOME PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE EARLY MORNING FROM EVENING
MOISTURE WHERE STORMS OCCURRED...SO WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TEMPO FOR
08-12Z FOR MVFR VSBY IN FUTURE UPDATES. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
LOWER CIGS COMING IN FROM THE EAST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT BUT NOT
CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE IN TAF. OTHERWISE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
POSSIBLE GENERALLY FROM 18-00Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CIGS AROUND
5 KFT WITH CONTINUED EAST WINDS 6-9 KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MORNING MVFR VSBY POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  86  69  84 /  20  40  30  30
ATLANTA         72  87  70  84 /  20  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     65  82  63  79 /  20  50  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    69  89  68  85 /  20  40  20  40
COLUMBUS        74  91  72  87 /  20  40  40  40
GAINESVILLE     70  84  69  81 /  20  50  30  30
MACON           71  89  69  86 /  20  50  50  30
ROME            68  90  69  86 /  10  30  20  30
PEACHTREE CITY  70  88  68  84 /  20  50  40  40
VIDALIA         73  89  71  87 /  30  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...BAKER



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