700
FXUS64 KSHV 090308
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1008 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Expanded Tornado Watch 210 in time to midnight and included some
Arkansas counties for a while longer too active SVR warnings.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Primarily to warm overnight lows at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 1001 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The HRRR has been wrong before, so we will give these storms a
couple more hours of breathing room along our I-30 corridor with
the Tornado Watch editing so to speak. Lots of CAPE and momentum
now with radar trying to play connect the dots on these towers.
We have kept some maybe severe wording in for the overnight at
this time. More to come by midnight and of course and in our new
zone package for the day ahead with our broad I-20 corridor
Enhanced Risk for day 2. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Quieter weather briefly returns through the weekend before
precipitation chances are reintroduced early next week. Quasi-
zonal flow aloft will allow for a mid-level trough to drift
eastward across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This
trough, in combination with ridging shifting further east across
the Mississippi River, will maintain enhanced southerly flow and
moisture through most of early next week. Precipitation chances
will remain through the same time period as a result. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Widespread haze originating from Mexico and Central America will
result in some instances of MVFR visibilities at the start of the
period. A complex of strong to severe convection is expected to
enter portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas around
09/02z before moving southeast affecting most TAF sites. The
storms should begin to rapidly weaken after midnight local time,
so convection was not mentioned at KMLU or KLFK. Low clouds are
expected to rapidly develop after the storms dissipate resulting
in widespread IFR/LIFR flight conditions. A slow improvement is
expected after daybreak Thursday, but VFR conditions should return
to most sites by 09/18z. More strong to severe thunderstorms are
anticipated to affect Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas,
potentially affecting KTYR, near the end of this TAF cycle.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  90  67  83 /  40  30  50   0
MLU  75  90  65  81 /  30  20  60   0
DEQ  66  86  58  80 /  60  30  30   0
TXK  72  87  62  81 /  70  30  40   0
ELD  72  86  61  80 /  60  20  40   0
TYR  72  88  65  82 /  40  40  40   0
GGG  74  88  65  82 /  40  30  50   0
LFK  74  92  67  84 /  10  30  40   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09