915
FXUS64 KSHV 100005
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
705 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #224 has been issued through midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A second Severe Thunderstorm Watch #224  has been issued for deep
east TX and Toledo Bend Country for this evening until midnight.
Large hail and damaging winds with an isolated tornado now
possible south of I-20. This activity will continue toward the MS
River after midnight. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A brief break in active weather will come to an end as the next
workweek begins across the Four State Region. This is due to a
quasi-zonal synoptic pattern augmented by a series of slower
troughs and faster embedded shortwaves across northern Mexico and
the Southern Plains. The first of these disturbances will arrive
to instigate widespread convection as early as late Sunday into
early Monday, while the next disturbance in the parade will arrive
as early as Wednesday to keep precipitation chances going through
most of the rest of the week. Day 1-7 QPF values of widespread 3+
inch totals are expected with isolated higher amounts possible as
a result. Otherwise, temperature maximums/minimums in the 80s/60s
will gradually return above normal (maximums approaching 90 once
again) after the middle of next week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Scattered strong to severe convection will remain possible across
much of the ArkLaTex through 10/05z. All TAF sites will be
affected, but the risk of thunderstorms should generally begin to
diminish from northwest to southeast beginning around 10/03z. A
few scattered showers will remain possible through the overnight
hours, but all rain chances should end before daybreak Friday
morning. Outside of convective effects, VFR flight conditions
should generally prevail with the exception of possibly a brief
period of MVFR ceilings at KLFK. However, VFR conditions with only
some high cirrus clouds are expected after 10/13z across the
region.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  84  62  82 /  50   0   0   0
MLU  66  83  59  82 /  70   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  82 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  62  83  58  83 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  56  81 /  40   0   0   0
TYR  65  83  61  80 /  50   0   0   0
GGG  65  83  61  81 /  50   0   0   0
LFK  67  85  64  82 /  50   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09