755
FXUS64 KSHV 110850
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
350 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Quiet weather should remain in place for most of this short-term,
as upper-level ridging remains overhead. This will allow highs
today to remain in the low to mid-80s, and lows tonight to range
in the low to mid-60s. However, rain chances will dramatically
begin to increase by Sunday morning as the first disturbance moves
into the region. This rain will be moderate to heavy at times,
with 2-4 inches of rainfall possible through Tuesday morning.
Because of this rainfall, highs on Sunday will only get up into
the low to mid-70s into the afternoon hours.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An active long-term kicks off by Monday morning, as a shortwave
trough begins to work through the region. Along with this trough,
a weak cold front will begin moving to the SE, which will the
catalyst for additional heavy rainfall and severe weather. As
storms first fire along this front, the primary threat will be
large hail as storms remain somewhat isolated. However, as the
line continues to grow, that threat will shift into a damaging
wind threat. While the tornado threat will be secondary, there is
an enhanced area of lower level flow along the front through
Monday morning, which could result in an isolated tornado on the
north end of the slight risk. A break in the weather is expected
by the middle of the week, before the next trough begins to move
into the region by Thursday. While severe weather remains to be
seen with this one, another 1-3 inches of rainfall will be
possible along and south of I-20, which could put our week long
total at 6+ inches on some locations.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

For the 11/06z TAFS...Expect VFR conditions to prevail through
the period with some scattered to broken mid and high clouds
streaming through. Can`t rule out some brief isolated light rain
at KLFK overnight, then across most of the TAF sites after sunset
tomorrow. Winds will be light/variable overnight and again
Saturday night, with light ESE winds during daytime today.

/20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  67  77  67 /   0  20  50  80
MLU  83  65  78  64 /   0  10  20  80
DEQ  83  60  77  62 /   0  10  30  80
TXK  84  63  78  65 /   0  10  40  80
ELD  83  61  78  62 /   0  10  20  80
TYR  81  64  74  67 /  10  30  70  70
GGG  82  64  75  66 /  10  20  60  80
LFK  83  65  78  69 /   0  30  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20