Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 132128
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
428 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain very cold through the rest of the workweek, with
highs only in the upper teens and 20s. There will be ongoing
lake effect snow across north-central New York into this
evening, which could produce locally heavier amounts. A low
pressure system moves through Pennsylvania tonight, bringing
widespread light to moderate snow areawide, followed by more
lake effect snow showers on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM Update....Lake effect snow bands continue to gradually
lift off to the north and east this afternoon, as low level
winds back more westerly. The heaviest snow band is now located
across northern Onondaga County and central Oneida County. This
band could still produce rates up to 1"/hr in some locations.
Additional snowfall in these counties will be up to 4" through
early evening. Winter storms warnings for heavy lake effect snow
remain in effect until 6 PM this evening for this area.

Otherwise, our next weather system is quickly approaching from
the west. A surface low will track from near Chicago to
Pittsburgh to Philadelphia overnight. There will be strong warm
air advection out ahead of this low, along with a good band of
frontogenetic forcing in the 850-700mb range. The best
dynamics/forcing/lift look to track across the northern tier of
PA and into the central southern tier of NY...generally in the
04-10Z (11pm-5am) time period. Steady light snow should move
into Steuben County between 7-9pm, then quickly overspread the
interstate 81 corridor around 10pm...reaching the eastern
portion of the area by midnight. Snow rates could be up to 1"/hr
for a short times along the NY/PA border region. The snow will
quickly diminish, and move southeast, out of the area by around
7am Thursday morning. Overnight snowfall totals are forecast to
range from 2 to 4 inches in Steuben, Chemung counties as well as
all of our NE PA counties. For the rest of the southern tier
(Tioga, Broome, Delaware, Sullivan counties) expect 1 to 3
inches of snow overnight. Further north, across most of Central
NY snow amounts should be lighter, mainly under 2
inches...except locally higher amounts where lake enhancement
lingers in N. Onondaga/Oneida county....where 2 to 4 inches will
be possible. With these totals in mind, decided to go ahead and
issue winter weather advisories for all of our NE PA counties
as well as Steuben and Chemung counties in NY. This advisory is
in effect from 8PM this evening until 10 AM Thursday morning.

After the main synoptic snow moves out of the area early
Thursday morning, we are expecting linger lake effect snow
showers in a cold NW flow through the day...mainly in central
NY. Do not believe accumulations will be particularly
significant at this time...and thus am forecasting amounts of 1
to 4 inches in Onondaga/Madison/W Oneida counties...with less
than an inch elsewhere. Northwest winds will again be breezy on
Thursday between 15-25 mph. High temperatures only reach the
upper teens to mid- 20s Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 pm update... Residual lake-effect bands Thursday evening
should weaken over time and lift northward, as high pressure
builds in, and the flow backs into the SW.

On Friday, the next approaching clipper system will be crossing
the northern Great Lakes region. There may be enough forced lift
in the afternoon for some light snow in our far northern and
western zones. Overall, the moisture supply is not plentiful, so
amounts look pretty inconsequential.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 pm update... A transitional pattern looks to be in store, with
some moderation in temperatures by late in the weekend and early
next week, followed by an influx of somewhat colder air again
towards the end of the period.

Some lake-effect snow is likely by later Friday night and
Saturday across at least our far northern zones behind the
clipper mentioned in the above section. Afterwards, the latter
part of the weekend looks mainly dry, with high pressure
building in.

By early next week, a milder southerly flow sets up, with some
moisture also introducing a chance of rain, or a rain/snow mix
by Monday into Tuesday. As mentioned earlier, colder air
gradually builds back in towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A lake effect snow band will linger in the vicinity of KSYR and
KRME through the afternoon and early evening hours. Conditions
will likely fluctuate between MVFR to IFR in light to moderate
snow showers here. Over the next few hours (through 3PM or so) a
heavy snow band may impact KSYR, bringing LIFR conditions in
snow/blowing snow. Further south, the other taf sites should be
generally VFR this afternoon/early evening with sct to bkn mid
level clouds. Winds will remain gusty, out of the northwest
15-25 kts through early afternoon. Winds then decrease to AOB
12kts late evening and overnight.

The next weather system moves into the area by later this
evening, bringing another round of widespread snow from the
west...mainly after 14/02-04Z. The steadiest snow is expected
from around 14/04-12z tonight, when IFR vis/cigs are expected at
most terminal. KBGM and KAVP could also see a period of LIFR
snow during this time. Snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are
forecast overnight. Conditions will improve after 14/12z to MVFR
of VFR at most terminals. Northwest winds increase 8-15kts later
Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday through Thursday night...Lake effect snow will
probably again visiting KSYR-KRME; mainly VFR elsewhere.

Thursday night through Sunday...Still multiple chances for snow
showers/intermittent restrictions, from weak passing systems.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ022-024.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ046.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ009-
     018-036-037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MJM


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