Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 280144
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
944 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND BRING HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED
BY SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
935 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. SFC HIGH PRES WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

6:30 PM UPDATE:
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER TIOGA AND BROOME
COUNTIES WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION. WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY STILL REMAINING THROUGH SUNSET
THESE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IN THESE SHOWERS AS THEY
CONTINUE INTO NE PA WITH MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDER ENDING AFTER
SUNSET.

MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE TNGT...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...AND WITHOUT
AFNT CONV...XPCT FOG FORM IN VALLEY REGIONS BUT TO BE MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIPRES AND UPR RDG BLDS TUE INTO WED. COMBINATION OF DRIER
AIR AND MID LVL WRMG WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONV DVLPMT DESPITE THE HTG
AS TEMPS RCH NEAR OF SLGTLY ABV 90F. WARMEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE
DEEPER VLYS OF THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND IN NEPA.

COLD FNT CRASHES INTO THE RDG ON THU BUT WHILE RDG
FLATTENS...PLENTY OF MID LVL WRM AIR APRNTLY STILL ARND LIMITING
INSTABILITY. UPR SUPPORT FOR THE FNT REMAINS WELL BACK OVER THE
LAKES AND MODEL FCST OF CONV WEAKENS THRU THE DAY THU. IN ANY
EVENT...A LEAST A CHANCE OF TSTM SEEMS RSNBL FOR THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A QUIET LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE 80S LOWS
IN THE 60S). THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DENSE VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN AT KELM, JUST NOT QUITE AS EARLY AS LAST NIGHT.
BELOW AIRPORT MINS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
BETWEEN 10-12Z IMPROVING RAPIDLY AFT 13Z. AT KBGM LIGHT FOG WITH
MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE FOG RESIDING
IN THE SURROUNDING VALLEYS.

VFR TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR FOG AT ELM IN THE AM.

THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/RRM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.