Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 030034
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
734 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND
COLD NIGHT. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE... JUST COSMETIC TWEAKS MADE TO TEMP/POP/WX GRIDS THIS
EVE...AS THE CURRENT FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

LES IS WEAKENING ATTM...AS EXPECTED. AS SFC RIDGING SLIDES IN
OVERNIGHT...RESIDUAL -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END ALTOGETHER BY 03-06Z.
SC CLDS SHOULD ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO SCTR OUT AND CONTRACT
CLOSER TO THE LK ONT SHORELINE LTR THIS EVE...LEAVING SKIES MAINLY
CLEAR AT THAT POINT.

THE LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER LVL CLDS...IN ADVANCE OF TMRW`S
SYSTEM...MAY BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON WRN/SRN PTNS OF THE FA TWDS DAYBREAK.

PREV DISC... 300 PM EST UPDATE...
LE SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA AND ARE JUST
LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL NY. EXPECT FOR THESE SHOWERS TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT. ATTM... TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPR
20S AND EXPECT THESE TO RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNSET.
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION... RESULTING IN ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SKY COVERAGE WILL START TO INCREASE AROUND 12Z TUES MORNING AS THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

THE NEXT STORM WILL EXPLAINED IN DETAIL IN THE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
A COMPLEX WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWA STARTING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUES MORNING OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS... THEN
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... AND EVENTUALLY NORTH INTO QUEBEC
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK LOW... AKA.. LAKE RUNNER... WILL
CREATE A COMPLEX EVENT.

THIS EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A MIX PRECIP EVENT. PRECIP WILL
START TO FALL QUICKLY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS THE 700MB MID LVL WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. BEHIND THE FRONT... STRONG WAA
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE... WHICH WILL INDUCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS LOW... THE LAKE RUNNER... APPEARS TO
BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP BE GENERATED DUE TO
ISENTROPIC LIFT/OVERRUNNING. THE LLJ WILL BE ABOVE 60 KNOTS... THUS
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEM FOR MOISTURE TO CONDENSE RESULTING IN
PRECIP.

THIS SYSTEM WILL START OUT AS SNOW... WITH SFC TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING AT THE SFC. PRECIP WILL THEN QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND TEMPS NEAR THE SFC REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE
TEMPERATURE OF THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. THUS... THE MIX PRECIP WILL START
TO TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES
ON HOW QUICKLY TEMPS NEAR THE SFC WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THUS... A
WINTRY MIX PRECIP MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30MPH.

THE LOW`S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED MORNING... WHICH
WILL HELP WIND DOWN WHAT ACTIVITY IS LINGERING IN THE MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS MORE SO LIKE A BOUNDARY AS IT WILL HAVE WEAK CAA. THIS
FROPA MAY CREATE ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT
MAY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS FRONT
MAY HELP GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

TUES-12Z MONDAY... 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE... ALONG WITH UP
TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE. IF THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER NE
PA... COULD SEE A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ATTM THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY...NAM CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH PA/NJ AS ITS UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SHARPER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BUT WILL INCLUDE HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS NE PA DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AS FOR THE LES INITIALLY FLOW LOOKS MORE NNW WITH
HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND CENTRAL
SOUTHERN TIER. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND THE ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INCREASED POPS TO LOW LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON UNDER 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL UNDER CAA ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM, PRIMARILY TEENS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROF THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WITHIN THIS
TROF ARE RISING INDICATING AIRMASS MODIFICATION. OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NRN CWA WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND WEAKEN.
REST OF AREA WILL BE DRY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND ZERO AND
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY, OVERRUNNING MAY PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
REST OF AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY. TEMPS MAY WARM TO SEASONAL
VALUES BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING LAKE BAND IS SKIRTING KRME EARLY THIS EVENING, ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT, CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND DROPPING THE WINDS DOWN TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TOMORROW BETWEEN 17Z AND 21Z. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING AT KELM AROUND 22Z.
ADDITIONAL MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TOMORROW NIGHT. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE
MIXED PRECIPITATION.

.OUTLOOK...

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN SHOWERS BY EARLY WED.

WED NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE PA AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
NYS DUE TO SNOW.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY
CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP






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