Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 222322
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
722 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will clear skies out tonight, allowing for a cool
and clear Tuesday morning. The next chance for showers will come
late Wednesday night or Thursday, as another wave of low
pressure tracks into NY state.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

715 PM Update...High pressure will build in for tonight with
skies becoming mainly clear and winds diminishing. This along
with the recent rainfall will lead to a good chance of valley
fog late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, no
major concerns for tonight. Lows will generally be in the mid to
upper 40s.

For Tuesday, weak ridging will persist over the area keeping the
area dry between weather systems under a mix of sun and clouds.
Highs will be be mostly in the low 70s.

Little change into Tuesday night. The ridge will be weakening
over the area but the next system will still be upstream over
the Ohio Valley so dry weather will persist with lows in the
upper 40s to low 50s.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

230 pm update... Model consensus has continued to throttle back
on the eastward movement of the next deep upper trough/upper low
to develop towards the middle of the week, within the persistent blocky
flow regime. As a result, it now appears that Wednesday will be
rain-free.

By later Wednesday night and Thursday, it looks more likely that
rain will spread into the region. Confidence in the
aforementioned upper trough/upper low evolution is high, but
confidence in the exact precipitation structure and amounts are
lower. One scenario points toward heavier rain axes both well
to our east along the coast and also to our west through western
NY/PA, while another brings a more consolidated shot of rain
through CNY/NEPA. These details may not be hashed out for
another day or two, so for now, we`ll simply advertise likely
probabilities for rain.

Wednesday looks seasonably warm, with highs mostly in the 70s,
while highs Thursday should be limited to the 60s, with clouds
and precipitation anticipated.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 pm update... The above mentioned upper low will be slow to
depart Friday, so thus showers, or even a period of steadier
rain, is likely to persist.

It still looks like we`ll see improvement for at least the start
of the holiday weekend, as the upper trough lifts out into the
north Atlantic, and the flow becomes more zonal aloft. From this
early vantage point, Saturday and Sunday look mostly rain-free,
with temperatures moderating back into the upper 60s and 70s.
&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Skies will become mainly clear through this evening for most
sites with any lingering MVFR restrictions improving by mid
evening. Overnight, mainly clear skies, light winds, and the
recent rainfall will lead to a good chance of some radiation fog
developing around KELM so we keep this in the TAFs with IFR
visbys indicated. Best chances for this will be 9-11z. Brief
visby restrictions will also be possible for KAVP and KRME
however confidence not high enough to include in TAFs.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night through Friday...Rain/showers with associated
restrictions likely.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP/PCF


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