Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 300213
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1013 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THERE COULD EVEN BE A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER. A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...AFTER
BRIEF WINDOW OF SUNSHINE ENDED THE DAY. LOSS OF DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...AND PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...HAS REDUCED THE SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MADE IT INTO
NEPA...TO JUST VIRGA OR SPRINKLES. SHOULD BE QUIET NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS THE PICTURE.

610 PM UPDATE...
MADE SMALL CHANGES TO REFLECT RAPID /YET TEMPORARY/ DISSIPATION IN
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING WAVE WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING BUT DUE TO DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR...ACTUAL SPRINKLES-SHOWERS WILL BE MORE OF A
CHALLENGE. THAT IS...UNTIL LOW LEVEL JET ASSISTS WITH A MOISTURE
INFLUX AND A SMALL BIT INSTABILITY FROM 06Z WEST TO 12Z ALONG I-81
CORRIDOR AS ALREADY MENTIONED BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR STILL SHOWS SCT SHRA/SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF
ERN NY TO INCLUDE AREAS E OF I-81 IN C NY...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
NYS THRUWAY W OF SYR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AIR AT ARND 850 MB THAT WAS LEADING TO
SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE AND CONVECTIVE SHRA OR SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WITH
THE AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE ABOVE AREAS. FARTHER WEST...850 MB
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WITH ENUF SFC HEATING TO MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR
FROM ABV INTO THE MOIST BNDRY LAYER. THIS WAS BREAKING UP CLOUDS
AND ENDING THE LIGHT PRECIP. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SUBSDC AND MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
SHRA/SPRINKLE ACVTY TO THE E AND WE EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES. HAVE CHC SHRA OR
SPRINKLES TAPERING OFF IN OUR NRN AND ERN FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.

NEXT SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING SHRA WITH ISLD TSRA MOVING ACRS OHIO.
ALL HI RES MODELS AND SYNOPTIC MODELS ALIKE SHOW THAT C NY AND NE
PA COME UNDER AN INCREASING SWRLY FLOW AT ARND 850 MB THIS EVE WHICH
SUPPORTS DECENT THETA-E ADVTN. THIS OCCURS WITHOUT MUCH
TEMPERATURE CHANGE AT MID-LEVELS LEADING TO NET DESTABILIZATION.
HENCE SHRA WILL BREAK OUT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS LLJ FEATURE.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE PRECIP REACHES OUR
FAR WRN ZONES (THE WRN FINGER LAKES) BY 06Z AND TO JUST E OF I-81
BY 12Z. SO HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT FROM W TO E.
ADDED THUNDER WHERE SHOWALTER INDICES CREEP ABV ZERO LATE TONIGHT
MAINLY IN WRN NY AND NC PA. IF ANY THUNDER OCCURS IT WILL BE
INSIGNIFICANT.

FOR TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF WORKS E INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH BROAD SCALE LIFTING OCCURING ABOVE CONTINUED LL THETA-E ADVTN
AND INSOLATION. AS A RESULT GFS...NAM AND EURO ALL INDICATE
MODERATE AMNTS OF CAPE FOR OUR AREA (~ 1000 J/KG) DEVELOPS ABY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS E. THE 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR
WAS ABT 15-20 KNOTS AS A MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE 0-3 KM ARND 25
KNOTS AND THE 0-6 KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO. LOCAL
SVR CHECKLIST RETURNS SCT SEVERE WEATHER...MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. NO MAJOR EVENTS...SO WE ALL CONCUR WITH A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TUESDAY. WILL CONT TO MENTION IN HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND STRG PV ADVTN
CROSSES THE REGION ABOVE A CONTINUED MOIST LL SWRLY FLOW. THE LL
DEWPOINTS REMAIN THE SAME AS WE COOL ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
AN ACCELERATION OF THE SWRLY LLJ AFTER SUNSET TUE NGT AS THE MID-
LEVELS COOL. HENCE WE REMAIN UNSTBL THRU TUE NGT. TIMING IS
DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE SO CONT CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA
TUESDAY NIGHT. FORTUNATELY PWATS ARE MUCH LOWER RUNNING ARND 1.25
INCHES AS THERE IS MORE DRY AIR ALOFT SO WE SHUD BE ABLE TO ESCAPE
ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD POTENTIAL.

FOR WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TRIGGERING MORE SHRA AND
TSRA. THIS ACVTY LINGERS INTO WED NGT. THURSDAY THE FRNT PUSHS
SOUTH AND SHRA AND TSRA CUD LINGER AS MODEL VARY ON TIMING OF
FRNT AND HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
ALONG THIS FRONT. FOR NOW JUST TWEAKED PREV FORECAST AND
COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD, IN GENERAL FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. AT THE UPPER
LEVELS A BROAD/WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC MAY BRING
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO NE PA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FA
REMAINS DRY. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SFC LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BRING THE AREA CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. OVERALL A CONTINUATION OF A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR LATE
JUNE/EARLY JULY. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS MOVING EAST AND ERODING AT RME/SYR WHILE A MID DECK
APPROACHES FROM THE SW. SHOWERS WITH THIS SHOULD DIE BEFORE
GETTING TO TAF SITES. AVP HAS THE BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWER THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS IN ERN OHIO AND WRN PA WILL HOLD TOGETHER GETTING
TO ELM/AVP/ITH/BGM AROUND 11Z. THEN TO SYR/RME 13Z. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. AT TIMES BGM/ITH/ELM MIGHT FALL TO MVFR LATE
MORNING.

NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS NOW QUICKLY DROPPING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY 02Z. E TO SE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AT 3 TO 6 KTS BECOMING
SOUTH TO SW AT 10 KTS FRIDAY. SOME AFTN GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

THU...MAINLY VFR.

FRI THROUGH SATURDAY...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...TAC


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