Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 221038
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
638 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The dry and warm weather will continue into Monday, under a
large area of high pressure. A cold front will approach the
area Tuesday bringing rain, and cooler conditions for much of
the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level ridge axis will move east of NY and PA by this
afternoon and evening as a complex storm system moves east into
the midwest and upper plains. The low-level pressure gradient
increases and hence the low-level southerly flow increases. The
low-levels will remain dry today into most of tonight. There
was patchy cirrus that will override the upper level ridge axis
during the day and overnight. Otherwise, another unseasonably
mild day for late October with highs into the 70s.

For tonight south winds increases above the surface layer and
are projected to advect a low-level marine layer north which
should reach the Poconos/Catskills between 09z and 12z Mon. The
GOES-16 nighttime microphysics channel difference imagery does
show low clouds east of NC over the open ocean and low- level
trajectories bring this moisture north reaching our counties
late tonight. With upsloping, this moisture will saturate into a
stratus layer. Our confidence in this is fairly high and the
RGEM, NAM, GFS and Euro all agree on this scenario too. So we
have increased cloud cover in our grids in these areas between
09z- 12z Monday and added patchy to areas of fog also.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
420 am update... A potentially active period is in store, as a
deep upper-level trough and slow moving surface front impact the
region.

For Monday, areas of stratus clouds and higher elevation fog
are expected to start the day off across at least the Pocono
plateau and the Catskills, with a strengthening marine layer SE
flow in place. As the day wears on, although most of the fog
should lift, a few isolated showers or patches of drizzle may
develop in the presence of continued moist low-level conditions,
but weak forced lift.

Although clouds should have the upper hand Monday, a few breaks
of sunshine could occur up over the Finger Lakes and Lake
Ontario plain regions, giving these areas the best chance to
see highs reach the mid 70s.

Monday night and Tuesday, the aforementioned deep trough and
well defined surface front should slowly approach CNY and NEPA
from the west. As forced ascent becomes more vigorous, showers
should increase in coverage, especially on Tuesday. Good model
agreement is there, with regards to the development of a strong
low-level jet and northward surge of deep moisture into the
region, just ahead of the cold front. As a result, strong gusty
winds are foreseen, especially over the higher terrain, along
with at least a brief period of heavy showers. Model sounding
progs indicate the potential for gusts of 45-55 mph. Since
we`ve been so dry lately, hydro problems would only have the
potential to occur on a localized basis on smaller tributaries,
or in highly urbanized areas, if the heavy rain falls in a short
enough period of time.

Also, a few thunderstorms are possible, with some solutions
showing 200-500 j/kg of CAPE over mainly our eastern zones
(along and east of the I-81 corridor). Given the presence of a
strongly sheared environment, any storms could contain very
strong wind gusts.

Potential wind and rainfall hazards have been highlighted in our
hazardous weather outlook and on our web page. Stay tuned for
future updates over the next couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
440 am update... In the big picture, the main story will be the
presence of a deep eastern CONUS upper trough for most of next
week, something we have not seen for quite some time.
Consequently, cooler, more seasonable temperatures are
anticipated, with daily highs mostly in the 50s-lower 60s.

The proximity of the aforementioned trough should also lead to
at least scattered showers on many days. The best chance for a
brief break (mostly rain-free conditions), may come on Friday or
early Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the most of the TAF period
as our NY and PA terminals see scattered to occasionally broken
cirrus clouds between 20 and 30 thousand feet. There will be no
visibility restrictions through 06z Monday. Between 09z and 12z
Monday a marine layer will sneak north and bring MVFR-IFR
ceilings and vsibilities to KAVP and MVFR ceilings to KBGM.

Winds will be light southeasterly this morning and increase to
around 10 knots or so by this afternoon and continue into the
night. KITH will see stronger south winds due to the promixty of
Cayuga Lake. In addition, strong winds aloft will lead LLWS at
KSYR and KELM after 3-5Z.

Outlook...

Monday...IFR-MVFR cigs possible early Monday due to low
cigs/vsbys from marine layer heading north affecting mainly KAVP
and possibly KELM and KBGM/KITH.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJN



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