Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 121735
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
135 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING ANOTHER NICE
DAY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1220 PM UPDATE...LOCAL RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED PULSE CONVECTION
OVER NE PA AND SRN CATSKILLS. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC ACROSS FA
THIS AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

1030 AM UPDATE...12Z BUF RAOB AND LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB WHICH WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON JUST
MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS OTHERWISE ALL GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISC...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY. MDL
PROFILES DISPLAY ALOT OF VARIABILITY THIS AFTN W/RESPECT TO POTNL
FOR AFTN CONVECTION. 00Z BUF PROFILE SHOWS A GOOD CAP AT 700 MB
WHICH WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT ACTIVITY. LOW LVL MSTR APPEARS
OVERDONE IN THE NAM...WHILE THE RUC MAY BE DISPLAYING A DRY BIAS
W/RESPECT TO LOW LVL TD/S. GFS PROFILES APPEAR TO BE MOST
REASONABLE AND SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE ENUF TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
THIS AFTN. IN ADDN...FCST K`S ARE GNRLY IN THE U20S THIS AFTN.
WHILE A STRAY SHRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT LATE TDA...WE`VE OPTED TO
LOWER POPS TO BLO SLGT CHC. BETTER CHCS FOR CONVECTION WILL COME
TWDS DAYBREAK AS LEADING S/WV AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING GTLAKES UPR
LOW APRCHS THE RGN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
XPCT SHRA/TSRA TO OVERSPREAD THE RGN SUN MRNG...THEN WORK THRU
DURING THE DAY. CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500-1000 RNG...WITH RATHER
IMPRSV WIND FIELDS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A LOW END SVR THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE RGN. AFTER THIS 1ST WAVE WORKS THRU...SOME DIFFS DVLP
IN THE GUIDANCE W/RESPECT TO TIMING AND DVLPMT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPR TROF  AXIS. XPCT ANOTHER PUSH OF MSTR NWD AS NXT WAVE APRCHS. WE
KEPT HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PDS. THE FINGER LAKES...WRN
MOHAWK VLY AND SRN TUG COULD SEE A MAINLY DRY DAY ON MON BEFORE
THE NXT WAVES MOVS IN...SO ONLY INDICATE CHC POPS THERE WITH
HIGHER POPS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ENDING EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THAT THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CUT OFF LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO, THAT WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER COOL. HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S,
WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S (WITH 40S POSSIBLE IN OUR NORMALLY
COLDER SPOTS). BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW. WE
HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH, AND YET AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS SOME MOISTURE MOVES UP THE COAST. BOTH
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A SCT TO
AT TIMES BKN DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE
WAY TO JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL MAINLY BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KAVP WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND BUT TOO
LIMITED IN DURATION OR COVERAGE TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS.

FOG DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TONIGHT AT KELM DUE TO STRONG WINDS OFF
THE SURFACE. ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A TROF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 14Z AND 18Z. INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP FOR THUNDER IN OUR MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR STORMS, WHICH WILL
BE ACROSS CENTRAL NY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.

WED/THUR...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN





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