Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 292353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
753 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

High pressure will build over the region tonight bringing
another quiet and dry day to the area Thursday. The nest storm
system to impact the area will start to move into the region
Thursday evening and will linger through Saturday night. This
will be mainly rain but could start and end with snow, sleet,
and freezing rain.


730 pm update...
Minor changes to the forecast. Low clouds continue across the
northeast half of the cwa. These should dissipate this evening.
With only high clouds and winds becoming light, temperatures
will fall into the 20s.

310 PM EDT Update...
NW flow aloft will prevail over the region today and dry air
will continue to drain into the region. A diurnal cu field has
developed under the inversion, however with time the inversion
will continue to break apart eventually the cu field will
dissipate. Cirrus clouds will start to move into the region from
the NW as WAA take place aloft ahead of the next storm system.
NW sfc winds will continue to be breezy this afternoon ranging
from 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH.

High pressure at the sfc will build into the region from the
north tonight along with anti-cyclonic flow aloft and force
the winds to become light and variable. Temps tonight will range
in the low to mid 20s.

Thursday morning the area of high pressure will start to move to
the  east and WAA at mid-lvl will start to take place thus,
cloud coverage will start to increase from west to east by late
morning. WAA will continue throughout the day and temps will
rise into the uppr 40s to low 50s on Thurs. The next storm
system will start to approach the region Thursday evening and
bring the chance for rain. Chances for precip increase
dramatically after 00Z Fri.


Main concerns in the short term are focused around the impacts
from  a large area of low pressure expected to pass from the
Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic region and track off the
East Coast Thur night through Saturday. This system will be
complex with mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain
possible. The area most likely to see the wintry mix will be
mainly east of I-81 into the Poconos and the Catskills. There
will also be the potential for locally heavy rain, producing
minor flooding issues as well.

By Thursday evening/night the upper low will be cutoff from the
flow  near St. Louis and the surface low will be just to the
east with a warm front extending into the srn Great Lakes near
wrn PA. There should be a fairly strong baroclinic zone
associated with the warm front with strong WAA from the south
and a cold Canadian air mass to the north. The frontal zone will
be the focus of precipitation as the system translates to the
east. One major factor that will impact the thermal profiles and
play a key role in determining precipitation type will be a
large area of high pressure over ern Canada and the cold air
that will spill southward into central NY and portions of ne PA
Friday and Saturday.

The bulk of the heavy precipitation will be Friday morning
through  Friday afternoon where 1 to 1.5 inches of precip could
fall. The threat for a wintry mix of rain/snow/sleet/freezing
rain is possible mainly east of I-81 where the cold air in the
low levels from the e/ne will settle in and modify profiles
enough to change the rain to a wintry mix. Areas to the west
should remain under the influence of warmer air and keep the
precip all in the form of rain. May see 2-4 inches of snow/sleet
in the higher elevations of Oneida to Delaware counties Friday
morning. Most of the precip across the region Friday afternoon
will change to rain with the highest accumulation occurring
during this period. However the cold air mass will make another
surge back into the Catskills Friday night/Sat morning and
change the rain back to a sleet/snow/rain/fz rain mix. The
precip rates should really taper off early Saturday and through
the day as the system exits to the east and the drier air
filters in behind the system.

With the potential for heavy rain with this system the threat of
flooding returns once again. The impacts from potential flooding
may once again be mitigated by the lack of a real warm
up...temps remaining in the 30s and 40s. However...check the
Hydro discussion below for additional information.

Temperatures Friday morning will be the 30s...with a
warm up only into the lower 40s west of I-81 and remaining in
the 30s the east. Temps drop back down into the 30s Fri night
and begin a slow warm up into the lower to mid 40s Sat


Will likely see periods of rain showers Sat evening and a change
or  mix with light snow/flurries going into Saturday
night/Sunday morning. Only light amounts expected during this
period. Should see a brief dry period Sunday into early Monday
with weak high pressure building across the region. There are
some notable differences among deterministic model guidance
regarding the next system expected early next week with the
latest GFS giving a more northerly track and the ECMWF keeping
the low further to the south. Thermal profiles look to be warm
enough for all rain at this point...and will keep with a slow
increase in rain potential from late Monday through Tuesday.
There is some indication of a potential for heavy rain once
again, so will need to keep a close eye on how this system
evolves over the next several days. Temperatures will remain
fairly seasonal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and
lower 40s.


730 pm update...

4 to 5k ft cigs continue at all but elm/avp. These should last
until 03z. After that high clouds into midday Thursday. Mid
clouds at 10k ft come in from the wsw during the afternoon.

Surface winds still gusting but that should end by 01z. Winds
will be 4 to 8 kts from the north tonight. Thursday winds
shifting to east to southeast at 5 to 10 kts in NY and southwest
at AVP.


Thursday night through Saturday...Restrictions likely in
showers, especially Thursday night through Friday night. Snow
may be mixed in at times for KRME.

Saturday night through Monday...Primarily VFR.


350 PM EDT Wednesday UPDATE...
A renewed threat for minor flooding returns this weekend as low
pressure moves from the Southern Plains to the eastern
seaboard. The system currently appears strong enough to generate
widespread QPF in excess of one inch by Saturday morning. The
main problem with this situation is the forecast of marginal
boundary layer temperatures. We should see a portion of the
precipitation fall as snow, sleet or freezing rain at the onset,
followed by several hours of rain, then a wintry mix again at
the conclusion of the event. This definitely hampers the
prediction of runoff and accurate flow/stage forecasts.

The current best estimate suggests that temperatures will be
marginally cold, and although we may see differing precipitation
types, not a lot of this new precipitation will be locked up.
Another factor contributing to the confusion is how the remaining
snow cover deep in the woods and hills of the Susquehanna and
Upper Delaware headwaters will behave. Colder than usual temperatures
in the 30s to low 40s may not do much to melt the snow, however,
fairly warm rain falling into the ripe snow pack could do some
damage and exacerbate additional runoff.

Bottom line is that river rises will kick in again, and the
most plausible river simulations do suggest parts of the
Susquehanna and Delaware rivers could exceed their posted minor
flood stages by a little bit. Current confidence is very low,
and our best river forecasts are probably not going to happen
until the precipitation is on the ground. We will evaluate the
need for another Flood Watch tomorrow.




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