Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 221049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
649 AM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

A cold front will push through the area this afternoon and
evening triggering strong thunderstorms. A significant severe
weather event is likely with this activity with the primary
threat damaging winds. Pleasant weather will return on Wednesday
with clearing skies and lower humidities.


Conditions this afternoon and evening look favorable for a
significant severe weather event across the area. A deepening
low pressure system over Lake Superior will track northeast
into southern Quebec with its trailing cold front crossing the
area during the mid afternoon through early evening period. The
environment over the region will be favorable for the
development of severe thunderstorms. Deep layer shear values
range from 40-50 knots, 700mb flow is around 50 knots, low,
level helicity is very significant and event is strongly forced
by surface cold front/pre frontal trough. The surface based CAPE
on the NAM ranges from 1500-2500 J/KG although the GFS is
lower. The only lacking ingredient is steep mid level lapse
rates but this will likely be overcome by the strong forcing.
Due to strong mid level flow the primary threat will be damaging
winds although if the NAM CAPE is realized large hail is also
possible. The significant low level helicity is also an
indication of tornado threat. Atmosphere ahead of this boundary
will be very juicy with PWATs close to 2 inches, so any
thunderstorms will contain heavy downpours. The severe weather
threat will end across the region during the mid evening hours.

High temperatures will range in the lower to middle 80s and with
dewpoints near 70 it will feel rather muggy.

Wednesday will be much cooler and dry with lower humidities
under brisk northwest flow. Highs will range in the lower to
middle 70s.


430 AM Update...
Sharp upper trough will pivot from upper Midwest through Great
Lakes and Northeast, with mainly dry weather and cool

Cooling air aloft combined with diurnal heating could produce a
few widely scattered showers Thursday, but moisture will be
quite limited. Generally speaking, northwest flow will exist in
the low levels with persistent cold air advection and a taste of
Fall. Lower to mid 50s are expected for lows Wednesday night.
Then after highs of upper 60s-mid 70s Thursday, lows of upper
40s-lower 50s are figured by dawn Friday.


320 PM EDT Update...
Updated with new WPC guidance...
Minor changes were made from previous forecast...
Anti-cyclonic flow over the northeast combined with amplified
ridging over the western CONUS will result in quiet weather for
the extended forecast. High pressure is expected to prevail over
the region Friday and possibly linger through the weekend which
will result in below seasonal temperatures. This pattern may
prevail through the start of early next week.


Dense fog will lift at KELM around 13Z. Otherwise VFR conditions
will persist until the afternoon. A strong cold front will
cross the region during the mid afternoon and early evening
hours. Strong thunderstorms are likely along this boundary with
severe thunderstorms a possibility. Included a four hour TEMPO
group indicating this convection at all TAF sites which will
generally occur between 19Z-24Z. Following this boundary
widespread MVFR conditions will persist until late tonight when
drier air works into the terminals.

Winds becoming southwest this morning and increasing to 10-15
knots with gusts 15-25 knots. Overnight winds becoming westerly
around 10 knots.


Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.




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