Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 281432
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1032 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region today
ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of these showers may
produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. High pressure will start
to build back into the region on Monday resulting in dry weather
through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM Update...
Forecast on track. Scattered thunderstorm development should
still occur later this afternoon, trending into the evening. Main
area still focusing across the northern and middle part of our
central NY counties before things diminish with nocturnal
cooling. SPC continues MRGL risk severe outlook, but true severe
weather parameters are disjointed with deep shear well to our
north. Cold pool processes attributed to moderate buoyant
environment is about all that`s favorable around here...maybe for
some high winds. Torrential rain rates in this high PWAT
environment seem like more of a possible problem today. WPC
includes area within marginal excessive rain outlook... and we
give that a thumbs up.


300 AM EDT Update...
The main concern for today is the approaching cold front and
thunderstorm activity this afternoon. SPC currently has portions of
the CWA in a marginal risk. Mid lvl dynamics for this afternoon are
not very impressive, 0-6km bulk shear will range from 20-30 knots
with the best shear over northern NY. Low lvl lapse rates are
forecast to be around 7-9 C/km (still seems questionable), and mid-
lvl lapse rates seem to be around 5-6 C/km. CAPE values this
afternoon should reach around 1000 J/KG. These values stated above
are not very impressive. Expect thunderstorms to develop this
afternoon with a few gusty winds. A widespread severe event is not
expected.

What is impressive in the PWAT values this afternoon and evening.
PWAT values will be roughly 1.8 inches over the Finger Lakes region
and towards the Southern Tug Hill Plateau. Values decrease towards
the south and east. This value is roughly 2 standard deviations
above normal. This will aid to heavy downpours with thunderstorms
this afternoon. This is a slight concern for today.

Activity is expected to dissipate near midnight as drier air starts
to funnel into the region post frontal.

Temperatures will feel slightly muggy today as dew point values rise
through the afternoon and remain in the upper 60s to low 70s. Temps
are expected to rise into the mid to upper 80s today with Heat Index
values near or above 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
300AM EDT Update...
Monday will be mostly dry but slightly windy as we will be
between 2 systems, a ridge building in from the west, and the low
pressure system moving off to the NE. NW winds will prevail around
5 to 15 MPH with a few gusts around 20 MPH. Temps across the
region will be slightly cooler than previous days as the cold
front brings cooler air over the region. Temps will range in the
uppr 70s to low 80s. Tuesday morning may have a chilly start as
high pressure moves over the region along with mostly clear skies.
Temps are expected to range in the low to mid 50s. High pressure
will continue to control the weather on Tuesday. Temps will range
in the uppr 70s to low 80s with light and variable winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
4 am Sunday update...Fairly high confidence this period, as medium
range guidance remains reasonably consistent, and in good
agreement overall.

On the large-scale, a western North American upper trough, central
CONUS ridge, and eastern Canadian/northeastern U.S. trough pattern
continues to be advertised. The eastern trough tends to lift out
/de-amplify late in the period, as the upstream ridge expands
eastward. In general, this signals dry weather much of the period
for central NY/northeast PA. Seasonal warmth to start on
Wednesday, should be replaced by a much cooler air mass Thursday-
Saturday, followed by a rebound in temperatures/humidity levels
again thereafter.

Daily sensible weather-wise, a fairly strong cold frontal passage
on Wednesday, driven along by the above mentioned upper trough,
will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. An extended
stretch of rain-free weather is then expected Thursday-Saturday,
and likely beyond, as sprawling surface high pressure moves from
south-central Canada across the northeastern states. Once again,
readings are expected to be much cooler later in the week, with
highs only in the mid 60s-mid 70s into next weekend. As mentioned
earlier, it should warm up again starting Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Other than perhaps some light fog early this morning at KELM,
VFR/unrestricted conditions should be prevalent much of the valid
TAF period (through 12z Monday).

Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are still anticipated late in
the day and early this evening over central NY. At this point,
we`ve retained Prob30 groups at KELM, KSYR, KRME, KITH, and KBGM
for thunder/brief MVFR restrictions from about 21z to 00z.

Also, there is some possibility of low cloudiness behind a weak
cold front after about 06z Monday. The highest confidence is at
KITH, where restrictions are indicated. At this early juncture,
just a scattered lower cloud layer is shown elsewhere.

Surface winds will become S-SW at 8-12 kt, with some gusts of
20-25 kt this afternoon, especially KSYR, KITH, and KBGM. Winds
will switch to NW late tonight.

OUTLOOK...
Monday-Tuesday night...Other than early morning fog at KELM,
mostly VFR is expected.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Brief restrictions from
showers/storms are possible, but mainly VFR.

Thursday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...JAB/KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ



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