Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 031056
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING AND BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. FOG IS SLIGHTLY MORE
DENSE THAN EXPECTED AND SHOULD LIFT ROUGHLY AROUND 14Z-15Z.

A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC THIS
MORNING... AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THIS
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS ALMOST ALL SFC BASED... AS IN
MINIMAL SUPPORT ALOFT. PLENTY OF SB INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THIS
COMBINATION MAY RESULT IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEAR
SUNSET. ATTM... THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND
CROSS THE NY BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE PA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THEE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET. BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NEPA AS THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LINGERING
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY... THE RIDGE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. ONLY MADE SOME
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


3 PM WEDNESDAY UPDATE... QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, AS A LARGE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE AND DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
PREVAIL. THE END RESULT WILL BE RAIN-FREE WEATHER MUCH OF THE
TIME, AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEARS TO
BE LATER TUESDAY, WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT AND NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WITH THIS BEING MOST SIGNIFICANT AT KELM...AS IS TYPICAL.
AT KELM, EXPECT PREVAILING CONDITIONS BELOW AIRPORT MINS UNTIL
AROUND 1230Z WITH IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING FROM THIS TIME THROUGH
14Z. KSYR/KBGM/KITH WILL SEE IFR VISBYS AT TIMES THROUGH AROUND
MID MORNING WITH FOG LIFTING AROUND THE 13-14Z TIME FRAME. FOR
KRME, SCT TO BKN LOW STRATUS MAY BRING IFR CIGS AT TIMES UNTIL
AROUND 14Z. FINALLY FOR KAVP, JUST EXPECT MIST TO BRING MVFR
VISBYS AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SPARSE COVERAGE
PRECLUDES ITS MENTION IN THE FORECAST AS THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE AT BEST 30 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN SITE.

FOR TONIGHT, ANY STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MORE MIST/FOG
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THERE WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS SINCE THE
FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
VISBYS LIKELY GOING DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR FOR KITH/KELM/KBGM WITH
MVFR FOR KAVP.

EXPECT LIGHT W/NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR TODAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...MLJ/PCF
AVIATION...PCF



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