Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 252352
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
752 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move slowly across the region tonight with
cool temperatures and areas of frost over portions of central New
York. The next cold front will sweep west to east through the
region Monday night with a round of showers. Conditions will
remain active with mild temperatures and mostly cloudy skies
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
800 PM EDT Update...
Decreased min temps for tonight as temps across the cwa are
expected to quickly drop after sunset as canadian high pressure
still controls the weather. Decided to extend the frost advisory
for tonight as frost development still looks good. Chemung and
Schuyler county may have some areas of frost, however coverage is
not expected to be widespread, thus decided to keep out of
advisory. But caution should be taken in the two counties
mentioned above. Overall the forecast is in great shape. Cirrus
clouds are moving in from the west. Do not expect these clouds to
impact min temps for tonight. Expect a gradual increase in cloud
coverage at lower levels tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next
storm system. For more information please read the previous
forecast discussion below.


Previous Forecast Discussion...
Main concern in the near term remain focused around the potential
for areas of frost across the Catskills...Tug Hill Plateau...and
portions of the Mohawk Valley. A Frost Advisory has been issued
for these areas from 2 to 8 am.

Area of high pressure at the surface combined with rising heights
aloft and large scale suppression keeping skies mostly sunny
today...and will allow the mostly clear skies to persist through
most of tonight. The next cold front...currently moving into the
wrn Great Lakes will track ewd tonight into the central GL and
Ohio Valley region. Mid and high level clouds will stream in from
the west ahead of the system this evening and tonight. There will
also be a strong area of WAA across the ern Ohio Valley tonight
between the departing high and the incoming upper trough. The
combination of WAA and additional cloud cover over wrn NY will
keep temperatures in the lower to mid 40s. However...areas to the
east will remain under the influence of the high pressure and
mostly clear skies most of the night. Winds will also be light or
near calm as well...allowing temperatures to fall into the mid 30s
in the Catskills north to the Tug Hill Plateau and the southern
Adirondacks.

Most of the day Monday will be quiet weather-wise with increasing
cloud cover, slightly warmer temperatures and gusty sw winds. High
pressure over nrn New England and a strengthening low over the
Grt Lakes will induce a tight sfc pres gradient across the region
and produce sustained winds 20 to 25 mph and gusts up to 30 mph in
the afternoon.

Rain showers are expected to move into the wrn counties late
Monday afternoon and continue through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will move through the area with a brief period of
steadier rain expected.  While the entire area should see rainfall,
QPF amounts are still expected to generally be under a quarter of an
inch.  As the overnight forecaster pointed out to me, instability
with this front and the timing do not support a great chance for
thunder.  With Showalter values still near zero or slightly negative
I didn`t want to totally remove it.  Instead I opted to lower
thunder chances from chance (30%) to slight chance (under 20%).

Behind the front our area gets into a massive dry slot with the
front well to our east Tuesday, and the main upper low north of Lake
Superior. A southwest flow of chilly air will support lake rains
over far western and northern NY.  Maintained a slight chance for a
shower in extreme northern Oneida county Tuesday afternoon but even
here it appears the flow will be too southwest to bring us showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main forecast concern will be the evolution of the cut off upper
level low mentioned above.  Previous runs of the GFS took this
system south and eventually to our east, keeping impacts to our area
limited with drying expected by Friday and Saturday. The EURO has
hinted the past few runs that this low would cause us more headaches
and could keep us unsettled into next weekend!  The new 12Z GFS is
in and the trend toward a more unsettled solution continues.  IT
appears as the upper low drops south by Wednesday, rain chances will
still mainly be to our south and west, closer to the low itself.
However by Thursday and beyond as the low drifts to our south, the
southerly flow of air around it will slowly drag moisture northward
into our area.  The latest SUPERBLEND is a decent depiction showing
at least chance pops for rain through Saturday, versus our dry
forecast from before.  If this trend continues however chances for
rain will likely need to be increased.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
High pressure will slowly drift to the east Monday afternoon,
resulting in an increase of cloud coverage across the region
along with gusty southerly winds. Winds will range from 8 to 14
knots with occasional gusts up to 25 knots.

OUTLOOK...

Monday afternoon...Mainly VFR.

Monday Night-Early Tuesday...A period of restrictions likely as a
frontal system moves through with showers.

Tuesday afternoon-Friday...Restrictions possible with SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ009-037-046-
     057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/KAH
SHORT TERM...Heden
LONG TERM...Heden
AVIATION...KAH



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