Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 301044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS SAME
SYSTEM WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEENED AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COMPLEX AND SLOW MVG SYSTEM WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF CST
WILL BEGIN THE AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. APRCHG SFC BNDRY DROPPING
THRU THE LAKES WILL PROVIDE LL CONV AND BE THE FOCUS OF THE PCPN
TODAY. STRENGTHENING UPR LVL JET WILL PROVIDE DIVERGENT FLOW AND
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE...RAIN WILL BRK OUT DURING THE DAY. WITH
THE FNT PARALLEL WITH THE UPR FLOW...PSN OF THE FNT DFCLT TO FCST
AND KEY TO THE RAIN AND TSTMS EARLY ON. FOR NOW...BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ACROSS THE WRN ZONES TODAY...ALTHOUGH RIPPLE PASSING THRU IN
THE FLOW PRBLY BRING AT LEAST A PD OF RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE AREA.

WITH PWATS BETTER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND LTL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN FLOW...CONCRN FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN TRAINING CELLS CONTS TODAY. AS USUAL...NAM HAS
CNSRBLY MORE CAPE THAN OTR MODELS AND LIKELY OVERDOING AMTS BY AT
LEAST DOUBLE. SPS CONTS THE MRGNL SVR FCST AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF HTG...AND LTL SHEAR WITHIN THE
PROFILE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WET FCST CONTS WITH POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MDOELS ON TIMING AND PSN
OF KEY FEATURES...LEADING LOW CONFIDENCE OF THE DETAILS. FOR
STARTERS...TEMP FCST TRICKY AS THE FNT COULD LIKELY BE DRAPED THRU
THE FCST AREA FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE PD LDG TO A 10 - 15 DEGREE
OR BETTER DFRNC IN TEMPS.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FNT PASSES THRU MUCH OF THE AREA LAT SAT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT THEN A SIGNIFICANT WV APRCHG STALLS THE FNT AND
MAY EVEN LIFT IT BACK NWRD LTR SUN AND EARLY MON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA INTO MON.

HAVE DECIDED THAT THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET WILL BE TO BE LESS
SPECIFIC WITH THE POPS AND GO WITH A MORE GNRL LIKELY POP WITH
INCRSD CHANCE OF CONV IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...NEARER THE MOST
LIKELY PSN OF THE FNT.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN MODEL TEMP GUID BUT WITH A BASIC AGREEMENT
IN THE OVERALL PTRN....HIGHER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
230 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BIG-PICTURE IDEAS REMAIN AT PLAY FOR
THE EXTENDED PTN OF THE FCST AS IN PREV MODEL CYCLES.

A LINGERING UPR-LVL TROUGH INTO THE NERN CONUS...AND NEARLY
STATIONARY FRNTL ZN JUST S OF THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE OF SHWRS MON NGT...AND QUT PSBLY INTO TUE.

THEREAFTER...FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD...UPR-LVL HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AS THE NEXT L/W TROUGH AXIS
DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY WX IS
FORESEEN WED-THU...WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX FORECAST IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
AND SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LOCATED OVER NE PA AS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LOW LVL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. BELIEVE THEY WILL DEVELOP SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE DAY
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... AFTER 18Z. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE
POSSIBLE THRU THE MORNING BUT DO NOT EXPECT RESTRICTIONS.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE MVFR VISBYS WITH VFR CIGS. EXPECT
THE MENTIONED ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AROUND 03Z THEN A SECOND MORE
ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT. TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD BUT
ONLY PUT IN TAF WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS THE GREATEST... THUS TAFS MAY
NEED TO BE AMD. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR
TO IFR WITH THE FROPA. QUESTIONS STILL EXIST WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA.

WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 KNOTS AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FROPA LATE TONIGHT... WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...THERE`S GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIVE CONDS TO
PERSIST...AS SHWRS LIKELY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY.

TUE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS STILL PSBL...SPCLY KBGM/KAVP. SOME
IMPROVEMENT COULD OCCUR BY AFTN.

WED...VFR LIKELY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH


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