Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 270013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
813 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

After a quiet evening, a low pressure system will move from the
Ohio valley to the Great Lakes late Tonight through Thursday. This
will bring a period of wintry mix, changing to rain. The weather
pattern will remain unsettled with fluctuating temperatures
through the weekend.


815 PM update...
The first batch of precipitation is sliding through western NY and
PA this evening. Precipitation, which will begin as a mix of rain
and snow in most locations, will arrive in our southwestern
forecast area between 10 PM and midnight.

Based on the low dew points, it is expected temperatures will
rapidly contract as precipitation arrives.

220 PM EDT Update...
Lake effect showers have winded down and now we have some LE
clouds lingering. With time, these clouds are expected to slowly
break apart and weaken. It finally feels as if fall has arrived.
Temps continue to hold in the 30s and 40s across the region.
Adjusted temps down a couple degrees as cloud coverage is holding
on a little more than expected. Temps may rise a couple more
degrees but for the most part we have reached our max temps for
the day.

Temps overnight will fall into the uppr 20s to low 30s.

Tonight our first mixed precip event of the year will move into
the region after midnight bringing a mix of rain/snow and sleet.
Precip will move into the area after midnight and pushing again
I-81 around sunrise, then into the higher terrain by mid-morning.
Warm air will quickly be drawn into the system, thus the chance
for a frozen precip to fall will be limited, thus do not expect
any hazards from this event.

Higher elevations and locations I-81 east have the best chance to
see the most snow over the area. A trace to one inch is expected
attm over much of the region, and a few areas could see two,
mainly in the higher elevations. This amount may change. Will
provide an update on forecast amount around 3-4PM this afternoon.

All frozen precip is expected to to transition into rain by early
afternoon and expect rain showers to prevail for the remainder of
the day.


330 PM Update...
Surface low will shift towards New England Thursday night, though
vigorous upper wave will still be swinging through the region. Dry
slot will cause moisture to become quite shallow for most of the
area, so departing rain Thursday evening will trend to light
scattered showers late Thursday night-Friday morning, with some
lake enhancement in Central New York. Higher elevations could also
see some snowflakes mixed in early Friday, top-down method for
determining precip type suggests that the cool air and moisture
layer will be shallow to the point that it will be a challenge to
have any ice crystals, so accumulation not expected.

There will be decent pressure gradient between departing low
pressure and Ohio Valley high pressure. Lowest 4 kft agl will be
unstable enough to mix down 15-25 mph gusts out of the northwest
Friday. With highs in the 40s, the brisk wind will definitely
remind us that October is soon coming to an end.


330 PM Update...
Frequency of systems will back off a bit in the long term period,
though temperatures will still fluctuate.

Surface ridge Friday evening will quickly collapse in favor of
another small low pressure system which will brush through
Saturday. This northern stream low will track from Lake Superior
Friday night, across Ontario to southern Quebec on Saturday.
Models are in better agreement now on sending its trailing cold
front decidedly through our region Saturday. Upper support and
moisture availability will be better closer to the low itself, and
thus best shower coverage will occur in Central New York. That
being said, with the front passing through the whole area,
everyone including Northeast PA will see at least a chance of
showers. Warm air advection ahead of the cold front, will allow
temperatures to actually go up late Friday night, preventing other
precipitation types besides rain as the system moves in Saturday
morning. Then during the day Saturday, temperatures will reach
mid 50s to near 60 before the cold front passes.

Models are also in better agreement now on secondary wave along
the front sunday being mainly south of the area, so I have
followed the model superblend trend of only low chances for rain
showers; and what little I have for that, mainly south of the
Twin Tiers.

Pattern remains on the progressive side this coming week, though
with modest height rises, and with low tracks further north in
Canada. Temperatures will trend from slightly below climatology
Sunday-Monday, to near normal Midweek. Sometime around Wednesday,
a weak front may pass through but with little moisture and thus
very iffy on rain chances.


VFR conditions this evening, will deteriorate later tonight, as a
wintry mix of precipitation develops across the region.
Restrictions will remain widespread Thursday, owing to lower
ceilings and rain.

We expect mostly snow at the onset at KSYR, KRME, KITH, KELM, and
KBGM, with a quick reduction to IFR. This should first set in from
about 06-09z. After a 2-4 hour period of snow or wintry mix,
precipitation should change to all rain. KBGM will likely have the
longest duration of wintry precipitation types.

For much of the day Thursday, we anticipate MVFR restrictions.
Some lower ceilings could bring IFR conditions back in by late
afternoon, especially on the hilltops at KITH and KBGM.

E-SE surface winds 5-10 kt for most of tonight, will become quite
strong and gusty towards daybreak, then remain so for much of the
day Thursday out of the SE. It appears that winds will strengthen
at the same time over a deep layer early Thursday, with strong,
gusty winds developing throughout the lowest several thousand
feet AGL. Thus, LLWS will not be included at this time.


Friday/Saturday/Sunday...On and off MVFR possible in rain

Monday...Mainly VFR.





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