Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 051739
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ALL SNOW BANDS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. THUS HAVE CANCELED ALL REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS.
SOME FLURRIES COULD STILL OCCUR AROUND MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR.
HAVE ADJUSTED HIGHS SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AS MARCH SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO AT
LEAST GET TO 30 DEGREES TODAY.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY ALL THE PRECIPITATION ON RADAR WAS OF A WINTER
TYPE...WITH SCATTERED AREAS RECEIVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR
SLEET. ONLY MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI WAS SEEING A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD BETWEEN THE RAIN AND THE APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER. SNOW
TOTALS HAVE EXCEEDED EVENING FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA...SO HAVE UPDATED NEW TOTALS TO 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. FARTHER SOUTH IN THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 9 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. NOT SEEING AS MUCH FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...WITH THE CHANGEOVER COMING IN AS SLEET AND SNOW. SO
MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AGAIN BY SUNRISE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. HAVE
NOT CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE WSW TO END THE STORM EARLY...AS LZK
RADAR RETURNS SHOWS SNOW STILL TO THE WEST...AND IR SATELLITE
SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE WAA CONVEYOR BELT IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 9 AM AS
MODELS KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ALONG...AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A FEW POWER OUTAGES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BY THE
OFFICE...WITH ADDITIONAL OUTAGES LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING.

LATER TODAY SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AND IT APPEARS
THAT CLOUDS WILL EXIT PRETTY FAST FROM LATEST UPSTREAM SATELLITE
TRENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING THIS EVENING AS
WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 MPH. HAVE ISSUED A WINDCHILL ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA STARTING AT MIDNIGHT AS
VALUES DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

THIS WEEKEND...THE ARCTIC HIGH CENTER WILL RESIDE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE TWO GOOD DAYS OF MELTING. OF COURSE THAT
PROCESS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON FRIDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EXPECTED LOWS A GOOD 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A SECOND
WINDCHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINSHOWERS
ARE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RUN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY..WITH THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MOST FAVORED.
TEMPERATURES THIS TIME FRAME WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CONDS RAPIDLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. VFR AT KMEM...KMKL
AND KJBR WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT. KTUP WILL HOLD A MVFR DECK FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

SJM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-DESOTO-MARSHALL-TATE-TIPPAH-TUNICA.

TN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY
     FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$



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