Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
529 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 AM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/


An upper level low pressure system remains over Central
Mississippi early this morning. A few showers associated with the
upper low continue across the area, mainly over Northeast
Mississippi and a line stretching from near Earle, Arkansas to
Paris, Tennessee. Chances for showers will continue over Northeast
Mississippi after sunrise as the upper low slowly moves to the
southeast from Central Mississippi to the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, a hole in the cloud cover has developed over Phillips
County, Arkansas and Northwest Mississippi. Expect a few more of
these holes to develop through sunrise as the upper low moves to
the southeast. Patchy fog may develop where these holes develop.
If fog develops, the fog could become dense quickly due to the
light winds and wet ground. Will continue to monitor visibilities
for a potential dense fog advisory through the morning hours.

Upper ridging will begin to occur over the area on the backside of
the departing upper low today. Surface winds will turn around to
the south by the afternoon hours. This will allow highs to reach
into the lower to mid 70s this afternoon.

Southerly winds will increase over the area on Thursday as strong
warm air advection occurs. This will allow highs to reach into the
mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

A cold front will begin to move into the Mid-South on Friday. The
front will not move into the area until the afternoon hours thus
expect another warm day across the region. Highs will range from
the lower 70s across Northeast Arkansas to the lower 80s across
Northeast Mississippi. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may
develop along and ahead of the front Friday afternoon and will
increase in coverage as the front pushes east of the Mississippi
River Friday evening. Can`t rule out a few strong to severe storms
developing near Paris, Tennessee Friday evening. Cooler
temperatures will filter into the area behind the front.

Cool high pressure will build into the region on Saturday. Expect
highs ranging from the upper 40s to the upper 50s. The high will
move directly over the Mid-South Saturday Night allowing lows to
drop to freezing or slightly below for the first time since the

The high will shift east on Sunday allowing winds to turn back
around to the south. Temperatures will be near normal with
readings in the mid to upper 50s.

A warm front will begin to lift northward over the area Sunday
Night. Models do not agree on how quickly the front will lift
north. As a result, will have at least slight chance to chance
POPs in the forecast for the Sunday Night through Monday Night
period. Warmer temperatures will return behind the warm front.
Expect highs to return to the mid 60s at least from Memphis

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur on Tuesday ahead
of the next cold front. Expect highs to reach back into the lower
to mid 70s.



/12z TAFs/

Low clouds and patchy fog will persist across the Mid-South
through mid/late morning. Ceilings will vary from 500-1500 ft
during this time, with visibility at the forecast terminals
generally 5 statute miles or greater. Expect improving conditions
by early afternoon, with VFR conditions anticipated area wide by
mid afternoon. Patchy fog (and potentially some low ceilings) is
anticipated overnight given the light winds and antecedent moist
conditions. Winds will be light today, generally less than 6 kts.





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