Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 161801
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
101 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING. THUS ALLOWED THE FREEZE
WARNING TO EXPIRE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM THIS MORNINGS UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS WERE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND PLUS 2 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS MORNING
VERSUS MINUS 6 TO MINUS 8 CELSIUS YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST.
INCREASED THE HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND MADE OTHER TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. UPDATE HAS ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE SEEN BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND SOME
ADDITIONAL AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BY
SUNRISE SO WILL KEEP FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION SO WINDS WILL
START TO BLOW FROM THE SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS A RESULT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. TONIGHT WILL SEE MILDER WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER SEEING SOME
PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S. THURSDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY THE
FRONT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND DIE OUT AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA
SO THERE WILL ONLY BE A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH LITTLE COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
AROUND 70.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY NICE FOR THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN. THE FRONT WILL GET CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST FROM 7 TO 10 KNOTS...BUT WILL SUBSIDE
A BIT AFTER SUNDOWN. WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE IN SPEED NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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