Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 201131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT JBR THROUGH 20/13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S/SSW WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS TODAY
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 21/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





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