Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 301958
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
258 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Very warm temperatures but less humid conditions have prevailed
across the Mid South this Memorial Day holiday under partly to
mostly sunny skies. A mid level shortwave over the Arklatex this
afternoon will lift slowly northeast through Tuesday. This feature
will help to enhance isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms...especially along and west of the Mississippi River
from later this afternoon through Tuesday. Moderate instability
this afternoon west of the Mississippi River could support a few
strong storms into early evening. Instability should wane later
this evening and overnight...reducing the threat for strong
storms. As daytime heating ensues again on Tuesday and the low
level airmass moistens further...a few more strong thunderstorms
will be possible again on Tuesday afternoon into early evening.

By mid week...an upper level low pressure system over the
southwest United States will move slowly eastward towards the Mid
South. Deeper moisture will be drawn northward into the area ahead
of this feature. This will help to increase chances for showers
and thunderstorms over the region...with the greatest potential
expected areawide by Thursday as a weak frontal boundary drops
into the area and stalls. This should help provide a focus for
storm development. Considering increasing instability but modest
shear...a few more strong to potentially pulse severe storms will
again be possible. Overall the threat for significant severe
weather appears very low due to lack of stronger upper support and
shear. High temperatures should be a few degrees cooler due to
increased cloud cover and rain potential...with overnight lows
remaining mild.

The upper low stays to our west through the weekend with the
stalled frontal boundary remaining over the area. This will keep
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the
extended forecast period with near normal temperatures and
humidity expected.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18z TAF Set

Upper short wave to gradually move east and bring a chance for
thunderstorms late this afternoon at JBR and MEM and later tonight
at MKL. Winds to remain mostly northeast and light. Showers will
taper off late tonight and early tomorrow.

WER

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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