Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 180441
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1041 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated to include 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

UPDATE...

Updated to lower overnight low temperatures along and east of the
Mississippi River and expand wind chill advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Arctic high pressure will settle over the Mid South tonight. This
should provide light winds and clear skies over top of the
existing snowpack. This should provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions over much of the area, especially east of the
Mississippi River tonight.

Low temperatures should plummet to the single digits along and
east of the Mississippi River, with below zero temperatures across
northwest Tennessee and along the normally colder locations within
the Tennessee River Valley. Although winds will be fairly light,
near zero or below actual temperatures will produce below zero
wind chills across portions of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel, west Tennessee, and far northeast Mississippi.
Therefore, the wind chill advisory has been expanded to cover
these locations.

In addition to the cold weather hazards, there will likely be icy
roadways across a large portion of the Mid South through Thursday
morning. Some areas continue to have snow covered roads with
others having snow melt refreeze into black ice. Please use
caution if driving tonight through Thursday morning. Good news is
temperatures should warm up into the 30s areawide on Thursday
helping to improve road conditions in many areas.

Updated forecast and hazards have been issue.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

Skies remain mostly sunny across the forecast area this afternoon
with temperatures from the upper teens to mid 20s. High pressure
was centered over the Ark-La-Tex region. The high will slide off
to the east tonight keeping skies clear and temperatures will be
quite cold again but not as cold as this morning with lows
Wednesday morning from around 10 degrees to the mid teens. Wind
chill values will be at or below zero over northern sections of
the forecast area so will issue a Wind Chill Advisory for these
areas.

High pressure will remain south of the region Thursday keeping dry
weather and below normal temperatures. Highs will be warmer than
today with highs in the mid to upper 30s. The high will be moving
east of the forecast area Thursday night allowing winds to become
more southerly with milder air moving in. Temperatures Thursday
night will still be below normal but not nearly as cold with lows
Friday morning in the upper teens to lower 20s.

By Friday, even milder air will be moving into the region and it
will be the first day we will see temperatures close to normal
levels with highs mainly in the mid 40s. Friday night will see
temperatures finally remaining above freezing overnight over most
of the forecast area with lows Saturday morning in the low to mid
30s. Saturday will see more dry and seasonable weather as the
surface high reaches southern Georgia.

By Saturday night, a cold front will be moving across the southern
plains with a few showers possible. The cold will be moving
through Arkansas on Sunday and through the forecast area Sunday
night. This will result in more showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

By Monday, the cold front will be east of the forecast with rain
ending from west to east. Temperatures will turn cooler behind the
front but won`t be nearly as cold as with this last front. Dry
weather and near normal temperatures will continue for Tuesday
and next Wednesday as high pressure returns to the region.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Set

VFR conditions expected to persist through the period. Light
winds increasing to SSW winds between 5-7 kts then becoming light
again by 19/00z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for Mississippi.

MO...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for Alcorn-
     Tishomingo.

TN...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for Benton TN-
     Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-
     Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-
     Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

$$



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