Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 100957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
357 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Early morning surface analysis showed an Arctic pressure ridge
over the Ohio Valley, extending into the Midsouth. Southeasterly
low level flow will develop over the Midsouth, behind the departing
pressure ridge. As is often the case with departing Arctic airmasses,
temperatures recover before dewpoints. Such will be the case today-
areas near the TN River will likely see minimum RH values of 25 to
30 percent, accompanied by light winds.

Low level modified maritime air will enter the delta area tonight
and Sunday, ahead of approaching Pacific cold front. This morning`s
forecast includes a mention of thunder to the Sunday night period,
as strong frontal forcing should be sufficient to tap into weak
elevated instability around 850mb. The Pacific front will stall
out over central/southern MS on Monday and Tuesday. Weak isentropic
lift may provide a few light showers over north MS as weak midlevel
shortwaves pass. Otherwise, fair and mild weather over the
Midsouth Monday and Tuesday.

Another Arctic frontal passage appears likely on Wednesday. Other
than some brief showers over north MS, this front will likely be
accompanied by insufficient moisture for precipitation of any
consequence over the Midsouth.

Some concern as we look toward the late week periods. The GFS and
ECMWF models show strong warm advection developing Friday, above
the very dry and shallow Arctic air. Some precip will likely be
lost to evaporation, but some may reach the ground before the
marine warm front surges north Friday evening. Have added a
rain/sleet/snow wording to areas north of I-40 Friday and Friday
night. If the GFS and ECMWF verify, Saturday morning`s sunrise
temps may exceed Friday afternoon`s temps for some areas- depends
on the northward surge of mild Gulf air. Excellent GFS/ECMWF
agreement notwithstanding, this is still Day 7, and much can



06z TAFs

VFR conditions to continue through the period. Light East to
Northeast winds.



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