Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 291941
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
241 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge of high pressure remains centered over the
southern Ohio Valley. The Mid South remains positioned to the
south of the ridge center with deep easterly flow in place. Moist
and humid conditions along with weak capping and strong heating
has supported isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Any convection should diminish by early evening with the loss of
afternoon heating. Clear skies and light winds are expected across
the entire area tonight with patchy fog redeveloping across
northern and eastern sections. Temperatures should remain warm
overnight with continued high humidity levels.

A similar weather pattern remains in place again on Tuesday with
mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
along with continued hot and humid weather. Heat index values may
approach heat advisory criteria of 105F degrees during peak
heating.

The upper ridge will break down by Wednesday as a strong upper
trough digs into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states. This
should help to deflect the Gulf tropical system eastward well to
the south of our forecast area. This trough will also help to
advance a weak cold front south towards the Mid South. Hot and
humid weather is still expected on Wednesday across much of the
region ahead of the front. Heat advisory levels may again be
approached...especially along and south of Interstate 40. This
will be closely watched through mid week. In addition...an
increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected by
Wednesday afternoon ahead of the approaching front across the
northern half of the region. Much of the upper forcing should
remain northeast of the area and low level convergence with the
front should remain weak. This should keep pops on the lower side
with scattered coverage at best. Slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday night and Thursday as
the front moves south through the region.

High pressure builds into the area for the end of the week and
into next weekend. Cooler and less humid weather conditions can be
expected through early next weekend before warmer weather along
with increased humidity returns by the end of next weekend into
early next week. Dry weather should also prevail from Friday
through next Monday which encompasses the remainder of the
extended forecast period.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated
TSRAs are possible this afternoon according to HI-RES models but
coverage will be too sparse to mention in TAFs. Some light fog is
possible at KMKL late tonight. Northeast winds 5-10 kts will
diminish to 5 kts or less tonight.

SJM

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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