Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260000
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
700 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO,
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF MEXICO NORTHWARD TO DENVER, AND FROM YUMA,
AZ EASTWARD TO DALLAS, TX.  AT THE SURFACE AT 18Z TODAY, THERE WAS
ONE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE AREAS, FROM NORTHERN WYOMING TO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TO NEAR KANSAS CITY, AND THEN STRETCHING FARTHER
EAST AS A COLD FRONT.  THE LARGE UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPRESS CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, AS WELL AS
HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SURFACE ONCE THE
DIURNAL HEATING RELAXES THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL SCALE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. ALSO, THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME WARM AIR INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. WE KNOW DDC SET A
NEW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 90F DEGREES (VS 88F RECORD) SO FAR.
MORE RECORDS COULD BE ESTABLISHED OR SET TODAY, WITH A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF HEATING AVAILABLE.

TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, AND COULD BE THE
FOCUS BOUNDARY FOR LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-70 TOWARD
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONLY
INDICATING 3 TO 5 SM IN MY CWA, BUT WITH DENSER FOG TO OUR NORTH.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY QUITE A BIT, RANGING FROM THE MID
40S IN THE SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY AREAS, TO THE LOWER 50S FROM
HAYS TO CIMARRON TO LIBERAL, TO AS HIGH AS 59F DEGREES IN THE
PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND CAUSE SURFACE WINDS
TO BLOW FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 15MPH GUSTING TO 23MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.  THERE COULD BE SOME LATE DAY CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH, BUT I THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL ONLY BE THIN IN NATURE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE MID
80S FROM HAYS TO GARDEN CITY TO JOHNSON CITY AND POINTS NORTHWEST,
TO THE UPPER 80S FROM NEAR LARNED TO KINSLEY TO MEADE, AND TO THE
LOWER 90S IN OUR SOUTHEAST FROM ASHLAND TO COLDWATER TO PRATT TO
MEDICINE LODGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING IT
FEEL COOLER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. SKIES THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY SUNDAY A SURFACE BOUNDARY, LOCATED
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AT 00Z SUNDAY, WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THAT WILL PRECEDE THIS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED ABOVE THE 600MB LEVEL SO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE WEST AFTER 12Z SUNDAY
AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT HAYS
THERE WILL BE SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR FOG POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  87  53  71 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  49  86  49  68 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  53  88  52  68 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  53  90  53  70 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  52  84  52  67 /   0   0   0  10
P28  59  91  60  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURGERT



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