Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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187
FXUS63 KDDC 090017
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
617 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Arctic airmass continues to dominate the weather picture across
the central High Plains today as 1040+ mb surface high pressure
noses down across western Kansas. Through tonight into Friday, the
axis of the high pressure moves off into eastern Kansas and
Missouri while surface pressure lowers in the lee of the Rockies.

Tonight will be fairly cold again with the coldest temperatures in
the single digits located over central Kansas. Slightly warmer
conditions are expected in the southwest corner where lows are
expected to bottom out in the mid teens. Satellite imagery shows a
broad area of isentropic ascent induced stratus over the southern
High Plains and extending up into far southeast Colorado this
afternoon. 290K isentropic from the RAP13 shows this area trying
to expand into far southwest Kansas later this afternoon and
evening but it appears that the bulk of the clouds should stay
south of the area as the ascent weakens tonight. Still, any cloud
cover could have significant impacts on overnight lows especially
around Elkhart and Liberal.

Warm air advection continues across the area on Friday with 850 mb
temperatures rising back above 0 deg celsius over the western part
of the area. With increased boundary layer mixing, we should see
temperatures back into the 30s over most areas with the warmest
readings in the mid 40s over the far southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

A fairly flat zonal pattern to the upper level flow will be in
place over the CONUS through the early part of next week. A weak
ripple in the flow will push a weak cold front into western
Kansas Saturday night with slightly cooler air moving into central
and west central Kansas behind it.

It appears that more opportunities for Arctic intrusions into the
central High Plains are on tap through the remainder of the extended
period. Deep low pressure over Northwest Territories will move over
the southern Canadian provinces early next week. Meridional flow
over western Canada will push another slug of Arctic air southward
into western Kansas by late Monday or Tuesday. Model details vary
on the strength of this cold air intrusion. Suffice it to say
that we should be looking at below normal temperatures through the
remainder of the extended period, especially with a potentially
stronger shot of cold air later next week. Precipitation chances
appear to be fairly minimal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 608 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Satellite and surface observations confirm a large area of stratus
in the 4000-7000 foot layer across much of the southern High
Plains and just about none of the short term models have picked up
on it. As a result, the blended guidance grids do not represent
reality. For the CloudBasePrimary grid, loaded in the NAM12 which
appeared to have the best clue of cloud in the increasing
isentropic upglide above this low level arctic dome. For aviation
interests, there should be an increase in clouds, mainly just
above MVFR threshold tonight. However, in the 12-18z time frame
tomorrow, the NAM12 indicates there will probably be a corridor
of MVFR cloud in the 2000-3000 foot range at GCK and DDC.
Otherwise, winds will increase at the surface from the south after
daybreak, with sustained 15 to 18 knots expected by midday into
afternoon and gusts in the mid 20s at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  35  20  46 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  10  37  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  14  45  23  58 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  13  42  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  31  17  41 /   0   0   0   0
P28  10  35  21  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid



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