Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 240648
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1248 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Short range models show an upper level shortwave moving eastward
across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today, ushering a
cold front through western Kansas this afternoon. Although a
northwest flow aloft will intensify across the Western High Plains,
a lack of moisture/instability will hinder precip chances across
western Kansas during the period, however some increased cloud
cover is likely. Temperatures will be well above normal today
regardless of a cold front pushing through western Kansas this
afternoon. Should see highs back up into the 70s(F) toward early
afternoon with temperatures then dropping during the mid to late
afternoon hours as colder air begins to surge southward across
western Kansas. Expect lows generally down into the 30s(F)
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1247 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

A dry pattern will persist across western Kansas through the
early part of next week as ridging aloft rebuilds across the
Intermountain West and moves slowly eastward into the Western High
Plains during the early part of the period. A weakening flow
aloft and much drier air in the lower/mid levels will hinder
precip chances through at least Tuesday afternoon. Much cooler
temperatures are likely Saturday as colder air surges southward
into western Kansas dropping H85 temperatures below 10C late in
the day. Highs may struggle to reach the lower to mid 60s(F)
Saturday afternoon. Low level southerlies will return quickly
Sunday in response to ridging aloft moving across the Intermountain
West into the Western High Plains. With erosion of the cooler air
mass, look for highs reaching the 70s(F) by Monday afternoon.
More seasonal temperatures can be expected Tuesday as yet another
strong cold front pushes through western Kansas early in the day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Friday
evening. West-southwest winds 5 to 10kt will persist through late
Friday morning as a weak surface trough moves east across central
into eastern Kansas. Winds will turn northerly 10 to 20kt Friday
afternoon as a cold front pushes across western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  77  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  75  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  75  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  77  37  62 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  75  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
P28  43  78  39  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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