Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 211751
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1151 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
...Updated Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
Splendid spring weather continues, in February. A clear sky will
continue this afternoon, with temperatures approaching record
levels in the mid to upper 70s. SW downslope winds of 10-20 mph at
midday will weaken by sunset.
Tonight...Increasing mid/high clouds and a light downslope SW
wind of 5-15 mph will work together to keep temperatures again
unseasonably mild for February. Expecting all locations to remain
above freezing, ranging from mid 30s NW to mid 40s SE.
Wednesday...Continued unseasonably warm, with 70s for all zones
during the afternoon, near 80 along the Oklahoma border. Per GFS
soundings, introduced a period of mid/high overcast for several
hours during the morning. Winds will be variable in direction,
starting out SW in the morning, light and variable during the
afternoon, then increasing from the SE late in the day in response
to lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
A surface trough of low pressure will continue to deepen over
eastern Colorado mid week as a westerly down slope continues
across the Central Rockies. Following the 850mb temperature trends
from 00z Wednesday to 00z Thursday the highs on Wednesday should
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highs may end up a little
warmer in portions of southwest Kansas.
Also on Wednesday an upper level disturbance will cross the
Northern Plains, and as this upper level system moves into the
Great Lakes region Wednesday night the next, stronger, upper level
trough will quickly move east across California and Nevada. Over
the Central Plains a surface cold front will move into southwest
Kansas where it will briefly become stationary before beginning to
lift back north as a warm front late Thursday afternoon.
Another warm day can be expected south of this frontal boundary
and highs once again will climb into the 70s. North of this
frontal boundary the highs will on average be 15 to 20 degrees
cooler Thursday afternoon. In addition to the warm temperatures, a
gusty southwest wind will develop across portions of southwest
Kansas Thursday afternoon as an area of low pressure at the
surface deepens across eastern Colorado in response to the next
upper level disturbance moving east across the Central Rockies.
Thursday night into Friday this upper level disturbance will
cross the Central Plains as the deepening area of low pressure
crosses western Kansas. Moisture and isentropic lift will improve
Thursday night ahead of the eastward moving upper level trough
which will be located near the left exit region of a 250mb jet.
Enhanced lift is still forecast across southern Nebraska and
northern Kansas where an area of 850mb to 700mb frontogenesis
will be located for 6 to 12 hours. Based on temperature profiles
the precipitation will begin as rain Thursday evening but change
to all snow after midnight. Could easily see several inches of
snow where ever this band of enhanced lift develops by early
Friday morning. The GFS and ECMWF still favoring in keeping this
accumulating snowfall near the Nebraska border.
Some snow is still possible in north central and west central
Kansas Thursday night and Friday as a cold front moves across
southwest Kansas. At this time it is still too early to tell how
much snow will fall if it does develop this far south.
Very windy conditions will also be possible behind the cold front
late Thursday night and Friday. Given the cold air advection
forecast on Friday along with the chance for cloud cover am
concerned that temperatures are too warm, especially in the north.
A warming trend will return over the weekend and into early next
week as one upper level system moves into the Ohio Valley and the
next eastern Pacific upper level wave starts to move across the
southwestern United States.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
VFR conditions at all locations through the TAF period. A surface
trough located in Eastern Colorado deepens, causing wind from the
south-southwest at 5-15 knots, changing to west-southwest ~12Z,
then to west-northwest by ~18Z as the trough slowly moves east.
Upper level moisture moves in ~12Z for all TAF sites for a short
period, dropping ceilings to roughly 15-20,000 feet.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 76 43 78 42 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 76 38 77 39 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 76 42 79 41 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 75 39 80 41 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 76 44 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
P28 75 42 78 45 / 0 0 0 0