Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 302334
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
634 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

An upper level low currently over Nebraska will continue to slowly
spin eastward tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. Meanwhile, a secondary upper level low will dig into the
Four Corners region tonight then into the Southern Rockies
tomorrow. Moisture over western Kansas looks abundant which will
likely bring mostly cloudy skies through tomorrow. The only
exception to this will be across the KS/OK border for the
remainder of this afternoon into this evening. Precipitation
chances look to increase across far southwestern Kansas after
midnight tonight then spread northeastward through the morning
hours. Precipitation chances spread across the entire forecast
area tomorrow afternoon. As for temperatures, lows tonight are
expected to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
lower 40s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow look to
range from the lower 50s across west central Kansas to around 60
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Cool cyclonic flow persists across Kansas Sunday night into
Monday, providing a chance of a few more scattered showers and
keeping temperatures still well below normal. The remainder of
next week will feature quiet weather with a pronounced warming
trend. Strong high pressure over Alberta Monday afternoon will
evolve into a sharp ridge over the Rocky Mountains Tuesday through
Thursday. Afternoon temperatures will warm several degrees each of
these days, although very wet soils will slow this process down
some. Friday will be the warmest day of this forecast, as high
pressure ridge axis spreads into Kansas. Models continue to
suggest a strong closed low entering the Desert Southwest Friday
and quickly eject northeast towards the CWA by Saturday afternoon.
This evolution would bring strong winds to SW KS late this week,
along with severe convective potential along the associated dry
line. Entering the peak of our severe weather season, and this
will be watched carefully over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

A secondary vort max will move across western Kansas tonight with
increasing mid level cloudiness, then as another system
approaches, cigs may lower to MVFR after 15-18Z. Downslope winds
around 10-14kt will prevail tonight, then increase to more
northerly at 15-25kt after 12-15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  55  40  60 /  10  40  50  20
GCK  37  53  38  60 /  10  40  50  20
EHA  37  51  38  57 /  20  60  40  20
LBL  39  53  40  59 /  20  50  40  20
HYS  39  54  39  61 /  10  20  40  20
P28  43  61  44  63 /  10  30  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse



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