Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262030
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
330 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Broad surface high pressure across the Northern Rockies extending
through western Kansas and into the panhandles will continue to
provide north to easterly surface winds tonight. The low level post
frontal stratus has begun to partially mix out this afternoon,
lifting ceilings as insolation indirectly warmed the cloud layer in
this neutral temperature tendency boundary layer. Latest HRRR is
quick to redevelop the lower clouds behind this front this evening
with quite low ceilings, however that`s in contrast to the HiRes
NMM/ARW as well as the SREF probabilities for the low clouds. Most
residual cloud cover will likely remain Mvfr or VFR across the
southern 2/3rds of the area. There is not a large spread in the
various model overnight lows, however there is much support for
widespread 40`s, with even low 40s possible in the far western
sections of Kansas. Warmer highs are expected Wednesday, however
still about 10 climatological degrees cooler, in the low
70s/upper 60s with light northeast winds.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Fall like temperatures are expected through the week as cool
recirculated air from the current broad surface high influences
southwest Kansas. Consensus of models indicates a more
substantiated warming by the end of the week as the surface winds
increase out of the south and southwest, with highs in the 80s
probable by the weekend. The best chances for some more showers
and thunderstorms returns Thursday night, which may be a result of
a lead wave associated with the next significant upper low to
develop over the western States. Additional chances for storms in
the western will continue through the weekend as the upper low
lifts into the northern plains, and the high plains from Colorado
into New Mexico becomes convectively unstable each afternoon with
generally a mean southwest steering flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

Ceilings will gradually improve through this afternoon through
this evening. By tonight, although some of the models redevelop
the LIFR stratus across parts of the area, the pattern is not the
most suited for widespread redevelopment, and we`ve gone with the
less aggressive solutions, containing into this evening with MVFR
clouds as surface high pressure builds farther south into the
central High Plains.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  70  49  70 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  44  68  49  66 /  10  10  10  30
EHA  44  64  47  60 /  10  20  20  50
LBL  47  67  49  66 /  20  20  10  40
HYS  46  69  49  71 /  10   0   0  10
P28  53  71  53  74 /  20  20   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell



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