Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231955
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAP, HRRR, and NAM all suggesting dryline will be located near
Garden City and Liberal between 21Z Wednesday and 00z Thursday.
Convective initiation along this boundary however somewhat more
uncertain given the warm 700mb temperatures and cloud
cover/precipitation currently over portions of southwest Kansas.
At this time based on the ARW,NMM, and HRRR still suggests there
will be some widely scattered convection developing late day/early
this evening. Will therefore follow the general trend of the non
hydrostatic models for for late today/early tonight but keep
precipitation chances more widely scattered. Mid level instability
and shear continues to support that if storms do develop they will
be capable of becoming severe. Main hazard early tonight still
appears to be hail and strong winds given shear, mid level
instability, high cloud bases, downdraft capes, and model
soundings at 00z Thursday.

A cold front crossing northwest Kansas earlier this afternoon is
forecast to cross southwest Kansas between 00z and 09z Thursday.
Convection along this cold front is expected to develop late day
and increase in areal coverage early tonight as an upper level
trough, which was located near the four corners region as 12z
Thursday, moves east across the Central High Plains. This cold
front will provide the better opportunity for precipitation,
especially along and east of a Dighton to Liberal line based on
where the better low level moisture is forecast to be early tonight
by the NAM. Precipitation chances will begin to taper off from
northwest to southeast, mainly after midnight as this cold front
surges south.

Behind this cold front very windy conditions are expected to
develop given the pressure tendencies and 925 to 850mb winds. Wind
speeds of 30 to 35 mph will be likely for several hours behind
this front, especially west of highway 283 between 03z and 09z.
After 09z Thursday the winds will begin to decrease and are
expected to continue to decrease during the day on Thursday as a
surface high/ridge axis crosses western Kansas. NAM and GFS 850mb
mixdown temperatures and guidance was with 2-4 degrees of each
other for highs on Thursday so given this and the expected
sunshine Thursday afternoon will stay close to what they suggest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Medium range models indicate weak upper level ridging transitioning
eastward across the Western High Plains Friday and into the Central
Plains Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough of low
pressure will begin to push ashore into southern California Saturday
setting up a southwest flow across the Western High Plains by
Saturday afternoon. As a lack of significant low/mid level moisture
prevails during this time frame, dry conditions will persist through
Saturday afternoon. The potential for thunderstorms returns Saturday
evening as the upper level trough begins to lift northeast out of
the Desert Southwest into the Western High Plains. As the shortwave
approaches, a prevailing low level southeasterly flow will continue
to draw moisture northward into Kansas ahead of a sharpening dryline.
Although where the dryline sets up is uncertain this far out, the
likelihood for thunderstorm development is good ahead of it as upper
level dynamic support becomes more favorable. Severe weather is
possible late Saturday into early Sunday morning. Precip potential
shifts north and east Sunday as the upper level trough lifts
northeast across the Western High Plains increasing the potential
for dryslotting across southwest Kansas.

Temperatures will be above normal Friday as weak upper level ridging
moves eastward out of the Rockies across the Western High Plains. A
south to southeasterly flow will return to western Kansas as lee
side troughing redevelops across eastern Colorado. This will draw
warmer air north into the area with H85 temperatures ranging from
around 20C across central Kansas to near 25C in far southwest
Kansas. Look for highs well up into the 80s(F) Friday afternoon.
The warming trend continues into Saturday as enhanced warm air
advection raises H85 temperatures into the mid to upper 20s(C)
across southwest Kansas. Mid to upper 80s(F) are likely Saturday
afternoon with the lower 90s(F) possible behind a dryline across
extreme southwest Kansas. Much cooler temperatures will arrive
early next week as a cold front sweeps through western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible by late day near a
dryline which will be located GCK to near LBL. Given the scattered
nature of these storms will favor VCTS over a tempo or prevailing
group between 21z and 03z. A better chance for convection will
accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas between 03z
Thursday and 09z Thursday. Cloud bases late today and overnight
are expected to be at or above the 800mb level so VFR conditions
are expected. Ahead of the approaching cold front, gusty south at
near 25 knots will continue through early tonight across all of
western Kansas. As the cold front passes these gusty winds will
shift to the north and increase once again to near 25 knots for
several hours before decreasing into the 15 to 20 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  72  45  84 /  60   0   0   0
GCK  44  71  44  84 /  40  10   0   0
EHA  44  73  45  85 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  45  75  45  86 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  46  72  43  81 /  80  10   0   0
P28  53  75  46  85 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ030-031-045-046-
064>066-077>081-087>090.

WIND ADVISORY from 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening to 2 AM CDT
/1 AM MDT/ Thursday FOR KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

WIND ADVISORY until 2 AM CDT Thursday FOR KSZ043-044-063-076-086.

RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-
085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Burgert






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