Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200846
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
346 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Overnight satellite and RAP analysis showed a subtropical
shortwave trough elongated in a north-south manner across the
Southwest region. Satellite confirmed extensive mid and high
tropospheric cloud from eastern Sonora and Chihuahua Mexico
northward into New Mexico. The northern periphery of high level
scattered cirrus was moving northward into central Colorado and
adjacent western Kansas. The extent and transparency of this high
cloud should not change much today and will likely only have a
very negligible impact on temperatures... and that would be across
the western counties only. Another day of highs in the upper 90s
to around 100 is expected with the very warm lower troposphere
still in place.

Thunderstorm chances are very low, even into the nighttime hours
as low level focus for convergence will be lacking. Nevertheless,
500-700mb moisture will be increasing, so isolated to widely
scattered weak convection cannot be ruled out later in the night,
and as a result will carry some 20 POPs just about everywhere. The
latest short term high resolution models seem to want to focus the
area of Texas Panhandle into far northwest OK, as well as far
northwestern Kansas where weak lee trough in the low levels will
exist. The nighttime POPs will likely need to be refined as short
term model signals hopefully improve.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Abundant Clouds Likely During Partial Solar Eclipse Monday...

The long-awaited solar eclipse (partial eclipse of 88% around
Elkhart to 95% around Hays) is almost here -- and unfortunately
for eclipse-watchers, it is looking more and more like an overcast
day -- or at the very least mostly cloudy. The Southwest
subtropical disturbance will be moving toward western Kansas late
Sunday Night into Monday, which by midday will be centered across
far eastern Colorado. A plume of very deep moisture throughout the
depth of the troposphere will extend from south-southwest to
north-northeast just in advance of this disturbance -- which would
include much of the western half of Kansas. Even with cloud
cover, there will be a surreal darkening of the sky at time of
maximum eclipse between 1755 and 1800 UTC (12:55pm to 1:00pm CDT).


As far as precipitation chances go, they will increase through the
day Monday, peaking Monday Night as the best 500-700mb lift moves
across a zone of increasing low level convergence. Highest POPs
will be up in the Ness-Rush-Ellis County area, closer to the
advancing surface front Monday Night. This system will move east
and shear out Tuesday, but some residual moisture in its wake with
some 700mb frontogenesis in the vicinity will necessitate keeping
some Chance POPs in the grids through the day Tuesday. For the
remainder of the week, temperatures will top out in the lower to
mid 80s for highs as a fresh Canadian airmass influences the
region. Precipitation forecast will be dry Wednesday through
Thursday Night, only to return by the end of the week as some
isentropic lift develops in a low level return flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Fairly quiet aviation weather should continue through the forecast
period. No major wind shift is forecast, with a continuation of
south winds through Sunday Night. Wind speeds late morning through
afternoon will be 12 to 15 knots sustained with some gusts in the
lower 20s knots. High level cloud cover will overspread the region
later in the day, but ceiling will be well above MVFR category.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  71  91  67 /  10  20  30  50
GCK  96  70  88  65 /  10  20  30  40
EHA  93  67  85  64 /  20  20  30  20
LBL  96  70  89  66 /  10  20  30  30
HYS 100  73  90  66 /  20  20  40  60
P28  99  74  95  71 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid


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