Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201914
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
214 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Cirrus thinning out and NE winds diminishing at midday. A pleasant
late summer afternoon with few clouds, light east winds, and
temperatures markedly cooler than yesterday, in the 80s.

Tonight...clear. Light east winds veer SEly by dawn. A wide range
in temperatures expected at sunrise Thursday, ranging from the
upper 40s in Hamilton county to near 70 near Kiowa.

Thursday...Sunny, unseasonably hot, windy and dry...again.
SW flow aloft will persist, between a strong cold trough producing
snow in Nevada, and a 590 dm upper ridge axis near Detroit.
Another round of strong leeside cyclogenesis is progged across NE
Colorado near/east of Denver, which will induce strong S/SW winds
again by afternoon, averaging 20-30 mph. Just like Tuesday, some
gusts near 40 mph can be expected. Strong warm advection on these
south winds will drive temperatures again to unseasonably hot
readings, well into the 90s (normal is near 80). Another
pronounced dryline will hang out over the eastern CWA Thursday
afternoon, separating dewpoints in the 60s and 70s across
eastern/central Kansas, versus 40s across western Kansas. Not
expecting any afternoon convection along this dryline boundary,
and kept pop grids dry (<15%), but have noted that some models
keep insisting that an isolated thunderstorm is plausible near
Barber county during peak heating. 12z NAM now joins the ECMWF
with its QPF fields showing this potential. Far more important
impact will be enhanced fire danger once again, as strong hot dry
winds blow across SW KS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Meridional synoptic pattern will be stagnant and slow to change
Friday through the weekend, courtesy of a blocking high pressure
ridge over the eastern US, and Hurricane Maria inching north
through the western Atlantic. Because of this traffic jam, the
strong closed low over the Great Basin Friday, will make only
painfully slow progress eastward over the weekend, ending up only
in Utah by Sunday. Associated forcing for ascent ahead of this
system will be very slow to spread west to east across SW KS
during this time period. Expect several days of strong south/SW
winds as this trough slowly inches toward Kansas.

Friday...Windy hot and largely dry, again. Models continue to slow
down the progression of the synoptic pattern, with 12z ECMWF now
showing little if any convection across the western zones. GFS and
forecast builder remain continuity with chance pops along and west
of US 83, and these were retained. Still hot and way above normal,
in the low to mid 90s, and the max temp grids for Friday may not
be high enough with no change in pattern or airmass.

Saturday...Better confidence on showers and thunderstorms
arriving along and west of US 283, as the synoptic pattern inches
eastward. Pops in the likely category are justified, but these
strongly favor the west/NW zones. Areas east of US 283 most likely
will remain dry. With the SW flow aloft, at least marginal CAPE
and notable shear, some strong to severe storms are possible
across the western zones late Saturday. Heights do start reducing
aloft, and temperatures respond, cooling back to the 80s.

Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms continue to SLOWLY expand
eastward, especially Sunday night into Monday as upper low ejects
into NW Colorado and forcing improves over SW KS. ECMWF and 12z
MEX guidance continue to suggest this Sunday/Monday timeframe is
our best opportunity to pick up some sorely needed rainfall. Cloud
cover and lowering heights/thickness allow afternoon temperatures
to fall back to the 75-85 range. Much cooler by Monday, with 60s
west and 70s east.

Eventually by Tuesday, the trough axis arrives in the western
plains, and the moist conveyor axis and rainfall shift east of
SW KS. Rain chances are gone in the grids by Tuesday afternoon.
Pleasant fall-like temperatures expected Tuesday and Wednesday,
with lows well down into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

VFR/SKC through Thursday. Breezy NE winds at midday will trend
light easterly by 00z, and light SEly by 12z Thursday. After
15z Thursday, strong S/SW winds will impact aviation operations
at all airports, averaging 20-30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Issued another red flag warning for fire zones along and west of
US 283 for Thursday afternoon. Another unseasonably hot and windy
afternoon is expected, with S/SW winds averaging 20-30 mph. Just
like Tuesday, some gusts near 40 mph are likely. Compared to
Tuesday, models are less intense with the dry air intrusion into
SW KS Thursday afternoon, with min RH thresholds more marginal
(15-20%). Given the potential impacts are the same, much of the
area has not seen rain for quite some time, and our dewpoint grids
are usually not dry enough behind the dryline anyway, opted to
issue another red flag warning from 1 pm through 8 pm CDT
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  59  95  70 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  83  51  96  67 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  82  52  91  62 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  85  54  94  68 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  81  59  96  72 /   0   0  10  10
P28  90  68  97  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/
Thursday for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner
FIRE WEATHER...Turner


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