Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 282227
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A strong upper level low pressure system over the southern Great
Lakes this morning will slowly move south into the Ohio Valley
through Thursday. This system pushed a weak backdoor cold front
through southwest Kansas this morning. Temperatures should rise a
few more degrees this afternoon but should top out anywhere from
the mid 70s in central Kansas to the mid/upper 80s in the southwest
corner. Surface high pressure will continue to nose into the central
High Plains through Thursday. The cooler high pressure airmass
will keep temperatures confined to around 70 degrees in central
Kansas ranging to the mid 70s along the Colorado border. Drier air
associated with the upper level high pressure ridge will keep
skies mainly clear through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper level ridge over the central Plains will begin to break down
by weeks end with westerly, albeit weak, flow aloft increasing over
the central High Plains. This trajectory will allow weak disturbances
in the upper level flow to move out over the region with chances for
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms increasing again by Saturday
night. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal through the end
of the week with daytime highs generally staying in the 70s.

Through the early part of next week, the medium range models are
indicating a strong upper level system moving into western North
America and potentially impacting the central High Plains by
around next Monday or Tuesday. The models have shown fairly poor
run-to-run consistency with the strength and potential track of
this system. Suffice it to say there will be increasing chances
for thunderstorms with possible severe weather somewhere across
central or even western Kansas late Monday or more likely Tuesday
afternoon and evening. By the middle of next week, daytime high
temperatures may only be reaching the 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 526 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Mostly clear skies will continue through tonight bringing VFR
conditions. Winds will generally be from the northeast this
evening becoming light and variable after midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  71  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  46  76  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  74  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  42  69  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  46  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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