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000
FXUS63 KDDC 092323
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
523 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VIS SAT LOOP SUPPORTING NAM AND GFS TRENDS OF
LOW CLOUDS SPREADING BACK INTO THE SW KS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DPROG/DT OF THE ST IN THE EHA AREA INDICATES THIS LOW DECK
(MVFR CIGS) WILL REACH GCK AND DDC BETWEEN 8Z AND 9Z AND THEN HYS
AFTER 12Z. MODELS THEN SHOWING THE LLVLS CONTINUING TO SATURATE
WITH IFR CONDITION LIKELY BETWEEN 12Z-18Z AT DDC AND GCK. AFTER
18Z CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOME BUT GIVEN THE PROGGED LLVL MOISTURE
FROM THE NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AT ALL TAF SITES.-RB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

NICE AND SUNNY ALBEIT COLD DAY TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
STRATUS THAT HAD CLIPPED OUR FAR SW FA THIS MORNING EBBED BACK
INTO CO/NM THIS MORNING BUT IS NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF FLOWING BACK.
TEMPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND NIGHT TIME FG/DZ WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE COLD SURFACE HIGH IS POSITIONED RIGHT OVER KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THUS WINDS HAVE BEEN COMPARATIVELY LIGHT. AS THIS
HIGH SHIFTS INTO EASTERN KS TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, SW FLOW DEVELOPS AT 850.
THIS WILL SET UP WEAK WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN
THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS. WITH ANY UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SFC
FLOW, FOG AND STRATUS BECOMES POSSIBLE. INDEED THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING THE STRATUS PULLING ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF SW KS TONIGHT
AND REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE STRATUS WILL
HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WE HAVEN`T HAD MUCH MELTING
TODAY, ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE CREEPING UP, SO DO NOT HAVE REAL
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG TONIGHT. MODELS HINT AT IT (ESP MOS) SO
HAVE REINSERTED PATCHY FOG OVER MUCH OF SW KS TONIGHT. REGARDING
TEMPS: WE HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO BREAK MUCH OUT OF THE M20S TODAY AND
THE AIRMASS IS QUITE COLD. DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER, TEMPS
WILL FALL QUITE EASILY THIS EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN LOW. KEPT THE
LOWS I INHERITED ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW.

THERE COULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS TOMORROW BUT THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN HOLDS, THUS CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE RULE. WITH
CLOUDY SKIES, CAN`T SEE US WARMING TOO MUCH SO I KNOCKED TEMPS
BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF SW KS TOMORROW. MODELS ARE MUCH
MORE BULLISH AT FOG TOMORROW NIGHT AND EVEN SHOW THE .01 QPF WHICH
SIGNALS AT THE POSSIBILITY OF DZ. THE PATTERN DOES LOOK CONDUCIVE
SO I PUT IN AREAS OF FG AND PATCHY DZ LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. WE
BEGIN TO SEE A SFC WIND RESPONSE THU MORNING AS WINDS BEGIN TO
PICK UP A BIT OF A SW COMPONENT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
FOG/STRATUS OUT AND WE WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME CLEARING FROM NW TO
SE LATE THU AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE WARMER
TEMPS OUT WEST WITH SOME CLEARING WHILE THE EAST REMAINS COLDER
AND SOCKED IN MUCH OF THU. -WRIGHT

DAYS 3-7...

THE PREVAILING LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND
MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS IN BETWEEN.  IN THE SYNOPTIC DAILIES...THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES IN THIS PATTERN...AS INDIVIDUAL JET
STREAKS ROTATE THROUGH AND INFLUENCE THE BACKGROUND PATTERN TO SOME
DEGREE...BUT THIS IS FAR FROM A WET PATTERN FOR WESTERN
KANSAS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  A MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY WHICH WILL INFLUENCE SUNDAY HIGHS.
HAVE LOWERED THE GOING HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S FOR SUNDAY DESPITE
THERE LIKELY BEING AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF INSOLATION.  WILL WARM
UP EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS CANADIAN HIGH...WITH TUESDAY
AND/OR WEDNESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY SWEEP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THE ORDER OF NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY (DAY 8 OR 9 TIME FRAME).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   8  27  20  35 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   8  27  21  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  14  29  22  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  13  28  21  40 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   7  27  19  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28   8  28  21  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$