RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000 FXUS63 KDDC 202133 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 333 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE WINDS ON SATURDAY AND HOW FAR WEST THE STRATUS MOVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING THEN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY. A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS COMBINED WITH A WEAKER NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT BUT MAY SPREAD SOME CLOUDINESS INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA BEFORE MOVING OUT. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THEN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DRAW BETTER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO STRATUS FORMATION, HOWEVER WESTERN EXTENT IS THE QUESTION. THE WRF SHOWS THE FARTHEST WEST TOWARDS GARDEN CITY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE COULD CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY FAR EAST AND WILL LEAVE A VERY LOW POP EAST TO COVER. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY MINIMAL WITH A GOOD CAPPING INVERSION FOR SUNDAY AND A LACK OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT AND INCREASING. SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAR WEST BY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE WARMEST IN THE MID 30S AROUND MEDICINE LODGE WITH THE BETTER DEWPOINTS. ON SATURDAY LOOK FOR INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGHS WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD MAKE IT TO AROUND 60 DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS CLOUDS GET. THEN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR INCREASING STRATUS CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FA AS HIGH CLOUDINESS PUSHES EAST. WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND STAY IN THE 15 TO 22 MPH RANGE. FOR SUNDAY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST. DAYS 3-7... THE FOCUS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST STILL REMAIN WITH THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITES STATES AND INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN/PLAINS REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND WHAT RESULTING IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LAST 2 DAYS WORTH OF OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN KEEPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY OR CYCLOGENESIS INDUCED FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AN MONDAY, TO THE NORTH OF OUR IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA. THIS MORNING`S 12 UTC GFS WAS NOT SURPRISING AND FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH REMAINING THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST NORTH MODEL, NOT TO MENTION WEAKEST SOLUTION, WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORED A SLIGHTLY DEEPER AND MORE INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPMENT. OVERALL, THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGUN WITH A STRONGER SURFACE WIND FORECAST FOR MONDAY AS A SURFACE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH IN THE MORNING, AND PERHAPS CLEAR THE KS/OK LINE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT. AS WELL, WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED, WE TRIMMED HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH ABOUT A 10 DEGREES DIURNAL HIGH, WITH TEMPERATURES BY AFTERNOON IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE, HOWEVER, THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A DEEP LAYER DRY INTRUSION HAVING THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION. ONLY THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION OF ECMWF PREDICTS LIGHT PRECIPITATION/QPF AMOUNTS IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. A LOOK AT THE ECMWF`S THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATES MARGINALLY COLD 850 MB AIR IN THE DRY CONVEYOR BELT WHILE 1000-500 MB CRITICAL THICKNESS REACH THE 540 DM LINE ONCE THE DEFORMATION AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST FORM TEH CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, WE HAVE KEPT WITH 10-20 POPS FOR RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY EVENING, WHEN A MENTION OF SCATTERED SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES SEEMS APPROPRIATE. IN THE TIMEFRAME BEYOND, A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHWARD INFLUENCING HE PLAINS STATES. ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 DEG C TO -8 DEG C RANGE WOULD SUPPORT STICKING WITH BELOW CLIMATOLOGY HIGHS AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER INTO LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERALL, THE FORECAST WAS HEDGED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 32 60 38 53 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 30 60 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 33 61 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 31 62 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 29 58 37 53 / 0 10 10 10 P28 40 60 43 58 / 0 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN06/33
