Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 291922
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
222 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Atmosphere slowly recovering once again early this afternoon,
after last night`s MCS. Easterly component to surface winds
maintaining dewpoints in the 60s, even as far west as eastern
Colorado. Still, airmass is cooler today, which will reduce CAPE
values. Scattered thunderstorms expected to redevelop this afternoon
across eastern Colorado and SW KS, mainly west of Dodge City. The
severe weather threat is low, but not zero. Healthy NW flow aloft
persists, and with easterly boundary layer flow, bulk shear is
sufficient for marginally severe hail/wind. As expected,
temperatures remaining well below normal this afternoon courtesy of
clouds and easterly winds. NAM swings an additional shortwave
embedded in the NW flow through SW KS overnight, with another round
of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Increased pop grids some for
this expectation. Expecting this round of rain to be wrapping up
across the SE zones around sunrise Saturday, with low stratus clouds
covering much of SW KS.

Saturday...Warmer, but still several degrees below normal for late
July. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s at Hays to
the mid 90s at Liberal. Kept isolated showers/thunder in the grids
for the SE 1/2 of the CWA, but coverage appears minimal and most
outdoor activities will be unaffected. Expect SE winds to prevail
Saturday afternoon at 15-25 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Sunday and Monday...Dry and warmer. Atmosphere warms with rising
heights each day. As has been the case this summer, afternoon
temperatures will fall well short of 12z MEX guidance (100s).
Standing water and green vegetation will ensure max temps will
remain in the 90s for most locales.

Tuesday through Friday...Rain and thunderstorm chances will return
to SW KS. This will be especially true for the NW zones, as upper
high pressure establishes to the SE of SW KS. The resultant SW
flow aloft is progged by medium range models to direct monsoonal
moisture into the central plains. 12z ECMWF suggests daily
convection firing across NE New Mexico near Raton Pass and moving
NE into SW KS. Highs in the 90s will continue, gradually cooling a
degree or two each day as moisture quality increases.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Broken clouds and isolated rain showers early this afternoon.
Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to
redevelop this afternoon. Model convective/QPF is quite varied, so
kept TEMPO groups out of the 18z TAFs, and included only VCTS/CB
or VCSH for now. Another weak shortwave in NW flow aloft
forecasted to produce another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the 06-12z Sat timeframe, best shown by the
12z NAM. After this second round of convection, consensus of short
term models suggests a round of IFR stratus near sunrise Saturday.
Lowered cigs to near 500 ft AGL for DDC/GCK around 12z Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  65  89  70 /  30  40  20  20
GCK  83  64  89  68 /  30  30  20  20
EHA  87  65  95  68 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  87  67  96  70 /  40  30  20  10
HYS  84  65  87  68 /  30  30  20  30
P28  86  69  91  72 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner



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