Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 192300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Southwesterly mid to high level flow was increasing across the
plains ahead of a shortwave trough. Ridging has moved into
Mississippi Valley. This system will interact with low pressure
in Eastern Colorado, in addition to a surface high over the
Tennessee Valley. This will in turn strengthen the pressure
gradient over Western Kansas and create gusty conditions through
Friday night. Increasing moisture and gusty wind will cause lows
tonight to stay in the mid to lower 50s. Tomorrow morning, a
series of H5 vorticity maxs flow into Southwest Kansas. While
instability is minimal, H85 moisture continues to increase
throughout the region. Confidence is low, but agreed with
neighboring offices to leave small POPs in the forecast for rain
showers east of Meade/La Crosse line. High on Friday will reach
80s to the west and mid- 70s toward Central Kansas due to an
increase in cloud cover tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Wind will continue to gust Friday night through Saturday. The low
in Eastern Colorado, and attendant cold front, starts to move
east ahead of a high amplitude trough that will affect our region
on Saturday. Moisture/clouds also increase Friday toward the
eastern half of our CWA. Modest elevated instability, combined
with upper level difluent flow and the aforementioned vorticity
maxs that continue to enter SW Kansas, will create a slight
chance for showers toward Central Kansas.

The better chance for thunderstorms will still be Saturday thanks
to the upper level trough and attendant cold front. The strong
upper level jet will run into sufficient gulf moisture ahead of
the front. With high temperatures and instability decent for
October standards, storms that form will quickly develop into a
squall line. The best chances for severe weather will be toward
central Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. Regardless, a region east of
a Hays to Ashland line will have the chance for precipitation
Saturday afternoon/evening depending on the speed the front meets
the moisture and instability. Storms that form could become
strong to severe with small hail, and wind gusts as high as 60
mph. High temperatures for Saturday will range from mid 60s to mid
70s. Lows on Saturday night will range from lower 40s to lower
60s.

A dry regime fills in for the remainder of the long term. Sunday
after the front moves east, surface high pressure moves in. The
next cold front will come through Monday, however with lacking
moisture, the region will stay dry. This process repeats itself
Tuesday as high pressure fills in, and another dry cold front
moves through Thursday. Temperatures will become mostly normal for
this time of the year, with the chance for near-freezing
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR will continue through this TAF forecast cycle. Widespread
cirrus seen currently will continue to thicken overnight as a
series of vorticity maxima approach SW KS from New Mexico. NAM
develops a respectable low level jet overnight by 06z Fri (50 kts
at 850 mb), which will keep southerly surface winds elevated and
create LLWS at the terminals. After 15z Friday, very strong south
winds will impact aviation operations at all airports, averaging
20-30 kts with gusts near 40 kts. After 18z Friday, there may be
some weak convection (sprinkles, virga) mainly SE of the airports,
but included no mention of convection in the TAFs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  78  59  69 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  56  81  53  66 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  52  80  51  65 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  54  81  57  69 /   0  10  20   0
HYS  58  78  60  67 /   0  10  10  20
P28  58  76  64  75 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Turner



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