Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 282315
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
615 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Mid afternoon surface map and clear-air radar returns showed a
frontal zone across southwest KS from roughly Liberal to near Dodge
City to near Hays. This front had pretty much stalled out with
afternoon heating. Mid level temperatures were quite warm, so the
atmosphere will likely remain capped to surface-based convection
along this front, with the exception being up around Hays. The HRRR
runs today were showing attempts at convection along the front, but
not until after 00z. The 03-06z time frame will be of most interest,
as the nocturnal LLJ will be ramping up significantly in advance of
the shortwave trough moving into Wyoming this afternoon. The speed
convergence around 850mb will increase quite a bit, and this will be
the primary focus for convection after dark. The best area, though,
will be between I-70 and the Nebraska border. Nevertheless, will
have some 40-50 POPs across central and northern Trego and Ellis
County. POPs will taper off quite a bit south of there down to K96.
Fresh convection that develops at the nose of the LLJ with
uninterrupted inflow will be capable of some large hail to half
dollar size and some 60 mph winds.

Thursday is now looking more complicated that previously thought
regarding severe weather across our neck of the woods. Models are
now showing the main surface low pushing well off to the east
earlier, out near Russel or Great Bend by 21z, with a trailing
boundary southwest from there to another weak surface low in the
northern Panhandles in the dry air. We will have to watch for post-
frontal moisture sneaking back west into far southeast/east central
CO, and this may actually be the best shot for severe convection to
develop and mature into southwest KS. This would be very late,
though, most likely late evening around or after midnight. A general
20-30 POPs is forecast given the uncertainty in placement and timing
of most coherent convection.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

After a couple of cooler days Friday and Saturday with highs in the
80s, we will warm back up Sunday and beyond back into the 90s. POPs
will be back in the forecast Sunday Night and Monday Night as weak
northwest flow aloft will be found across western KS. There is still
some question about how far west adequate moisture will be, so most
of the higher POPs during this time frame will be across eastern
half of the forecast area. By mid-week, subtropical ridge will start
to build in across the Four Corners region which would lead to drier
and hotter weather. The latest ECMWF really shows the 500mb ridge
building in across the region by Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Models late today remain in good agreement with a cluster of
thunderstorms crossing northern Kansas overnight. As these storms
cross north central Kansas around the Hays area between 03z and
09z Thursday a surface boundary/outflow will cross southwest
Kansas resulting in a shift in the wind Thursday morning. Models
differ on how far south this boundary will move with the NAM being
the more aggressive. The NAM also suggests a brief period of MVFR
ceiling behind this boundary between 12z and 18z Thursday. At
this time will favor the more further north solutions and as a
result keep VFR conditions at all TAF sites overnight with a deck
of 8000 to 12000 ft AGL ceilings being possible Thursday morning.
Southerly winds at 15 to near 20 knots can be expected overnight
as a low level jet develops. The NAM and GFS indicate 50 knots in
the 900mb to 850mb level by 06z Thursday so a wind shear group
still appears warranted.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  96  65  84 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  65  95  63  82 /  10  10  20  10
EHA  63  98  62  82 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  67 100  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  67  92  63  82 /  50  10  30  20
P28  72  98  69  87 /   0   0  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert



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