Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241130

630 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

For the remainder of tonight into early this morning, the
aforementioned 700-500-hPa circulation will shift slowly east into
central Kansas. On the back side of this low a TROWAL axis and
resultant area of frontogenesis will permit the area of light rain
along the Colorado border, to follow the wave into central Kansas.
This will result in a few sprinkles although a few locations may measure
a few hundredths of an inch. In addition, the surface pressure
gradient will remain tight enough to bring gusty north to northwest
winds of 20 to 30 mph through early afternoon.

The pattern will then turn very quiet by late afternoon as the
aforementioned closed 700-500-hPa circulation, shifts east into the
mid Mississippi River valley.  Behind this wave strong subsidence
will spread across western and central Kansas with a resultant clear
sky prevailing this afternoon. This will permit deep thermal mixing
up to 700 hPa with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the
lower to mid 70s.

A benign evening to overnight will then dominate cross the Central
High Plains as surface high pressure ridges into Kansas.  This will
allow winds to ease quickly during the afternoon hours with light
winds and a clear sky bringing cool temperatures.  Temperatures will
bottom out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)

There is a good chance there will be some severe weather on Saturday
late afternoon and evening, east of a dry-line that will set up and
march into our eastern zones.  By 21z or so Saturday, there will be
plenty of upper lift from an upper trough/wave over Nevada, with a
surface low over northwestern Kansas.  A cold front will be to the
west, with a dry-line forming in the western Kansas by noon, and
moving into the highway 183 by 21Z or so.  Those ingredients will be
enough for some strong storms capable of large hail and even
possibly a few tornadoes. It will also get quite warm Saturday,
due to strong warm air advection from the south.  Our southern
border with Oklahoma will reach the lower 90s, while the area north
of I-70 will top out around 80 degrees. Furthermore, the tight
pressure gradient will produce strong south to southwest winds,
and a fire weather product will likely be needed, for about our
western half of our forecast area.  For now, since Saturday is 3
days out, I will wait at least one more day/shift before putting a
fire weather watch out. Precipitation chances will linger through
Saturday night, with upper support still overhead. On Sunday, the
higher level dew points in our east, and with the front nearly
stationary in our north, will both warrant low chance pops for
showers and thunderstorms, but they will not likely be in the
severe category.

On Monday, that front will come back south as a cold front, and with
a little more cold air behind it, and Monday will get windy
behind the frontal passage.  There could be a few showers Monday
afternoon in our northern CWA, near and along the front, and
showers will spread south Monday night and Tuesday.  Monday night
will chill into the upper 30s in the Syracuse, Scott City and
Garden City areas, and range to the mid 40s in the Medicine Lodge
areas. Tuesday also looks very windy as the gradient behind the
front strengthens.  Unfortunately for many southwest Kansans, it
may be even colder on Tuesday night and Wednesday night, as the
cold air mass will be settling further south and west.  The upper
30s and perhaps even a few mid 30s may occur in far western Kansas
both Tuesday night/Wednesday night.  Frost conditions will have to
be monitored as those time frames gets closer.

The upper trough/low should be east of us by Tuesday, and the
precipitation chances will diminish.  Max temps will average in the
lower to mid 60s for Tue, Wed, and Thur.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)

Now that the cold front is plunging southward through Oklahoma,
surface high pressure will build in. The precipitation has ended
and nearly cloud free skies will result by 15z. Some of the Taf
sites have already clear out (KDDC and KHYS), and KGCK will likely
clear out as well. There is still a pressure gradient across the
area, and northwest winds will increase into the 17g25kt range
this morning. Winds will settle down towards sunset, and blow at 8
to 10 knots through Thursday night.


DDC  70  45  84  54 /  20   0   0   0
GCK  70  43  84  50 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  70  46  85  52 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  72  44  86  53 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  70  43  81  51 /  20   0   0   0
P28  72  46  85  58 /  20   0   0   0




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