Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 252321
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Thunderstorms are likely across portions of western and central
Kansas tonight as short range models indicate an attendant frontal
boundary to the closed off upper low to our north pushing further
southeast across southwest and central Kansas during the period.
Although the flow aloft will remain fairly weak across the Western
High Plains, substantial moisture/instability, increased forcing in
conjunction with the frontal boundary, and steepening low/mid level
lapse rates ahead of the boundary will be sufficient ingredients to
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development early
this evening. NAM/GFS model soundings show a fair amount of
instability with SBCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/KG ahead of
the frontal boundary. However, the weak flow aloft and less than
favorable 0-6km shear will hinder storm intensity, hence, lessening
the severe potential to marginal levels. Another issue to consider
will be the potential for localized flooding as weak steering winds
and high PW values in excess of 1.5 inches may lead to periods of
locally heavy rainfall.

Areas of precip and slightly cooler air filtering southward into
western Kansas behind the advancing weak frontal boundary will drop
lows down into the 60s(F) tonight with a few lower 70s(F) still
possible in south central Kansas. Western and central Kansas will be
under the influence of an easterly upslope flow north of a frontal
boundary Sunday as it pushes further south into Oklahoma. This will
limit climbing temperatures through the day with highs struggling
to reach 90F is some locations, if at all.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Even though the flow aloft will remain fairly weak early in the period,
thunderstorm chances will continue into early next week as medium range
models indicate the front from the passage late Saturday stalling out
generally across the Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma by Sunday
evening. Barring the positioning of the frontal boundary, a similar
set up from the day before will be present with increased forcing
near the boundary and ample moisture/instability along and southeast
of the boundary itself. Thunderstorms are likely Sunday evening in
the vicinity of the boundary with the best chance for precip across
south central Kansas. Thunderstorm chances return to portions of
western Kansas late Monday as a southeasterly upslope flow re-
establishes across the Western High Plains. Increasing instability
with moisture drawing back to the west and steep low/mid level lapse
rates will set the stage for thunderstorm development lee of the
Rocky Front Range Monday afternoon with the possibility of storms
drifting eastward into western Kansas Monday night. A similar set
up exists Tuesday as a northwest flow aloft develops across the
high plains while a southeasterly upslope flow persists in the
lower levels. Considering little change is expected to the general
air mass through the middle of next week, look for more seasonal
temperatures for lows and highs across the Western High Plains
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A cold front moving through the area will bring a chance of
thunderstorms and periods of MVFR conditions to the TAF sites this
evening into the early overnight period. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions. Winds will generally be from the south to southeast
ahead of this front shifting to more of a northerly direction
behind the front. Gusty winds will also be possible under some of
the previously mentioned storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  89  68  91 /  50  30  30  30
GCK  65  88  67  90 /  70  20  20  30
EHA  65  87  66  90 /  60  30  20  30
LBL  67  89  67  91 /  50  30  30  30
HYS  67  88  68  91 /  70  20  20  20
P28  70  92  70  92 /  30  50  50  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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