Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 311743
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Northerly upper level flow was dominating the region early Thursday
with a deep trough over the Great Lakes and broad ridging over
much of the western CONUS. Within this northerly flow are
intermittent weak short wave troughs which will bring periods of
increased ascent to the forecast area. The troposphere is rather dry
though, and widespread precipitation will be hard to come by. In the
short term, the best chance for precip appears to be in the form of
a few sprinkles tonight mainly across northern Kansas as a wave
moves from the eastern Dakotas down the Missouri River valley. Most
of the lift with this wave will likely go toward cloud production
but weak elevated instability could allow a few showers to
develop...although the dry air in the low levels should favor
sprinkles if anything does develop. Outside of that late chance for
sprinkles, the short term period looks dry with slightly warmer
temperatures in the lower to middle 80s owing mainly to more
sunshine than Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the lower 60s as
cloud cover increases after dark. Winds will be light and generally
out of the southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Upper air pattern in the extended forecast carries a persistent
trend seen in previous days. From Friday through Tuesday, strong
upper ridging holds across the western CONUS as the main upper
trough digs southward through the Midwest. During this period, weak
perturbations extending southward through the plains and Missouri
river valley attempt to produce isolated amounts of QPF throughout
the central plains. Sampling atmospheric profiles around the CWA
reveal shallow saturation columns with little to no amount of
lifting to coincide. An increase in mid and high level clouds
appears more likely with a dry forecast in place. Influence from a
developing surface trough over the western high plains will shift
sfc winds towards the south and southwest by Sunday. Increasing warm
advection and more optimal boundary layer mixing aids in highs coming
back from the 80s on Friday and Saturday, into the low 90s through
Wednesday.

The next system and chance of thunderstorms arrives on Tuesday
evening into Wednesday. At this time, latest GFS/ECMWF are beginning
to line up in terms of timing of the wave and attendant cold front
dropping southeast through the CWA Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
Of course plenty of details to iron out, but it does appear to be
the best shot for measurable precipitation over the next several
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Vfr conditions will continue through the period. After stratocu
field clears towards 01z...mid level clouds around 10 kft will
increase after 02z...but expect any precip at this point to remain
to the north of the terminals. Light southeast winds will slowly
veer aft 09z but generally remain under 5 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Bowen
AVIATION...63






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