Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 011757

National Weather Service Topeka KS
1257 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

An upper low across northwest KS will slowly drift northeast into
southeast NE by 12Z SUN. Most of the ascent ahead of the upper low
will remain north of the CWA but there may be enough lift for
occasional showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms. MUCAPE
will be less than 300 J/KG...thus any thunderstorm that manages to
develop will be weak. The northern terr counties across the CWA will
see the best chance for scattered showers. Along and south of I-70
may stay dry through the day. Surface winds will become west-
southwesterly through the morning hours then veer more to the west-
northwest by late afternoon. Highs Today will be cool once again
with most areas across the CWA only getting into the 50s. The
eastern counties may see mid to upper 60s with southwest surface
winds remaining for much of the afternoon hours. If there are breaks
in the overcast highs could be slightly warmer.

Tonight, as the upper low moves northeast across the far norther
counties of the CWA into southeast NE there could be some residual
moisture that wraps around the vertically stacked surface/850mb/H5
low which could cause isolated showers to develop southward towards
I-70 after midnight.|

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

By Monday, an upper level trough will be located directly over
northeast Kansas bringing slight chances for very light scattered
rain showers for most of the area that afternoon.  Lift and
saturation begin to decrease that evening, ending chances for any
further precipitation into Monday night.  The trough begins shift
southeast Tuesday, however, as it passes models indicate the best
moisture remains either northwest or southeast of the area so have
kept the forecast dry for this timeframe.  From here, surface high
pressure and upper level riding keep conditions quiet through
Friday.  Temperatures look to stay fairly steady though the week
with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the mid to upper 40s.
Next chances for precipitation begin Friday night when a expansive
upper level trough moves over the western US ejecting a series of
waves across the area.  With models indicating a decent amount of
instability and moisture across the area, thunderstorms will be
likely.  Southerly winds Friday through Sunday help to warm
temperatures slightly back into the mid and upper 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MVFR cigs are expected to continue at MHK through the overnight
hours. MVFR cigs will return to the Topeka terminals by 20Z and
continue throughout the overnight hours.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Baerg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.